Economic Challenges Awaiting the Xi Jinping Administration as It Enters Its Third Term
China's economy in the first half of 2022, after a significant decline
China had planned for economic growth of around 5.5% in 2022, but it fell sharply to 2.3% (y/y) in the first half of the year and to 0.4% in the second quarter (April to June). The most significant cause was the overly strict zero-corona policy.
Shanghai, forced to go on a total lockdown for two months, posted -13.7% in the second quarter. The surrounding provinces of Jiangsu and Zhejiang also fell, bringing down the economy of the entire East China region, the heart of the Chinese economy. Beijing also suffered a negative growth of 2.9% due to the strict corona measures adopted. Thus, central cities in China were severely affected one after another.
Another cause of the significant downturn in the Chinese economy is the severe downturn in the real estate sector that has continued since the second half of last year. Using human health as a metaphor, if the economic decline caused by the zero-corona policy is an acute illness, then the problems brought on by the real estate problem are chronic illnesses.
In the summer of 2020, the Chinese government was deeply concerned about the flare-up of the real estate bubble and began tightening loans to real estate developers, which led to a severe recession in the real estate market in late 2021. Realizing the seriousness of the situation, the government began to relax the tightening measures in late 2021 (see note 1 ), but the aftereffects were not mild enough to be dealt with by such measures. Real estate statistics for the first half of 2022 were dismal. Year-on-year home sales fell 26.6% in area and 31.8% in value. New construction dropped 35.4% in area, and land transactions in value dropped 48.3%.
Why tighten real estate that severely?
Real estate is said to have contributed 1/4 to 1/3 of annual economic growth when direct and indirect effects are combined. Why has the Xi Jinping administration adopted severe tightening measures for such an important sector? We can find the reason by looking back at the economic policies of the past ten years since the arrival of the Xi Jinping administration.
From the beginning of his presidency, President Xi Jinping (and his economic advisors) have tried to change the policy course of maintaining growth rates by relying on debt and investment, including investment in infrastructure and real estate (see note 2.) In 2014, under the slogan "New Normal," he began managing the economy without easily adopting stimulus measures when growth slows. The graph1 shows changes in economic indicators sensitive to the government's stimulus measures (year-on-year growth rate, line graph) overlaid with the debt/GDP ratio (right vertical scale, bar graph.) One can see that economic indicators worsened across the board from 2014 to 2015 when the "new normal" policy was adopted.
Policies to curb investment tend to be resisted by local governments eager to invest in infrastructure, steel, cement, and other old industrial sectors that have thrived on investment demand.
In particular, 2015 became a year of severe challenges for the "new normal" policy. The bursting of the stock market bubble in June and the RMB devaluation fiasco in August raised concerns about the future of the Chinese economy and increased pressure for stimulus measures. The following year, 2016, was the first year of the 13th Five-Year Plan, and many new projects lined up at the starting line across the country. As a result, the "new normal" policy was pushed back and came to a halt, and a new investment boom began in 2016.
This resulted in a dramatic turnaround in economic indicators in 2016, but the debt/GDP ratio rose further. Not only that, but the real estate bubble also intensified again in 2016 (see the graph2, which overlays the above-mentioned economic indicators and housing prices vs.)
In 2017, the Xi Jinping administration, gravely concerned about the excessive debt problem and the worsening real estate bubble, once again sought to break away from its reliance on investment and debt under a new slogan, "deleveraging." This time, thanks partly to Xi's concentration of power, it has lasted for a while, and the debt/GDP ratio has stopped growing and stabilized.
However, as the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic struck, China mobilized all its fiscal and monetary resources to help recover its economy. As a result, economic indicators recovered rapidly again, but at the same time, debt/GDP ratio jumped up to nearly 25%, and the housing bubble resurfaced. This was the second setback for the country's attempt to break away from its reliance on debt and investment.
The Xi Jinping administration tightened the real estate industry in 2020 because the two previous setbacks made it determined not to "further exacerbate the excessive debt and real estate bubble." The sharp drop in economic growth in the first half of 2022 has once again brought about a growing call for a significant economic stimulus package, but the Politburo meeting held on July 28 indicated that it would not push too hard for the pledged "5.5% annual growth" (see note 3.) With the 20th Party Congress approaching in the fall to decide Xi Jinping's third term in office, he would lose face if he were to fail to deliver on this crucial economic pledge. However, he may have decided that a third setback awaits him if he insists on 5.5% growth and adopts an unreasonable or excessive stimulus package.
