Discussion on Denuclearization of North Korea
SSDP Discussion Meeting on May 8, 2019
(Tokuchi) Professor Nishino has quoted Kim Jong-un's 2019 New Year's Address. In emphasizing the four NOs, Kim Jong-un declared that North Korea "would neither make and test nuclear weapons ‘any longer' nor use and proliferate them." I think this means that North Korea will not abandon nuclear weapons they possess at present. Is this understanding right? When Kim mentioned denuclearization in his New Year's Address, he did not say the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. Is there any particular meaning to the expression?
Another question for Professor Michishita. You have mentioned the control of unstable leaders. What is Kim Jong-un's instability? And as regards North Korea's theft of virtual currencies, how is it done and is there any effective countermeasures against the crime?
(Nishino) Chairman Kim Jong-un is supposed to mean by "not any longer" that North Korea will not create nuclear weapons hereafter, but has not yet decided how to deal with nuclear weapons actually in their possession. As for the four NOs, the conservatives and the progressives in South Korea radically differ in their interpretations --- North Korea will never give up their nuclear weapons, or North Korea will first stop making nuclear weapons and will eventually renounce nuclear weapons in their possession.
It is crystal-clear that the "denuclearization of the Korean peninsula" and "denuclearization of North Korea" have different meanings. According to the statement of a North Korean spokesman on July 6, 2016, the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula is, for North Korea, an idea encompassing such issues as the presence of US forces in South Korea and the deployment of US strategic weapons around the Korean peninsula. Therefore, the North Korean idea of the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula is a broader concept distinct from North Korea's denuclearization generally considered by the international community. However, "complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula," which has been used since last year, is the wording employed in the Panmunjom Declaration on April 27, 2018. What is problematic in this connection is that the definition of "complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula" mentioned in the Panmunjom Declaration has not been defined to date. Although at the Hanoi summit, the United States tried to define the term, North Korea refused a US definition and the talks ended "without agreement."
As Professor Michishita mentioned just now, at the Hanoi summit, North Korea demanded the lifting of economic sanctions, but the United States refused. So, giving up sanctions relief for the time being, North Korea will likely take up again its previous position of starting with the declaration of the end of the Korean War and the opening of a liaison office.
According to media reports, the United States has proposed a "big deal" to exchange North Korea's "complete denuclearization" and "sanctions relief," by following the Libya model. At the same time, however, the United States was reportedly ready to agree to the declaration of the end of the Korean War and the opening of a liaison office, on condition that North Korea first dismantle nuclear facilities in the Nyongbyon area. North Korea may anticipate that sanctions relief will require time, and consider it expedient to first call for the war-end declaration and a liaison office. The North will expect to bargain with the United States about how far the denuclearization process should be advanced to achieve the immediate goals.
(Michishita) I noticed Kim Jong-un's lack of experience twice during the Hanoi summit. First, before the start of negotiations, Kim said nonchalantly, "… from my instincts, I do have a feeling that good results will emerge." Second, it was on the second day of the summit that Kim ventured to answer a question from a media reporter, ignoring Ri Yong-ho's interruption. I felt the North Korean delegation was not working well as a team. Since his inauguration, Kim has demonstrated strange behavior several times--- invited Dennis Rodman (a former US professional basketball star) to Pyongyang; brought foreign reporters to rocket launches; used the Disney character Mickey Mouse without authorization, and visited amusement parks! Kim launched ballistic missiles randomly one after another, and then suddenly stopped. Kim's is a "circus" diplomacy. Former Japanese Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone once said, "Don't take a gamble on diplomacy." I believe this is an important adage. Kim Jong-un undoubtedly equates diplomacy with gambling.
