SSDP

How Would North Korea and China Use Nuclear Weapons?
Scenarios for Discussion

Narushige Michishita

This article presents some scenarios in which North Korea and China use nuclear weapons. It outlines the objectives, means, locations, targets, expected damage, and limits, as well as possible negative effects of different types of nuclear weapons use. The descriptions and assessments of those scenarios are based entirely on the author's knowledge and judgments rather than specific evidence. The probability figures assigned to each scenario are defined as the likelihood that the relevant type of nuclear weapons use will take place within the next 20 years. Again, those figures are based on the author's judgment.

This article aims to furnish a common understanding within security communities in concerned countries regarding the scenarios and assessments of nuclear weapons use by North Korea and China. If this article helps bolster discussions on that issue, it will have achieved its purpose. If there is a certain level of consensus on how North Korea and China might use nuclear weapons, the United States, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and other countries in the world can engage in discussions on how to address the nuclear challenges posed by North Korea and China.

With the outbreak of war in Ukraine in 2022 and Russian President Vladimir Putin's suggestion of the possible use of nuclear weapons, the possibility of China's nuclear use in the event of a Cross-Strait conflict is becoming an important topic of discussion in the US security community. However, most of the scenarios discussed in the United States involve China using nuclear weapons against the United States. For example, in a May 2022 paper, Stacy Pettyjohn and Becca Wasser presented a scenario in which China detonates a nuclear weapon off the coast of Hawaii as a threat to prevent US intervention in a Cross-Strait conflict. ¹ In addition, a wargame conducted in the summer of 2022 by the Center for a New American Security showed China conducting an atmospheric nuclear test inside its territory and then attacking a US military base in Guam with a low-yield nuclear weapon. The atmospheric nuclear tests were intended to pose a threat to the United States and to increase the credibility of China's nuclear threats. The attack on Guam was intended to retaliate against a US attack on the Chinese mainland and to force the United States to get out of the war. ²

In reality, however, if North Korea or China are to use nuclear weapons against other countries, it would likely be against South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, which do not possess nuclear weapons. The scenarios presented in this paper assume that North Korea and China would avoid using nuclear weapons against the United States. Understandably, security specialists tend to focus on threats to their own country. In that sense, it would be useful for experts from various countries to present various scenarios of nuclear use from their perspectives and discuss how nuclear weapons might be used, how likely each scenario is, and what kind of countermeasures we might be able to develop.

This article first discusses the current status of North Korea's nuclear and missile capabilities, and lists and evaluates five scenarios for the country's use of nuclear weapons. It will then review China's nuclear and missile capabilities, and lay out three scenarios for China's use of nuclear weapons. I hope that those scenarios will provide a useful basis for future discussions among policymakers and security specialists.

1 North Korea

(1) Nuclear Weapons and Delivery Means

The Institute for Science and International Security based in Washington, DC estimates that North Korea possessed between 35 and 63 nuclear weapons as of December 2022, while the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimates, as of January 2022, that North Korea possessed approximately 20 nuclear weapons and sufficient fissile material for 45 to 55 nuclear devices. ³ In the 12 years following its first detonation test in 2006, North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests, with explosion yield increasing steadily from less than 1 kiloton in the first test to 160 kilotons in the sixth test. ⁴ North Korea has also miniaturized its nuclear weapons and has probably mounted them on ballistic missiles. The sixth North Korean nuclear test appears to have involved a hydrogen bomb, given the dramatic increase in explosion yield over previous tests. North Korea characterized its sixth test as "a test of H-bomb for ICBM [intercontinental ballistic missile]" and "a very significant occasion in attaining the final goal of completing the state nuclear force." ⁵

North Korea maintains some 700 to 1,000 ballistic missiles, of which 45 percent are short-range missiles targeted at South Korea, another 45 percent are medium-range missiles targeted at Japan, and the remaining 10 percent are intermediate- to long-range missiles targeted at the United States. ⁶ Many of those missiles are operated on mobile launchers. ⁷ North Korea continues to develop and test new types of missiles and has steadily improved its missile technology and operational capabilities. In the first half of 2023, Pyongyang also revealed that it was developing and testing unmanned underwater nuclear attack craft, or underwater nuclear drones, called Haeil (Tsunami) 1 (submerged range: 600 kilometers) and Haeil 2 (submerged range: 1000 kilometers). ⁸

(2) Scenarios

Scenario 1: Technological Evaluation and Brinkmanship Diplomacy (Probability: 40%)

As part of a nuclear test and brinkmanship diplomacy, North Korea detonates nuclear weapons underwater in the Sea of Japan and/or in the air over the Pacific Ocean.

Objectives:

Prove the technology and effectiveness of underwater nuclear drones and nuclear-armed ballistic missiles, and make adjustments if necessary;

Enhance the role of nuclear weapons as a diplomatic bargaining chip (Previously North Korea has conducted six underground nuclear tests. Conducting another underground would have limited psychological impact.);

Resume US-North Korea talks and other diplomatic communications;

Discourage foreign submarines from operating near North Korea's coasts.

Means:

Underwater nuclear drones under development;

Intermediate-range ballistic missiles (to reach the Pacific Ocean).