China's Economic Challenges Awaiting the Third Term of the Xi Jinping Administration
President Xi Jinping will be elected for an unprecedented third term at the 20th Communist Party of China (CPC) Congress scheduled for the fall of 2022 and is expected to remain at the top until at least 2027. Let us look at his reign over the next five years from four perspectives to see what challenges lie ahead in the economy.
（1） Breaking away from reliance on investments and debt
As noted above, the Xi Jinping administration has consistently believed that the country should move away from a reliance on investment and debt. However, the results have been a series of setbacks. Comparing 2012, 10 years ago when Xi Jinping came to power, to the present (2021), the size of the economy has increased 2.1 times. However, the total debt has increased 3.3 times, housing prices have increased 1.6 times on average nationwide, and three times only in Beijing. For the Xi Jinping administration, which will begin its third term in the fall, the battle against the excessive debt problem and the real estate bubble is not back to square one but is worse than it was ten years ago.
Moving the economy away from its dependence on real estate and infrastructure investment is not easy. The contribution of capital formation to annual GDP growth has averaged 38.6% over the past five years, nearly 40%. In addition, investment in fixed assets has grown by an average of 5% over the past five years, although it has been recently settling down. Simply bringing the investment size to the same level as the previous year would result in a zero contribution to the growth and a nearly 40% drop in the growth rate. Furthermore, if the investment is cut year after year, it will further depress growth. Vested interests will strongly resist, as they did in 2016 when they aborted the "new normal" policy.
（2） Resolving the wealth gap and real estate bubble
The Xi Jinping administration launched a new slogan last 2021: "Common Prosperity." The problem of wealth disparity does not only undermine political stability. Real estate bubbles and wealth disparity undermine economic growth. They are a typical cause of developing countries falling into the "middle-income trap," which prevents them from overcoming the $10,000 per capita GDP barrier, so there is nothing strange about the " Common Prosperity" approach.
However, China's disparity between the rich and the poor today is not so much the disparity in income as in the disparity in assets: "the haves and have-nots." The main culprit in widening this disparity is the CCP government's failure to easily continue to rely on real estate to achieve economic growth. As a result, real estate has become insanely expensive, and the asset disparity between the "haves and have-nots" has widened to the same extent as in the U.S. (see note 4 ).
On the other hand, it is not a matter of simply lowering real estate prices to narrow the disparity between the "haves" and the "have-nots". Because more than 90% of Chinese households are homeowners, and that two-thirds of households' assets are real estate (see note 5 ), a significant drop in real estate prices would cause great dissatisfaction among the Chinese people toward the CCP Government. Rather, the people in China have believed that the Chinese government, with its powerful authority and financial resources, would try at all costs to prevent a collapse in real estate prices.
However, there have been recent incidents that have shaken this belief. Recently, real estate developers have fallen into a financial crisis due to severe tightening measures by the government. They have built many condominiums that have already been sold but are left unfinished because the remaining construction cannot continue due to shortfalls in funding. In response, there is a growing movement among buyers who purchased condominiums with mortgages to collectively boycott loan payments and demand that the local government takes action.
As of this writing, a total of 326 properties in 115 cities nationwide have been confirmed to have defaulted on loans, and the number is likely to increase further (see note 6 ). These protest moves will further cool down the real estate market and raise concerns that bank loan assets will turn into non-performing loans.
The Politburo meeting held on July 28, 2022, stated: "ensuring the delivery of buildings and stabilizing the civilian population under the responsibility of local governments." Regarding the issue of uncompleted condominiums, there are reports that the affected local governments are considering the idea of establishing a fund to complete condominium construction by providing bridge funds through bank contributions (see note 7 ).
However, if the banks are required to bear the risk of collection, the number of projects they can finance will be limited and time-consuming. In the meantime, there is a risk of a vicious cycle in which the real estate market will become increasingly anxious. In order to prevent this from happening, the government should decisively put in place a mechanism to compensate the banks if the bridge loan falls through. However, the government has not yet taken a firm stance on this issue. The central government's attitude of leaving measures to the financially strapped local governments is also puzzling. If the government does not act decisively, the real estate market will become increasingly unstable, and the risk of a bubble burst will increase.