One of the reasons why North Korea has so far managed to do tolerably well is that North Korea acted in very erratic manner from time to time, but showed some professionalism in avoiding fatal mistakes. However, this regime's management control is now deteriorating. The present North Korean leadership is unscrupulously taking risky actions while a general lack in discipline is notable. Kim Jong-un's inexperience may account in part for the current situation. I have an impression that Kim is swayed too much by the enthusiasm to make North Korea an ordinary country. Since, however, enthusiasm could also be a source of positive change I do not deny that it may lead to a good result. Research on the history of North Korea has convinced me that North Korea, regardless of its radical behavior, demonstrates some prudence. Therefore, the present unprecedented situation is, for me, a bit disturbing.
When it comes to North Korea's theft of virtual currencies, admittedly the North is involved in the cyber crime in various ways; but their crime has so far not had serious damage on the international economy, because it does not involve a large sum of money. In response to North Korea's cyber attacks, South Korea took prompt countermeasures. North Korea's cyber attacks ironically helped raise its enemy's cyber security level. Details of North Korea's theft of virtual currencies are not known. The North seems to outsource part of their operations to Chinese hacker groups through the dark web. One North Korean hacker has been fully identified. He is Park Jin Hyok by name, listed on the FBI's Cyber's Most Wanted. It is certain that North Korea is currently engaged in systematic cyber attacks with considerable capability. Nonetheless, their effects are limited. We have taken advantage of their attacks to solidify our defense.
(Okonogi) First, I would like to ask a question to Professor Nishino. I agree with your discussion on North Korea's reaction; but I wonder if there may be something more to it than that. I think that it is true as you have discussed that North Korea is prepared for a long-term struggle based on a policy of self-reliance. Not that they have abandoned negotiations with the United States, on the contrary they are betting on the bilateral negotiations. What I would like to draw attention to is that they said they would wait for a positive response from the United States until the end of this year. I am entirely in agreement with Professor Nishino that such a delay in negotiations would affect the US Presidential election. However, I do not think that this is everything. North Korea escalated military provocations in 2016-17 and conducted ICBM tests. It was an agreed upon view then that what remained for North Korea to do was to develop re-entry technology for nuclear warheads. Therefore, a plausible interpretation is that the failure of the Hanoi summit will lead the North back to provocations. While exploring the possibility of further negotiations, they may be likely to make preparations and resume provocations. The recent launch of a short-range guided weapon may be considered the first step to resume provocations. While President Trump says that he would not mind if negotiations took ten years time, North Korea is directly challenging the US President. North Korea had negotiated with the United States for a year since the first summit in Singapore and will wait for another year from the Hanoi talks --- they will thereby gain two years for a further development of missiles. Unless the United States abandons the American style of evaluation, North Korea might surreptitiously complete re-entry technology for nuclear warheads and succeed in ICBM development. How should we address this "ultimate threat" scenario, which would be a life or death choice for North Korea?
Another comment of mine concerns China. When I was talking with Chinese experts, they predicted that the mutual visits between the leaders of China and North Korea would take place this year. China wants Kim Jong-un to attend the ceremony for the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China this October. At the time of the 70th anniversary of victory over Japan last year, South Korean President Park Geun-hye was invited. This time China is seeking to invite Kim Jong-un to this year's anniversary ceremony. To this end, Xi Jinping will have to visit Pyongyang no later than this summer. Then, Kim Jong-un will pay a return visit to Beijing this autumn, standing on Tiananmen gate tower as Park Geun-hye did last year. According to Chinese experts this is a plausible scenario. It is necessary, however, to consider another scenario, namely what will happen in the China-North Korea relationship, if the first scenario fails to realize.
At the time of the Hanoi summit, the North-South Korean dialogue and the US-North Korea negotiations were conducted in parallel. There were three protagonists on that occasion. However, since Kim Jong-un visited China four times in connection with the summit, it may be said that the summit was actually held among the "three plus one." This negotiation framework was undone in Hanoi. The North-South Korean dialogue has come to a standstill because the US-North Korea negotiations were at a stalemate. If the two sets of talks do not progress, some change will occur, and the relationship between China and North Korea may become closer, or alternatively, more distant. North Korea may be considering various scenarios.
