An Outlook for the Japanese Economy
Takao Komine

This article will provide an outlook for the Japanese economy from the following three perspectives. The first one is how to view major trend changes emerging in the current state of the Japanese economy. Unless there are crucial exogenous changes, the Japanese economy will likely shift in line with past trends in terms of growth, prices, and employment without much difference. However, it should be noted that the conventional trends already indicate signs of upcoming major trend changes over the medium- to long term.
The second perspective is how to view medium-term growth potential. The so-called potential growth rate determines medium-term growth potential. Japan's potential growth rate is lower than that of other developed countries. How to understand the background of the issue and how to address it are crucial challenges.
The third perspective is how to evaluate Japan's international status. In the global GDP ranking, Japan was surpassed by Germany in 2023 to become the fourth-largest economy and by India in 2024 to become the fifth-largest. This change in Japan's international standing has occurred due to several combined causes. It is necessary to scrutinize these causes and consider how to evaluate Japan's declining international standing and respond from an economic policy perspective.
1. The Current State of the Japanese Economy and Three Major Trend Changes
First, let us review the current state of the Japanese economy. The Cabinet Office's monthly economic report (MER) on the current state of the economy states, "The Japanese economy is recovering at a moderate pace, although it remains pausing in part." Since May 2024, the MER has employed the same expression in its economic assessment. In other words, the Japanese economy is fundamentally continuing to "recover at a moderate pace." I agree with this assessment.
The reason for the expression "the economy remains pausing in part" is that nominal wage increases have not kept up with price increases; real wages are sluggish; as a result, the pace of personal consumption is weak. In this situation, the government aims to "create a virtuous cycle between prices and wages." I will return to this point later.
Next, let us take up the 2025-26 outlook for the Japanese economy. The discussion here depends on the "ESP Forecast Survey," conducted monthly by the Japan Center for Economic Research. This survey collects from about 35 eminent economists pieces of forecasts quoting concrete figures, thereby releasing a consensus (mean values). Thus, the consensus offers an average forecast by professional economists. Although we do not go into further details, this consensus forecast is known as a "good forecast" or one less susceptible to prediction errors.1 According to the latest ESP Forecast Survey (February 2025), the consensus forecast for the representative macroeconomic indicators―growth rate, inflation rate, and unemployment rate―is as follows.
The growth rate is projected to be 1.1% for FY2025 and 0.9% for FY2026. Since these figures are close to the recent trend in the growth rate of the Japanese economy, many people would consider them to be a reasonable forecast. The consumer price inflation rate (excluding perishable food) is projected to be 2.2% for FY2025 and 1.7% for FY2026. These are almost within the range of the inflation target (2%) proposed by the government and the Bank of Japan. The rate for FY2026 is projected to fall short of this target, but this will not matter because immediate calls for another monetary easing would be unlikely even if the rate dropped below 2%. The unemployment rate is projected to be 2.4% for FY2025 and FY2026. The figures represent a situation close to full employment-"everyone who wants to work is working." There is little likelihood that the rate will drop further. This is a reasonable outlook because many believe "the labor shortage will still continue."
Thus, the FY2025-2026 outlook, featuring no notable changes from the past, is quite understandable for those familiar with macroeconomic data. However, I believe that even comprehensible economic trends, while they persist, unnoticeably undergo major trend changes, that are the following three.
The first is that the supply-demand gap will continue to be in a state of near equilibrium. The supply-demand gap is an economic indicator that measures the difference between the supply capacity and demand of the entire economy; if it is negative, it indicates a shortage of demand (excess supply); if it is positive, it suggests a shortage of supply (excess demand). Demand is measurable by GDP, but the supply capacity is calculated from the so-called "growth potential." Since the computed results vary depending on estimation methods, the supply-demand gap will therefore vary depending on the estimators. Here, we will use the data on growth potential and the supply-demand gap estimated and released by the Cabinet Office. Figure 1 shows the latest supply-demand gap.
According to this estimation result, the supply-demand gap as of the July-September 2024 sector is -0.4%, almost balanced.2 The potential growth rate, according to the same estimate, is 0.5%. Since the above growth rate of about 1% predicted for FY2025-2026 exceeds the potential growth rate, the supply-demand gap will likely further approach equilibrium, and a slight supply shortage will occur.
Namely, the Japanese economy is transitioning from a demand shortage to a supply capacity shortage. This demonstrates what I mean by a significant trend change.
In times of demand shortage, voices grow louder that the government should boost demand through economic policies. The reason why the government has repeated the quasi-annual routine of deciding economic measures and expanding fiscal spending by formulating supplementary budgets is that it aims to add demand and improve the economy. From a macroeconomic perspective, I think the times of repeating "emergency economic measures" every year are over. Of course, it would be a different story if we were facing an emergency like the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Since there will be enough demand from now on, we should shift our economic policy toward increasing the supply capacity and raising growth potential. I will return to this point later.
Fig. 1: Changes in the Demand-Supply Gap

Source: Cabinet Office website. As of December 18, 2024.