（3） Sustainability of national finances
Dividing the Chinese economy into two sectors, the private sector and the "public" sector, including the government and state-owned enterprises, the private sector is said to be responsible for 50% of tax revenues, 60% of GDP, and 80% of employment, making it the leading actor in the flow economy. On the other hand, the "public" sector, which plays only a minor role in the flow economy, controls a great deal of wealth that is disproportionate to its minor role. The majority of land values and market capitalization of listed companies (see note 8) are in the hands of the "public" sector, which implies that the "public" sector is the leading actor in the stock economy (wealth ownership.)
In other words, the Chinese government is blessed with financial resources, as it receives a larger share of the fruits of growth than the governments of other countries. The Chinese government has used these financial resources to pursue industrial policies, military expansion, space exploration, and so on that other countries can hardly imitate. The Chinese people have relied on the government to somehow solve any economic or social problems that might arise. Recently, however, local governments, whose duties are closely related to the people's livelihood, have faced unprecedented financial difficulties. There are fears that they will not be able to fulfill their roles as they have previously.
The most significant cause of local government fiscal distress is the overinvestment and excessive debt of the past decade. It is a chronic disease of China's local governments that local city leaders compete with neighboring cities for economic growth and push forward with infrastructure investment by borrowing excessively without regard to their ability to repay.
Local government finances were in crisis in 2014 because of this. However, this time they got a reprieve thanks to the central government lifting the ban on the issuance of local government bonds (in exchange for a promise to reduce or eliminate "hidden debt" by local government subsidiaries). However, as soon as local governments became financially lighter, they accumulated even more debt to take advantage of the new infrastructure investment boom in 2016. The graph shows that local governments' "hidden debt" continues to grow. Moreover, 85% of the funds borrowed in this way went to refinance existing debt (see note 9 ). Thus, local government finances are once again heading toward a financial crisis.
The economy's overdependence on real estate is also impoverishing local finances. The severe real estate slump has resulted in a significant drop in local government revenues from land sales. Land sales revenue, which accounts for 30% of total local government revenue, dropped 31.4% in the first half of 2022. In addition, local governments are currently amid a stimulus package that includes a significant cut in VAT on the revenue side, and an increase in public works projects to boost the economy on the expenditure side.
The fact that local governments are experiencing significant financial difficulties is reflected in the reports of pay cuts for local government employees across the country since last year. The recent trend of pay cuts is said to be spreading to some of China's wealthiest provinces, including Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu (see note 10 )
As the population ages, the financial burden of pensions and medical care will increase dramatically. Amid this situation, local finances are about to fall into a severe shortage of financial resources due to past excessive debt and dependence on real estate. It is doubtful that the government will be able to continue to demonstrate its ability to "somehow solve economic and social problems as they have in the past.
（4） The Digital Economy and Science and Technology (Growth Accelerators)
While this article has covered the pessimistic topics above, there are also some positive aspects. China is leading the world in the digital economy. While the negative aspects of a "surveillance society" are often discussed abroad, China was able to immediately launch a COVID-19 tracking system because it is blessed with well-developed digital infrastructure and qualified engineers. China is also at the forefront of the world in developing 5G communication networks, which will accelerate the diffusion of IoT technology (technology that connects all aspects of society via the Internet) to the most advanced level in the world. These developments should also help China improve its productivity, which will be a driving force for growth.
There has been remarkable development in China's science and technology in recent years. It was recently reported (see note 11 ) that China has surpassed the United States for the first time in the number of research papers in the field of natural science. As a result of 40 years of diligent efforts following the U.S. and other advanced countries, China has become an undisputed scientific and technological superpower. Following the U.S. precedent, which has achieved many successes by applying the excellent scientific and technological achievements produced with government funding to industrial technology, the era of applying scientific and technological achievements to the economy will also arrive in China.
However, it is doubtful that these positive aspects will rescue the Chinese economy from the problems described in the previous section.
The economic future that awaits the third term of Xi Jinping administration
President Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party set a long-term goal of "raising GDP per capita to the level of moderately developed countries by 2035" in the 14th Five-Year Plan enacted in the spring of 2021, which is an intermediate milestone toward achieving "the great revival of the Chinese nation" by 2049. In order to achieve this long-term goal, the economy must continue to grow at an average rate of 4.5% or more for the next 14 years.
However, the outlook is bleak. In the first decade of the 21st century, real estate and infrastructure investment were the literal growth drivers. There was a good reason for the housing price, which just commercialized several years ago, to rise rapidly, attracting even more investment. For infrastructure investment, so many quality projects were queuing up for their turn to invest, which contributed significantly to economic development. However, "月満則亏;the moon waxes and the moon wanes"...as China continued to rely on this over decades, the growth driver turned into a growth constraint.
