SSDP

Analysis of the Trump Vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

Takeshi Iida

1. Introduction

In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Republican candidate Donald Trump outperformed Democratic candidate Kamala Harris not only in the number of electors he won but also in the popular voting ratio, realizing his return to the White House. It was the first time since 2004, amid the Iraq war, and only the second time since the 1990s, that a Republican candidate outperformed a Democratic candidate in the popular vote in any U.S. presidential election. Trump also won in all the battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. That was astonishing given the growing dominance of liberal ideas about major social issues at stake in American society, such as abortion and same-sex marriage,¹ and the continuing rise in the percentage of racial minorities in the population, considered to constitute the Democratic Party's long-standing support base. How was Trump able to win so many votes and get reelected?

According to prior studies (e.g., Sides et al. 2019), Trump's victory in the 2016 presidential election was credited to the shift of white working-class votes from the Democrats to the Republicans in the Midwest battleground states, allowing him to win these states by a narrow margin.² The initial argument was that economic factors such as widening income disparity may have been the reason why the white working class voted for Trump. Still, subsequent research revealed that racial factors had a greater impact than economic factors. In other words, the main factors inducing white working-class voters to support Trump were antipathy toward racial minorities, antipathy toward immigrants, and the perception that whites were treated unfairly. In addition, given that Hillary Clinton was the Democratic candidate in the 2016 presidential election, misogyny is considered to have contributed to increasing the Trump vote.

Taking into account the findings of previous studies, this paper analyzes the determinants of the Trump vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. It also discusses differences in policy opinions between Trump voters and Harris voters, particularly regarding security policy. This paper is a preliminary analysis made less than three weeks after the presidential election; a more detailed analysis will be undertaken by researchers and media outlets in, first of all, the United States.

2. Substantial Increase in the Trump Vote

First, we begin with an overview of the increase in the Trump vote using state-level data. Figure 1 shows the rate of change of the Trump vote by state: Trump has increased votes in his favor in more than two-thirds of the states, winning back six states he lost in the 2020 presidential election. Turnout in the recent presidential election is the second-highest in the postwar period, but it is about two points lower than in the previous election; this suggests that the rise in Trump's votes was due to increased support for him.

Fig. 1: The Rates of Change of Trump's Votes Comparing 2020 and 2024

Note: California, Colorado, Mississippi, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Utah are excluded because the vote count in these states has not been finalized as of November 21, 2024. Vote change rate (%) = (2024 votes / 2020 votes) × 100.

Then, in which states did the Trump vote increase? Figure 2 plots the percentage of the Hispanic population versus the rate of change of Trump's votes in each state. The figure suggests that states with a higher percentage of Hispanic population witnessed a significant increase in Trump votes. This is just an indication of correlation, not causation. However, a similar relationship was not found regarding other racial factors, such as the percentage of the white population or that of the black population.

Furthermore, Figure 3 plots the inflation rates for the immediate one-year period from October 2023 to October 2024 versus the rate of change of Trump's votes; almost no meaningful relationship is identified between them. Figure 4 plots the inflation rates between January 2021, when the Biden administration took office, and October 2024, versus the rate of change of Trump's votes; there is no relationship between them. In other words, as far as these figures suggest, it does not appear that Trump has increased votes in his favor in the states with high inflation rates.

That said, making inferences about individual voting behavior by an analysis of state-level aggregate data is fraught with problems. Above all, the states are too large a unit of analysis. Consequently, analysis in the next section will deal with individual-level data.

Fig. 2: The Percentages of Hispanic Population versus the Rate of Change of Trump's Votes

Note: Hispanic population percentages were calculated using the "Hispanic or Latino" population data included in the 2022 data from the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey.

Fig. 3: Inflation Rates in the Immediate One-year Period versus the Rate of Change of Trump's

Note: The inflation rates in the most recent one-year period were calculated using inflation rate data for October 2023-October 2024 included in the "State Inflation Tracker" run by the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress.

Fig. 4: Inflation Rates under the Biden Administration versus the Rate of Change of Trump's

Note: The inflation rates in the most recent year were calculated using inflation rate data for January 2021-October 2024 included in the "State Inflation Tracker" run by the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress.

3. White People's Discrimination Awareness, Misogyny, Approval/Disapproval of Deportation of Illegal Immigrants, and the Trump Vote

The research team led by the author conducted surveys before and after the recent presidential election to obtain individual-level data on American citizens' voting behavior.³ The pre-election survey was conducted on the internet from October 31, 2024, to November 3, 2024, two days before the election, on a sample of 1,500 U.S. citizens aged 18 and older, selected from Dynata's registered monitors in a way to represent a microcosm of the American electorate in terms of gender, age, and area of residence. The post-election survey was conducted with the 1,500 people, who had responded to the pre-election one, from November 6, hours after Harris's concession speech, through November 11. A total of 801 of them responded.

