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Examining the Yoon Administration's Foreign Policy over the Past Two Years

Junya Nishino

Introduction.

Two years have passed since President Yoon Suk-yeol took office in May 2022. Since then, President Yoon has had difficulties in domestic politics due to the parliamentary configuration of "small government vs. big opposition" and low approval ratings. Because of the ruling party's crushing defeat in the April 2024 general election, the Yoon administration will no doubt continue finding itself in a difficult position during its remaining term of less than three years. On the other hand, as far as its diplomacy is concerned, the Yoon administration has since the outset been strengthening the US-ROK alliance and improving Japan-ROK relations; it has pursued expanding South Korea's role in the global community under the diplomatic vision of becoming a "global pivotal state." This article aims to provide an overview and assessment of the Yoon administration's diplomacy in the past two years, while analysis regarding Japan-ROK relations and trilateral cooperation between Japan, ROK, and the United States will be addressed in separate articles within this special feature.

Proactive Diplomacy on the Global Stage

During the presidential election campaign of 2022, then-presidential candidate Yoon Suk-yeol argued that, "South Korea should no longer be confined to the Korean Peninsula but rise to the challenge of being what I have described as a ‘global pivotal state', one that advances freedom, peace, and prosperity through liberal democratic values and substantial cooperation." (From his February 2022 article contributed to the Foreign Affairs magazine.) The "National Security Strategy," released in June 2023, after the inauguration of his administration, was subtitled "Global Pivotal State for Freedom, Peace and Prosperity." With this idea of "GPS" as a diplomatic compass, the Yoon administration has been actively advancing global-oriented diplomacy.

The Yoon administration's first move that drew attention was announcing the Indo-Pacific strategy. It was in the late 2010s that the United States and Japan began to promote their Indo-Pacific strategy, for which Japan coined the watchword "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" (FOIP). The then-Moon Jae-in administration hesitated to formulate a Korean version of the Indo-Pacific strategy that could be perceived as encircling China. In contrast, the Yoon administration aimed to formulate its Indo-Pacific strategy from the outset. In November 2022, President Yoon announced his Indo-Pacific strategy in a speech at the ROK-ASEAN Summit held in Cambodia; in December, the South Korean government published a booklet titled "Indo-Pacific Strategy for Freedom, Peace, and Prosperity," which provides an overall summary of the strategy. A year later, in December 2023, the "Action Plan of the Republic of Korea for a Free, Peaceful, Prosperous Indo-Pacific," was released.

The strategy and the action plan, sharing the same orientation as the Biden administration's Indo-Pacific Strategy (October 2022) and the Kishida administration's New Plan for the FOIP (March 2023), have significantly promoted the strategic partnership among the three countries. This is apparent from a document adopted at the August 2023 US-Japan-ROK summit meeting at Camp David, in which the three countries defined themselves as Indo-Pacific nations and agreed to expand cooperation across the Indo-Pacific and beyond.

The second new development in South Korean foreign policy under the Yoon administration is the establishment of cooperative relations with NATO. This move aligns with the Yoon administration's emphasis on liberal values. The fact that NATO has also increased its interest in the Indo-Pacific region, as seen in, among other signs, the new "Strategic Concept" it adopted in 2022, emphasizing its relations with Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand, known as the AP4, has led to promoting ROK-NATO relations. President Yoon attended NATO summits in Madrid in June 2022 and Vilnius in July 2023; he will also participate in the July 2024 meeting in Washington D.C. Before these events, in November 2022, South Korea's Diplomatic Mission to NATO was established and began its activities.

The Yoon administration is also proactive in diplomacy with the Global South countries. In May 2023, South Korea held its first summit meeting with Pacific Island nations, and in June 2024, it hosted the ROK-Africa Summit in Seoul, inviting the leaders of 48 African countries. This was the first meeting of its kind in South Korea. The country is strengthening its relationship with African countries using official development aid as leverage.

Three Key Features of Yoon's Diplomacy

Reflecting on the diplomatic efforts of the Yoon administration over the past two years, the following features can be highlighted:

Firstly, there is a strong emphasis on what is known as "value-based diplomacy." This approach aligns closely with Japan's past concept of the "Arc of Freedom and Prosperity" and its current "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" initiative. In the preface of the "National Security Strategy," President Yoon stressed the need to "actively address the rapidly evolving security environment" "as a global pivotal state grounded in the spirit of freedom and solidarity" based on the recognition that "[c]lashes of values, ideas, and interests around the globe are shaking the existing world order based on rules and principles." In his inaugural address, President Yoon referred to "freedom" as many as 35 times; he stressed the importance of universal values such as freedom, democracy, and human rights at every opportunity. In March 2024, South Korea hosted the third meeting of the Democracy Summit, initiated by the Biden administration in 2021. As this event exemplifies, President Yoon's emphasis on universal values is evident in his diplomatic efforts. Of course, it might be better to consider these efforts by South Korea as intended to underscore its superiority and legitimacy in the international community, with North Korea's political system in mind that pays no respect to such values.