First, it will not be easy to maintain the scale of investment in real estate or local government infrastructure. This is because it is financially unsustainable, and there are no longer many projects worth investing in. China will have to reduce investment and withstand the resulting decline in growth. In short, "the borrowed growth rate will have to be repaid later." As mentioned above, the Xi Jinping administration has tried to stop investment increase from the beginning but has repeatedly failed. This has caused the advance borrowing to increase further, and the amount to be repaid in the future has also swelled.
Second, there is a significant risk that China will fall into the "middle-income trap" due to past overinvestment. In order to maintain economic growth, the only right way forward is to improve productivity, the source of growth. It is necessary to encourage productivity growth by reshuffling the structure of the economy, for example, by expanding the high-productivity sectors and downsizing the low-productivity sectors. Wealth distribution should also be carried out in line with this direction.
However, the overinvestment in real estate and infrastructure that China has accumulated to date has indeed distorted the distribution of wealth, increasing the disparity between rich and poor and hindering productivity growth.
For example, the investment yield on Chinese real estate is around 2%, less than half the most favorable bank lending rate (see note 12). The value of assets is apparently overvalued (see note). The disproportionately overpriced real estate serves as a channel through which wealth is transferred from the "have-nots" (renters, new business owners, Etc.) to the "haves" (landlords) in the form of land rent or rent.
There are also many "zombie local governments" that can never redeem on their own the debt they have taken on to invest in infrastructure. They can refinance and continue to pay interest thanks to the government providing an "implicit government guarantee." However, the interest is only paid by swapping the revenues other businesses (other companies) initially generated. The financial institutions that loaned them money should be held "responsible for lending money to people they should not have lent it to" and should dispose of their claims as losses. By contrast, continuing to receive interest rates channels an irrational transfer of wealth toward the financial institutions and the wealthy who deposit large sums of money with them (see note 13 ).
From an accounting perspective, it can be argued that China's investment boom of the past decade has significantly worsened its overall financial health. Using a balance sheet metaphor, the "assets" section has accumulated deteriorating assets with a net value far below face value, while the "liabilities" section has accumulated debts that debtors cannot repay on their own. Thanks to "implicit government guarantees," these loans have not yet defaulted or gone bankrupt, but in reality, they are latent non-performing loans. This discrepancy between the face value and reality distorts the distribution of wealth (government bloat and wasteful spending), increases the disparity between the rich and poor, and hinders productivity growth.
In a normal country, if there is a large discrepancy between face value and reality, liquidation would begin in the form of a bubble burst. However, in China, where government power is exceptionally significant, the bubble does not burst due to the practice of "implicit government guarantees." Instead, distortions in the distribution of wealth and the disparity between rich and poor are getting worse by the day. The longer the bubble holds up, the more serious these problems become - this is the core of China's bubble problem.
If the progression of this disease is not halted, China's productivity growth will be hampered, and the country will inevitably be doomed to fall into the middle-income trap. To stop the disease, it is necessary to liquidate the garbage assets and bad debts that have accumulated on both sides of the balance sheet.
This does not necessarily demand that the bubble burst. In the early 1990s, Japan's hasty attempt to collapse its real estate bubble led to a "lost decade" as many bank loans secured by real estate became non-performing loans. However, since most of China's financial institutions are state-owned, it is not theoretically impossible to systematically clean up both asset and liability sections.
In the process, however, China and its people must face various inconvenient realities. Real estate prices, which account for 2/3 of all household asset holdings, will decline. The government's infrastructure investments, piled up for two decades, have resulted in huge losses (diminishing asset values). New investments will be cut back until the balance sheet is cleaned up; thus, the pain of low growth will be unavoidable.
It remains to be seen whether the Chinese Communist Party, which has seized total control of the country and refused any outside checks, will be able to make the public face and accept these inconvenient realities.
Prior to the 20th Communist Party Congress in the fall of 2022, President Xi Jinping recently delivered a speech on policy management for the next five years (see note 14 ). In a nutshell, there seems to be no change in Xi Jinping's policies up to last year. For example, there is no sign of any modification to the goal of "raising GDP per capita to the level of moderately developed countries by 2035," which was set in March 2021 in the "14th Five-Year Plan. In other words, there is no change in the policy goal of continuing economic growth at an average of 4.5% or more for the next 14 years. This is probably because the goal is an intermediate milestone for achieving President Xi Jinping's ultimate goal, "the great revival of the Chinese nation." If the intermediate goal wavers, achieving the ultimate goal will also waver.
