SSDP

(Project of the Kajima Institute of International Peace)

A Destabilized Middle East (Abstract)

Koichiro Tanaka
Professor, Keio University

(This paper was prepared by the SSDP secretary as an abstract for Mr.Tanaka's lecture in December 2017)

There are three aspects for observing the Middle East from a geopolitical viewpoint.

Firstly, what does the Middle East mean for other countries? For Japan it is an area where oil and gas resources are abundant while for Europe the area is special due to Jerusalem. Secondary, the area includes crucial chokepoints such as the Holmes Strait and the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Thirdly, the area represents an unstable front, which has been called the Arc of instability, the Axis of Evil, or the Shiite Crescent. It is interesting that the US military bases are located in the outer edge of the area.

Traditional sources for the instability are religious conflicts, energy issues and sovereignty disputes. Development of weapons of mass destruction and failed state problems should also to be listed.

A new element for the instability was added recently. The US abandoned its ally, Egypt after the Arab Uprising (Spring) and Gulf monarchies feared they could be next. The US has reduced its commitment to the Middle East with its shale gas revolution. The Obama doctrine resulted in Iran becoming a large power and a strong source of distrust in the US in the region made the countries engage in independent but aggressive diplomacies.

The Trump administration issued the immigration restriction order on Muslims and declared Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. The US is seen to have abandoned its traditional policy, the "Two State Solution", and strengthen its alliance with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Israel. These are an absolute refutal of Obama's line.

The Trump administration exported many weapons to Saudi Arabia while it sold many more weapons to Israel. Strengthening Saudi Arabia's military capability led to the result that Iran became actively engaged in ballistic missile development. We can now see regional competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran which makes the Middle East situation complicated and unstable.

President Trump ignores human right problems. In Bahrain the oppression of the Shiite is becoming serious. Saudi Arabia conducted a wild attack on Yemen. Nobody focuses the fact that human rights are now ignored in Egypt. These could trigger a second "Arab Uprising".

Saudi Arabia is suffering from a large budget deficit through its purchases of many weapons from the US, which could lead to Saudi discontent in the future. "The Arab NATO" now under discussion, that is seen as a substantial network of the Sunni against terrorism will be aborted.

We will see confusion in the Middle East in the near future.

In the past six months various events have taken place one after others: a blockade of Qatar, Saudi's requests of thirteen conditions that Qatar cannot at all accept, Aljazeera's refutations against Saudi Arabia and a large amount of restraint of leaders in Saudi Arabia. Crown Prince Mohammed bin. Salman is leading a corruption crackdown by restraining powerful political leaders and business men and is seeking to control the influential media.

At the same time Saudi Arabia has attacked Iran, Russia and the US with a low oil price strategy, has contained the Shiite and the Hezbollah, and intervened in Yemen and Syria. It resulted in a severe Saudi-Iranian rivalry. Crown Prince Salman condemned the Iran's top leader Khamenei as a Middle East Hitler and Iran called for the eradication of the Wahab (Saudi's state religion).

As a result, cross-strait relations (between Iran and Saudi Arabia) have become difficult. Now a significant alliance among the US, Saudi and Israel has emerged. Particularly US-Israel ties have recently been strengthened. The confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia has become very serious. Iran defines the US as the largest threat while Saudi Arabia sees Iran as the biggest threat.

We can see that the political paradigm in the Middle East is changing. In a traditional perspective Saudi Arabia and Israel cannot work together. Saudi Arabia has countered Iran by using its network with the Afghan's Al Qaeda and the Iraqi Sunni, but both were repeled by the US. The US commitment to the Middle East has declined. Israel and Saudi Arabia have formed a "United Front against Iran" due to the principle that my enemy's enemy is my friend.