Japan's North Korea policy will ultimately depend on how North Korea will react. Will Kim Jong-un abide by the conventional policy of dealing directly with President Trump, waving off Japan, or will he welcome the opportunity of negotiating with Japan to encourage talks with the United States by way of Japan. I cannot tell at this moment which scenario is accurate. Even if Prime Minister Abe participated in negotiations with North Korea, the negotiations, I am afraid, would turn out to be similar to those with Russia. How should he solve the abduction issue, which is as hard to address as the territorial issue with Russia? Unless Japan lowers considerably the negotiation barrier, the problem will not be solved. However, the abductees' families in Japan will not agree to lower the barrier. Since North Korea has no means to know PM Abe's true thinking, they may regard Japan's overture for negotiations as a trap.
(Nishino) Although the possibility of the worst case noted by Professor Okonogi cannot be excluded, ultimately it will depend on how North Korea evaluates the person of Donald Trump. The reason why President Trump is satisfied to some extent with the current situation is that North Korea has stopped conducting nuclear tests and ICBM launches. It will be crucial to see how North Korea understand President Trump's "Red Line." In addition, I think another important point to consider is how far China should condone North Korea's provocative behavior. In other words, North Korea will decide the course of its future actions, taking into account its relationship with the United States as well as with China.
(Okonogi) Allow me to add some words. When North Korea resumes its provocations, they will not only escalate provocations but will do so with a sensitive timing near the US Presidential election to make their provocations more effective. They will try to show with this difficult (for the US) timing that the Trump diplomacy toward North Korea has failed.
(Nishino) Certainly, North Korea has an "experience of success" when in October 2006, toward the end of the Bush administration, North Korea came to the bargaining table with the United States after nuclear test provocations, extracting concessions from the United States. This time North Korea may consider such factors in deciding the course of its future actions namely that it has to negotiate with the unpredictable Donald Trump; and President Trump is a strong candidate for a second term as US presidency.
I would appreciate if Professor Kawashima could comment on the mutual visits of the leaders of China and North Korea. Kim Jong-un's expected visit to Beijing on October 1 this year will be meaningful to China. Meanwhile, many people estimate that Xi Jinping will visit Pyongyang this year. I would like to hear from you, an expert on Chinese politics, about how much China considers the October 1 event important in the light of the China-North Korea relationship.
(Michishita) I think there is a possibility that North Korea will resume provocations. During the second round of nuclear crisis, North Korea launched missiles on July 4, 2006 and carried out its first nuclear test in October of the same year. Also at the time of the 1994 crisis, North Korea fanned a sense of crisis by means of verbal intimidation ("Turn Seoul into a sea of fire.") or by flying a large number of fighter aircraft at one time. As Professor Nishino pointed out, North Korea's excessive provocations would invite the risk of frustrating the bilateral negotiations. As Professor Okonogi said, North Korea would escalate provocations, capitalizing on the US domestic political situation. In that case, it is feared that President Trump will make use of North Korean provocations to create a sense of crisis, thereby raising his own approval ratings. This would be the worst scenario and one for Japan to avoid --- a North Korean crisis looming over Japan before the Tokyo Olympics.
It was in 1988-1989, 2000, 2002, and 2014 that North Korea tried to talk to Japan. It was when the North was unable to negotiate with the United States. My impression is that North Korea did not approach Japan to overcome crises. It seems to me that North Korea approached Japan in the past when it was ignored by the United States. Of course this is a pattern that would change depending on the situation.
(Okonogi) In that case, since the Abe-Trump partnership is working well, President Trump may entrust PM Abe for a time to handle North Korea diplomacy, or PM Abe may be considered the best intermediary to persuade President Trump. This has nothing to do with whether or not PM Abe has ever negotiated with North Korea.
(Akiyama) Professor Kawashima, I would like to ask for your comments on the China-North Korea relationship --- not only on that, but also on related issues from the standpoint of China. For example, we have discussed the collapse of the US-ROK alliance, and South Korea's position on that matter. I think these are significant issues for Japan and for China as well.
