The Biden Administration's North Korea Policy: Its Low Priority and Looming Crises
The Biden administration characterizes its foreign policy as "not Trump's but not Obama's, either." To demonstrate its legitimacy to the world, the Biden administration needs to be the antithesis of the Trump administration, which gave the impression of turning its back on the international community with its "America First" policy. On the other hand, it is imperative for President Biden or his successor Democratic presidential candidate to retain the support of US voters to win the 2024 presidential election. To this end, the "foreign policy for the middle class" that emphasizes US domestic politics is also important. They must also highlight their differences from the former Obama administration.
Its North Korea policy may be what will best distinguish the Biden administration's policy stance from the former Trump and Obama administrations. President Trump garnered no results from his "theatrical" performance at the first-ever US-North Korea summit with North Korean Workers' Party Chairman Kim Jong-un. It is easy for President Biden to underscore his difference from Trump, who failed to stop North Korea's nuclear development. The Obama administration that called for "strategic patience" with North Korea also failed to produce any tangible results to check North Korea's nuclear development. Its efforts resulted in only allowing North Korea more time to develop nuclear weapons and missiles. President Biden and Secretary of State Blinken, who were Vice President and Deputy Secretary of State, respectively, in the Obama administration, need to exhibit the difference in their administration from that of the Obama administration. They are well aware of this point in formulating the administration's North Korea policy.
However, due to its policy of rivalry and competition toward China, an inheritance from the Trump administration, the Biden administration cannot ask for cooperation nor seek the influence of China to deal with North Korea. Its North Korea policy is subordinate to its China policy. Now, the effectiveness of President Biden's North Korea policy is deemed to be questionable. After the Biden administration completed a review of its North Korea policy at the end of April 2021, Daniel Sneider, a long-time journalist and an observer of US diplomacy in Asia, wrote an article titled "Does Biden have a North Korea Policy? Not Really," asking a poignant question. 1
The Biden administration's policy of emphasizing its allies is a crucial factor helping to promote its rivalry and competition policy toward China. Meanwhile, South Korea and Japan, the two most important partners for the United States in its confrontation with China, widely differ from the United States in their stances toward North Korea. This constitutes a major constraint on the Biden administration's North Korea policy. This paper will discuss the direction of the Biden administration's North Korea policy and its current stagnation.
Low Priority Given to US North Korea Policy Seen from the US-ROK Summit
At the end of April 2021, when it finished a review of its North Korea policy, the Biden administration came up with a "calibrated practical approach." This is partly a continuation of the policy of the former administration --- taking over the joint statement signed by President Trump and Chairman Kim and keeping open the window for dialogue. In the meantime, the Biden administration has clarified its difference from the previous administration: It will not adopt the method of concluding a deal through summit talks. If North Korea understands this basic stance of the Biden administration and agrees to continue the dialogue, the administration will sit at the negotiation table. 2
To maintain political continuity from the previous administration, President Biden appointed Sung Kim, who had been in charge of US-North Korea negotiations as US ambassador to the Philippines in the Trump administration, as Special Envoy for North Korea. The problem of the previous administration's North Korea policy was that it prioritized President Trump's gaining political points without examining the content of the summit agreement. Sung Kim's appointment seems to have a dual purpose: sending a message to North Korea that the window for dialogue is not closed; getting North Korea to reaffirm the "firm and unwavering commitment to the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula" 3 that Chairman Kim expressed in return for President Trump's "security assurance to North Korea" in the US-North Korea Joint Statement issued in Singapore in June 2018.
The appointment of Sung Kim as Special Envoy for North Korea was a measure to benefit the South Korean government. It was made public at a press conference following the US-ROK summit on May 21, 2021. Kim was engaged in drafting the 2018 US-North Korea Joint Statement; he is fluent in Korean and has many acquaintances in South Korea. The South Korean side welcomed his appointment. Further delay in appointing a Special Envoy for North Korea would make questionable the Biden administration's seriousness about its North Korea policy. On the other hand, Sung Kim is still serving concurrently as US ambassador to Indonesia. This fact suggests the low priority given to North Korea policy in the Biden administration's diplomacy, even though the administration's political appointments are delayed as a whole due to the opposition of the Republican Congress.