Secondly, as for prices, it is highly significant that the consumer price inflation rate will continuously remain at around 2%. If prices continue to rise, wages and interest rates will also rise. If income increases and the deflator rises, nominal GDP will also increase. Figure 2 compares, in terms of prices, wages, interest rates, and nominal growth rates, the annual average values in FY2010-2020 before the price hikes with those for FY2024-2026. The Figure shows that all of these values, which were below 1% before the price hikes, have shifted to a level of 1-3% since FY2024. As nominal values turn positive, the impact will affect various sectors.
The "exit from deflation" is no longer a policy goal. The government defines the "exit from deflation" as "that prices have escaped from a situation of sustained decline and are unlikely to return to such a situation again."3 In short, the exit from deflation as a policy goal means aiming to "create a situation in which prices will not fall." However, inflation has been above 2% for about three years; the people complain of being bothered by price hikes. In such a situation, a policy of "preventing prices from falling (ensuring price increases)" is quite strange.
Upon further consideration, the government's policy of aiming for a "virtuous cycle between prices and wages" will not make much sense in a post-deflation economy. The phrase "virtuous cycle between prices and wages" may make many people think of a cycle of "price increases" → "wage increases" → "price increases due to increases in wage costs" → "further wage increases." However, in this cycle, prices rise in the same proportion as wage costs rise; therefore, real wages do not rise, and people's livelihoods do not improve. This cycle is meaningful only for situations where the policy goal is to "sustain price increases." Indisputably, if "wage increases exceeding price increases" were to be realized, people's livelihoods would improve; yet, this would not be realized by price transfer but could only by increasing value-added productivity. To this end, we must increase the growth rate of the Japanese economy as a whole.
We also need to adopt a different approach to finances from before. If the Japanese economy overcomes deflation and the rate of price/income increases rises, there will be both positive and negative effects on finances. The positive effect is that tax revenue will increase as nominal income increases, while the negative effect is that government bond costs will increase as interest rates rise. However, there is a difference in the time lag between these positive and negative effects. In short, the effect of income and tax-revenue hikes are tangible without any time lag. Meanwhile, there is a long time lag for the effect of interest rate hikes because most government bond debt carries no interest, and government bond costs will increase as the government bonds are refinanced gradually.
Owing to this difference in time lag, Japan's fiscal management will be relieved for the time being. The FY2025 budget has become the largest one in history, with expenditures increasing by 3 trillion yen. On the other hand, since tax revenues will increase by 8.8 trillion yen, the fiscal situation will improve considerably. Notwithstanding this, if the government lessens its vigilance, increases in government bond costs will have a gradual adverse effect in due course, making fiscal operations difficult. The government is required to cope with demanding fiscal operations.
FY2010-2020 Annual Average | FY2024 | FY2025 (Forecast) | FY2026 (Forecast) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Price Inflation Rate | 0.6% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.7% |
Nominal Wage Increase Rate | 0.1% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.5% |
Long-Term Interest Rate (10-year government bond) | 0.39% | 1.05% | 1.37% | 1.55% |
Nominal GDP Growth Rate | 0.8% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.4% |
Source: Based on the Prime Minister's Office "Consumer Price Survey," the Cabinet Office's "National Economic Accounts," the Japan Center for Economic Research's "ESP Forecast Survey (February 2025)," etc.
Thirdly, the unemployment rate also indicates an important point: If the full-employment situation continues, the labor shortage will worsen. Here, we must consider the likelihood that the Japanese economy will face the "second Lewisian Turning Point" in the near future.
The idea of the Lewisian Turning Point stems from the economic development theory. In a country that enters the path of economic development, the economy initially grows as surplus labor in low-productivity rural areas flows into the highly productive industrial sector in cities. Japan's period of high economic growth is a representative case of this process. However, when the surplus labor is exhausted, this mechanism no longer functions, and the development dependent on low wages is compelled to change its course. This is the Lewisian Turning Point. The first Lewisian Turning Point came to Japan in the 1970s.
Japan is now approaching the second Lewisian Turning Point. I will return to this topic when considering future growth potential.
2. Medium-Term Outlook for the Japanese Economy
Next, let us look at the Japanese economy from a slightly longer time scale. The "ESP Forecast Survey" examines the medium-term economic outlook as well. According to the Survey conducted in December 2024, Japan's average real growth rate is estimated to be 0.8% for FY2026-2030 and 0.6% for FY2031-2035, which are roughly the same as the current growth rate for FY2025-2026, slightly lower, though. The average consumer price inflation rate (excluding perishable food) is projected to be 1.7% for FY2026-2030 and 1.6% for FY2031-2035, which are also the same as FY2025-2026, slightly lower, though. Although the recent Survey failed to examine the unemployment rate, it is apparent that full employment will continue at a 2% level. Many economists predict that an economic growth of 0.5-1%, an inflation of 1.5-2%, and an unemployment rate in the low 2% range will continue over the medium term.