Locations:

Inside North Korea's territorial waters in the Sea of Japan (This allows North Korea to claim it as a legitimate exercise of sovereignty. North Korea understands that conducting a test in the Yellow Sea would upset China, and therefore will avoid this.);

Over the Pacific Ocean in areas without islands or maritime traffic (In 2017, Kim Jong-un mentioned the possibility of taking the "highest level of hard-line countermeasure in history" against the United States. ⁹ Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho later said that the "highest level of hard-line countermeasure" could mean a hydrogen bomb test over the Pacific Ocean.).

Military/Civilian Targets:

None. Demonstrations only.

Expected Damage:

Radiation contamination and environmental destruction; ¹⁰

A potential risk of unintended damage to foreign countries' submarines.

Limits and Negative Effects:

North Korea's underwater nuclear drones malfunction and ballistic missiles get shot down;

Resumption of US-North Korea dialogue becomes even more difficult;

Deterioration in China-North Korea relations;

Additional sanctions are imposed (although their effectiveness will be limited as North Korea is already isolated).

Scenario 2: Hit-and-Run Attacks against South Korea (Probability: 20%)

North Korea conducts serious military attacks such as firing hundreds of artillery shells, rockets, and conventionally-armed missiles against military bases, industrial areas, and major cities in South Korea. North Korea immediately calls for a ceasefire. North Korea threatens to use nuclear weapons and demands that South Korea not retaliate. If South Korea retaliates, North Korea would detonate nuclear bombs underwater and/or in the air and call for an immediate ceasefire.

Objectives:

Escalate to de-escalate;

Gain the upper hand in the inter-Korean competition; (If both sides fire the same amount of artillery, rockets, and missiles at each other, South Korea, which has more to lose, will suffer more in relative terms. Investors could pull their money from South Korea, for example.)

Undermine South Korea's position in the world and teach a "lesson" to conservative South Korean political leaders.

Means:

Underwater nuclear drones;

Short-range ballistic missiles with maneuverable low-yield nuclear warheads (to avoid interception), such as KN-23s, or improved Hwasong-11s.

Location:

Sea of Japan

Military/Civilian Targets:

None. Demonstrations only.

Expected Damage:

Radiation contamination and environmental destruction;

A potential risk of unintended damage to foreign countries' submarines.

Limits and Negative Effects:

North Korea's ballistic missiles malfunction or get shot down;

North Korea becomes unstable as a result of armed conflict;

The United States strengthens its extended nuclear deterrence;

Deterioration in China-North Korea relations;

Further strengthening of South Korea's and Japan's military capabilities, and the rise in their demands for independent nuclear forces.

Scenario 3: Forming a Second Front in a Cross-Strait Conflict (Intra-War Probability: 10%)

A conflict erupts in the Taiwan Strait, and the United States and Japan deploy their forces there. China requests North Korea to conduct limited but sustained strikes against South Korea while promising full military and diplomatic support. In response, North Korea takes limited but sustained military actions against South Korea, including artillery, rocket, and missile attacks. Fearing an escalation of the situation, the United States and South Korea carry out retaliatory strikes against North Korea in a limited fashion. However, as the engagement continues, people in South Korea start to demand a stronger retaliation. In response, North Korea announces, "If South Korea escalates the situation, we will be forced to use nuclear weapons to prevent the war from escalating." If South Korea nevertheless takes strong countermeasures against North Korea, North Korea will detonate a nuclear weapon underwater or in the air in the Sea of Japan off South Korea's east coast, escalating to de-escalate. In this scenario, the probability of North Korea using nuclear weapons is not as high as in the previous scenario because of China's backing and the US and Japan's reluctance to fight a two-front war on the Korean Peninsula and in the Taiwan Strait.

Objectives:

Gain the upper hand in the inter-Korean competition;

Support China by diverting US and Japanese forces away from the Taiwan Strait;

Enhance the effectiveness of China's nuclear coercion against the United States and Japan;

Occupy an advantageous position as China's ally as China unifies Taiwan by force and establishes regional hegemony.

Means:

Underwater nuclear drones;

Short-range ballistic missiles with maneuverable low-yield nuclear warheads.

Location:

Sea of Japan

Military/Civilian Targets:

None.

Expected Damage:

Radiation contamination and environmental destruction;

A potential risk of unintended damage to foreign countries' submarines.

Limits and Negative Effects:

North Korea's nuclear ballistic missile might get shot down;

North Korea becomes unstable as a result of armed conflict;

China might fail to unify Taiwan. (If that happens, China might become unstable domestically and isolated internationally, putting North Korea in a difficult position. In the worst case, it would lead to the collapse of the North Korean regime.)

Scenario 4: Preventing South Korea-led Unification (Probability: 5%)

The political and socioeconomic situation in North Korea deteriorates and South Korea decides to intervene militarily. Pyongyang decides to use low-yield nuclear weapons to prevent South Korean forces from occupying the northern half of the peninsula. (The probability of this scenario is low because South Korea is not likely to intervene forcibly. Not many South Korean citizens desire unification and the risks associated with North Korea's response would be high.)

Objectives:

Prevent Korean unification under the South Korean leadership;

Keep Korea divided and maintain the North Korean regime.

Means:

Short-range ballistic missiles with maneuverable low-yield nuclear warheads.

Locations:

In and near the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ).

Military/Civilian Targets:

South Korean armed forces.

