proposal

American Democracy and Society Viewed from an Analysis of the 2024 US Presidential Election

Takayuki Nishiyama

Concerns about American Democracy

Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt, authors of the international bestseller How Democracies Die, have written Tyranny of the Minority to raise questions about American democracy. The authors argue that the US Constitution and laws adopt an "anti-majoritarian" system to prevent the "tyranny of the majority" and that minority extremists in the Republican Party are using it. The Republican Party allegedly exercises excessive influence without democratic legitimacy.1

The recognition that the Republican Party, especially Trump supporters, is jeopardizing American democracy is relatively widely shared in Japan. This is not surprising, given that Donald Trump tried to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election, instigated a mob to attack the Capitol building when the election results had yet to be certified, and said he would not necessarily accept the results of the 2024 presidential election.

However, a look at the results of US opinion polls reveals a different reality. For example, a poll survey conducted chiefly by The Washington Post from September 30 to October 15, 2024, in seven swing states reveals the assessment by respondents that Trump is more able to deal with threats to democracy than Kamala Harris (43% vs. 40%).2。

According to the exit polls conducted by CNN during the election campaign, those who answered that American democracy is "somewhat threatened" (35%) and those who replied that it was "very threatened" (38%) account for about three-quarters of respondents, indicating that many voters are worried about American democracy. What is intriguing is that votes of those who answered the above were split almost evenly between Harris and Trump. Those who replied that democracy is "somewhat threatened" voted for Harris at 49% and Trump at 50%, while those who answered that it is "very threatened" voted for Harris at 47% and Trump at 51%. Respondents who expressed concerns about American democracy voted more for Trump than Harris.3

The above suggests that Republican and Democrat supporters may hold different understandings of the word "democracy." This article is intended to discuss American democracy viewed from an analysis of the 2024 US presidential election.

Public Religion Research Institute's Values ​​Survey

First, let us examine the results of a values ​​survey conducted by the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) from August 16 to September 4, 2024, to explore the American people's view of democracy.4。

Looking at the issues that American citizens emphasize, Republican supporters give top priority to immigrants (71%), followed by rising housing and living costs (69%), crime (57%), and the current state of American democracy (51%). Meanwhile, Democrat supporters accord top priority to the current state of American democracy (61%), which ranks higher than rising housing and living costs (57%) and abortion (57%).

In recent years, the crisis of democracy in American society was discussed following the attack on the Capitol building on January 6, 2021, by Trump supporters who refused to accept the results of the 2020 presidential election. Regarding the 2024 presidential election, many experts have pointed out the possibility of post-election disturbances, and there has been a recognition that people who refuse to accept the election results could resort to political violence.

According to the PRRI survey, as many as 29% of Republicans agree that "because things have gotten so far off track, true American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country"―18% of all Americans, 8% of Democrats, and 16% of independents agree with this opinion, which is also approved to by 33% of Christian nationalists.

Another question asked whether Trump or Harris should not accept the election results if they lose but take all possible means. While 13% of all respondents think Trump should take all possible steps, this view is shared by 19% of Republicans, 21% of those with a favorable view of Trump, 22% of Christian nationalists, 26% of those who think the 2020 presidential election was stolen, and 30% of those who believe convicts in the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol building are taken as hostages. On the other hand, those who think Harris should take all possible measures were 9% of all respondents, 12% of Democrat supporters, and 11% of those who favor Harris. These percentages are lower than those of respondents in favor of Trump but linger at around 10%.

There is a saying that "Democracy is that system in which heads are counted, but not smashed." However, the above survey results suggest that an unexpectedly large number of people accept political violence to oppose the election results. As for Republican supporters, 62% believe that the 2020 presidential election was stolen, and 46% believe that those convicted in the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol are true patriots. Democrat supporters perceive the incident as an act of denial of democracy, in which Trump supporters attempted to upend the legitimate election results using violence. However, for Republican supporters, the genuine election results were stolen, and they believe it necessary to take action to make Trump, the legitimate winner, US president to protect democracy.