Although many Japanese may say that there are no problems with prices and the unemployment rate, they think the growth rate should increase a little further. The present issue is that Japan's potential growth rate is low on an international scale. According to the Cabinet Office's "Monthly Economic Report's Attachment (December 2024)," the potential growth rates of major developed countries are 2.3% for the United States, 2.1% for Canada, 1.4% for France, 0.8% for Germany, and 0.5% for Japan, the lowest among them.
Why then is Japan's potential growth rate so low? Figure 3 compares the potential growth rates for 1995 and 2024 (the 1st-to-3rd quarter average) by its components. Here, the country's potential growth rate is obtained as the sum of four production factors: total factor productivity, capital, working hours, and the number of workers. "Capital" refers to the amount of capital stock generated by, among other things, corporate capital investment. "Working hours" denotes the total working hours of all employees, while the "number of workers" indicates the total number of employees. The more these increase, the higher the potential growth rate. Total factor productivity is the residual hard to explain by the input of these production factors and is generally considered technological progress.
As this table indicates, Japan's potential growth rate was 1.6% in 1995; it declined by 1.2% to 0.4% in 2024. The bottom row of the table shows which production factors contribute to the decline of the potential growth rate. One may casually think that "Japan's population is decreasing. So, the declining number of workers must be contributing most to this." However, the factors that have a more negative contribution than the number of workers are capital and total factor productivity.
Potential Growth Rate | Total Factor Productivity | Capital | Working Hours | Number of Workers | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1995 | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.5% | 0.3% |
2024 (1-3 quart. average | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | -0.4% | 0.1% |
Change | -1.2% | -0.4% | -0.8% | +0.1% | -0.2% |
Source: Cabinet Office website
This is understood as a result of insufficient capital investment by companies and a low contribution of technological progress dependent on capital investment. In recent years, Japanese companies have been storing much of their profits as cash deposits; they are reluctant to expand capital investment for future business development. Looking at the ratios of cash deposits held by companies to nominal GDP (2023), 60.2% for Japan, which is significantly higher than 17.1% for the United States, 20.3% for Germany, 28.5% for the United Kingdom, and 32.8% for France.4 It is not easy to increase private companies' capital investment by policy measures; the only way to improve the investment environment for businesses will be through addressing concerns about the fiscal deficit, ensuring the sustainability of the social security system, and creating a conducive environment for start-up companies.
The number of workers, which has been a minor negative contributor so far, is likely to become a significant growth constraint. As mentioned above, Japan is about to reach the second Lewisian Turning Point. The demographic shift is related to this. Let us compare the demographic situation between 2013 and 2023. During this period, the total Japanese population decreased by 3.06 million, and the working-age population (15-64 old)―the source of the labor force―decreased by 5.06 million. Meanwhile, the number of employed people increased by 4.21 million, mainly due to the increase of elderly workers and non-regular female employees. The number of non-regular female employees increased by 1.43 million, while that of elderly non-regular male employees increased by 940,000. Yet, this will not continue for long. Eventually, the available reserves of non-working women and elderly people will run out. Figure 4 shows a medium-term labor force outlook according to the medium-term forecast by the Japan Center for Economic Research. This outlook illustrates that the labor force will peak in 2025-26 and then begin to decline. This peak is nothing other than the second Lewisian Turning Point.
After crossing the second Lewisian Turning Point, the Japanese economy would have to undergo structural reforms on various fronts. The times in which companies choose employees will end, and people will choose companies. As the labor force will become scarcer, wages will naturally rise. Companies could not survive unless they maintain value-added productivity commensurate with higher wages they pay.
Fig. 4: A Medium-Term Labor Force Outlook

Source: Japan Center for Economic Research, "51st Medium-Term Economic Forecast (FY2024-2035)" (December 2024)
There is no magic formula for raising the potential growth rate. All we can do is deal with such challenges from a long-term perspective such as advancing technological development, raising total factor productivity by promoting R&D efforts, improving the environment for capital investment, increasing labor mobility, cultivating human resources, and eliminating mismatches.
3. What Should We Think About the Changing International Status of the Japanese Economy?
Lastly, let us think about the changing international status of the Japanese economy. In 2023, Germany's GDP surpassed Japan's. According to the IMF's forecast, India's GDP will overtake Japan's in 2024. For more than 40 years since the late 1960s, Japan's GDP has been the second world largest after the United States, but in 2010, it was surpassed by China and fell to the third place. It has now dropped to the fourth then to the fifth place (See Figure 5).
First, let us consider the background of the reversal of the GDP ranking of Japan and Germany. The primary factor was the depreciation of the yen. Japan's nominal GDP increased by 7.5% from 550.5 trillion yen in 2012 to 591.9 trillion yen in 2023. However, the same nominal GDP values in the US dollar term decreased by 39% from 6.9 trillion dollars in 2012 to 4.2 trillion dollars in 2023 because the yen's rate to the dollar fell by 43% from 79.8 yen to 140.5 yen during this period. Without this phenomenal fall in the yen rate, the reversal of the GDP ranking of Japan and Germany would not have taken place.