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  0. Front Cover
  1. Changes in the Security Environment Surrounding Japan - Shifting Power Balance and the Three Front Threats Ken Jimbo
  2. How Will "Japan Contingencies" Emerge? Osamu Onoda
  3. The Japan-US Alliance Revisited: Is it Dependable? Chikako Kawakatsu Ueki
  4. A New Phase of Defense Diplomacy and Defense Production and Technology Base Ippeita Nishida, Tsuneo Watanabe
  5. Intelligence Activities in the Post-Ukraine War Era Jun Nagashima
  6. Responding to the Nuclear Threat Masashi Murano
  7. No Time to Lose for Improving Japan's Defense Capabilities - Can the JSDF Defend the Homeland? - Ryoichi Oriki
  8. Toward the Formulation of a New "National Security Strategy" Hideshi Tokuchi
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• May 2019: "South Korea and Japan's Frictions over History" (Comments), Junya Nishino, Professor, Keio University
• May 2019: Japan and South Korea Relationships (Question & Answer)
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• February 2019: Dynamics of Indian Politics and the 2019 General Elections, written by Chiharu Takenaka, Professor of Rikkyo University
• February 2019: "Cooperative Strategy" to Realize "Competitive Strategy"--- The composite structure of Japan's "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" strategy (vision) ---, written by Matake Kamiya, Professor at The National Defense Academy of Japan
• January 2019:, A paper, "How will the US midterm elections results affect the Trump administration's foreign policy for 2019?" written by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation
• January 2019:, A paper, "The Present and Future of the International Trade Order" , written by Akihiko Tamura, Professor, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
• December 2018: The US-China Competition and Japan, written by Ryo Sahashi, Professor at Kanagawa University
• December 2018: An Outlook for the US-China Trade War―What makes the two economically interdependent superpowers confront each other?―, written by Takashi Sekiyama, Associate professor at Toyo University
• September 2018: Proposal, "The Denuclearization of North Korea and the Restoration of Peace in the Korean Peninsula― Correct Perceptions and Eight Proposals on Japan's North Korea Diplomacy－" edited by the Society of Security and Diplomatic Policy Studies
• September 2018: "The Taiwan Policy of the Xi Jinping Administration in its Second Term: An Outlook on Cross-Strait Relations in the New Era" written by Yasuhiro Matsuda, Professor of the Tokyo University
• July 2018: "The EU States and Russia on North Korea Issues- Expansion of Influence through Diplomacy: Attempts and Limitations -" lectured by Yuichi Hosoya, Professor of Keio University
• "An Assessment of the US-North Korea Summit and an Outlook for the Future of the Korean Peninsula" lectured by Junya Nishino, Professor of Keio University
• "Korean Peninsula Issue and Japan's Future Security Policy" written by Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow of National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
• July 2018: "US North Korea policy affected by personnel changes in the Trump administration" lectured by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation.
• "China-North Korea relationship under Xi Jinping" lectured by Shin Kawashima, Professor of the Tokyo University.
• "North Korean Denuclearization and Russia" lectured by Nobuo Shimotomai, Professor of the Hosei University.
• March 2018: "The Network Hegemony Theory for a Security Architecture in The Asia Pacific Region" lectured by Masahiro Akiyama, Chairman, the Society of Security and Diplomatic Policy Studies
• January 2018: "A Destabilized Middle East" lectured by Koichiro Tanaka, Professor, Keio University
• December 2017: "Problems in Sino-Japanese Relations, 1992-2042" lectured by Ezra F. Vogel, Professor of the Social Sciences Emeritus at Harvard University
• November 2017: "The Future of the Asia-Pacific Region" written by Yoriko Kawaguchi, Fellow, the Meiji Institute for Global Affairs, Former Minister Foreign Affairs
• October 2017: "A New Trend in India's Foreign Policy and Japan" Written by HIROSE,Takako, Professor, Senshu University
• August 2017: "The Shocks that shook the Transatlantic World and their Implication for Japan's Foreign Policy" written by HOSOYA, Yuichi, Professor, Keio University
• August 2017: "Does Economic Interdependence not Encourage Collaboration? ―Thinking Japan-China Relations from an Economic Perspective―" written by Takashi SEKIYAMA, Ph.D., Toyo University
• July 2017: Proposal article "The Trump Administration's Impact on the Cross-Strait Relations" written by Yasuhiro Matsuda, Ph.D.
• June 2017: Proposal article "The outlook for the relationship between two great powers and implications for Japanese diplomacy" written by Professor Shin Kawashima
• May 2017: (Emergency Proposal) Facing the Inconvenient Truth: Re-examining Policy for Peace and Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula (Chief author, Masao Okonogi)
• March 2017: "Economic Influences of the Trump Administration" written by Professor Motoshige Ito
• February, 2017: Proposal article "Trump's Foreign and Security Policy - Unpredictable President, Realistic Secretaries - " written by Mr. Tsuneo Watanabe is posted on the website of SSDP.
• December, 2016: Proposal article "Reconsidering North Korea Policy: How to Deal with a Nuclear Armed Divided States" written by Professor Masao Okonogi is posted on the website of SSDP.