Expected Damage:

Significant damage to South Korean forces and limited collateral damage in both Koreas.

Limits and Negative Effects:

North Korea's nuclear ballistic missiles malfunction or get shot down;

South Korea-led armed unification through a counteroffensive conducted by US and South Korean combined forces.

Scenario 5: Kim's Mass Murder-Suicide (Probability: 3%)

Kim Jong-un faces an imminent regime collapse due to a palace or military coup. Desperate, Kim resorts to self-destruction, conducting all-out nuclear attacks against South Korea, Japan, and the United States, taking them down with him. (The probability of this scenario is very low because Kim Jong-un reaching a state of desperation implies that he has already lost control of his military command.)

Objectives:

Destroy neighboring countries;

Take revenge on South Korea for defeating North Korea's legitimacy, on Japan for its historic colonization of Korea, and on the United States for its "hostile policy" towards Pyongyang.

Means:

All available nuclear forces.

Locations:

South Korea, Japan, and the United States.

Military/Civilian Targets:

Major cities in South Korea, Japan, and the United States.

Expected Damage:

Severe and extensive human and physical damage.

Limits and Negative Effects:

The United States and South Korea could successfully preempt and intercept most of North Korea's nuclear attacks with various means including the use of US nuclear weapons. Japan could also participate in missile defense and, possibly, strike operations. The three countries would seek to minimize casualties with robust civil defense measures. South Korea could use the opportunity to unify the Korean Peninsula.

2 China

(1) Nuclear Weapons and Delivery Means

In 2021, China's operational nuclear warheads stockpile was assessed to have surpassed 400. If China keeps expanding its nuclear forces at the current pace, it will likely field about 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035. China has also deployed more than 600 short-range ballistic missiles with a range of 300 to 1,000 kilometers, over 500 medium-range ballistic missiles with a range of 1,000 to 3,000 kilometers, and more than 250 intermediate-range ballistic missiles with a range of 3,000 to 5,500 kilometers. It also possesses 300 intercontinental ballistic missiles with a range of 5,500 kilometers or more, and over 300 ground-launched cruise missiles with a range of 1,500 kilometers or more. ¹¹ In 2021, China is assessed to have launched 135 ballistic missiles for testing and training purposes. That was more than the number of missiles launched outside of China, excluding those launched in conflicts. ¹²

China is estimated to possess approximately 60 nuclear weapons for tactical missions in the Indo-Pacific region. The missiles capable of delivering those tactical nuclear weapons include the DF-21A/E ballistic missile (with a range of over 2,100 kilometers and at least 40 mobile launchers), DF-26 ballistic missile (with a range of 4,000 kilometers operated on 200 mobile launchers, of which approximately 20 are designated for nuclear operation; an anti-ship version is also available), and DF-17 ballistic missile with a hypersonic glide vehicle (with a range of over 1,800 kilometers operated on at least 16 mobile launchers). It is believed that the DF-15 ballistic missile (with a range of 600 kilometers) can carry nuclear warheads, but there is no evidence of actual nuclear deployment. While it cannot be ruled out that China's cruise missiles are capable of carrying nuclear weapons, they are not currently engaged in substantive nuclear operations. Finally, due to the lack of capable delivery means, the Chinese air force's nuclear mission is limited, with only around 20 nuclear gravity bombs in its possession. ¹³

(2) Scenarios

Scenario 1: Neutralizing Japan and, possibly, the United States in the Cross-Strait War

(Intra-War Probability: 50%)

China launches an attack on Taiwan and strongly warns the United States and Japan against military intervention, detonating nuclear weapons at sea. If the United States and Japan continue to provide support to Taiwan despite the warnings, China launches tactical nuclear strikes against the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force's surface vessels. Relatively small vessels are targeted at first, but if US and Japanese intervention continues, larger vessels become targets. Moreover, Beijing declares that if the United States retaliates with nuclear weapons against China, it will launch further nuclear attacks against Japanese assets and even territory. The goal is to encourage Japan to ask the United States not to retaliate with nuclear weapons. China never uses nuclear weapons against the United States. China can also use nuclear weapons against the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force's anti-ship missile units deployed in the Southwestern (Nansei) Islands such as Miyako and Ishigaki.

Objectives:

Neutralize Japan; (If Tokyo does not allow the United States to use its bases in Japan and decides not to commit the Self-Defense Forces to the Cross-Strait war, that would make the defense of Taiwan extremely difficult. The United States would find it difficult to fight effectively without Japan's help and might decide to abandon Taiwan. Even if Japan is not completely neutralized, limiting its commitment will help China.)

Make it difficult for the United States to operate its aircraft carriers near Taiwan;

Neutralize the United States, if possible.

Means:

DF-21A/E ballistic missiles (detonation at sea and Southwestern Islands attacks);

DF-26 ballistic missiles (anti-ship operations);

Possibly DF-17 hypersonic glide missiles.

Locations:

Western Pacific east of the First Island Chain (where US-Japan missile defense assets are not densely deployed).

Military/Civilian Targets:

Demonstration purposes only at first;

The Japan Self-Defense Force's surface vessels and anti-ship missile units.

Expected Damage:

Approximately 100 sailors on small surface combatants and some 500 on large surface combatants;

About 570 Japanese army personnel in Ishigaki and about 700 in Miyako;

Minimal collateral damage for civilians.