It was apparent that at the US-ROK summit in May President Moon Jae-in desired to raise the topic of a future dialogue with North Korea. But the Biden administration gave preference to an agreement on the other agenda items that it prioritized, giving a low priority to bilateral cooperation regarding North Korea. The Biden administration was indifferent to either President Trump's provocative approach adopted in the first half of his tenure ("rocket man" and "fire and fury") or the conciliatory approach in the second half ("I'm in love with Kim Jong-un"). 4
Georgetown University professor Victor Cha offered the following analysis on the US-ROK summit. Cooperation for vaccinations against COVID-19 that was then raging in South Korea was what the South Korean public and President Moon Jae-in anticipated most from the United States. Priority to be given to the North Korea issue was low. The former South Korean ambassador to the United States Ahn Ho-young noted that the meeting was "unique" compared to past US-ROK summits in that the US and ROK leaders spent more time on topics other than North Korea. 5
At the May summit, the Moon administration failed to obtain substantial cooperation from the US government with the North Korea issue or COVID-19 vaccinations. But President Biden expressed his support for the "denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula" and "inter-Korean dialogue led by President Moon" and emphasized his stance that he would not close the window for negotiations with North Korea. As a result, the Moon administration could maintain its raison d'être as a promoter of dialogue with North Korea for the reunification of the two Koreas and publicize the "great success of the summit."
The Biden administration succeeded in including in the US-ROK Leaders' Joint Statement the phrases "the importance of preserving peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait" and "(the allies) acknowledge the importance of open, transparent, and inclusive regional multilateralism including the Quad" --- sensitive wording given that China is distrustful of the Quad, regarding it as part of international efforts to encircle it. The US administration made the South Korean government, which does not want to experience again the economic "harassment" inflicted by China when the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system was deployed in South Korea, accept the troublesome expressions. Furthermore, the joint statement sets forth that cooperation among Japan, the United States, and South Korea is of primary importance in confronting North Korea. This is also the ingenuity of the US side because the Moon administration would not risk overtly shaking hands with Japan under US pressure, given that South Korean public opinion is strongly anti-Japanese. 6
The Biden administration has no intention to engage in any "grand bargaining" with North Korea as the former Trump administration did. From the administration's standpoint, the North Korea issue is a low priority compared to the China issue. Yet, it wants to avoid being criticized for its inaction toward North Korea as the Obama administration was for its "strategic patience." North Korea looks down upon President Moon and shows enmity toward him. Since it has no intention of negotiating with Moon's "lame duck" administration that will step down next year, there is no prospect of progress in the inter-Korean dialogue. The Biden administration could without effort extract the necessary concessions from South Korea by paying only "lip service" to Moon's position on the North Korea issue.
Moreover, at the press conference following the summit talks with Moon, President Biden participated in a ceremony in which he awarded the Medal of Honor to a US veteran who fought the Chinese Volunteer Army in the Korean War, thereby sending the message that the United States and South Korea are the allies who fought with their blood against China and North Korea. It was a forcible message to South Korean politicians both in government and in opposition who aim to succeed President Moon Jae-in. There is no doubt that the Biden administration intended to demonstrate unity with its Korean ally rather than dialogue with North Korea. 7
How Will the Biden Administration Respond to North Korea's Provocations with a Spate of Missile Launches?