Using these data, the research team conducted a multivariate analysis employing a logistic regression model with vote choice (Trump votes or Harris votes) as the dependent variable.⁴ The independent variables include race (white or non-white), gender (male or non-male), age, education (college graduate or non-college degree), income (above/below median household income), Democratic identification (yes or others), Republican identification (yes or others), household economic status anxiety (ranging from 1: "Not at all worried" to 5: "Extremely worried"), awareness of the existence of discrimination against blacks (ranging from 1: "None at all" to 5: "A great deal"), awareness of the existence of discrimination against Hispanics (ditto), awareness of the existence of discrimination against Asians (ditto), awareness of the existence of discrimination against whites (ditto), the temperature of feelings toward feminists (1 to 100), the temperature of feelings toward sexual minorities (ditto), and agreeing or disagreeing with the deportation of illegal immigrants (ranging from 1: "Strongly disagree" to 5: "Strongly agree"). Their individual effects were estimated while taking each other's effects into account. The results indicate that while the influence of anxiety about one's household economic situation was not significant, awareness of the existence of discrimination against whites, the temperature of feelings toward feminists, and agreeing or disagreeing with the deportation of illegal immigrants were particular factors that significantly split votes between Trump and Harris.

Figure 5 shows how the predicted probability of voting for Trump changes as voters become aware of discrimination against whites. Regarding the question asking how much discrimination exists against whites in the United States today, respondents who answer "A great deal" tend to vote for Trump. For example, as for respondents who answer that discrimination against whites does not exist at all, their probability of voting for Trump is about 25%; as for respondents who answer that a great deal of such discrimination exists, their probability of voting for Trump rises to over 60%. Figure 6 shows the relationship between awareness of the existence of discrimination against whites and the Trump vote, dividing respondents into white voters and other voters: white voters are more likely than other voters to vote for Trump when they become aware of the existence of discrimination against whites; white voters who answer that there is a great deal of discrimination against whites vote for Trump with a probability of as high as 70%. Since a similar relationship is not observable for voters other than white working-class voters, the awareness of the existence of discrimination against whites encourages not only white working-class voters but also white voters as a whole to vote for Trump.

Fig. 5: Voters' Awareness of the Existence of Discrimination against Whites versus the

Note: Created using data from the research team led by the author. The predicted probability was calculated by fixing other independent variables at their mean values. The grey area represents the 95% confidence interval for the predicted probability estimates.

Figure 7 illustrates how antipathy toward feminists affects the predicted probability of voting for Trump. Respondents were asked about the temperature of their feelings toward feminists by describing it on the feeling thermometer, where 0 represents the coldest feelings toward feminists, 100 the warmest feelings, and 50 neither sympathy nor antipathy. As the temperature of respondents' feelings toward feminists is nearer to 0 or they harbor more intensive antipathy against feminists, the probability of their voting for Trump rises. For example, if a respondent harbors strong antipathy against feminists or the temperature of his/her feelings toward feminists is 0, the probability of voting for Trump exceeds 60%; the probability of voting for Trump drops to just over 20% with those who cherish strong sympathy toward feminists or the temperature of their feelings toward feminists is 100. Figure 8 examines the relationship between the temperature of feelings toward feminists and the Trump vote, dividing respondents into white working-class and others. White working-class respondents are more likely than other respondents to vote for Trump because of their antipathy toward feminists; a portion of them, the temperature of whose feelings toward feminists is 0, has over 70% probability of voting for Trump. From the above, it is apparent that misogyny is a critical factor in splitting votes between Trump and Harris.

Fig. 6: White Voters' Awareness of the Existence of Discrimination against Whites versus the

Note: Created using data processed by the research team led by the author. The predicted probability was calculated by fixing other independent variables fixed at their mean values.

Figure 9 illustrates how the predicted probability of voting for Trump varies following the strength of one's approval of deporting illegal immigrants. When a person endorses the deportation of illegal immigrants, the probability of his/her voting for Trump rises: the likelihood of voting for Trump is over 70% with a person who strongly agrees with deporting undocumented immigrants. Figure 10, which examines this relationship by dividing respondents into white working-class and others, also reveals that among white workers, agreeing or disagreeing with deporting illegal immigrants, in particular, is closely related to whether or not to vote for Trump. In other words, among white workers, the deportation of illegal immigrants is a factor that helps to split votes between Trump and Harris.

Fig. 7: Temperature of Feelings toward Feminists versus the Predicted Probability of Voting for

Note: Created using data processed by the research team led by the author. The predicted probability was calculated by fixing other independent variables at their mean values. The grey area represents the 95% confidence interval for the predicted probability estimates.