Limits and Negative Effects:

The United States and Japan could successfully intercept China's ballistic missiles, undercutting the effectiveness of China's nuclear coercion;

The United States, with its superior nuclear capabilities, could dominate each stage of escalation with aggressive nuclear use.

Scenario 2: Nuclear Use for Victory (Intra-War Probability: 30%)

China uses tactical nuclear weapons against areas along Taiwan's west coast where Chinese forces are expected to land. Taiwan's defense systems and other assets will be destroyed. In addition, China conducts nuclear strikes against key Taiwanese and Japanese military assets at sea and on land without harming US personnel or assets. Even if Taiwan is nuked, the threshold will be high for the United States to carry out nuclear retaliation against the Chinese mainland. While the use of nuclear weapons would likely divide public opinion in the United States and other Western societies, it would not cause major political problems in China. The Chinese government might even take pride in making China the second country in the world to use nuclear weapons in war and present that as a symbolic event in China's rise to hegemony. If China uses nuclear weapons tactically, it will justify that as part of its effort to defy "foreign interference in the internal affairs of the Chinese nation."

Objectives:

Destroy Taiwan's defense capabilities;

Minimize attrition of Chinese amphibious landing forces;

Break Japan's ability and willingness to continue the war.

Means:

DF-21A/E ballistic missiles (detonation at sea and Southwestern Islands attacks);

DF-26 ballistic missiles (anti-ship operations);

Possibly DF-17 hypersonic glide missiles.

Locations:

Western Pacific;

Taiwanese and Japanese territories.

Military/Civilian Targets:

Taiwan's and Japan's military assets.

Expected Damage:

Numerous casualties among Taiwanese military personnel and limited collateral damage to civilians;

Approximately 100 sailors on small surface combatants and some 500 on large surface combatants;

About 570 Japanese army personnel in Ishigaki and about 700 in Miyako.

Limits and Negative Effects:

The United States and Japan could successfully intercept China's ballistic missiles;

The United States might use tactical nuclear weapons against China's military assets such as amphibious landing forces.

Scenario 3: Face-Saving Way Out (Probability when China becomes convinced of its defeat: 20%)

Having failed to take Taiwan by force, China launches a single nuclear attack on a key Taiwanese military base located in an area with a small civilian population for the stated purpose of "punishing the separatists and teaching them a lesson." The Chinese leaders take such an action to end the war while saving their face. They then immediately declare a ceasefire and withdraw their forces, claiming that their patriotic venture to unify the Chinese nation was frustrated by "American imperialists, Japanese militarists, and Taiwanese separatists."

Objectives:

Accept the failure of the invasion of Taiwan in a dignified manner;

Keep China's neighbors on the defensive;

Make leaders of the Chinese Communist Party and the People's Liberation Army complicit in the inhumane act of using nuclear weapons lest they betray the top leader.

Means:

DF-21A/E ballistic missiles;

DF-26 ballistic missiles;

Possibly DF-17 hypersonic glide missiles.

Locations:

Taiwan

Military/Civilian Targets:

Critical base or infrastructure of Taiwanese military.

Expected Damage:

Destruction of military installations and a significant number of Taiwanese service member casualties.

Limits and Negative Effects:

The United States and Japan could successfully intercept China's ballistic missiles;

China will become isolated in the international community (although there will be a limit since isolating China too much can be counterproductive and economic interdependence will remain);

People in Taiwan will become disillusioned by China, and few will remain willing to see the unification of the Chinese nation.

Acknowledgments

I would like to express my deepest gratitude to Mr. Masashi Murano of the Hudson Institute for his valuable comments on my scenarios and to Ms. Ariel Stenek of the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies for editorial support.

Narushige Michishita is an executive vice president and professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS) in Tokyo. He can be reached at michi@grips.ac.jp.