North Korea may be well aware that President Biden attaches a low priority to the North Korea issue. In the summer of 2021, the Biden administration was busy addressing a chaotic series of events that accompanied the hasty withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. As if it had waited for the termination of the withdrawal, North Korea launched its "newly developed long-range cruise missiles" (as announced by the North Korean government) on September 11 and 12, which was followed by the launching of two short-range ballistic missiles on September 15, a Hwasong-8 hypersonic missile (as announced by the North Korean government) on September 28, and a submarine-launched missile on October 19. On October 11, North Korea held the Defense Development Exhibition in Pyongyang, displaying its new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and SLBMs unveiled at the military parade last October. The "exhibition without buyers" is understood to aim at attracting outside attention besides boosting national prestige. 8
These North Korean moves aroused interest on the US side. An October 20 Washington Post article points out that the pace of North Korea's recent missile launches has come at a remarkable pace and that North Korea is testing various types of missiles and developing new technology capable of neutralizing efforts to detect the signs of a launch. The article adds that missile defense by the United States and its allies will face great difficulties. It also cites remarks by Shin Beomcheol, director of the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy: "North Korea is concentrating on developing a variety of nuclear weapons and missiles that are difficult to evade." "It is a risk that could be a game-changer for South Korea and Japan." The article argues that North Korea's recent missile tests have focused on tactical nuclear weapons targeting neighboring countries, rather than long-range missiles aimed at the United States, thereby raising concerns among US allies and bringing the United States back to the negotiation table. 9
The same article points out that the Biden administration offered "specific proposals" and renewed calls for the North to return to talks; however, "the administration has not shown any public indication that it is willing to grant the sanctions relief that Kim desires." According to the article, the range of the SLBM fired on October 19 covers South Korea and Japan; since its flight altitude is not very high, it will be difficult for ground-based radars to detect it, making missile defense difficult. 10
From the inauguration of the Biden administration to the present, its North Korea policy has been low on the political agenda. North Korea, having observed the administration's stance, began military provocations targeting US allies, leaving the United States no choice but to take action. This is the understanding of US media on the recent moves of North Korea. Ankit Panda, a senior fellow at the US-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said, "The quick spate of qualitatively new capabilities being tested, I think, should remind us of all the behind-the-scenes research and development work North Korea was able to do in the last few years," adding, "I don't suspect that the overarching and primary purpose of this campaign is to put pressure on the U.S. and South Korea; the primary goal is just to improve their capabilities." North Korea is not merely provoking the United States to bring it to the negotiation table but is also steadily improving its nuclear missile capabilities. This is an "inconvenient truth" for the Biden administration that has not prioritized its North Korea policy.
In June 2021, the Biden administration sent the US Special Representative for North Korea Policy Sung Kim to South Korea for consultations with his South Korean counterpart and Takehiro Funakoshi, head of the Japanese Foreign Ministry's Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau, to re-strengthen cooperation between the three countries. However, the current mood surrounding Japan-Korea relations remained unchanged due to negative public sentiment prevailing in both countries. On October 24, Sung Kim visited South Korea again and held closed-door breakfast talks with Noh Kyu-duk, Special Representative for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security Affairs of the Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs. At a press conference afterwards, Sung said, "I look forward to continuing to work with special representative Noh to explore different ideas and initiatives, including the ROK's end-of-war proposal… We hope the DPRK will respond positively to our outreach." This message failed to include any compelling message that would move North Korea. It appears that the Biden administration has not raised the priority of its North Korea policy as after he visited South Korea, Sung Kim left for Indonesia as US ambassador to the country.
Georgetown University professor Victor Cha contributed an article to the Washington Post on September 15 and predicted that North Korea would highly likely conduct a nuclear test as its missile tests continue. He recommends that the Biden administration start a dialogue with North Korea to offer cooperation on COVID-19 vaccinations. North Korea is now closing the border with China due to the COVID-19 outbreak and is facing an economic crisis stemming from massive floods.
