proposal

The "FEAR" Returned― The Meaning of Trump's Reinstatement

Koji Murata

Introduction―Two Americas

Joseph Hardy Neesima, the founder of Doshisha University, was born to a low-ranking samurai family in a small feudal domain in Japan at the end of the Edo period. Afterward, he happened to obtain a book written by an American missionary in classic Chinese, entitled "A Concise History of the United States of America," outlining American history, geography, and politics. Neesima perused it and learned with surprise that the president of the United States is elected by the citizens. The young man who led a life under the yoke of feudalism expressed his astonishment with the phrase, "I was so surprised as to feel my brain dissolved." Eventually, he decided to study Western civilization and Christianity and went to America, breaking the national ban. When the ship carrying him aboard arrived at the port of Boston in 1865, a tragic piece of news awaited him, informing the assassination of President Abraham Lincoln. An America where the people choose the president and an America where the people assassinate the president they choose―the two- or multi-facetedness of America has surprised Japanese people since the outset of Japan-US relations.

This time, too, America surprised us. That man returns with his favorite gesture, raising both thumbs upward. Although the media outlets reported, more than once, that the November 2024 US presidential election would be a close contest, it ended with the blowout victory of the Republican candidate Donald Trump. From "If Trump" to "Almost Trump" to "Again Trump." It is the first time since Grover Cleveland in the late 19th century that a president will serve two terms with an interval. In addition to a Republican president, Republicans won a majority in both houses of Congress―the so-called triple red. Moreover, conservatives also dominate the Supreme Court. Journalist Bob Woodward once called Trump a "FEAR." He says Trump is now planning radical policy changes and even political revenge. Is Trump's return to power the arrival of his self-praised "golden age," or is it a descent into a "dark age" as claimed by Vice President Kamala Harris, who lost in the presidential election?

This essay will discuss the background to Trump's return to power from the long-, medium-, and short-term perspectives and then consider the future of the second Trump administration from both an optimistic and a pessimistic perspective.

Backgrounds to Trump's Comeback

There is a long-term historical background to Trump's emergence. So-called populist politicians, characterized as exhibitionist, inflammatory, and aggressive, have appeared repeatedly in American history. According to international political scientist Joseph Nye, "Populism is not new, and it is as American as pumpkin pie."

If limited to the 20th century, when America became a world power, we can name instantaneously such populist politicians, such as Huey Long (Governor of Louisiana) in the 1930s, Senator Joseph McCarthy, who instigated an anti-communist witch hunt campaign in the 1950s, George Wallace (Governor of Alabama), who supported racial segregation in the 1960s, Ross Perot (Texas billionaire), who ran for president twice in the 1990s, and isolationist Pat Buchanan.

Journalist Kurt Andersen makes the point that America is a "Fantasyland" or a crucible of extreme individualism, religious fanaticism, and show business. Trump is a "genuine Fantasylander or the embodiment of Fantasyland."

In 1964, political scientist Richard Hofstadter published a noted essay, "The Paranoid Style of American Politics." Conspiracy theories have repeatedly claimed that "conspiracies" are being hatched from within and without American society to corrode "us." This lineage has continued unbroken, from the witch hunts in the early colonial period to the "Red Scare" and the recent QAnon. For populists, this trend constitutes a rich vein of precious ore.

However, unlike previous populists and conspiracy theorists, Donald Trump was elected president in 2016 and re-elected in 2024.

Next, let us examine the medium-term background of Trump's comeback. First, we should note the impact of identity politics. In 1940, 90% of the American population were whites (excluding Latinos). In 1960, the proportion was almost the same. In 1980, the proportion dropped to 80% and continued to decline to 70% in 2000 and 60% in 2020, expected to fall below 50% by the middle of the 21st century. Since the turn of the 21st century, the Republican and Democratic presidential and vice-presidential candidates have never all been WASPs (White Anglo-Saxon Protestants). Along with this change, minorities became increasingly vocal in terms of race, religion, and even gender and sexuality, which made the former mainstreamers feel threatened. The conflux of this trend and moral value issues such as abortion, gun control, and same-sex marriage intensified conflict at home associated with social and cultural attributes.