However, the past year has also been marked by an unprecedented real estate recession and a lockdown fiasco in China. In the world, the war in Ukraine has erupted, inflation has returned for the first time in half a century, and countries are forced to raise interest rates. Uncertainty and risk have risen dramatically both in China and the world over future economic growth, yet the content of this discourse is "as it was a year ago," as if nothing like this had happened. Moreover, there is no sense of readiness to resolve the economic challenges discussed in this paper.
Suppose that the government is unwilling to accept a decline in growth, and that they are also unwilling to accept the kind of drastic measures that would seriously question the past reign of the Communist Party. In such a case, they will have no choice but to increase fiscal spending to cover up the problem, but local finances are now at their limits. In the third term of the Xi Jinping administration, the author expects that the relationship between central and local government finances will be drastically revised sooner or later (e.g., pensions will be fully financed by the central government) , and that budget deficits will increase rapidly. China is now the world's largest net creditor nation when Hong Kong is included (see note 15 ). China will not go bankrupt immediately even if it issues many government bonds. However, its debt/GDP ratio will easily rise through 300% very soon. Then wouldn't China fail to learn from past mistakes of others as seen in Japan ?
A catastrophic event such as the bubble burst in the third term of the Xi Jinping administration is still unlikely. However, if painful surgery is avoided, the Chinese economy will fall into the middle-income trap. Although economic development through digitalization and science and technology is promising, the structural problems facing the Chinese economy are too significant to be able to drive overall economic growth only on their own. We must watch closely to see what impact the decline in growth and the end of the dream of the "great revival of the Chinese nation" will have on the domestic and foreign policies of the Xi Jinping administration.
(Adjunct Researcher, the Japan Institute of International Affairs)
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- September, 2020, "The Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic and Internationa Relationsl" by Matake Kamiya, Professor, National Defense Academy of Japan
- September, 2020, "The Policy Agenda for the Xi Jinping Administration- COVID-19 Countermeasures and China's International Relations -" by Shin Kawashima, Professor, The University of Tokyo
- "Control in the United States and International Relations" by Koji Murata, Professor, Doshisha University
- September, 2020, "The EU's Response to COVID-19 and International Relations" by Yuichi Hosoya, Professor, Keio University
- August, 2020, "The Corona Crisis Seen from a Macroeconomic Perspective" written by Motoshige Itoh, Professor Emeritus, The University of Tokyo
- August, 2020, "The Coronavirus Pandemic and Japan's Infectious Disease Control" written by Takashi Mihara, Senior Research Fellow, NLI Research Institute
- August, 2020, "Infectious Disease Crisis Control in Japan- Recommendations on an Exit Strategy -" written by Kazumasa Oguro, Professor, Hosei University
- August, 2020, "Security against Infectious Disease Threats --- Policy Responses Abroad" written by Takashi Sekiyama, Associate Professor, Kyoto University
- June 2020,"Transformation of the International Order in the Middle East--- Varying Degrees of "Stateness" and Three Directions of the New Order" written by Satoshi Ikeuchi, Professor, Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo
- June 2020,"Destabilization in the Middle East and its Impacts on Japan's Energy Security" written by Amane Kobayashi, Research Fellow, The Institute of Energy Economics
- May 2020: Urgent Recommendations "Toward a V-shaped Recovery after the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic "Coronavirus Testing for All" --- the First Step of the Next Phase"
- May 2020: "US Diplomacy toward Iran: Economic Sanctions as a Diplomatic Tool" Hiroki Sugita Columnist, Kyodo News
- "Russian Factors in the Middle East" Taisuke Abiru Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- "The SDF Dispatches to the Middle East --- History and Significance" Ippeita Nishida Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- March 2020, "Space and Security" Kazuto Suzuki Professor, Hokkaido University
- March 2020, "The US Security Space Policy --- With a Focus on the Establishment of Two Space Forces" Yasuhito Fukushima Chief Researcher, The National Institute for Defense Studies
- March 2020, "China's Recent Activities in Space and Cyberspace" Bonji Ohara Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- March 2020, "Environmental Security and Japan" Takashi Sekiyama Associate Professor, Kyoto University