Fig. 8: Temperature of Feelings of White Working-Class Voters toward Feminists versus the

Note: Created using data processed by the research team led by the author. The predicted probability was calculated by fixing other independent variables at their mean values. The white working class is defined as white people with no college degree and household income below the median.

Fig. 9: Agreeing or Disagreeing with Deporting Illegal Immigrants versus the Predicted

Note: Created using data processed by the research team led by the author. The predicted probability was calculated by fixing other independent variables at their mean values. The grey area represents the 95% confidence interval for the predicted probability estimates.

Fig. 10: White Working-Class Voters' Agreeing or Disagreeing with Deporting Illegal

Note: Created using data processed by the research led by the author. The predicted probability was calculated by fixing other independent variables at their mean values. The white working class is defined as white people with no college degree and household income below the median.

4. Differences of Opinion over Policy between Trump and Harris Voters

Lastly, we briefly review the differences in opinion over policy between Trump and Harris voters. Figure 11 above shows the distribution of responses from Trump and Harris voters, respectively, to the question, "Should the United States promote economic policies that prioritize U.S. economic interests, even if such policies hurt U.S. relationships with its military allies?" 62.5% of Trump voters answered "Agree," much higher than 40.3% of Harris voters who answered the same. Figure 11 below shows the distribution of responses to the earlier question about agreeing or disagreeing with deporting unauthorized immigrants, presented by voters in favor of each presidential candidate: the percentages of voters supporting each candidate who answered in the affirmative widely vary. "Strongly agree" accounts for the highest ratio of Trump voters' responses; on the other hand, "Strongly disagree" accounts for the highest percentage of Harris voters' responses, thus indicating a complete polarization of opinion between Trump and Harris voters over the deportation of illegal immigrants.

Fig. 11: Differences of Opinion over Policy between Trump and Harris Voters (Distribution of Responses)

Note: Created using data processed by the research team led by the author.

Our research quantified responses about eight policy opinions (including the two above) into five values from 1: "Strongly disagree" to 5: "Strongly agree." Figure 12 shows differences in the mean values of quantified responses between Trump and Harris voters. The horizontal bar represents a 95% confidence interval for the estimated difference in mean values. When it straddles the vertical line representing "0," the difference in the mean values of quantified responses between Trump and Harris voters is statistically significant at the 5% level, at least. Since our research subtracts the mean values of quantified responses of Harris voters from the mean values of quantified responses of Trump voters, a positive difference means that Trump voters agree with a specific policy opinion more than Harris voters; a negative difference means that Harris voters agree with a specific policy opinion more than Trump voters. When examining the policy opinions widely at odds between the two groups, Trump voters are more likely than Harris voters to: oppose free trade, prioritize U.S. economic interests over those of US allies, reject the idea of respecting international treaty obligations at the expense of U.S. national interests, support strict immigration policies, agree with deporting unauthorized immigrants, and oppose accepting refugees.

Fig. 12: Differences in Policy Opinions between Trump and Harris Voters (Mean Values)

Note: Created by using data processed by the research team led by the author. Responses about each policy opinion were quantified into five values from "1: Strongly disagree" to "5: Strongly agree." This figure shows differences in the mean values of quantified responses between Trump and Harris voters. The horizontal bars represent the 95% confidence intervals of the estimated differences in the mean values; when they straddle "0," differences in the mean values of quantified responses between Trump and Harris voters are statistically significant at the 5% level, at least.

The following two figures show Trump and Harris voters' agreeing or disagreeing with U.S. armed intervention under different security situations. Figure 13 above illustrates each camp's voters' reaction to U.S. military intervention to deal with "Russia attacking a NATO ally like Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia." Although a majority of Trump voters agree with U.S. military intervention in that situation, their percentage is lower than that of Harris voters who support U.S. military intervention under that particular situation; the majority response from Trump voters is "Somewhat agree," suggesting a weak level of agreement. Figure 13 below shows voters' agreeing or disagreeing with U.S. military intervention when China attacks Japan. It suggests that Trump voters are more reluctant to military intervention than Harris voters but without so pronounced a difference between them.

Fig. 13: Difference in Opinion about U.S. Military Intervention between Trump Voters and

Note: Created using data processed by the research team led by the author.

We have quantified responses about U.S. military intervention under seven security situations (including the two above) into five values from 1: "Strongly disapprove" to 5: "Strongly approve." Figure 14 shows differences in the mean values of quantified responses between Trump and Harris voters. Trump voters are more reluctant than Harris voters to intervene in each contingency of "if North Korea attacks South Korea," "if Russia attacks a NATO ally," "if North Korea attacks Japan," or "if China attacks Japan." On the other hand, there is no significant disparity between Trump voters and Harris voters in their approval ratings of U.S. military intervention in each contingency of "if China attacks Taiwan," "if China attacks the Philippines," or "if Iran attacks Israel." To be precise, Trump voters were slightly more supportive of military intervention than Harris voters "if Iran attacks Israel." In general, however, Trump voters are inclined to be more reluctant about military intervention.