Second, status politics is another factor. The disparity between the wealthy and poor widened in American society in the 1980s. After witnessing globalization and entering the 21st century, the leftists launched the "Occupy Wall Street" movement and demanded a correction of the 99% vs. 1% disparity. Today, the top 10% and 1% wealthy income earners account for 50% and 20%, respectively, of total income, while the subsequent 50% people only account for 10% of total income. The fall of the lower middle class is particularly noticeable; growing anxiety is shared among them that they cannot maintain their current social and economic status. They are the "forgotten people," as noted by Trump.

Thirdly, information became more niche. In 1987, the "Fairness Doctrine" that guaranteed the fairness of broadcasting was abolished, and, coupled with the spread of cable and satellite broadcasting, there was an increase in highly partisan news programs catering to viewers. Since then, the Internet has become widespread, and social media has expanded. People have only to take in information that suits them; they could have a "Daily Me," through which they would be connected with others only by narrow values.

Internationally, the chaos of the Iraq War eroded the authority of the elites who emphasized US involvement in global affairs, and a backlash against rapid globalization, coupled with war-weariness, gave rise to isolationism, "America First." Furthermore, with the rise of China as background, the idea of ​​America's decline resurged. In 2013, President Barack Obama went so far as to state that "America is no longer the world's policeman." Isolationism represents a form of international identity politics, while the notion of America's decline reflects aspects of international status politics.

These factors came together to pave the way for electing President Trump in 2016. However, due to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, the four years of the Trump administration were fraught with turmoil at home and abroad. Then, why has Trump, who once stepped down, made a comeback through the recent presidential election? Let us consider more short-term factors.

The issues that candidate Trump focused on were those specific for ordinary people to understand, such as rising prices and the problem of illegal immigrants of more than 10 million. In addition, he played the role of a strong leader, making pledges of which feasibility is questionable, such as "I will settle the war in Ukraine in one day" and "I will enforce the deportation of one million illegal immigrants every year." The sudden reflex he showed at the time of the assassination attempt also suggested his strong will to resist criticism of his old age.

In contrast, Harris highlighted her image as an Asian-black female candidate younger in age. Apart from the abortion issue, she made many abstract arguments, such as the protection of democracy and human rights, and failed to distinguish herself from President Biden. During the latter half of the election campaign, she strengthened her appeal to the middle class, but her elite attributes were apparent. Thus, the contrast between the two candidates was represented by "real opinion" versus "pretense," as well as "strength" versus "weakness." Moreover, the Democratic Party took the support of immigrants and blacks for granted and did not develop an effective election strategy to capture their votes. Trump won by narrow margins in the battleground states, including Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

Elderly, divorced, and allegedly a dangerous hawk as he was―Trump, escaping assassination, scored reelection; thus, he became a second Reagan. He took after Reagan's catchphrases―"Make America Great Again" and "Is your life better than it was four years ago?" On the other hand, the incumbent president withdrew from the election; the vice president succeeded him but lost―Biden and Harris played a second Lyndon Johnson and a second Hubert Humphrey. In a sense, Biden also played an analogous role to Gerald Ford, who tried but failed to unite the country following a lost war abroad and the impeachment scandal of his predecessor―for Ford, the defeat in Vietnam and Richard Nixon's resignation; for Biden, the withdrawal from Afghanistan and Trump's impeachment drama. Ford became unpopular as he pardoned Nixon; Biden followed the rut of the previous cart by giving a presidential pardon to his second son.

In three presidential elections, Trump won a white and a black woman but lost to a white man of his generation. Although it may be an oversimplified argument, Trump may serve as a magnifying glass that skillfully exploits the prejudices of the social class he represents. Moreover, this time, the Republicans won both houses of Congress, albeit by a narrow margin. In a world with "Trump again,'' could nobody stop him? Absolutely we could.

Optimism or Pessimism?

In the recent presidential election, Trump won not only in the electoral college votes but also in the popular votes, avoiding becoming a minority president. Some may say he is all the more dangerous, but his democratic legitimacy is high. In addition, the feared riots did not occur; the transition of power is proceeding peacefully. Furthermore, Trump's victory in the presidential election under the Biden administration is the best evidence against the vulgar discourses that the 2020 election was stolen. Since the incumbent president in power (Biden) could not steal the election this time, it would have been impossible at all for the Democratic candidate Biden to steal the election under the Trump administration four years ago. The American democratic system is functioning.