Secondly, Yoon's diplomacy is characterized by "strategic clarity," particularly in the context of U.S.-China strategic competition, where it aims to strengthen a robust alliance relationship with the United States. In a contribution to the Foreign Affairs magazine, then-presidential candidate Yoon criticized the Moon Jae-in administration's diplomatic stance as strategically ambiguous, particularly amidst heightened tensions between the United States and China. Yoon advocated for the establishment of a "Comprehensive Strategic Alliance" with the United States. This direction was affirmed in joint statements such as the U.S.-ROK Leaders' Joint Statement shortly after Yoon took office in May 2022 and the U.S.-ROK 70th Anniversary Commemorative Joint Statement during President Yoon's state visit to the United States in April 2023, confirming the progression of bilateral relations towards a "Global Comprehensive Strategic Alliance."

Concurrently, Yoon's administration has maintained its pledge to build a relationship with China based on "mutual respect," as outlined in his presidential election campaign. While aiming to enhance strategic communication with China in the June 2023 "National Security Strategy," Yoon reiterated a consistent stance of resolute response based on national interests and principles concerning issues involving national sovereignty.

Thirdly, Yoon's diplomacy emphasizes strengthening defense capabilities and deterrence under the principle of "peace through strength." In contrast to the Moon administration's emphasis on reconciliation and dialogue with North Korea, the Yoon administration prioritizes enhancing defense and deterrence capabilities against North Korea's increasing nuclear and missile capabilities. Specifically, Yoon administration has prioritized the construction of what is known as the "Three-axis System," as one of its national policy agendas: (1) preemptive strike capability dubbed "Kill Chain," (2) the Korea Advanced Missile Defense (KAMD) system, and (3) Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation (KMPR) capability. It was the Park Geun-hye administration that decided on the introduction of this Three-Axis system. Yoon criticized before he took presidential office that the Moon administration had hampered this move.

Furthermore, Yoon's administration has focused on enhancing extended deterrence within the U.S.-ROK alliance. The "Washington Declaration," announced during President Yoon's state visit to the United States, exemplifies this effort. This declaration clarifies the United States' commitment to South Korea's defense amidst increasing concerns about the reliability of U.S. extended deterrence in South Korea, specifying regular deployments of U.S. strategic assets to areas surrounding South Korea, including the port calls to South Korea of nuclear submarines capable of carrying nuclear weapons.

Additionally, the "Washington Declaration" decided to establish a new framework for U.S.-ROK "Nuclear Consultation Group" (NCG) to enable South Korea's involvement in U.S. nuclear operations. The third NCG meeting in June 2024 discussed joint guidelines for integrating South Korea's conventional forces with U.S. nuclear capabilities to respond to potential nuclear attacks by North Korea. Both countries plan to conduct joint military exercises, including responses to North Korea's nuclear use, in August 2024.

Shift from the Moon Administration and the Continuity of Korean Diplomacy

The diplomatic trajectory of the Yoon administration stands in stark contrast to that of the Moon Jae-in administration and previous progressive governments, largely due to differences between conservative and progressive camps in South Korean politics. During the Moon administration, the "Korean Peninsula Peace Process" aimed at inter-Korean reconciliation faltered in the face of North Korea's enhancement of its nuclear and missile capabilities. In response, the Yoon administration is strengthening its defense and deterrence capabilities by deepening the US-ROK alliance as well as by promoting "minilateralism" cooperation with like-minded countries, represented by the trilateral cooperation between the United States, Japan, and South Korea.

Initially keen on joining the Quad (U.S., Japan, Australia, India), South Korea encountered Japan's reluctance and perceived challenges in maintaining Quad cohesion due to India's involvement. Consequently, the Yoon administration shifted focus towards strengthening cooperation among Japan, the United States, and South Korea. This shift in focus saw promising developments under the leadership of the Biden administration, notably with trilateral summits held during the NATO Summit in Madrid in June and in Phnom Penh in November, where leaders of Japan, the United States, and South Korea issued a joint statement that the three countries would share real-time North Korean missile warning data. This real-time sharing mechanism started operation at the end of 2023.