The sluggish Japanese economy also played a role in the reversal. Comparing the GDP growth rates of Japan and Germany between 2000 and 2023, the real GDP growth rate is 0.7% for Japan and 1.1% for Germany; the nominal growth rate in each country's domestic currency is 0.5% for Japan and 2.9% for Germany. Germany's nominal GDP almost doubled, while Japan's increased only by 13%. This difference in the two countries' long-term growth rates contributed to the reversal of their GDP ranking.
Fig. 5

Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database (April 2024)
Next, let us consider a GDP comparison between Japan and India. The comparison is related to the difference in the two counties' population sizes. GDP size is the product of "population" and "GDP per capita." Consequently, it is a truism that the GDP size of China exceeds that of Japan. As of 2023, China's population is 1.43 billion, more than 10 times that of Japan (120 million). This means that if China's GDP per capita increases by just one-tenth of Japan's, its economy will be larger than Japan's. The same is true for India. Since India's population as of 2023 is 1.43 billion, it is no wonder that its economy will eventually surpass Japan's.
From the above, it is apparent that Japan's declining international status in terms of GDP size can be accounted for by the combined effects of short-term exchange rate factors, medium-term growth factors, and long-term population factors. The question is how to evaluate the implications of Japan's declining international status. Of these three factors, the population factors are beyond our control; the exchange rate factors fluctuate widely in the short term and are hard to handle by policy measures. Then, manageable are growth factors alone; consequently, the policy challenge before us is to raise the growth rate as high as possible.
Raising the long-term growth rate as high as possible and sustainably means nothing other than increasing the potential growth rate. This is the most basic of the basic economic policies to improve the well-being of the entire nation. I feel ill at ease with the idea that Japan's declining international status matters most, suggesting that we should strive for higher economic growth to maintain this status. My view is: "It is a self-evident goal for the government to aim for high economic growth as an economic policy for the people; how Japan's international status will change is a consequence of strenuous efforts."
(Visiting Professor, Taisho University)
(Translation by Tsutomu Inuzuka)
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- March 2022, "On Economic Security" written by Matake Kamiya, Professor, the Ntional Defense Academy
- March 2022, ""Economic Security" and the Review of the 2013 NSS and the Related Strategy Documents" written by Nobushige Takamizawa, Visiting Professor, the University of Tokyo
- March 2022, "The US-China Rivalry and Economic Security" written by Yuzo Murayama, Professor, Doshisya University
- March 2022, "Japan's National Security Policies and Science and Technology" written by Nobukatsu Kanehara, Professor, Doshisya University
- March 2022, "Economic Security in the Free Trade Regime" written by Kazuto Suzuki, Professor, the University of Tokyo
- January 2022, "The 2022 South Korean Presidential Election and the Next Administration's Foreign and Security Policy" written by Junya Nishino, Professor, Keio University
- January 2022, "North Korea's Nuclear and Missile Development and Japan's Defense" written by Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, GRIPS
- January 2022, "What will Become of Japan-South Korea Relations? The 1965 Japan-South Korea Treaty System in Jeopardy" written by Masao Okonogi, Professor Emeritus, Keio University
- December 2021, "Economic and Social Conditions in North Korea and its Relations with South Korea" written by Mitsuhiro Mimura, Chief Research Fellow, The Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia.
- December 2021, "China's Korean Peninsula Policy and North Korea" written by Shin Kawashima, Professor, the University of Tokyo.
- December 2021, "China's Korean Peninsula Policy and North Korea" written by Shunji Hiraiwa, Professor, Nanzan University.
- December 2021, "What to Do with the Relations with North Korea?" written by Hitoshi Tanaka, Chairman for Institute for International Strategy at the Japan Research Institute.
- October 2021, "Strategic Implications of North Korea's Enhanced Nuclear and Missile Capabilities" written by Narushige Michishita, Vice President, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
- October 2021, "The Biden Administration's North Korea Policy: Its Low Priority and Looming Crises" written by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation.
- October 2021, "The Evolution of the US-ROK Alliance: Tasks in the Biden Era" written by Yasuyo Sakata, Professor, Kanda University of International Studies.
- September 2021, "The Development of Regional Security Architecture: From Asia-Pacific to Indo-Pacific" written by Ken Jimbo, Professor, Keio University.
- September 2021, "The Strategic Development of Japanese Security Cooperation under Superpower Competition and the Development of the FOIP and its Operationalization" written by Nobushige Takamizawa, Visiting Professor, Graduate School of Public Policy, The University of Tokyo.
- August 2021, "Security Perceptions of Central Asian Countries--- From the Perspective of China Studies ---" written by Shin Kawashima, Professor, the University of Tokyo.
- August 2021, "Security in the Indian Ocean Region---Implication of the Galwan Incident for QUAD in the Indo-Pacific" written by Dr. Satoru Nagao, Fellow (Non-Resident), Hudson Institute.
- August 2021, "Easternization and Security in Asia" written by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation.
- July 2021, "The Ideas of "Autonomy" and "Self-Reliance" in Contemporary India's Foreign Strategy" written by Kazutoshi TAMARI, Associate Professor,Chukyo University.