- March 2020, "Changes in Global Environment and Security --- US Security Strategy" Hideshi Tokuchi Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)
- February 2020, "Cyberspace Security" Motohiro Tsuchiya Professor, Keio University
- February 2020, "Japan's Space and Cyberspace Policy" Yukinari Hirose Former President of the National Institute for Defense Studies
- December 2019, "The US-China Confrontation --- Where Will Hegemony Reside Next?" Akio Takahara Professor, the University of Tokyo
- December 2019, "Challenges Facing the Chinese Economy" Osamu Tanaka Chief Senior Researcher, Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO
- December 2019, "US Strategic Perception on China: Implications for US Allied Partners" Tsuneo Watanabe Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- November 2019, "The Xi Jinping Administration's View of the International Order– China's emphasis on United Nations diplomacy and liberal economic policies−" Shin Kawashima, Professor, the University of Tokyo
- November 2019, "The Future of China's Security Strategy" Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- November 2019, "China --- Its Confidence and Anxiety" Bonji Ohara, Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- August 2019: Several Perspectives on the Korean Peninsula Issue--- The Deteriorating Japan-South Korea Relationship and the Uncertain Denuclearization of North Korea --- By Masahiro Akiyama Chairman, the SSDP
- July 2019, "An Outlook on the Denuclearization of North Korea--- What is the Stance of North Korea?---", Junya Nishino, Professor, Keio University
- July 2019, "An Outlook on the Denuclearization of North Korea --- How will the US move?", Narushige Michishita, Vice President, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- July 2019, "Discussion on Denuclearization of North Korea", SSDP Discussion Meeting on May 8, 2019
- May 2019: "Current Status and Prospects of South Korea and Japan's Frictions over History: How to address the Judicial Problems", Masao Okonogi, Professor Emeritus, Keio University
- May 2019: "South Korea and Japan's Frictions over History" (Comments), Junya Nishino, Professor, Keio University
- May 2019: Japan and South Korea Relationships (Question & Answer)
- March 2019: "The Present State and Prospects of the Indian Economy and Economic Policies" written by Koji Kobayashi, Senior Economist Mizuho Research Institute Ltd.
- March 2019: "The "Modi diplomacy" in the History of Indian diplomacy--- Departure from or maintenance of the traditional diplomacy? ---" written by Toru Ito, The National Defense Academy of Japan
- February 2019: Dynamics of Indian Politics and the 2019 General Elections, written by Chiharu Takenaka, Professor of Rikkyo University
- February 2019: "Cooperative Strategy" to Realize "Competitive Strategy"--- The composite structure of Japan's "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" strategy (vision) ---, written by Matake Kamiya, Professor at The National Defense Academy of Japan
- January 2019:, A paper, "How will the US midterm elections results affect the Trump administration's foreign policy for 2019?" written by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- January 2019:, A paper, "The Present and Future of the International Trade Order" , written by Akihiko Tamura, Professor, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- December 2018: The US-China Competition and Japan, written by Ryo Sahashi, Professor at Kanagawa University
- December 2018: An Outlook for the US-China Trade War―What makes the two economically interdependent superpowers confront each other?―, written by Takashi Sekiyama, Associate professor at Toyo University
- September 2018: Proposal, "The Denuclearization of North Korea and the Restoration of Peace in the Korean Peninsula― Correct Perceptions and Eight Proposals on Japan's North Korea Diplomacy－" edited by the Society of Security and Diplomatic Policy Studies
- September 2018: "The Taiwan Policy of the Xi Jinping Administration in its Second Term: An Outlook on Cross-Strait Relations in the New Era" written by Yasuhiro Matsuda, Professor of the Tokyo University
- July 2018: "The EU States and Russia on North Korea Issues- Expansion of Influence through Diplomacy: Attempts and Limitations -" lectured by Yuichi Hosoya, Professor of Keio University
- "An Assessment of the US-North Korea Summit and an Outlook for the Future of the Korean Peninsula" lectured by Junya Nishino, Professor of Keio University
- "Korean Peninsula Issue and Japan's Future Security Policy" written by Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow of National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- July 2018: "US North Korea policy affected by personnel changes in the Trump administration" lectured by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation.
- "China-North Korea relationship under Xi Jinping" lectured by Shin Kawashima, Professor of the Tokyo University.
- "North Korean Denuclearization and Russia" lectured by Nobuo Shimotomai, Professor of the Hosei University.