Central to advancing this trilateral cooperation was the imperative to address long-standing tensions in Japan-ROK relations. The Yoon administration was acutely aware of the need for reconciliation. In other words, for the Yoon administration, deepening the US-ROK alliance, improving Japan-ROK relations, and developing Japan-US-ROK cooperation were a single-packaged policy; from the outset, there was a kind of strategic thinking permeating the Yoon administration's diplomacy that sought to link these three elements organically together. On reflection, this was also the reason for the Yoon administration's efforts to rush to improve Japan-ROK relations. The announcement by the South Korean government in March 2023 of a solution to the wartime labor issue (a third-party reimbursement plan) and President Yoon's visit to Japan following it; President Yoon's state visit to the United States in April; the restoration of Japan-ROK shuttle diplomacy through Prime Minister Kishida's visit to South Korea in May; and the August 2023 Japan-US-ROK summit at Camp David. It is no exaggeration to say that these series of events are the outcomes of the proactive and positive diplomatic efforts of the Yoon administration.

As noted above, the Yoon administration's foreign policy, depicted as "strategic clarity," is considered to be an antithesis to the Moon administration's foreign policy. However, it is more than that. The worsening of Korean people's sentiment toward China following its economic retaliation to counter the deployment of THAAD in South Korea in 2017 and the volatile international situations due to Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine encouraged South Korea to pursue its foreign policy of placing greater emphasis on its alliance with the United States and taking a consistent and principled stance toward China. Furthermore, given the goal of securing its strategic clarity and in response to economic coercion by China, the Yoon administration has also focused on economic security initiatives through, for example, joining the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) and keeping pace with US moves to strengthen supply chains. As soon as the Yoon administration took office, a new post, Secretary to the President for Economic Security, was created under the First Deputy Director of the National Security Office; in January 2022, the new post was elevated to that of the Third Deputy Director in charge of economic security.

While Yoon's diplomatic approach is often framed as a stark contrast to the Moon administration's policies, it also demonstrates continuity in South Korean diplomacy regardless of whether the government leans conservative or progressive. Two key aspects highlight this continuity:

Firstly, there is a notable confidence and assertiveness in South Korea's role on the global stage, manifesting in Yoon's administration vision of a "Global Pivot State." This vision underscores South Korea's increasing political and economic significance internationally, including discussions about South Korea's potential inclusion in the G7 summits. In fact, South Korea was invited to the G7 meetings in 2020, 2021, and 2023, when the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan held the chair country—it was not invited to the meetings in 2022 and 2024 when Germany and Italy assumed the chair country. On the other hand, South Korea's self-positivity tended to take the form of the projection of nationalism under the Moon administration. For example, in response to Japan's export restrictions on semiconductor materials in July 2019, President Moon declared that "we will never lose to Japan again" and promoted domestic production of chip materials. In contrast, under the Yoon administration, Koreans' confidence and pride are working as a motor force to advance internationalism-oriented foreign policy.

Secondly, efforts to diversify South Korea's external economic relations to reduce over-reliance on China have been evident since the Moon administration's introduction of the "New Southern Policy," emphasizing relations with ASEAN and India across areas of People, Peace, and Prosperity (three P's). Economic pressure from China following the THAAD deployment in 2017 spurred proactive measures in promoting economic cooperation with ASEAN and India during the Moon administration. Yoon's administration effectively continued and adapted this policy under the "Korea-ASEAN Solidarity Initiative" within the context of the Indo-Pacific strategy. This framework positions ASEAN as a strategic pivot connecting the Pacific and Indian Oceans, highlighting mutual strategic partnerships and enhanced security cooperation.

Furthermore, given the economic coercion experienced from China, Yoon's administration sought to bolster preparations for joint responses with the United States, enhancing the U.S.-ROK alliance and trilateral cooperation with Japan and the United States. Its bitter experience associated with the deployment of THAAD in 2017 left South Korea seeking reassuring support from the United States against potential Chinese economic coercion.

Conclusion.

The remaining three years of the Yoon administration's term will fundamentally maintain the direction of foreign policy as outlined in this article. However, amidst the polarization of South Korean politics between conservative and progressive factions, the overwhelming victory of the opposition in the April 2024 elections suggests that Yoon's foreign policy will face even harsher scrutiny domestically. The defining features of Yoon's diplomacy— "value-based diplomacy," "strategic clarity," and "peace through strength"— have all drawn strong opposition from the opposition parties. In particular, the escalating tensions in inter-Korean relations and the strengthening of trilateral cooperation among Japan, the United States, and ROK have been criticized for creating a bloc-oriented division reminiscent of the Cold War era.

In addressing these criticisms and contemplating the future of Yoon's diplomacy based on past developments, the setting of relations with China will be crucial. The successful hosting of the Japan-China-South Korea summit in May 2024 as the chair country was a significant achievement in this regard. Another critical element will be the outcome of the U.S. presidential election in November 2024. If the Trump administration returns to power, it could pose significant challenge for Yoon's foreign policy, which prioritizes a tough stance on North Korea and emphasizes the U.S.-ROK alliance. Should this scenario unfold, the Yoon administration may find itself devoting more time to alliance management. Nevertheless, its proactive role on the global stage is likely to continue to be pursued in diplomacy.

(Professor, Keio University)

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