• Taiwan-Japan Round Table on August 24th, at Capital Tokyu Hotel
• Japan-Korea Political Leaders Dialogue was held on February 10th,2023 at International House of Japan
• March 2022, A remembrance seminar "Remembering Professor Ezra Vogel" held on January 17, 2022
• March 2021, Japan-ROK Parliamentary Dialogue -Japan-ROK Cooperation in the Era of US-China Competition- held on March 11, 2021
• December 2020: The report of the Japan-ROK Future Dialogue held on November 21 to discuss "Japan-ROK Cooperation in the Post-Covid-19 Era
• October 2020: "Responses to COVID-19 and Agendas for the Post-COVID-19 Era", A Brief Overview of the Japan-Korea Experts Dialogue held on July 29,30, 2020
• October 2020: "The China-Taiwan Confrontation over Corona Response and Taiwan's Security" written by Makoto Ogata, Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
• May 2020: "Rivalries in the Middle East in New Security Dynamics", Written by Sayed Ghoneim, Major General (retired) of the Egyptian Armed Forces, Chairman, Institute for Global Security & Defence Affairs
• March 2020: The Japan-South Korea Relationship in a Cul-de-Sac--- Where is an Exit ? Masao Okonogi Professor Emeritus, Keio Universit
• December 2019: The Hong Kong Upheaval and the Future of Cross-Straits Relations－The 2019 Japan-Taiwan Strategic Dialogue Report OGATA, Makoto Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
• August 2019: Report; 2019 FUTURE CONSENSUS DIALOGUE --Sustainable Prosperity and Future of Korea-U.S.-Japan Cooperation-- By Future Consensus Institute (Yeosijae)
• June 2019: Report on India – Japan Security Dialogue 2019 by Ms. Vindu Mai Chotani, Ph.D Student, The University of Tokyo
• June 2019: Four papers on Japan-India Cooperation submitted to India-Japan Security Dialogue 2019
  1. Japan's Rationale for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision
     Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, The Sasakawa Peace Foundation
  2. The Significance and Possibilities of India-Japan Cooperation in the Concept of the Indo-Pacific
     Toru ITO Associate Professor, National Defense Academy of Japan
  3. Japan-India Defense Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific Context - Operationalizing the Security Aspect of the Indo-Pacific Vision –
     Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)
  4. India-US-Japan Defense Cooperation: What's next?
     Dr. Satoru Nagao, Hudson Institute
• November 2018: "The Present State of the Japanese Economy and Policy Issues" lectured by Motoshige Itoh, Professor Emeritus at the University of Tokyo.
• November 2018: "Expanding Social Security Expenses and Fiscal Reforms" lectured by Kazumasa Oguro, Professor at Hosei University.
• September 2018: "Taiwan Identity and Cross-Strait Relations and Trump's Taiwan Policy and the Future of Taiwan-US Relations-Discussion at The Second Japan-Taiwan Strategic Dialogue (June 21, 2018, Taipei)-" written by OGATA, Makoto
• September 2018: "Japan-Taiwan Dialogue 2018 Minutes", 21st June 2018, Taipei, Taiwan.
• July 2018: Report on The Second Japan – Philippines Strategic Dialogue prepared by Ms. Vindu Mai Chotani, Ph.D. Student, Graduate School of Public Policy, Tokyo University.
• May 2018: "Civilian Control "at Crisis"? – Perhaps Not, for the Case of the Field Sit-reps from SDF's South Sudan Mission" reported by Ippeita Nishida, Research Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation
• January 2018: "Fukushima, Genki？Project－Young Taiwanese volunteers introduce the facts on Fukushima's revival through documentary films－" reported by OGATA, Makoto, Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
• December 2017: "Commemorating a Quarter Century of Dispatches of the JSDF's PKO Units: Challenges and Possibilities in the Post South Sudan" written by Takayuki Shoji, Lecturer, Nihon University
• November 2017: "19th CCP National Congress" written by Mr. Bonji Ohara, Senior Research Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Fondation
• October 2017: "What is Japan's Role in the Indo-China border conflict?" written by Dr. NGAO,Satoru, Research Fellow, Institute for Future Engineering
• July 2017: "Overview of the Current Situation in Taiwan-" the Naturally Independent Generation" will affect the Taiwan"s politics-" written by Makoto Ogata MGE.(Ret.)
• June 2017: "Japan-U.S. Economic Dialogue" written by Mr.Takaaki Asano
• March 2017: "The Japan-Philippines Strategic Dialogue" written by Mr. Hideshi Tokuchi
• February, 2017: Current topic "The Importance of Japan's Security Role Under Trump" written by Dr. Satoru Nagao is posted on the SSDP website.
• December, 2016: Current topic "Widening Security Task: Will SDF do the Job?" written by Mr. Ippeita Nishida is posted on the SSDP website.