(Kawashima) Around March this year, the spokesman of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said at a press conference, "China and North Korea maintain good friendly relations. When Chairman Xi goes to Pyongyang, we will advise you in advance" in answering a question about the possibility of Xi Jinping's visit to North Korea. This remark was interpreted as being affirmative on Xi's visit. Simultaneously, sometime just before April, China stressed that 2019 marks the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and North Korea, and a move began for the diplomatic normalization between the two countries. Kim Jong-un then visited Beijing, and there were a series of events commemorating the 70th anniversary of the establishment of bilateral diplomatic relations. On the occasion of those events, Xi Jinping made a comment that the two countries' relationship would advance a step forward this year. So, there was a feeling in April that Xi Jinping would go to Pyongyang.
The second point is the 70th anniversary of the founding of the PRC. It does not necessarily appear in senior-level remarks, but may appear to justify Xi's visit to North Korea in addition to the 70th anniversary of the establishment of bilateral diplomatic relations. It seems not to necessarily have appeared in senior -level remarks.
The third point is about the timing of the mutual visits, which is closely connected with North Korea and China's relationship with the United States --- the United States, China and North Korea form a triangle, each occupying a corner. At the recent US-China talks, President Trump got angry, almost losing his temper. Regarding the issue of intellectual property right, the United States may have felt insulted, because China unilaterally declared that the measures they had earlier promised to implement by law should be confirmed by a simple statement. This seems to be the reason that the US side became very angry. Meanwhile, an increasing number of Chinese ships navigated near the Senkaku islands in March and April this year. This may be related to a conservative backlash that seems to be in progress in China. Since the Central Conference on Work Relating to Foreign Affairs in June last year, the Chinese moderates have gained power and proposed concessions to get along with the United States. Now, some backlash is expected to happen. In the midst of these circumstances, the progress of North Korea's negotiations with the United States and Xi Jinping's visit to Pyongyang are linked to one another. The more the United States adopts a hawkish stance against North Korea, the more the North will look to China for help. Being aware that North Korea is observing the current China-US standoff, China may mull over the timing of Xi's visit to Pyongyang --- after the settlement of disputes with the United States, or rather at the time of a confrontation, carrying a proposal of facing jointly the pressing challenges posed by the United States. The course of events in the future cannot be foreseen. My perception is that China would react in either of the two scenarios described above.
Mr. Akiyama's question on how to see the US-ROK alliance is linked to the current situation in Taiwan. As this year falls on an election year in Taiwan, China is making outright intervention in Taiwan's internal affairs. The Japanese media does not report on this. In the neighborhood of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association's Taipei office, a demonstration occurred in early May, and some KMT leaders forced themselves into the office more than once. Utilizing the KMT, the Chinese Communist Party is increasing its activity in Taiwan. On the other hand, in South Korea, an anti-US movement has been increasing since last year, calling for the scrapping of the US-ROK alliance or reverting to the era of the Acheson Line. In that sense China is very sensitive to the fate of the faltering US-ROK military alliance and to the Taiwan's unstable domestic situation. This, however, may not necessarily be because the United States has become indifferent to the US-ROK alliance. The US attitude to Taiwan is different. There are quite a few people in Washington who argue that the United States should protect Taiwan by all means and should be more involved in Taiwan affairs than before. Bolstered by such opinions, Tsai Ing-wen abruptly proposed a military dialogue with Japan in a Sankei Shimbun article. Ordinary Japanese people may find difficulties in grasping the real intent of such a proposal. But viewed from Washington, this is not necessarily a strange proposal. The South Korean problem and the Taiwan problem are eliciting out different reactions from Washington. The Trump administration seems not to demonstrate consistency in its diplomacy on South Korea and Taiwan.