Professor Cha warns that the US has only two options. 1) North Korea may conduct a nuclear test or a test launching of a long-range missile that reaches the US mainland. An imminent crisis will bring the two parties to the negotiation table. 2) The United States should take advantage of the current corona crisis in North Korea to take the initiative. North Korea declined an offer to accept a Chinese-made corona vaccine through the World Health Organization's COVAX (COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access) initiative. Kim Jong-un appears to distrust China. Professor Cha considers this situation an opportunity for the United States to extend a helping hand to North Korea. He adds that such a move would strengthen the relationship with the Moon Jae-in administration eager to continue a dialogue with the North. 11 A US administration hesitates to take active action but is eventually forced to the negotiating table due to North Korea's brinkmanship policy using nuclear tests or creating other critical situations. This is a "déjà vu" of US negotiations with North Korea to date. However, North Korea's nukes and missiles have acquired much more offensive capabilities than in the past. It will not be the same game.
It remains to be seen whether the Biden administration will follow Professor Cha's recommendations and move actively or whether it will be obliged to respond passively, facing the resurgence of crises like a North Korean nuclear test. There will be further challenges for Biden's diplomacy.
(Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation)
(Translation by Tsutomu Inuzuka, SSDP Associate)
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- September 2018: Proposal, "The Denuclearization of North Korea and the Restoration of Peace in the Korean Peninsula― Correct Perceptions and Eight Proposals on Japan's North Korea Diplomacy－" edited by the Society of Security and Diplomatic Policy Studies
- September 2018: "The Taiwan Policy of the Xi Jinping Administration in its Second Term: An Outlook on Cross-Strait Relations in the New Era" written by Yasuhiro Matsuda, Professor of the Tokyo University
- July 2018: "The EU States and Russia on North Korea Issues- Expansion of Influence through Diplomacy: Attempts and Limitations -" lectured by Yuichi Hosoya, Professor of Keio University
- "An Assessment of the US-North Korea Summit and an Outlook for the Future of the Korean Peninsula" lectured by Junya Nishino, Professor of Keio University
- "Korean Peninsula Issue and Japan's Future Security Policy" written by Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow of National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- July 2018: "US North Korea policy affected by personnel changes in the Trump administration" lectured by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation.
- "China-North Korea relationship under Xi Jinping" lectured by Shin Kawashima, Professor of the Tokyo University.
- "North Korean Denuclearization and Russia" lectured by Nobuo Shimotomai, Professor of the Hosei University.
- March 2018: "The Network Hegemony Theory for a Security Architecture in The Asia Pacific Region" lectured by Masahiro Akiyama, Chairman, the Society of Security and Diplomatic Policy Studies
- January 2018: "A Destabilized Middle East" lectured by Koichiro Tanaka, Professor, Keio University
- December 2017: "Problems in Sino-Japanese Relations, 1992-2042" lectured by Ezra F. Vogel, Professor of the Social Sciences Emeritus at Harvard University
- November 2017: "The Future of the Asia-Pacific Region" written by Yoriko Kawaguchi, Fellow, the Meiji Institute for Global Affairs, Former Minister Foreign Affairs
- October 2017: "A New Trend in India's Foreign Policy and Japan" Written by HIROSE,Takako, Professor, Senshu University
- August 2017: "The Shocks that shook the Transatlantic World and their Implication for Japan's Foreign Policy" written by HOSOYA, Yuichi, Professor, Keio University
- August 2017: "Does Economic Interdependence not Encourage Collaboration? ―Thinking Japan-China Relations from an Economic Perspective―" written by Takashi SEKIYAMA, Ph.D., Toyo University
- July 2017: Proposal article "The Trump Administration's Impact on the Cross-Strait Relations" written by Yasuhiro Matsuda, Ph.D.
- June 2017: Proposal article "The outlook for the relationship between two great powers and implications for Japanese diplomacy" written by Professor Shin Kawashima
- May 2017: (Emergency Proposal) Facing the Inconvenient Truth: Re-examining Policy for Peace and Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula (Chief author, Masao Okonogi)
- March 2017: "Economic Influences of the Trump Administration" written by Professor Motoshige Ito
- February, 2017: Proposal article "Trump's Foreign and Security Policy - Unpredictable President, Realistic Secretaries - " written by Mr. Tsuneo Watanabe is posted on the website of SSDP.