• April 2024, Research journal "Security Studies vol6 no1" (The Middle East in Turmoil) in English edition was published.
• December 2023, Research journal "Security Studies vol5 no4" (What is th Global South?) in English edition was published.
• September 2023, Research journal "Security Studies vol5 no3" (Hegemonic America: Where It's Headed) in English edition was published.
• June 2023,Research journal "Security Studies vol5 no2" (Nuclear Crisis Scenarios Facing Japan and the Outlook of Nuclear Deterrence and Arms Control and Disarmament) in English edition was published.
• March 2023,Research journal "Security Studies vol5 no1" (What Will Happen to European Security?―Facing the War in Ukraine) in English edition was published.
• January 2023, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 4)" - Defending Our Country – Defense Policy in a "New Cold War Era - was published.
• October 2022, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 3)" - Xi Jinping's China - Politics, Economy, Society and Diplomacy - was published.
• Jun 2022, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 2)" -The Russia-Ukraine War and Its Global Impact- was published.
• March 2022, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 1)"-What is Economic Security?- was published.
• December 2021, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 3 no 4)"-Korean Peninsula Situation- was published.
• September 2021, A research journal "Security Studies vol03 no03" -Asia's Security II- (English edition)
• June 2021, A research journal "Security Studies vol03 no02" -Asia's Security I- (English edition)
• March 2021: Research journal "Security Studies (vol3 no1) "- US Foreign Policy in the Biden Administration / The 2020 US Presidential Election and American Democracy -(English edition)
• December 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no4) "- Normalize Japan-South Korea Relations trough Dialogues -(English edition)
• September 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no3) "-The Novel Coronavirus and Security-(English edition)
• July 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no2) - Middle East Situation and Japan's Security - " (English edition) was published
• May 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no1) - Cyber, Space, Environment and Security - " March 2020 (English edition)
• February 2020, "A research journal "Security Studies (vol1 no4) " (English edition)"
• September 2019: A research journal "Security Studies (vol1 no3) " (English edition)
• August 2019: Korea-Japan Joint Seminar: FUTURE CONSENSUS DIALOGUE
• April 2019: "Security Studies (vol1 no2) April 2019"
• March 2019: A research journal "Security Studies vol1 no01" just published
• February 2019: The Denuclearization of North Korea and the Takeshima Issue
• December 2018: Former Vice Defense Minister Masahiro Akiyama's Memoirs (An Ad)
• November 2018: Participation in the Future Consensus Forum held in Beijing
• September 2018: "2018 Indo-Pacific Security Dialogue" reported by Masahiro Akiyama
• 2017 December: "The Butterfly Project-A possibility of showing a solution to the North Korea problem-"
• October 2017: Campaign on the problems with North Korea
• August 2017: A New Containment Policy Strategy
• June 2017: Korean peninsla
• March 2017: President Duterte
• February, 2017: Kazakhstan
• November, 2016: Participated in Astana Club 2016 held in Kazakhstan on November 14- 16, 2016.