- March 2018: "The Network Hegemony Theory for a Security Architecture in The Asia Pacific Region" lectured by Masahiro Akiyama, Chairman, the Society of Security and Diplomatic Policy Studies
- January 2018: "A Destabilized Middle East" lectured by Koichiro Tanaka, Professor, Keio University
- December 2017: "Problems in Sino-Japanese Relations, 1992-2042" lectured by Ezra F. Vogel, Professor of the Social Sciences Emeritus at Harvard University
- November 2017: "The Future of the Asia-Pacific Region" written by Yoriko Kawaguchi, Fellow, the Meiji Institute for Global Affairs, Former Minister Foreign Affairs
- October 2017: "A New Trend in India's Foreign Policy and Japan" Written by HIROSE,Takako, Professor, Senshu University
- August 2017: "The Shocks that shook the Transatlantic World and their Implication for Japan's Foreign Policy" written by HOSOYA, Yuichi, Professor, Keio University
- August 2017: "Does Economic Interdependence not Encourage Collaboration? ―Thinking Japan-China Relations from an Economic Perspective―" written by Takashi SEKIYAMA, Ph.D., Toyo University
- July 2017: Proposal article "The Trump Administration's Impact on the Cross-Strait Relations" written by Yasuhiro Matsuda, Ph.D.
- June 2017: Proposal article "The outlook for the relationship between two great powers and implications for Japanese diplomacy" written by Professor Shin Kawashima
- May 2017: (Emergency Proposal) Facing the Inconvenient Truth: Re-examining Policy for Peace and Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula (Chief author, Masao Okonogi)
- March 2017: "Economic Influences of the Trump Administration" written by Professor Motoshige Ito
- February, 2017: Proposal article "Trump's Foreign and Security Policy - Unpredictable President, Realistic Secretaries - " written by Mr. Tsuneo Watanabe is posted on the website of SSDP.
- December, 2016: Proposal article "Reconsidering North Korea Policy: How to Deal with a Nuclear Armed Divided States" written by Professor Masao Okonogi is posted on the website of SSDP.
- Japan-Korea Political Leaders Dialogue was held on February 10th,2023 at International House of Japan
- March 2022, A remembrance seminar "Remembering Professor Ezra Vogel" held on January 17, 2022
- March 2021, Japan-ROK Parliamentary Dialogue -Japan-ROK Cooperation in the Era of US-China Competition- held on March 11, 2021
- December 2020: The report of the Japan-ROK Future Dialogue held on November 21 to discuss "Japan-ROK Cooperation in the Post-Covid-19 Era
- October 2020: "Responses to COVID-19 and Agendas for the Post-COVID-19 Era", A Brief Overview of the Japan-Korea Experts Dialogue held on July 29,30, 2020
- October 2020: "The China-Taiwan Confrontation over Corona Response and Taiwan's Security" written by Makoto Ogata, Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
- May 2020: "Rivalries in the Middle East in New Security Dynamics", Written by Sayed Ghoneim, Major General (retired) of the Egyptian Armed Forces, Chairman, Institute for Global Security & Defence Affairs
- March 2020: The Japan-South Korea Relationship in a Cul-de-Sac--- Where is an Exit ? Masao Okonogi Professor Emeritus, Keio Universit
- December 2019: The Hong Kong Upheaval and the Future of Cross-Straits Relations－The 2019 Japan-Taiwan Strategic Dialogue Report OGATA, Makoto Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
- August 2019: Report; 2019 FUTURE CONSENSUS DIALOGUE --Sustainable Prosperity and Future of Korea-U.S.-Japan Cooperation-- By Future Consensus Institute (Yeosijae)
- June 2019: Report on India – Japan Security Dialogue 2019 by Ms. Vindu Mai Chotani, Ph.D Student, The University of Tokyo
June 2019: Four papers on Japan-India Cooperation submitted to India-Japan Security Dialogue 2019
Japan's Rationale for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision
Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, The Sasakawa Peace Foundation
The Significance and Possibilities of India-Japan Cooperation in the Concept of the Indo-Pacific
Toru ITO Associate Professor, National Defense Academy of Japan
Japan-India Defense Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific Context - Operationalizing the Security Aspect of the Indo-Pacific Vision –
Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)
India-US-Japan Defense Cooperation: What's next?
Dr. Satoru Nagao, Hudson Institute
- Japan's Rationale for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision
- November 2018: "The Present State of the Japanese Economy and Policy Issues" lectured by Motoshige Itoh, Professor Emeritus at the University of Tokyo.
- November 2018: "Expanding Social Security Expenses and Fiscal Reforms" lectured by Kazumasa Oguro, Professor at Hosei University.