Fig. 14 Differences in Opinion about Military Intervention between Trump Voters and Harris

Note: Created by using data processed by the research team led by the author. Responses were quantified into five values from "1: Strongly disapprove" to "5: Strongly approve." The figure shows differences in the mean values of quantified responses between Trump and Harris voters. The horizontal bars represent the 95% confidence intervals of the estimated differences; when they straddle "0," the differences in the mean values of quantified responses between Trump and Harris voters are statistically significant at the 5% level, at least.

5. Conclusion

In this paper, we have confirmed the substantial growth of the Trump vote in the recent presidential election by using state-level data, analyzed drivers of the Trump vote based on individual-level data, and examined differences in policy opinions between Trump and Harris voters. The findings include the following: Trump substantially increased votes in his favor in more than two-thirds of the states; increased awareness of discrimination against white individuals in American society, growing antipathy toward feminists, and a rising support for the deportation of illegal immigrants combined to motivate many voters to cast their ballots in favor of Trump; Trump voters seek more than Harris voters to pursue US interests in the international society and are more reluctant than Harris voters to intervene in armed conflict―not that the majority of Trump voters are opposed to intervention. These findings are consistent with those from previous studies.

Why was Trump able to increase votes in his favor in the recent presidential election to outperform Harris in popular votes? One possible explanation is Harris's attributes. The fact that Harris is a person of color and a woman may have helped amplify feelings of discrimination against whites (i.e., the white consciousness that whites are unfairly treated compared to other racial minorities) and the influence of misogyny on voting behavior. The problem of illegal immigration, which worsened under the Biden administration, may also have helped increase voters in favor of deporting illegal immigrants and, as a result, cultivate new Trump votes.

However, the validity of these claims needs to be verified by a comparative study with the 2020 presidential election. In this sense, they are hypothetical. We look forward to a more in-depth comparative analysis by researchers and the media employing causal inference methods.

(Professor, Doshisha University)