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• March 2022, "Economic Security in the Free Trade Regime" written by Kazuto Suzuki, Professor, the University of Tokyo
• January 2022, "The 2022 South Korean Presidential Election and the Next Administration's Foreign and Security Policy" written by Junya Nishino, Professor, Keio University
• January 2022, "North Korea's Nuclear and Missile Development and Japan's Defense" written by Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, GRIPS
• January 2022, "What will Become of Japan-South Korea Relations? The 1965 Japan-South Korea Treaty System in Jeopardy" written by Masao Okonogi, Professor Emeritus, Keio University
• December 2021, "Economic and Social Conditions in North Korea and its Relations with South Korea" written by Mitsuhiro Mimura, Chief Research Fellow, The Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia.
• December 2021, "China's Korean Peninsula Policy and North Korea" written by Shin Kawashima, Professor, the University of Tokyo.
• December 2021, "China's Korean Peninsula Policy and North Korea" written by Shunji Hiraiwa, Professor, Nanzan University.
• December 2021, "What to Do with the Relations with North Korea?" written by Hitoshi Tanaka, Chairman for Institute for International Strategy at the Japan Research Institute.
• October 2021, "Strategic Implications of North Korea's Enhanced Nuclear and Missile Capabilities" written by Narushige Michishita, Vice President, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
• October 2021, "The Biden Administration's North Korea Policy: Its Low Priority and Looming Crises" written by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation.
• October 2021, "The Evolution of the US-ROK Alliance: Tasks in the Biden Era" written by Yasuyo Sakata, Professor, Kanda University of International Studies.
• September 2021, "The Development of Regional Security Architecture: From Asia-Pacific to Indo-Pacific" written by Ken Jimbo, Professor, Keio University.
• September 2021, "The Strategic Development of Japanese Security Cooperation under Superpower Competition and the Development of the FOIP and its Operationalization" written by Nobushige Takamizawa, Visiting Professor, Graduate School of Public Policy, The University of Tokyo.
• August 2021, "Security Perceptions of Central Asian Countries--- From the Perspective of China Studies ---" written by Shin Kawashima, Professor, the University of Tokyo.
• August 2021, "Security in the Indian Ocean Region---Implication of the Galwan Incident for QUAD in the Indo-Pacific" written by Dr. Satoru Nagao, Fellow (Non-Resident), Hudson Institute.
• August 2021, "Easternization and Security in Asia" written by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation.
• July 2021, "The Ideas of "Autonomy" and "Self-Reliance" in Contemporary India's Foreign Strategy" written by Kazutoshi TAMARI, Associate Professor,Chukyo University.
• July 2021, "Thailand's Security Policies and Threat Perceptions" written by Saya Kiba, Associate Professor, Komatsu University, Faculty of Intercultural Communication.
• July 2021, "Myanmar's Security Perceptions and the February 1 Coup d'Etat" written by Yoshihiro Nakanishi, Associate Professor, Kyoto University.
• July 2021, "Australia's Security Perceptions and the "Asia Threat"" written byTomohiko Satake, Senior Fellow, Defense Policy Division, Policy Studies Department, NIDS .
• June 2021, "The Indo-Pacific Regional Architecture: Its Future--- Multipolar Order Beyond US-China Relations ---" by Tsutomu Kikuchi, Professor, Aoyama Gakuin University
• June 2021, "The Quad Plus in the Security of Asia: Its Significance and Outlook" by Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
• June 2021, "Indonesian Views and Perceptions on National Security" by Nobuhiro Aizawa, Associate Professor, The Graduate School of Social and Cultural Studies, Kyushu University
• June 2021, "Normalized Tensions in the Cross-Strait Relations--- Structural Changes in Taiwanese Society and the Xi Jinping Administration's Strategic Shift ---" by Yasuhiro Matsuda, Professor, The University of Tokyo
• June 2021, "China's Maritime Strategy and Responses of the United States and Japan" by Yoji Koda, Former Commander in Chief, Self Defense Fleet
• June 2021, "The South China Issues from the Perspective of the International Law Order",by Shigeki Sakamoto, Emeritus Professor, Kobe University
• May 2021, "Indonesian Views and Perceptions on National Security" by Nobuhiro Aizawa, Associate Professor, Kyushu University
• May, 2021, "The Philippine Foreign and Security Policy Perspective" written by Yusuke Takagi Associate Professor,National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
• May, 2021, "Vietnam's Security: Challenges and Responses" written by Tomotaka Shoji Head, Asia and Africa Division, Regional Studies Department, National Institute for Defense Studies
• March, 2021, "Can the Biden Administration Restore America as a Global Leader?" written by Matake Kamiya, Professor, the National Defense Academy of Japan.
• March, 2021, "The Biden Administration and Japan's Security Strategy" written by Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
• February,2021, "US Foreign and Security Policy Direction Viewed from the Biden Administration's Lineup" written by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
• February,2021, "Trade Policies of the Biden Administration" written by Takaaki Asano, Senior Analyst, Sumitomo Corporation Global Research Co. Ltd.
• February,2021, "The Biden Administration's Policy toward Russia" written by Taisuke Abiru, Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
• January,2021, "Will US Policy Toward China Change?" lectured by Ryo Sahashi, Associate Professor, the University of Tokyo
• January,2021, "How will China View the Biden Administration?" written by Bonji Ohara, Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
• January,2021, "An Assessment of the 2020 US Presidential Election－American Democracy Now－" lectured by Fumiaki Kubo, Professor, the University of Tokyo
• January,2021, "Two Trumpian Mysteries－Why did Trump win over 70 million votes? Why is his outrageous behavior unchecked?－" lectured by Kazuhiro Maeshima, Professor, Sophia University
• September, 2020, "The Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic and Internationa Relationsl" by Matake Kamiya, Professor, National Defense Academy of Japan
• September, 2020, "The Policy Agenda for the Xi Jinping Administration- COVID-19 Countermeasures and China's International Relations -" by Shin Kawashima, Professor, The University of Tokyo
• "Control in the United States and International Relations" by Koji Murata, Professor, Doshisha University
• September, 2020, "The EU's Response to COVID-19 and International Relations" by Yuichi Hosoya, Professor, Keio University
• August, 2020, "The Corona Crisis Seen from a Macroeconomic Perspective" written by Motoshige Itoh, Professor Emeritus, The University of Tokyo
• August, 2020, "The Coronavirus Pandemic and Japan's Infectious Disease Control" written by Takashi Mihara, Senior Research Fellow, NLI Research Institute
• August, 2020, "Infectious Disease Crisis Control in Japan- Recommendations on an Exit Strategy -" written by Kazumasa Oguro, Professor, Hosei University
• August, 2020, "Security against Infectious Disease Threats --- Policy Responses Abroad" written by Takashi Sekiyama, Associate Professor, Kyoto University
• June 2020,"Transformation of the International Order in the Middle East--- Varying Degrees of "Stateness" and Three Directions of the New Order" written by Satoshi Ikeuchi, Professor, Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo
• June 2020,"Destabilization in the Middle East and its Impacts on Japan's Energy Security" written by Amane Kobayashi, Research Fellow, The Institute of Energy Economics
• May 2020: Urgent Recommendations "Toward a V-shaped Recovery after the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic "Coronavirus Testing for All" --- the First Step of the Next Phase"