- July 2021, "Thailand's Security Policies and Threat Perceptions" written by Saya Kiba, Associate Professor, Komatsu University, Faculty of Intercultural Communication.
- July 2021, "Myanmar's Security Perceptions and the February 1 Coup d'Etat" written by Yoshihiro Nakanishi, Associate Professor, Kyoto University.
- July 2021, "Australia's Security Perceptions and the "Asia Threat"" written byTomohiko Satake, Senior Fellow, Defense Policy Division, Policy Studies Department, NIDS .
- June 2021, "The Indo-Pacific Regional Architecture: Its Future--- Multipolar Order Beyond US-China Relations ---" by Tsutomu Kikuchi, Professor, Aoyama Gakuin University
- June 2021, "The Quad Plus in the Security of Asia: Its Significance and Outlook" by Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- June 2021, "Indonesian Views and Perceptions on National Security" by Nobuhiro Aizawa, Associate Professor, The Graduate School of Social and Cultural Studies, Kyushu University
- June 2021, "Normalized Tensions in the Cross-Strait Relations--- Structural Changes in Taiwanese Society and the Xi Jinping Administration's Strategic Shift ---" by Yasuhiro Matsuda, Professor, The University of Tokyo
- June 2021, "China's Maritime Strategy and Responses of the United States and Japan" by Yoji Koda, Former Commander in Chief, Self Defense Fleet
- June 2021, "The South China Issues from the Perspective of the International Law Order",by Shigeki Sakamoto, Emeritus Professor, Kobe University
- May 2021, "Indonesian Views and Perceptions on National Security" by Nobuhiro Aizawa, Associate Professor, Kyushu University
- May, 2021, "The Philippine Foreign and Security Policy Perspective" written by Yusuke Takagi Associate Professor,National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
- May, 2021, "Vietnam's Security: Challenges and Responses" written by Tomotaka Shoji Head, Asia and Africa Division, Regional Studies Department, National Institute for Defense Studies
- March, 2021, "Can the Biden Administration Restore America as a Global Leader?" written by Matake Kamiya, Professor, the National Defense Academy of Japan.
- March, 2021, "The Biden Administration and Japan's Security Strategy" written by Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
- February,2021, "US Foreign and Security Policy Direction Viewed from the Biden Administration's Lineup" written by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- February,2021, "Trade Policies of the Biden Administration" written by Takaaki Asano, Senior Analyst, Sumitomo Corporation Global Research Co. Ltd.
- February,2021, "The Biden Administration's Policy toward Russia" written by Taisuke Abiru, Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- January,2021, "Will US Policy Toward China Change?" lectured by Ryo Sahashi, Associate Professor, the University of Tokyo
- January,2021, "How will China View the Biden Administration?" written by Bonji Ohara, Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- January,2021, "An Assessment of the 2020 US Presidential Election-American Democracy Now-" lectured by Fumiaki Kubo, Professor, the University of Tokyo
- January,2021, "Two Trumpian Mysteries-Why did Trump win over 70 million votes? Why is his outrageous behavior unchecked?-" lectured by Kazuhiro Maeshima, Professor, Sophia University
- September, 2020, "The Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic and Internationa Relationsl" by Matake Kamiya, Professor, National Defense Academy of Japan
- September, 2020, "The Policy Agenda for the Xi Jinping Administration- COVID-19 Countermeasures and China's International Relations -" by Shin Kawashima, Professor, The University of Tokyo
- "Control in the United States and International Relations" by Koji Murata, Professor, Doshisha University
- September, 2020, "The EU's Response to COVID-19 and International Relations" by Yuichi Hosoya, Professor, Keio University
- August, 2020, "The Corona Crisis Seen from a Macroeconomic Perspective" written by Motoshige Itoh, Professor Emeritus, The University of Tokyo
- August, 2020, "The Coronavirus Pandemic and Japan's Infectious Disease Control" written by Takashi Mihara, Senior Research Fellow, NLI Research Institute
- August, 2020, "Infectious Disease Crisis Control in Japan- Recommendations on an Exit Strategy -" written by Kazumasa Oguro, Professor, Hosei University
- August, 2020, "Security against Infectious Disease Threats --- Policy Responses Abroad" written by Takashi Sekiyama, Associate Professor, Kyoto University
- June 2020,"Transformation of the International Order in the Middle East--- Varying Degrees of "Stateness" and Three Directions of the New Order" written by Satoshi Ikeuchi, Professor, Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo
- June 2020,"Destabilization in the Middle East and its Impacts on Japan's Energy Security" written by Amane Kobayashi, Research Fellow, The Institute of Energy Economics
- May 2020: Urgent Recommendations "Toward a V-shaped Recovery after the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic "Coronavirus Testing for All" --- the First Step of the Next Phase"
- May 2020: "US Diplomacy toward Iran: Economic Sanctions as a Diplomatic Tool" Hiroki Sugita Columnist, Kyodo News
- "Russian Factors in the Middle East" Taisuke Abiru Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- "The SDF Dispatches to the Middle East --- History and Significance" Ippeita Nishida Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- March 2020, "Space and Security" Kazuto Suzuki Professor, Hokkaido University