Some say that Trump's rampage would be unstoppable because of the triple red, but the Republican majority in the House and the Senate is only a narrow margin. American lawmakers are not subject to party discipline. Their priorities are the interests of their constituencies and reelection; they do not always follow Trump. Midterm elections are scheduled for 2026, two years from now, which falls on the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States. There is a possibility that the Republican Party may lose its majority in either the House or the Senate―probably the former. In that case, President Trump would quickly become a lame duck as another term is unavailable for him.

The Supreme Court has two conservative justices in their 70s (Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito). If they choose the wrong time to retire, the conservative advantage in the judiciary could be reversed. Meanwhile, there are concerns about the health conditions of liberal Justice Sonia Sotomayor; if she retires during Trump's presidency, the conservative advantage will become more robust.

Regarding environmental and immigration issues, state and local governments may strongly oppose Trump's policies. The city of Los Angeles has already passed a law to not cooperate in the forcible deportation of illegal immigrants.

The Republican Party, which has, through the recent election, won some support among black people and immigrants, may find it harder to maintain its unity than before. Meanwhile, how much will the Democratic Party learn from the recent defeat to regain its posture in the next four years?

Trump will be 82 years old during the 2028 presidential election. If the next president is in his 50s, this means a shift in presidential age by around 30. The most significant age shift between two presidents in history was from Dwight Eisenhower to John Kennedy with a shift of 27; perhaps a wider shift in presidential age will likely occur in 2028.

Obama said, "America is not the world's policeman." In this context, once Franklin Roosevelt advocated the "Four Policemen," a postwar council with the Big Four proposed as a guarantor of world peace; he did not intend the United States to serve as a policeman single-handedly. The post-Cold War era is over with the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukrainian war. In a world with "Trump again," if allied countries develop various forms of cooperation and agree to further sharing responsibilities, the United States will likely undertake the role of a "firefighter" (Robert Scalapino), focusing on preventive diplomacy, crisis management, and conflict resolution. Although "America First" may be inevitable, many ways are conceivable to avoid "America Only."

Today, many challenges concern the international community: Will the Ukraine war and the conflict in the Middle East subside or expand? Will the anti-American "New Gang of Four" (Richard Haass) of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea align more with each other over these two issues? Will irreparable delays not be incurred during the four years of the second Trump administration in areas where global cooperation is essential, such as global warming and artificial intelligence (AI)? The presence in the government of Elon Musk, a cult of deregulation and the omnipotence of science and technology, is also ominous. There is the likelihood Trump will become uncontrollable, the Democratic Party will disintegrate of its own accord, and allied countries will plunge into chaos.

However, we must avoid making self-fulfilling prophecies. Even if we cannot help being pessimistic in the short term, we need to hold an optimistic attitude in the long term. Winston Churchill, born from a British father and an American mother, described the US-UK relationship as a "special relationship," saying, "You can always count on Americans to do the right thing―after they've tried everything else." At the end of his noted book International Politics, Masataka Kosaka mentions Chekhov's short story "A Case Study." The protagonist is a doctor. He is asked to call on a young patient tormented with insomnia. However, he can do nothing to help her but listen to her uneasiness and console her. "We cannot help but be skeptical, but we must not despair. That is the duty of doctors, diplomats, and human beings," Kosaka concludes.

At present, we should acquire a broad perspective that will enable us to consider the future from a historical viewpoint without becoming too excited or upset about a world with "Trump again."

(Professor, Doshisha University)

References

  • Yuzo Ota, "Joseph Hardy Neesima: A Man of Conscience," Minerva Shobo, 2005.
  • Masataka Kosaka, "International Politics: Fear and Hope," Chuokoron Shinsho, 1966.
  • Koji Murata, "Trump vs. Biden: Gap between the "Cold Civil War" and the "20 Years of Crisis," PHP Shinsho, 2021.
  • Koji Murata, "50 Years of US Presidency: From Ford to Biden," Shincho Sensho, 2024.
  • Bob Woodward, "FEAR: Trump in the White House," a Japanese translation by Iwan Fushimi, Nikkei Publishing, 2018.
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