- September 2018: "Taiwan Identity and Cross-Strait Relations and Trump's Taiwan Policy and the Future of Taiwan-US Relations-Discussion at The Second Japan-Taiwan Strategic Dialogue (June 21, 2018, Taipei)-" written by OGATA, Makoto
- September 2018: "Japan-Taiwan Dialogue 2018 Minutes", 21st June 2018, Taipei, Taiwan.
- July 2018: Report on The Second Japan – Philippines Strategic Dialogue prepared by Ms. Vindu Mai Chotani, Ph.D. Student, Graduate School of Public Policy, Tokyo University.
- May 2018: "Civilian Control "at Crisis"? – Perhaps Not, for the Case of the Field Sit-reps from SDF's South Sudan Mission" reported by Ippeita Nishida, Research Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- January 2018: "Fukushima, Genki？Project－Young Taiwanese volunteers introduce the facts on Fukushima's revival through documentary films－" reported by OGATA, Makoto, Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
- December 2017: "Commemorating a Quarter Century of Dispatches of the JSDF's PKO Units: Challenges and Possibilities in the Post South Sudan" written by Takayuki Shoji, Lecturer, Nihon University
- November 2017: "19th CCP National Congress" written by Mr. Bonji Ohara, Senior Research Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Fondation
- October 2017: "What is Japan's Role in the Indo-China border conflict?" written by Dr. NGAO,Satoru, Research Fellow, Institute for Future Engineering
- July 2017: "Overview of the Current Situation in Taiwan-" the Naturally Independent Generation" will affect the Taiwan"s politics-" written by Makoto Ogata MGE.(Ret.)
- June 2017: "Japan-U.S. Economic Dialogue" written by Mr.Takaaki Asano
- March 2017: "The Japan-Philippines Strategic Dialogue" written by Mr. Hideshi Tokuchi
- February, 2017: Current topic "The Importance of Japan's Security Role Under Trump" written by Dr. Satoru Nagao is posted on the SSDP website.
- December, 2016: Current topic "Widening Security Task: Will SDF do the Job?" written by Mr. Ippeita Nishida is posted on the SSDP website.
- March 2023,Research journal "Security Studies vol5 no1" (What Will Happen to European Security?―Facing the War in Ukraine) in English edition was published.
- January 2023, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 4)" - Defending Our Country – Defense Policy in a "New Cold War Era - was published.
- October 2022, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 3)" - Xi Jinping's China - Politics, Economy, Society and Diplomacy - was published.
- Jun 2022, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 2)" -The Russia-Ukraine War and Its Global Impact- was published.
- March 2022, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 1)"-What is Economic Security?- was published.
- December 2021, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 3 no 4)"-Korean Peninsula Situation- was published.
- September 2021, A research journal "Security Studies vol03 no03" -Asia's Security II- (English edition)
- June 2021, A research journal "Security Studies vol03 no02" -Asia's Security I- (English edition)
- March 2021: Research journal "Security Studies (vol3 no1) "- US Foreign Policy in the Biden Administration / The 2020 US Presidential Election and American Democracy -(English edition)
- December 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no4) "- Normalize Japan-South Korea Relations trough Dialogues -(English edition)
- September 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no3) "-The Novel Coronavirus and Security-(English edition)
- July 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no2) - Middle East Situation and Japan's Security - " (English edition) was published
- May 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no1) - Cyber, Space, Environment and Security - " March 2020 (English edition)
- February 2020, "A research journal "Security Studies (vol1 no4) " (English edition)"
- September 2019: A research journal "Security Studies (vol1 no3) " (English edition)
- August 2019: Korea-Japan Joint Seminar: FUTURE CONSENSUS DIALOGUE
- April 2019: "Security Studies (vol1 no2) April 2019"
- March 2019: A research journal "Security Studies vol1 no01" just published
- February 2019: The Denuclearization of North Korea and the Takeshima Issue
- December 2018: Former Vice Defense Minister Masahiro Akiyama's Memoirs (An Ad)
- November 2018: Participation in the Future Consensus Forum held in Beijing
- September 2018: "2018 Indo-Pacific Security Dialogue" reported by Masahiro Akiyama
- 2017 December: "The Butterfly Project-A possibility of showing a solution to the North Korea problem-"
- October 2017: Campaign on the problems with North Korea
- August 2017: A New Containment Policy Strategy
- June 2017: Korean peninsla
- March 2017: President Duterte
- February, 2017: Kazakhstan
- November, 2016: Participated in Astana Club 2016 held in Kazakhstan on November 14- 16, 2016.