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  0. Front Cover
  1. Changes in the Security Environment Surrounding Japan - Shifting Power Balance and the Three Front Threats Ken Jimbo
  2. How Will "Japan Contingencies" Emerge? Osamu Onoda
  3. The Japan-US Alliance Revisited: Is it Dependable? Chikako Kawakatsu Ueki
  4. A New Phase of Defense Diplomacy and Defense Production and Technology Base Ippeita Nishida, Tsuneo Watanabe
  5. Intelligence Activities in the Post-Ukraine War Era Jun Nagashima
  6. Responding to the Nuclear Threat Masashi Murano
  7. No Time to Lose for Improving Japan's Defense Capabilities - Can the JSDF Defend the Homeland? - Ryoichi Oriki
  8. Toward the Formulation of a New "National Security Strategy" Hideshi Tokuchi
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• March 2022, "Economic Security in the Free Trade Regime" written by Kazuto Suzuki, Professor, the University of Tokyo
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• December 2021, "What to Do with the Relations with North Korea?" written by Hitoshi Tanaka, Chairman for Institute for International Strategy at the Japan Research Institute.
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• September 2021, "The Strategic Development of Japanese Security Cooperation under Superpower Competition and the Development of the FOIP and its Operationalization" written by Nobushige Takamizawa, Visiting Professor, Graduate School of Public Policy, The University of Tokyo.
• August 2021, "Security Perceptions of Central Asian Countries--- From the Perspective of China Studies ---" written by Shin Kawashima, Professor, the University of Tokyo.
• August 2021, "Security in the Indian Ocean Region---Implication of the Galwan Incident for QUAD in the Indo-Pacific" written by Dr. Satoru Nagao, Fellow (Non-Resident), Hudson Institute.
• August 2021, "Easternization and Security in Asia" written by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation.
• July 2021, "The Ideas of "Autonomy" and "Self-Reliance" in Contemporary India's Foreign Strategy" written by Kazutoshi TAMARI, Associate Professor,Chukyo University.
• July 2021, "Thailand's Security Policies and Threat Perceptions" written by Saya Kiba, Associate Professor, Komatsu University, Faculty of Intercultural Communication.
• July 2021, "Myanmar's Security Perceptions and the February 1 Coup d'Etat" written by Yoshihiro Nakanishi, Associate Professor, Kyoto University.
• July 2021, "Australia's Security Perceptions and the "Asia Threat"" written byTomohiko Satake, Senior Fellow, Defense Policy Division, Policy Studies Department, NIDS .
• June 2021, "The Indo-Pacific Regional Architecture: Its Future--- Multipolar Order Beyond US-China Relations ---" by Tsutomu Kikuchi, Professor, Aoyama Gakuin University
• June 2021, "The Quad Plus in the Security of Asia: Its Significance and Outlook" by Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
• June 2021, "Indonesian Views and Perceptions on National Security" by Nobuhiro Aizawa, Associate Professor, The Graduate School of Social and Cultural Studies, Kyushu University
• June 2021, "Normalized Tensions in the Cross-Strait Relations--- Structural Changes in Taiwanese Society and the Xi Jinping Administration's Strategic Shift ---" by Yasuhiro Matsuda, Professor, The University of Tokyo
• June 2021, "China's Maritime Strategy and Responses of the United States and Japan" by Yoji Koda, Former Commander in Chief, Self Defense Fleet
• June 2021, "The South China Issues from the Perspective of the International Law Order",by Shigeki Sakamoto, Emeritus Professor, Kobe University
• May 2021, "Indonesian Views and Perceptions on National Security" by Nobuhiro Aizawa, Associate Professor, Kyushu University
• May, 2021, "The Philippine Foreign and Security Policy Perspective" written by Yusuke Takagi Associate Professor,National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
• May, 2021, "Vietnam's Security: Challenges and Responses" written by Tomotaka Shoji Head, Asia and Africa Division, Regional Studies Department, National Institute for Defense Studies
• March, 2021, "Can the Biden Administration Restore America as a Global Leader?" written by Matake Kamiya, Professor, the National Defense Academy of Japan.
• March, 2021, "The Biden Administration and Japan's Security Strategy" written by Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
• February,2021, "US Foreign and Security Policy Direction Viewed from the Biden Administration's Lineup" written by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
• February,2021, "Trade Policies of the Biden Administration" written by Takaaki Asano, Senior Analyst, Sumitomo Corporation Global Research Co. Ltd.
• February,2021, "The Biden Administration's Policy toward Russia" written by Taisuke Abiru, Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
• January,2021, "Will US Policy Toward China Change?" lectured by Ryo Sahashi, Associate Professor, the University of Tokyo
• January,2021, "How will China View the Biden Administration?" written by Bonji Ohara, Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
• January,2021, "An Assessment of the 2020 US Presidential Election－American Democracy Now－" lectured by Fumiaki Kubo, Professor, the University of Tokyo
• January,2021, "Two Trumpian Mysteries－Why did Trump win over 70 million votes? Why is his outrageous behavior unchecked?－" lectured by Kazuhiro Maeshima, Professor, Sophia University
• September, 2020, "The Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic and Internationa Relationsl" by Matake Kamiya, Professor, National Defense Academy of Japan
• September, 2020, "The Policy Agenda for the Xi Jinping Administration- COVID-19 Countermeasures and China's International Relations -" by Shin Kawashima, Professor, The University of Tokyo
• "Control in the United States and International Relations" by Koji Murata, Professor, Doshisha University
• September, 2020, "The EU's Response to COVID-19 and International Relations" by Yuichi Hosoya, Professor, Keio University
• August, 2020, "The Corona Crisis Seen from a Macroeconomic Perspective" written by Motoshige Itoh, Professor Emeritus, The University of Tokyo
• August, 2020, "The Coronavirus Pandemic and Japan's Infectious Disease Control" written by Takashi Mihara, Senior Research Fellow, NLI Research Institute
• August, 2020, "Infectious Disease Crisis Control in Japan- Recommendations on an Exit Strategy -" written by Kazumasa Oguro, Professor, Hosei University
• August, 2020, "Security against Infectious Disease Threats --- Policy Responses Abroad" written by Takashi Sekiyama, Associate Professor, Kyoto University
• June 2020,"Transformation of the International Order in the Middle East--- Varying Degrees of "Stateness" and Three Directions of the New Order" written by Satoshi Ikeuchi, Professor, Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo
• June 2020,"Destabilization in the Middle East and its Impacts on Japan's Energy Security" written by Amane Kobayashi, Research Fellow, The Institute of Energy Economics
• May 2020: Urgent Recommendations "Toward a V-shaped Recovery after the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic "Coronavirus Testing for All" --- the First Step of the Next Phase"
• May 2020: "US Diplomacy toward Iran: Economic Sanctions as a Diplomatic Tool" Hiroki Sugita Columnist, Kyodo News
• "Russian Factors in the Middle East" Taisuke Abiru Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
• "The SDF Dispatches to the Middle East --- History and Significance" Ippeita Nishida Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