• May 2020: "US Diplomacy toward Iran: Economic Sanctions as a Diplomatic Tool" Hiroki Sugita Columnist, Kyodo News
• "Russian Factors in the Middle East" Taisuke Abiru Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
• "The SDF Dispatches to the Middle East --- History and Significance" Ippeita Nishida Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
• March 2020, "Space and Security" Kazuto Suzuki Professor, Hokkaido University
• March 2020, "The US Security Space Policy --- With a Focus on the Establishment of Two Space Forces" Yasuhito Fukushima Chief Researcher, The National Institute for Defense Studies
• March 2020, "China's Recent Activities in Space and Cyberspace" Bonji Ohara Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
• March 2020, "Environmental Security and Japan" Takashi Sekiyama Associate Professor, Kyoto University
• March 2020, "Changes in Global Environment and Security --- US Security Strategy" Hideshi Tokuchi Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)
• February 2020, "Cyberspace Security" Motohiro Tsuchiya Professor, Keio University
• February 2020, "Japan's Space and Cyberspace Policy" Yukinari Hirose Former President of the National Institute for Defense Studies
• December 2019, "The US-China Confrontation --- Where Will Hegemony Reside Next?" Akio Takahara Professor, the University of Tokyo
• December 2019, "Challenges Facing the Chinese Economy" Osamu Tanaka Chief Senior Researcher, Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO
• December 2019, "US Strategic Perception on China: Implications for US Allied Partners" Tsuneo Watanabe Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
• November 2019, "The Xi Jinping Administration's View of the International Order– China's emphasis on United Nations diplomacy and liberal economic policies−" Shin Kawashima, Professor, the University of Tokyo
• November 2019, "The Future of China's Security Strategy" Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
• November 2019, "China --- Its Confidence and Anxiety" Bonji Ohara, Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
• August 2019: Several Perspectives on the Korean Peninsula Issue--- The Deteriorating Japan-South Korea Relationship and the Uncertain Denuclearization of North Korea --- By Masahiro Akiyama Chairman, the SSDP
• July 2019, "An Outlook on the Denuclearization of North Korea--- What is the Stance of North Korea?---", Junya Nishino, Professor, Keio University
• July 2019, "An Outlook on the Denuclearization of North Korea --- How will the US move?", Narushige Michishita, Vice President, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
• July 2019, "Discussion on Denuclearization of North Korea", SSDP Discussion Meeting on May 8, 2019
• May 2019: "Current Status and Prospects of South Korea and Japan's Frictions over History: How to address the Judicial Problems", Masao Okonogi, Professor Emeritus, Keio University
• May 2019: "South Korea and Japan's Frictions over History" (Comments), Junya Nishino, Professor, Keio University
• May 2019: Japan and South Korea Relationships (Question & Answer)
• March 2019: "The Present State and Prospects of the Indian Economy and Economic Policies" written by Koji Kobayashi, Senior Economist Mizuho Research Institute Ltd.
• March 2019: "The "Modi diplomacy" in the History of Indian diplomacy--- Departure from or maintenance of the traditional diplomacy? ---" written by Toru Ito, The National Defense Academy of Japan
• February 2019: Dynamics of Indian Politics and the 2019 General Elections, written by Chiharu Takenaka, Professor of Rikkyo University
• February 2019: "Cooperative Strategy" to Realize "Competitive Strategy"--- The composite structure of Japan's "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" strategy (vision) ---, written by Matake Kamiya, Professor at The National Defense Academy of Japan
• January 2019:, A paper, "How will the US midterm elections results affect the Trump administration's foreign policy for 2019?" written by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation
• January 2019:, A paper, "The Present and Future of the International Trade Order" , written by Akihiko Tamura, Professor, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
• December 2018: The US-China Competition and Japan, written by Ryo Sahashi, Professor at Kanagawa University
• December 2018: An Outlook for the US-China Trade War―What makes the two economically interdependent superpowers confront each other?―, written by Takashi Sekiyama, Associate professor at Toyo University
• September 2018: Proposal, "The Denuclearization of North Korea and the Restoration of Peace in the Korean Peninsula― Correct Perceptions and Eight Proposals on Japan's North Korea Diplomacy－" edited by the Society of Security and Diplomatic Policy Studies
• September 2018: "The Taiwan Policy of the Xi Jinping Administration in its Second Term: An Outlook on Cross-Strait Relations in the New Era" written by Yasuhiro Matsuda, Professor of the Tokyo University
• July 2018: "The EU States and Russia on North Korea Issues- Expansion of Influence through Diplomacy: Attempts and Limitations -" lectured by Yuichi Hosoya, Professor of Keio University
• "An Assessment of the US-North Korea Summit and an Outlook for the Future of the Korean Peninsula" lectured by Junya Nishino, Professor of Keio University
• "Korean Peninsula Issue and Japan's Future Security Policy" written by Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow of National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
• July 2018: "US North Korea policy affected by personnel changes in the Trump administration" lectured by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation.
• "China-North Korea relationship under Xi Jinping" lectured by Shin Kawashima, Professor of the Tokyo University.
• "North Korean Denuclearization and Russia" lectured by Nobuo Shimotomai, Professor of the Hosei University.
• March 2018: "The Network Hegemony Theory for a Security Architecture in The Asia Pacific Region" lectured by Masahiro Akiyama, Chairman, the Society of Security and Diplomatic Policy Studies
• January 2018: "A Destabilized Middle East" lectured by Koichiro Tanaka, Professor, Keio University
• December 2017: "Problems in Sino-Japanese Relations, 1992-2042" lectured by Ezra F. Vogel, Professor of the Social Sciences Emeritus at Harvard University
• November 2017: "The Future of the Asia-Pacific Region" written by Yoriko Kawaguchi, Fellow, the Meiji Institute for Global Affairs, Former Minister Foreign Affairs
• October 2017: "A New Trend in India's Foreign Policy and Japan" Written by HIROSE,Takako, Professor, Senshu University
• August 2017: "The Shocks that shook the Transatlantic World and their Implication for Japan's Foreign Policy" written by HOSOYA, Yuichi, Professor, Keio University
• August 2017: "Does Economic Interdependence not Encourage Collaboration? ―Thinking Japan-China Relations from an Economic Perspective―" written by Takashi SEKIYAMA, Ph.D., Toyo University
• July 2017: Proposal article "The Trump Administration's Impact on the Cross-Strait Relations" written by Yasuhiro Matsuda, Ph.D.
• June 2017: Proposal article "The outlook for the relationship between two great powers and implications for Japanese diplomacy" written by Professor Shin Kawashima
• May 2017: (Emergency Proposal) Facing the Inconvenient Truth: Re-examining Policy for Peace and Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula (Chief author, Masao Okonogi)
• March 2017: "Economic Influences of the Trump Administration" written by Professor Motoshige Ito
• February, 2017: Proposal article "Trump's Foreign and Security Policy - Unpredictable President, Realistic Secretaries - " written by Mr. Tsuneo Watanabe is posted on the website of SSDP.
• December, 2016: Proposal article "Reconsidering North Korea Policy: How to Deal with a Nuclear Armed Divided States" written by Professor Masao Okonogi is posted on the website of SSDP.