- March 2020, "The US Security Space Policy --- With a Focus on the Establishment of Two Space Forces" Yasuhito Fukushima Chief Researcher, The National Institute for Defense Studies
- March 2020, "China's Recent Activities in Space and Cyberspace" Bonji Ohara Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- March 2020, "Environmental Security and Japan" Takashi Sekiyama Associate Professor, Kyoto University
- March 2020, "Changes in Global Environment and Security --- US Security Strategy" Hideshi Tokuchi Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)
- February 2020, "Cyberspace Security" Motohiro Tsuchiya Professor, Keio University
- February 2020, "Japan's Space and Cyberspace Policy" Yukinari Hirose Former President of the National Institute for Defense Studies
- December 2019, "The US-China Confrontation --- Where Will Hegemony Reside Next?" Akio Takahara Professor, the University of Tokyo
- December 2019, "Challenges Facing the Chinese Economy" Osamu Tanaka Chief Senior Researcher, Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO
- December 2019, "US Strategic Perception on China: Implications for US Allied Partners" Tsuneo Watanabe Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- November 2019, "The Xi Jinping Administration's View of the International Order– China's emphasis on United Nations diplomacy and liberal economic policies−" Shin Kawashima, Professor, the University of Tokyo
- November 2019, "The Future of China's Security Strategy" Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- November 2019, "China --- Its Confidence and Anxiety" Bonji Ohara, Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- August 2019: Several Perspectives on the Korean Peninsula Issue--- The Deteriorating Japan-South Korea Relationship and the Uncertain Denuclearization of North Korea --- By Masahiro Akiyama Chairman, the SSDP
- July 2019, "An Outlook on the Denuclearization of North Korea--- What is the Stance of North Korea?---", Junya Nishino, Professor, Keio University
- July 2019, "An Outlook on the Denuclearization of North Korea --- How will the US move?", Narushige Michishita, Vice President, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- July 2019, "Discussion on Denuclearization of North Korea", SSDP Discussion Meeting on May 8, 2019
- May 2019: "Current Status and Prospects of South Korea and Japan's Frictions over History: How to address the Judicial Problems", Masao Okonogi, Professor Emeritus, Keio University
- May 2019: "South Korea and Japan's Frictions over History" (Comments), Junya Nishino, Professor, Keio University
- May 2019: Japan and South Korea Relationships (Question & Answer)
- March 2019: "The Present State and Prospects of the Indian Economy and Economic Policies" written by Koji Kobayashi, Senior Economist Mizuho Research Institute Ltd.
- March 2019: "The "Modi diplomacy" in the History of Indian diplomacy--- Departure from or maintenance of the traditional diplomacy? ---" written by Toru Ito, The National Defense Academy of Japan
- February 2019: Dynamics of Indian Politics and the 2019 General Elections, written by Chiharu Takenaka, Professor of Rikkyo University
- February 2019: "Cooperative Strategy" to Realize "Competitive Strategy"--- The composite structure of Japan's "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" strategy (vision) ---, written by Matake Kamiya, Professor at The National Defense Academy of Japan
- January 2019:, A paper, "How will the US midterm elections results affect the Trump administration's foreign policy for 2019?" written by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- January 2019:, A paper, "The Present and Future of the International Trade Order" , written by Akihiko Tamura, Professor, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- December 2018: The US-China Competition and Japan, written by Ryo Sahashi, Professor at Kanagawa University
- December 2018: An Outlook for the US-China Trade War―What makes the two economically interdependent superpowers confront each other?―, written by Takashi Sekiyama, Associate professor at Toyo University
- September 2018: Proposal, "The Denuclearization of North Korea and the Restoration of Peace in the Korean Peninsula― Correct Perceptions and Eight Proposals on Japan's North Korea Diplomacy-" edited by the Society of Security and Diplomatic Policy Studies
- September 2018: "The Taiwan Policy of the Xi Jinping Administration in its Second Term: An Outlook on Cross-Strait Relations in the New Era" written by Yasuhiro Matsuda, Professor of the Tokyo University
- July 2018: "The EU States and Russia on North Korea Issues- Expansion of Influence through Diplomacy: Attempts and Limitations -" lectured by Yuichi Hosoya, Professor of Keio University
- "An Assessment of the US-North Korea Summit and an Outlook for the Future of the Korean Peninsula" lectured by Junya Nishino, Professor of Keio University
- "Korean Peninsula Issue and Japan's Future Security Policy" written by Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow of National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- July 2018: "US North Korea policy affected by personnel changes in the Trump administration" lectured by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation.
- "China-North Korea relationship under Xi Jinping" lectured by Shin Kawashima, Professor of the Tokyo University.
- "North Korean Denuclearization and Russia" lectured by Nobuo Shimotomai, Professor of the Hosei University.