• March 2020, "Space and Security" Kazuto Suzuki Professor, Hokkaido University
• March 2020, "The US Security Space Policy --- With a Focus on the Establishment of Two Space Forces" Yasuhito Fukushima Chief Researcher, The National Institute for Defense Studies
• March 2020, "China's Recent Activities in Space and Cyberspace" Bonji Ohara Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
• March 2020, "Environmental Security and Japan" Takashi Sekiyama Associate Professor, Kyoto University
• March 2020, "Changes in Global Environment and Security --- US Security Strategy" Hideshi Tokuchi Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)
• February 2020, "Cyberspace Security" Motohiro Tsuchiya Professor, Keio University
• February 2020, "Japan's Space and Cyberspace Policy" Yukinari Hirose Former President of the National Institute for Defense Studies
• December 2019, "The US-China Confrontation --- Where Will Hegemony Reside Next?" Akio Takahara Professor, the University of Tokyo
• December 2019, "Challenges Facing the Chinese Economy" Osamu Tanaka Chief Senior Researcher, Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO
• December 2019, "US Strategic Perception on China: Implications for US Allied Partners" Tsuneo Watanabe Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
• November 2019, "The Xi Jinping Administration's View of the International Order– China's emphasis on United Nations diplomacy and liberal economic policies−" Shin Kawashima, Professor, the University of Tokyo
• November 2019, "The Future of China's Security Strategy" Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
• November 2019, "China --- Its Confidence and Anxiety" Bonji Ohara, Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
• August 2019: Several Perspectives on the Korean Peninsula Issue--- The Deteriorating Japan-South Korea Relationship and the Uncertain Denuclearization of North Korea --- By Masahiro Akiyama Chairman, the SSDP
• July 2019, "An Outlook on the Denuclearization of North Korea--- What is the Stance of North Korea?---", Junya Nishino, Professor, Keio University
• July 2019, "An Outlook on the Denuclearization of North Korea --- How will the US move?", Narushige Michishita, Vice President, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
• July 2019, "Discussion on Denuclearization of North Korea", SSDP Discussion Meeting on May 8, 2019
• May 2019: "Current Status and Prospects of South Korea and Japan's Frictions over History: How to address the Judicial Problems", Masao Okonogi, Professor Emeritus, Keio University
• May 2019: "South Korea and Japan's Frictions over History" (Comments), Junya Nishino, Professor, Keio University
• May 2019: Japan and South Korea Relationships (Question & Answer)
• March 2019: "The Present State and Prospects of the Indian Economy and Economic Policies" written by Koji Kobayashi, Senior Economist Mizuho Research Institute Ltd.
• March 2019: "The "Modi diplomacy" in the History of Indian diplomacy--- Departure from or maintenance of the traditional diplomacy? ---" written by Toru Ito, The National Defense Academy of Japan
• February 2019: Dynamics of Indian Politics and the 2019 General Elections, written by Chiharu Takenaka, Professor of Rikkyo University
• February 2019: "Cooperative Strategy" to Realize "Competitive Strategy"--- The composite structure of Japan's "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" strategy (vision) ---, written by Matake Kamiya, Professor at The National Defense Academy of Japan
• January 2019:, A paper, "How will the US midterm elections results affect the Trump administration's foreign policy for 2019?" written by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation
• January 2019:, A paper, "The Present and Future of the International Trade Order" , written by Akihiko Tamura, Professor, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
• December 2018: The US-China Competition and Japan, written by Ryo Sahashi, Professor at Kanagawa University
• December 2018: An Outlook for the US-China Trade War―What makes the two economically interdependent superpowers confront each other?―, written by Takashi Sekiyama, Associate professor at Toyo University
• September 2018: Proposal, "The Denuclearization of North Korea and the Restoration of Peace in the Korean Peninsula― Correct Perceptions and Eight Proposals on Japan's North Korea Diplomacy－" edited by the Society of Security and Diplomatic Policy Studies
• September 2018: "The Taiwan Policy of the Xi Jinping Administration in its Second Term: An Outlook on Cross-Strait Relations in the New Era" written by Yasuhiro Matsuda, Professor of the Tokyo University
• July 2018: "The EU States and Russia on North Korea Issues- Expansion of Influence through Diplomacy: Attempts and Limitations -" lectured by Yuichi Hosoya, Professor of Keio University
• "An Assessment of the US-North Korea Summit and an Outlook for the Future of the Korean Peninsula" lectured by Junya Nishino, Professor of Keio University
• "Korean Peninsula Issue and Japan's Future Security Policy" written by Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow of National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
• July 2018: "US North Korea policy affected by personnel changes in the Trump administration" lectured by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation.
• "China-North Korea relationship under Xi Jinping" lectured by Shin Kawashima, Professor of the Tokyo University.
• "North Korean Denuclearization and Russia" lectured by Nobuo Shimotomai, Professor of the Hosei University.
• March 2018: "The Network Hegemony Theory for a Security Architecture in The Asia Pacific Region" lectured by Masahiro Akiyama, Chairman, the Society of Security and Diplomatic Policy Studies
• January 2018: "A Destabilized Middle East" lectured by Koichiro Tanaka, Professor, Keio University
• December 2017: "Problems in Sino-Japanese Relations, 1992-2042" lectured by Ezra F. Vogel, Professor of the Social Sciences Emeritus at Harvard University
• November 2017: "The Future of the Asia-Pacific Region" written by Yoriko Kawaguchi, Fellow, the Meiji Institute for Global Affairs, Former Minister Foreign Affairs
• October 2017: "A New Trend in India's Foreign Policy and Japan" Written by HIROSE,Takako, Professor, Senshu University
• August 2017: "The Shocks that shook the Transatlantic World and their Implication for Japan's Foreign Policy" written by HOSOYA, Yuichi, Professor, Keio University
• August 2017: "Does Economic Interdependence not Encourage Collaboration? ―Thinking Japan-China Relations from an Economic Perspective―" written by Takashi SEKIYAMA, Ph.D., Toyo University
• July 2017: Proposal article "The Trump Administration's Impact on the Cross-Strait Relations" written by Yasuhiro Matsuda, Ph.D.
• June 2017: Proposal article "The outlook for the relationship between two great powers and implications for Japanese diplomacy" written by Professor Shin Kawashima
• May 2017: (Emergency Proposal) Facing the Inconvenient Truth: Re-examining Policy for Peace and Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula (Chief author, Masao Okonogi)
• March 2017: "Economic Influences of the Trump Administration" written by Professor Motoshige Ito
• February, 2017: Proposal article "Trump's Foreign and Security Policy - Unpredictable President, Realistic Secretaries - " written by Mr. Tsuneo Watanabe is posted on the website of SSDP.
• December, 2016: Proposal article "Reconsidering North Korea Policy: How to Deal with a Nuclear Armed Divided States" written by Professor Masao Okonogi is posted on the website of SSDP.