• Taiwan-Japan Round Table on August 24th, at Capital Tokyu Hotel
• Japan-Korea Political Leaders Dialogue was held on February 10th,2023 at International House of Japan
• March 2022, A remembrance seminar "Remembering Professor Ezra Vogel" held on January 17, 2022
• March 2021, Japan-ROK Parliamentary Dialogue -Japan-ROK Cooperation in the Era of US-China Competition- held on March 11, 2021
• December 2020: The report of the Japan-ROK Future Dialogue held on November 21 to discuss "Japan-ROK Cooperation in the Post-Covid-19 Era
• October 2020: "Responses to COVID-19 and Agendas for the Post-COVID-19 Era", A Brief Overview of the Japan-Korea Experts Dialogue held on July 29,30, 2020
• October 2020: "The China-Taiwan Confrontation over Corona Response and Taiwan's Security" written by Makoto Ogata, Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
• May 2020: "Rivalries in the Middle East in New Security Dynamics", Written by Sayed Ghoneim, Major General (retired) of the Egyptian Armed Forces, Chairman, Institute for Global Security & Defence Affairs
• March 2020: The Japan-South Korea Relationship in a Cul-de-Sac--- Where is an Exit ? Masao Okonogi Professor Emeritus, Keio Universit
• December 2019: The Hong Kong Upheaval and the Future of Cross-Straits Relations－The 2019 Japan-Taiwan Strategic Dialogue Report OGATA, Makoto Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
• August 2019: Report; 2019 FUTURE CONSENSUS DIALOGUE --Sustainable Prosperity and Future of Korea-U.S.-Japan Cooperation-- By Future Consensus Institute (Yeosijae)
• June 2019: Report on India – Japan Security Dialogue 2019 by Ms. Vindu Mai Chotani, Ph.D Student, The University of Tokyo
• June 2019: Four papers on Japan-India Cooperation submitted to India-Japan Security Dialogue 2019
  1. Japan's Rationale for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision
     Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, The Sasakawa Peace Foundation
  2. The Significance and Possibilities of India-Japan Cooperation in the Concept of the Indo-Pacific
     Toru ITO Associate Professor, National Defense Academy of Japan
  3. Japan-India Defense Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific Context - Operationalizing the Security Aspect of the Indo-Pacific Vision –
     Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)
  4. India-US-Japan Defense Cooperation: What's next?
     Dr. Satoru Nagao, Hudson Institute
• November 2018: "The Present State of the Japanese Economy and Policy Issues" lectured by Motoshige Itoh, Professor Emeritus at the University of Tokyo.
• November 2018: "Expanding Social Security Expenses and Fiscal Reforms" lectured by Kazumasa Oguro, Professor at Hosei University.
• September 2018: "Taiwan Identity and Cross-Strait Relations and Trump's Taiwan Policy and the Future of Taiwan-US Relations-Discussion at The Second Japan-Taiwan Strategic Dialogue (June 21, 2018, Taipei)-" written by OGATA, Makoto
• September 2018: "Japan-Taiwan Dialogue 2018 Minutes", 21st June 2018, Taipei, Taiwan.
• July 2018: Report on The Second Japan – Philippines Strategic Dialogue prepared by Ms. Vindu Mai Chotani, Ph.D. Student, Graduate School of Public Policy, Tokyo University.
• May 2018: "Civilian Control "at Crisis"? – Perhaps Not, for the Case of the Field Sit-reps from SDF's South Sudan Mission" reported by Ippeita Nishida, Research Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation
• January 2018: "Fukushima, Genki？Project－Young Taiwanese volunteers introduce the facts on Fukushima's revival through documentary films－" reported by OGATA, Makoto, Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
• December 2017: "Commemorating a Quarter Century of Dispatches of the JSDF's PKO Units: Challenges and Possibilities in the Post South Sudan" written by Takayuki Shoji, Lecturer, Nihon University
• November 2017: "19th CCP National Congress" written by Mr. Bonji Ohara, Senior Research Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Fondation
• October 2017: "What is Japan's Role in the Indo-China border conflict?" written by Dr. NGAO,Satoru, Research Fellow, Institute for Future Engineering
• July 2017: "Overview of the Current Situation in Taiwan-" the Naturally Independent Generation" will affect the Taiwan"s politics-" written by Makoto Ogata MGE.(Ret.)
• June 2017: "Japan-U.S. Economic Dialogue" written by Mr.Takaaki Asano
• March 2017: "The Japan-Philippines Strategic Dialogue" written by Mr. Hideshi Tokuchi
• February, 2017: Current topic "The Importance of Japan's Security Role Under Trump" written by Dr. Satoru Nagao is posted on the SSDP website.
• December, 2016: Current topic "Widening Security Task: Will SDF do the Job?" written by Mr. Ippeita Nishida is posted on the SSDP website.