- March 2018: "The Network Hegemony Theory for a Security Architecture in The Asia Pacific Region" lectured by Masahiro Akiyama, Chairman, the Society of Security and Diplomatic Policy Studies
- January 2018: "A Destabilized Middle East" lectured by Koichiro Tanaka, Professor, Keio University
- December 2017: "Problems in Sino-Japanese Relations, 1992-2042" lectured by Ezra F. Vogel, Professor of the Social Sciences Emeritus at Harvard University
- November 2017: "The Future of the Asia-Pacific Region" written by Yoriko Kawaguchi, Fellow, the Meiji Institute for Global Affairs, Former Minister Foreign Affairs
- October 2017: "A New Trend in India's Foreign Policy and Japan" Written by HIROSE,Takako, Professor, Senshu University
- August 2017: "The Shocks that shook the Transatlantic World and their Implication for Japan's Foreign Policy" written by HOSOYA, Yuichi, Professor, Keio University
- August 2017: "Does Economic Interdependence not Encourage Collaboration? ―Thinking Japan-China Relations from an Economic Perspective―" written by Takashi SEKIYAMA, Ph.D., Toyo University
- July 2017: Proposal article "The Trump Administration's Impact on the Cross-Strait Relations" written by Yasuhiro Matsuda, Ph.D.
- June 2017: Proposal article "The outlook for the relationship between two great powers and implications for Japanese diplomacy" written by Professor Shin Kawashima
- May 2017: (Emergency Proposal) Facing the Inconvenient Truth: Re-examining Policy for Peace and Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula (Chief author, Masao Okonogi)
- March 2017: "Economic Influences of the Trump Administration" written by Professor Motoshige Ito
- February, 2017: Proposal article "Trump's Foreign and Security Policy - Unpredictable President, Realistic Secretaries - " written by Mr. Tsuneo Watanabe is posted on the website of SSDP.
- December, 2016: Proposal article "Reconsidering North Korea Policy: How to Deal with a Nuclear Armed Divided States" written by Professor Masao Okonogi is posted on the website of SSDP.
- Taiwan-Japan Round Table on August 24th, at Capital Tokyu Hotel
- Japan-Korea Political Leaders Dialogue was held on February 10th,2023 at International House of Japan
- March 2022, A remembrance seminar "Remembering Professor Ezra Vogel" held on January 17, 2022
- March 2021, Japan-ROK Parliamentary Dialogue -Japan-ROK Cooperation in the Era of US-China Competition- held on March 11, 2021
- December 2020: The report of the Japan-ROK Future Dialogue held on November 21 to discuss "Japan-ROK Cooperation in the Post-Covid-19 Era
- October 2020: "Responses to COVID-19 and Agendas for the Post-COVID-19 Era", A Brief Overview of the Japan-Korea Experts Dialogue held on July 29,30, 2020
- October 2020: "The China-Taiwan Confrontation over Corona Response and Taiwan's Security" written by Makoto Ogata, Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
- May 2020: "Rivalries in the Middle East in New Security Dynamics", Written by Sayed Ghoneim, Major General (retired) of the Egyptian Armed Forces, Chairman, Institute for Global Security & Defence Affairs
- March 2020: The Japan-South Korea Relationship in a Cul-de-Sac--- Where is an Exit ? Masao Okonogi Professor Emeritus, Keio Universit
- December 2019: The Hong Kong Upheaval and the Future of Cross-Straits Relations-The 2019 Japan-Taiwan Strategic Dialogue Report OGATA, Makoto Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
- August 2019: Report; 2019 FUTURE CONSENSUS DIALOGUE --Sustainable Prosperity and Future of Korea-U.S.-Japan Cooperation-- By Future Consensus Institute (Yeosijae)
- June 2019: Report on India – Japan Security Dialogue 2019 by Ms. Vindu Mai Chotani, Ph.D Student, The University of Tokyo
-
June 2019: Four papers on Japan-India Cooperation submitted to India-Japan Security Dialogue 2019
-
Japan's Rationale for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision
Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, The Sasakawa Peace Foundation -
The Significance and Possibilities of India-Japan Cooperation in the Concept of the Indo-Pacific
Toru ITO Associate Professor, National Defense Academy of Japan -
Japan-India Defense Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific Context - Operationalizing the Security Aspect of the Indo-Pacific Vision –
Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS) -
India-US-Japan Defense Cooperation: What's next?
Dr. Satoru Nagao, Hudson Institute
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Japan's Rationale for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision
- November 2018: "The Present State of the Japanese Economy and Policy Issues" lectured by Motoshige Itoh, Professor Emeritus at the University of Tokyo.
- November 2018: "Expanding Social Security Expenses and Fiscal Reforms" lectured by Kazumasa Oguro, Professor at Hosei University.
- September 2018: "Taiwan Identity and Cross-Strait Relations and Trump's Taiwan Policy and the Future of Taiwan-US Relations-Discussion at The Second Japan-Taiwan Strategic Dialogue (June 21, 2018, Taipei)-" written by OGATA, Makoto
- September 2018: "Japan-Taiwan Dialogue 2018 Minutes", 21st June 2018, Taipei, Taiwan.