Trump has reiterated that he will take "revenge" after the presidential election and that he will be a "dictator" on his first day in office. In this connection, another question was asked whether there is a risk that Trump or Harris will use the presidency to become dictators. Regarding Trump, "[t]he American public is evenly divided about whether there is a real danger that Trump will use the presidency to become a dictator (49% agree vs. 48% disagree). Only 11% of Republicans agree with the statement, and 89% disagree. Among Democrats, 88% agree with the statement… and 12% disagree." Regarding Harris, "[n]early seven in ten Americans disagree that there is a real danger that Harris will use the presidency to become a dictator if elected (69%). About three in ten agree (28%)… A majority of Republicans (56%) agree that Harris intends to become a dictator, while 43% disagree… Democrats (95%) are nearly unanimous in their disagreement that there is a danger of Harris becoming a dictator if she wins the election." Both Trump and Harris are perceived as potential dictators after becoming president, despite partisan differences in perception.

Populism and the Trump Phenomenon

The 2024 US presidential election was fought over how to evaluate Trump's politics. When considering democratic politics in the United States, how to evaluate Trump's politics is a major issue.

There is a global debate about whether populism is opposed to democracy or revitalizes it. Populism is, no doubt, predicated on distrust of the existing power order. Skepticism and criticism of elites and experts are key components of populism. This is why the attack on the Capitol, Trump's vows of "revenge," his opposition to diplomatic elites, and his vaccine skepticism have all attracted public support.

Populism has another aspect that can be viewed positively. In the United States, the careers of those who become president have changed over time. In recent years, there has been a strong trend for outsider candidates to gain support. In the post-WWII period, former senators often won the presidency, but after Richard Nixon, an insider in Washington politics who became president after serving as a member of Congress and vice president, caused the Watergate scandal, expectations increased for outsiders to federal politics as presidential candidates. President after president since Jimmy Carter had little connection with federal politics because they were, among other things, former state governors. This trend reached its culmination with the election of Trump, who had no political or military experience. The election of Joe Biden, an ultimate Washington political insider, was a backlash to this trend perceived to have gone too far.5

The Trump phenomenon has aspects that can be highly evaluated from the perspective of democratic politics. It is noteworthy that Trump has gained support from people who once supported the Democratic Party but have recently felt that their voices have not been taken up by the party. In the 2016 presidential election, Trump won votes from the white working class,6 but in the 2024 presidential election, he expanded his support base to include Latinos and blacks. Such voters may think that Trump will listen to their voices more than Harris, a member of the current administration.7

"Fraudulent Voting" and "Disenfranchisement"

Many thought that confusion might ensue after the 2024 presidential election over the validity of the voting method: it was feared that people who would not accept defeat might question the validity of the voting procedure. Specifically, there were suspicions that illegal immigrants, who were not eligible voters, engaged in fraudulent voting while eligible voters were disenfranchised―principally in conservative southern states.

The background to concerns about fraudulent voting is that the United States is the only developed country that does not have a resident registration system and obliges those who want to vote to complete voter registration. Before an election, volunteers encourage people to fill out voter registration forms, but it is not easy to confirm whether a person who filled the form is the actual person. Since the decision on the registration method rests with the election officials, there is potential for arbitrary practices. As for postal voting, the election officials check whether the signature at the time of voter registration matches with the signature on the envelope. However, it is not easy to enforce strict checking. Ordinarily, voters are not required to verify their identity when they cast their ballots at a polling station.

For these reasons, the Trump campaign repeatedly asserts that there has been fraudulent voting involving illegal immigrants. Some people point out that there is fraud with the electronic voting machines, although the alleged evidence is dubious. Although fraudulent voting can occur in any democratic country and is believed to actually take place, some people are concerned that fraud may be committed at a high frequency, sometimes in an organized manner, exceeding the practical probability.

Evidence has confirmed that voting rights have indeed been denied. There are no provisions in the United States Constitution or federal laws that actively acknowledge voting rights. Amendments to the United States Constitution stipulate that voting rights should not be denied on the grounds of race, sex, etc., but do not provide that voting rights should be granted proactively. Voting rights are determined by each state, raising concerns that some states may use the law to deny a particular portion of voters their rights. For example, some states do not acknowledge voting rights for people with a history of committing felonies. Since the states prescribe criminal laws, there are concerns that some states may use those laws to deny a particular segment of voters, such as blacks, their voting rights.