• Taiwan-Japan Round Table on August 24th, at Capital Tokyu Hotel
• Japan-Korea Political Leaders Dialogue was held on February 10th,2023 at International House of Japan
• March 2022, A remembrance seminar "Remembering Professor Ezra Vogel" held on January 17, 2022
• March 2021, Japan-ROK Parliamentary Dialogue -Japan-ROK Cooperation in the Era of US-China Competition- held on March 11, 2021
• December 2020: The report of the Japan-ROK Future Dialogue held on November 21 to discuss "Japan-ROK Cooperation in the Post-Covid-19 Era
• October 2020: "Responses to COVID-19 and Agendas for the Post-COVID-19 Era", A Brief Overview of the Japan-Korea Experts Dialogue held on July 29,30, 2020
• October 2020: "The China-Taiwan Confrontation over Corona Response and Taiwan's Security" written by Makoto Ogata, Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
• May 2020: "Rivalries in the Middle East in New Security Dynamics", Written by Sayed Ghoneim, Major General (retired) of the Egyptian Armed Forces, Chairman, Institute for Global Security & Defence Affairs
• March 2020: The Japan-South Korea Relationship in a Cul-de-Sac--- Where is an Exit ? Masao Okonogi Professor Emeritus, Keio Universit
• December 2019: The Hong Kong Upheaval and the Future of Cross-Straits Relations－The 2019 Japan-Taiwan Strategic Dialogue Report OGATA, Makoto Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
• August 2019: Report; 2019 FUTURE CONSENSUS DIALOGUE --Sustainable Prosperity and Future of Korea-U.S.-Japan Cooperation-- By Future Consensus Institute (Yeosijae)
• June 2019: Report on India – Japan Security Dialogue 2019 by Ms. Vindu Mai Chotani, Ph.D Student, The University of Tokyo
• June 2019: Four papers on Japan-India Cooperation submitted to India-Japan Security Dialogue 2019
  1. Japan's Rationale for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision
     Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, The Sasakawa Peace Foundation
  2. The Significance and Possibilities of India-Japan Cooperation in the Concept of the Indo-Pacific
     Toru ITO Associate Professor, National Defense Academy of Japan
  3. Japan-India Defense Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific Context - Operationalizing the Security Aspect of the Indo-Pacific Vision –
     Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)
  4. India-US-Japan Defense Cooperation: What's next?
     Dr. Satoru Nagao, Hudson Institute
• November 2018: "The Present State of the Japanese Economy and Policy Issues" lectured by Motoshige Itoh, Professor Emeritus at the University of Tokyo.
• November 2018: "Expanding Social Security Expenses and Fiscal Reforms" lectured by Kazumasa Oguro, Professor at Hosei University.
• September 2018: "Taiwan Identity and Cross-Strait Relations and Trump's Taiwan Policy and the Future of Taiwan-US Relations-Discussion at The Second Japan-Taiwan Strategic Dialogue (June 21, 2018, Taipei)-" written by OGATA, Makoto
• September 2018: "Japan-Taiwan Dialogue 2018 Minutes", 21st June 2018, Taipei, Taiwan.
• July 2018: Report on The Second Japan – Philippines Strategic Dialogue prepared by Ms. Vindu Mai Chotani, Ph.D. Student, Graduate School of Public Policy, Tokyo University.
• May 2018: "Civilian Control "at Crisis"? – Perhaps Not, for the Case of the Field Sit-reps from SDF's South Sudan Mission" reported by Ippeita Nishida, Research Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation
• January 2018: "Fukushima, Genki？Project－Young Taiwanese volunteers introduce the facts on Fukushima's revival through documentary films－" reported by OGATA, Makoto, Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
• December 2017: "Commemorating a Quarter Century of Dispatches of the JSDF's PKO Units: Challenges and Possibilities in the Post South Sudan" written by Takayuki Shoji, Lecturer, Nihon University
• November 2017: "19th CCP National Congress" written by Mr. Bonji Ohara, Senior Research Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Fondation
• October 2017: "What is Japan's Role in the Indo-China border conflict?" written by Dr. NGAO,Satoru, Research Fellow, Institute for Future Engineering
• July 2017: "Overview of the Current Situation in Taiwan-" the Naturally Independent Generation" will affect the Taiwan"s politics-" written by Makoto Ogata MGE.(Ret.)
• June 2017: "Japan-U.S. Economic Dialogue" written by Mr.Takaaki Asano
• March 2017: "The Japan-Philippines Strategic Dialogue" written by Mr. Hideshi Tokuchi
• February, 2017: Current topic "The Importance of Japan's Security Role Under Trump" written by Dr. Satoru Nagao is posted on the SSDP website.
• December, 2016: Current topic "Widening Security Task: Will SDF do the Job?" written by Mr. Ippeita Nishida is posted on the SSDP website.