- July 2018: Report on The Second Japan – Philippines Strategic Dialogue prepared by Ms. Vindu Mai Chotani, Ph.D. Student, Graduate School of Public Policy, Tokyo University.
- May 2018: "Civilian Control "at Crisis"? – Perhaps Not, for the Case of the Field Sit-reps from SDF's South Sudan Mission" reported by Ippeita Nishida, Research Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- January 2018: "Fukushima, Genki?Project-Young Taiwanese volunteers introduce the facts on Fukushima's revival through documentary films-" reported by OGATA, Makoto, Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
- December 2017: "Commemorating a Quarter Century of Dispatches of the JSDF's PKO Units: Challenges and Possibilities in the Post South Sudan" written by Takayuki Shoji, Lecturer, Nihon University
- November 2017: "19th CCP National Congress" written by Mr. Bonji Ohara, Senior Research Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Fondation
- October 2017: "What is Japan's Role in the Indo-China border conflict?" written by Dr. NGAO,Satoru, Research Fellow, Institute for Future Engineering
- July 2017: "Overview of the Current Situation in Taiwan-" the Naturally Independent Generation" will affect the Taiwan"s politics-" written by Makoto Ogata MGE.(Ret.)
- June 2017: "Japan-U.S. Economic Dialogue" written by Mr.Takaaki Asano
- March 2017: "The Japan-Philippines Strategic Dialogue" written by Mr. Hideshi Tokuchi
- February, 2017: Current topic "The Importance of Japan's Security Role Under Trump" written by Dr. Satoru Nagao is posted on the SSDP website.
- December, 2016: Current topic "Widening Security Task: Will SDF do the Job?" written by Mr. Ippeita Nishida is posted on the SSDP website.
- January 2025, Research journal "Security Studies vol6 no4" (Where Is the US Headed under the Second Trump Administration- Analysis of the 2024 Presidential Election) in English edition was published.
- October 2024, Research journal "Security Studies vol6 no3" (What Will End the Ukraine War?) in English edition was published.
- July 2024, Research journal "Security Studies vol6 no2" (How Has South Korea Changed under the Yoon Suk-yeol Administration?) in English edition was published.
- April 2024, Research journal "Security Studies vol6 no1" (The Middle East in Turmoil) in English edition was published.
- December 2023, Research journal "Security Studies vol5 no4" (What is th Global South?) in English edition was published.
- September 2023, Research journal "Security Studies vol5 no3" (Hegemonic America: Where It's Headed) in English edition was published.
- June 2023,Research journal "Security Studies vol5 no2" (Nuclear Crisis Scenarios Facing Japan and the Outlook of Nuclear Deterrence and Arms Control and Disarmament) in English edition was published.
- March 2023,Research journal "Security Studies vol5 no1" (What Will Happen to European Security?―Facing the War in Ukraine) in English edition was published.
- January 2023, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 4)" - Defending Our Country – Defense Policy in a "New Cold War Era - was published.
- October 2022, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 3)" - Xi Jinping's China - Politics, Economy, Society and Diplomacy - was published.
- Jun 2022, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 2)" -The Russia-Ukraine War and Its Global Impact- was published.
- March 2022, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 1)"-What is Economic Security?- was published.
- December 2021, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 3 no 4)"-Korean Peninsula Situation- was published.
- September 2021, A research journal "Security Studies vol03 no03" -Asia's Security II- (English edition)
- June 2021, A research journal "Security Studies vol03 no02" -Asia's Security I- (English edition)
- March 2021: Research journal "Security Studies (vol3 no1) "- US Foreign Policy in the Biden Administration / The 2020 US Presidential Election and American Democracy -(English edition)
- December 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no4) "- Normalize Japan-South Korea Relations trough Dialogues -(English edition)
- September 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no3) "-The Novel Coronavirus and Security-(English edition)
- July 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no2) - Middle East Situation and Japan's Security - " (English edition) was published
- May 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no1) - Cyber, Space, Environment and Security - " March 2020 (English edition)
- February 2020, "A research journal "Security Studies (vol1 no4) " (English edition)"
- September 2019: A research journal "Security Studies (vol1 no3) " (English edition)
- August 2019: Korea-Japan Joint Seminar: FUTURE CONSENSUS DIALOGUE
- April 2019: "Security Studies (vol1 no2) April 2019"
- March 2019: A research journal "Security Studies vol1 no01" just published
- February 2019: The Denuclearization of North Korea and the Takeshima Issue
- December 2018: Former Vice Defense Minister Masahiro Akiyama's Memoirs (An Ad)
- November 2018: Participation in the Future Consensus Forum held in Beijing
- September 2018: "2018 Indo-Pacific Security Dialogue" reported by Masahiro Akiyama
- 2017 December: "The Butterfly Project-A possibility of showing a solution to the North Korea problem-"
- October 2017: Campaign on the problems with North Korea
- August 2017: A New Containment Policy Strategy
- June 2017: Korean peninsla
- March 2017: President Duterte
- February, 2017: Kazakhstan
- November, 2016: Participated in Astana Club 2016 held in Kazakhstan on November 14- 16, 2016.