- December, 2016: Proposal article "Reconsidering North Korea Policy: How to Deal with a Nuclear Armed Divided States" written by Professor Masao Okonogi is posted on the website of SSDP.
- Taiwan-Japan Round Table on August 24th, at Capital Tokyu Hotel
- Japan-Korea Political Leaders Dialogue was held on February 10th,2023 at International House of Japan
- March 2022, A remembrance seminar "Remembering Professor Ezra Vogel" held on January 17, 2022
- March 2021, Japan-ROK Parliamentary Dialogue -Japan-ROK Cooperation in the Era of US-China Competition- held on March 11, 2021
- December 2020: The report of the Japan-ROK Future Dialogue held on November 21 to discuss "Japan-ROK Cooperation in the Post-Covid-19 Era
- October 2020: "Responses to COVID-19 and Agendas for the Post-COVID-19 Era", A Brief Overview of the Japan-Korea Experts Dialogue held on July 29,30, 2020
- October 2020: "The China-Taiwan Confrontation over Corona Response and Taiwan's Security" written by Makoto Ogata, Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
- May 2020: "Rivalries in the Middle East in New Security Dynamics", Written by Sayed Ghoneim, Major General (retired) of the Egyptian Armed Forces, Chairman, Institute for Global Security & Defence Affairs
- March 2020: The Japan-South Korea Relationship in a Cul-de-Sac--- Where is an Exit ? Masao Okonogi Professor Emeritus, Keio Universit
- December 2019: The Hong Kong Upheaval and the Future of Cross-Straits Relations－The 2019 Japan-Taiwan Strategic Dialogue Report OGATA, Makoto Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
- August 2019: Report; 2019 FUTURE CONSENSUS DIALOGUE --Sustainable Prosperity and Future of Korea-U.S.-Japan Cooperation-- By Future Consensus Institute (Yeosijae)
- June 2019: Report on India – Japan Security Dialogue 2019 by Ms. Vindu Mai Chotani, Ph.D Student, The University of Tokyo
June 2019: Four papers on Japan-India Cooperation submitted to India-Japan Security Dialogue 2019
Japan's Rationale for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision
Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, The Sasakawa Peace Foundation
The Significance and Possibilities of India-Japan Cooperation in the Concept of the Indo-Pacific
Toru ITO Associate Professor, National Defense Academy of Japan
Japan-India Defense Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific Context - Operationalizing the Security Aspect of the Indo-Pacific Vision –
Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)
India-US-Japan Defense Cooperation: What's next?
Dr. Satoru Nagao, Hudson Institute
- Japan's Rationale for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision
- November 2018: "The Present State of the Japanese Economy and Policy Issues" lectured by Motoshige Itoh, Professor Emeritus at the University of Tokyo.
- November 2018: "Expanding Social Security Expenses and Fiscal Reforms" lectured by Kazumasa Oguro, Professor at Hosei University.
- September 2018: "Taiwan Identity and Cross-Strait Relations and Trump's Taiwan Policy and the Future of Taiwan-US Relations-Discussion at The Second Japan-Taiwan Strategic Dialogue (June 21, 2018, Taipei)-" written by OGATA, Makoto
- September 2018: "Japan-Taiwan Dialogue 2018 Minutes", 21st June 2018, Taipei, Taiwan.
- July 2018: Report on The Second Japan – Philippines Strategic Dialogue prepared by Ms. Vindu Mai Chotani, Ph.D. Student, Graduate School of Public Policy, Tokyo University.