The United States does not have an official language; therefore, the National Voting Rights Act provides that consideration be given to languages spoken by a certain percentage of people at polling stations. However, there are problems, such as election information not being provided in the languages spoken by minorities; it has been pointed out that elections are administered in a way that is disadvantageous to minorities.

Some states have laws requiring voters to carry a photo ID issued by a public institution to prevent fraudulent voting. These laws allegedly aim to decrease voter turnout among urban residents who do not possess a driver's license. In the United States, universities are often allowed to organize their own police forces; they are generally considered local governments. Some states are attempting to enact laws prohibiting university-issued student ID cards from being accepted as identification for voting.

Furthermore, polling stations are sometimes consolidated or abolished to reduce the cost of installing voting machines. It is pointed out in this connection that state governments often make partisan decisions, effectively denying minorities their voting rights.

As for a question asking respondents which they are more concerned about—fraudulent voting or disenfranchisement, their opinions are nearly evenly split (49% to 47%). Yet, partisan differences are noted in the assessment: 87% of Republican supporters think that fraudulent voting is the bigger problem of the two, while 81% of Democrat supporters think that disenfranchisement matters more. Among independents, 51% think that disenfranchisement is the bigger problem, while 47% think that fraudulent voting matters more.8

Furthermore, 70% of white Christians answer that fraudulent voting is the bigger problem, while 27% say disenfranchisement matters more; 81% of white evangelical Protestants, 67% of white Catholics, and 63% of white mainline/non-evangelical Protestants answer that fraudulent voting is the bigger problem. A majority of Christians of color (58%), including 77% of Black Protestants and 55% of Hispanic Catholics, say that disenfranchisement is the bigger problem, while more than half of Hispanic Protestants (54%) say that fraudulent voting is the bigger problem (43% say that disenfranchisement matters more). 60% of Jewish, 66% of other non-Christian, and 65% of religiously unaffiliated Americans answer that disenfranchisement is the bigger problem.9

Other Possibilities and Some Reservations

In American society, the term democracy carries positive connotations. Yet, it is a multi-faceted concept. Politicians tend to emphasize the aspects that they find favorable. If voters find a politician who represents their interests and concerns, it may be natural for them to judge that that politician is realizing democracy.

Some American citizens may think of socialism or communism as opposing concepts to democracy. Republican supporters share the recognition that Harris is strongly influenced by Democratic "extremists" such as Bernie Sanders, who call themselves "democratic socialists." Republicans may probably perceive this as a threat to democratic politics.

Moreover, many Republican supporters dislike the critical race theory or cancel culture advocated by the left wing of the Democratic Party. The attempt to fundamentally reconsider widely shared values ​​is theoretically worth consideration: from the perspective of people in difficulties, it may be seen as a move to promote the democratization of democracy. However, attempts to denounce Andrew Jackson and others considered to have laid the foundations of democracy as racist and take down their statues may be a denial of American democracy.10

Conclusion

The fact that three-quarters of Americans are concerned about the current state of American democracy and that supporters of each of the two major parties consider the opposing party's presidential candidate to be unfavorable to democracy raises serious problems when considering the future of American politics and society.

The United States, a multi-ethnic and multi-religious nation, is considered to be a contractual nation based on a shared political system and ideas since neither ethnicity nor language constitute the identity of the nation. America's fundamental values, such as freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law, and individualism, have sometimes been called the American creeds. As noted above, in recent years, Americans have become increasingly concerned about democracy, one of the critical components of American society; the political and social divide has deepened over its evaluation.

Broad as the gamut of interpretation could be, as there is public agreement on the significance of the value of democracy, the significance of the United States as a nation that embodies democracy will not be diminished. Nonetheless, due to a strong public commitment to the idea of democracy, mutual distrust would grow among citizens if fundamental differences emerged in interpretations, and, as a result, political and social stability could be immensely undermined. We must remain watchful of what will become of American democracy amid intensifying division and conflict.

(Professor, Seikei University)

proposal
current topics
letter