• July 2024, Research journal "Security Studies vol6 no2" (How Has South Korea Changed under the Yoon Suk-yeol Administration?) in English edition was published.
• April 2024, Research journal "Security Studies vol6 no1" (The Middle East in Turmoil) in English edition was published.
• December 2023, Research journal "Security Studies vol5 no4" (What is th Global South?) in English edition was published.
• September 2023, Research journal "Security Studies vol5 no3" (Hegemonic America: Where It's Headed) in English edition was published.
• June 2023,Research journal "Security Studies vol5 no2" (Nuclear Crisis Scenarios Facing Japan and the Outlook of Nuclear Deterrence and Arms Control and Disarmament) in English edition was published.
• March 2023,Research journal "Security Studies vol5 no1" (What Will Happen to European Security?―Facing the War in Ukraine) in English edition was published.
• January 2023, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 4)" - Defending Our Country – Defense Policy in a "New Cold War Era - was published.
• October 2022, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 3)" - Xi Jinping's China - Politics, Economy, Society and Diplomacy - was published.
• Jun 2022, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 2)" -The Russia-Ukraine War and Its Global Impact- was published.
• March 2022, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 1)"-What is Economic Security?- was published.
• December 2021, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 3 no 4)"-Korean Peninsula Situation- was published.
• September 2021, A research journal "Security Studies vol03 no03" -Asia's Security II- (English edition)
• June 2021, A research journal "Security Studies vol03 no02" -Asia's Security I- (English edition)
• March 2021: Research journal "Security Studies (vol3 no1) "- US Foreign Policy in the Biden Administration / The 2020 US Presidential Election and American Democracy -(English edition)
• December 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no4) "- Normalize Japan-South Korea Relations trough Dialogues -(English edition)
• September 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no3) "-The Novel Coronavirus and Security-(English edition)
• July 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no2) - Middle East Situation and Japan's Security - " (English edition) was published
• May 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no1) - Cyber, Space, Environment and Security - " March 2020 (English edition)
• February 2020, "A research journal "Security Studies (vol1 no4) " (English edition)"
• September 2019: A research journal "Security Studies (vol1 no3) " (English edition)
• August 2019: Korea-Japan Joint Seminar: FUTURE CONSENSUS DIALOGUE
• April 2019: "Security Studies (vol1 no2) April 2019"
• March 2019: A research journal "Security Studies vol1 no01" just published
• February 2019: The Denuclearization of North Korea and the Takeshima Issue
• December 2018: Former Vice Defense Minister Masahiro Akiyama's Memoirs (An Ad)
• November 2018: Participation in the Future Consensus Forum held in Beijing
• September 2018: "2018 Indo-Pacific Security Dialogue" reported by Masahiro Akiyama
• 2017 December: "The Butterfly Project-A possibility of showing a solution to the North Korea problem-"
• October 2017: Campaign on the problems with North Korea
• August 2017: A New Containment Policy Strategy
• June 2017: Korean peninsla
• March 2017: President Duterte
• February, 2017: Kazakhstan
• November, 2016: Participated in Astana Club 2016 held in Kazakhstan on November 14- 16, 2016.