- May 2018: "Civilian Control "at Crisis"? – Perhaps Not, for the Case of the Field Sit-reps from SDF's South Sudan Mission" reported by Ippeita Nishida, Research Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- January 2018: "Fukushima, Genki？Project－Young Taiwanese volunteers introduce the facts on Fukushima's revival through documentary films－" reported by OGATA, Makoto, Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
- December 2017: "Commemorating a Quarter Century of Dispatches of the JSDF's PKO Units: Challenges and Possibilities in the Post South Sudan" written by Takayuki Shoji, Lecturer, Nihon University
- November 2017: "19th CCP National Congress" written by Mr. Bonji Ohara, Senior Research Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Fondation
- October 2017: "What is Japan's Role in the Indo-China border conflict?" written by Dr. NGAO,Satoru, Research Fellow, Institute for Future Engineering
- July 2017: "Overview of the Current Situation in Taiwan-" the Naturally Independent Generation" will affect the Taiwan"s politics-" written by Makoto Ogata MGE.(Ret.)
- June 2017: "Japan-U.S. Economic Dialogue" written by Mr.Takaaki Asano
- March 2017: "The Japan-Philippines Strategic Dialogue" written by Mr. Hideshi Tokuchi
- February, 2017: Current topic "The Importance of Japan's Security Role Under Trump" written by Dr. Satoru Nagao is posted on the SSDP website.
- December, 2016: Current topic "Widening Security Task: Will SDF do the Job?" written by Mr. Ippeita Nishida is posted on the SSDP website.
- June 2023,Research journal "Security Studies vol5 no2" (Nuclear Crisis Scenarios Facing Japan and the Outlook of Nuclear Deterrence and Arms Control and Disarmament) in English edition was published.
- March 2023,Research journal "Security Studies vol5 no1" (What Will Happen to European Security?―Facing the War in Ukraine) in English edition was published.
- January 2023, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 4)" - Defending Our Country – Defense Policy in a "New Cold War Era - was published.
- October 2022, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 3)" - Xi Jinping's China - Politics, Economy, Society and Diplomacy - was published.
- Jun 2022, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 2)" -The Russia-Ukraine War and Its Global Impact- was published.
- March 2022, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 1)"-What is Economic Security?- was published.
- December 2021, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 3 no 4)"-Korean Peninsula Situation- was published.
- September 2021, A research journal "Security Studies vol03 no03" -Asia's Security II- (English edition)
- June 2021, A research journal "Security Studies vol03 no02" -Asia's Security I- (English edition)
- March 2021: Research journal "Security Studies (vol3 no1) "- US Foreign Policy in the Biden Administration / The 2020 US Presidential Election and American Democracy -(English edition)
- December 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no4) "- Normalize Japan-South Korea Relations trough Dialogues -(English edition)
- September 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no3) "-The Novel Coronavirus and Security-(English edition)
- July 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no2) - Middle East Situation and Japan's Security - " (English edition) was published
- May 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no1) - Cyber, Space, Environment and Security - " March 2020 (English edition)
- February 2020, "A research journal "Security Studies (vol1 no4) " (English edition)"
- September 2019: A research journal "Security Studies (vol1 no3) " (English edition)
- August 2019: Korea-Japan Joint Seminar: FUTURE CONSENSUS DIALOGUE
- April 2019: "Security Studies (vol1 no2) April 2019"
- March 2019: A research journal "Security Studies vol1 no01" just published
- February 2019: The Denuclearization of North Korea and the Takeshima Issue
- December 2018: Former Vice Defense Minister Masahiro Akiyama's Memoirs (An Ad)
- November 2018: Participation in the Future Consensus Forum held in Beijing
- September 2018: "2018 Indo-Pacific Security Dialogue" reported by Masahiro Akiyama
- 2017 December: "The Butterfly Project-A possibility of showing a solution to the North Korea problem-"
- October 2017: Campaign on the problems with North Korea
- August 2017: A New Containment Policy Strategy
- June 2017: Korean peninsla
- March 2017: President Duterte
- February, 2017: Kazakhstan
- November, 2016: Participated in Astana Club 2016 held in Kazakhstan on November 14- 16, 2016.