• July 2024, Research journal "Security Studies vol6 no2" (How Has South Korea Changed under the Yoon Suk-yeol Administration?) in English edition was published.
• April 2024, Research journal "Security Studies vol6 no1" (The Middle East in Turmoil) in English edition was published.
• December 2023, Research journal "Security Studies vol5 no4" (What is th Global South?) in English edition was published.
• September 2023, Research journal "Security Studies vol5 no3" (Hegemonic America: Where It's Headed) in English edition was published.
• June 2023,Research journal "Security Studies vol5 no2" (Nuclear Crisis Scenarios Facing Japan and the Outlook of Nuclear Deterrence and Arms Control and Disarmament) in English edition was published.
• March 2023,Research journal "Security Studies vol5 no1" (What Will Happen to European Security?―Facing the War in Ukraine) in English edition was published.
• January 2023, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 4)" - Defending Our Country – Defense Policy in a "New Cold War Era - was published.
• October 2022, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 3)" - Xi Jinping's China - Politics, Economy, Society and Diplomacy - was published.
• Jun 2022, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 2)" -The Russia-Ukraine War and Its Global Impact- was published.
• March 2022, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 1)"-What is Economic Security?- was published.
• December 2021, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 3 no 4)"-Korean Peninsula Situation- was published.
• September 2021, A research journal "Security Studies vol03 no03" -Asia's Security II- (English edition)
• June 2021, A research journal "Security Studies vol03 no02" -Asia's Security I- (English edition)
• March 2021: Research journal "Security Studies (vol3 no1) "- US Foreign Policy in the Biden Administration / The 2020 US Presidential Election and American Democracy -(English edition)
• December 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no4) "- Normalize Japan-South Korea Relations trough Dialogues -(English edition)
• September 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no3) "-The Novel Coronavirus and Security-(English edition)
• July 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no2) - Middle East Situation and Japan's Security - " (English edition) was published
• May 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no1) - Cyber, Space, Environment and Security - " March 2020 (English edition)
• February 2020, "A research journal "Security Studies (vol1 no4) " (English edition)"
• September 2019: A research journal "Security Studies (vol1 no3) " (English edition)
• August 2019: Korea-Japan Joint Seminar: FUTURE CONSENSUS DIALOGUE
• April 2019: "Security Studies (vol1 no2) April 2019"
• March 2019: A research journal "Security Studies vol1 no01" just published
• February 2019: The Denuclearization of North Korea and the Takeshima Issue
• December 2018: Former Vice Defense Minister Masahiro Akiyama's Memoirs (An Ad)
• November 2018: Participation in the Future Consensus Forum held in Beijing
• September 2018: "2018 Indo-Pacific Security Dialogue" reported by Masahiro Akiyama
• 2017 December: "The Butterfly Project-A possibility of showing a solution to the North Korea problem-"
• October 2017: Campaign on the problems with North Korea
• August 2017: A New Containment Policy Strategy
• June 2017: Korean peninsla
• March 2017: President Duterte
• February, 2017: Kazakhstan
• November, 2016: Participated in Astana Club 2016 held in Kazakhstan on November 14- 16, 2016.