(Hiraizumi) Basically, as Professor Michishita said, I think the US-North Korea issue will depend on political trends in the United States. We cannot discuss this problem with no knowledge of US intentions. I was in the United States in early May and watched CNN and Fox News alternately every hour. Unexpectedly, their contents were so widely apart or almost opposite that I could not believe I was watching news on the same topic in the same country. Among major topics I noted then were the Russia gate scandal, still a significant problem; the treatment of pre-existing medical conditions and health insurance; the abolishment of Obamacare declared by Attorney General Barr, and the emergence of Joe Biden as a Democratic presidential candidate, who is popular and is expected to win votes in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and to become a huge threat to President Trump.
The other thing that is of concern to me is that the United States seems to be going further to subvert the present regime in Iran than merely intensifying sanctions against the country, or by mounting pressure by dispatching troops. Is the case of Iran connected in some way or another with the North Korean issue? How will the United States address the problems of North Korea and Iran in the course of the upcoming election campaign? Intuitively I believe that the Iran issue is much more important because of the existence of Israel, while North Korea seems to be just a minor issue. In fact, during my recent stay in the United States, most news programs did not cover North Korea, and the question of Iran was given much more media exposure. I think it will be necessary to see how policy priorities will change and which policy will affect the elections. With regard to North Korea, everything will depend on which stage the United States will aim at in its five-step reactions explained by professor Nishino --- (1) North Korean regime guarantee; (2) the declaration of the end of the Korean War; (3) the establishment of a liaison office; (4) sanctions relief, and (5) economic cooperation.
(Michishita) Let's say something about Joe Biden who has recently come to the fore. The Democratic Party is now relatively inclined to the left; therefore, a libertarian Bernie Sanders is quite powerful. It is feared that the Democratic Party will split and not have the support of young people.
(Hiraizumi) According to a CNN public opinion poll, the Democratic Party places top priority on the removal of Trump or on the nomination of a presidential candidate who could beat Trump. Joe Biden has the possibility of becoming the Democratic Party candidate for the 2020 US presidential election. Bernie Sanders is considered to lean too much to the left to win the presidential election. Unless Biden becomes involved in a scandal until November next year, he will become the Democratic Party candidate. According to the current CNN public opinion poll, Trump will lose to Biden. Incidentally, in case of Beto O'Rourke vs. Trump, the latter is also expected to lose. The opponent whom Trump could beat is only Elizabeth Warren.
(Nishino) Returning to the North Korean issue, probably the gravest concern is that President Trump is losing interest in it. As his interest in it diminishes, the United States will not lower the negotiation threshold. As a consequence, there is the likelihood that the current stalled situation will continue until into 2020 or beyond. In that situation, will North Korea make a compromise, or resort to brinksmanship? Ultimately, I think North Korea will lower the negotiation threshold, but it is uncertain whether the United States will accept it. Unless President Trump pays attention again to the North Korean issue in connection with the US presidential election, the current stalemate may remain unchanged.
(Michishita) North Korea fears most being neglected. In that sense, nobody can deny the possibility that North Korea will call upon Japan for economic aid in 2020 when Japan will be most apprehensive about provocations by North Korea in connection with the Tokyo Olympics. It is a technique of the kind that would work only for about a year. One of the options for Japan to take may be to provide financial assistance and persuade the North not to behave irresponsibly during the Olympic period.
(Yoshida) Why did President Trump allow his followers to restrain him?
(Michishita) According to Mr. Makino of the Asahi Shimbun, when President Trump was about to make a compromise at the summit meeting in Hanoi, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo pulled him out of the room, warned him by saying, "If you concede here, you will not be re-elected." Given Michael Cohen's congressional testimony, President Trump accepted the warning and after this he became very tough. I do not know if this scene actually happened, but I think the story is credible. From today's vantage point, Cohen's testimony held President Trump back from rushing into a compromise.
(Nishino) It seems to me that national security adviser John Bolton played a certain role. Negotiations on the so-called "appropriate measures" taken by the United States made progress on the occasions of US Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun's visit to Pyongyang in early February and the Hanoi summit in mid-February. On the other hand, however, no agreement was reached on concrete measures for the denuclearization North Korea. As a result, the US delegation including Bolton and Pompeo seems to have decided to attend the Hanoi summit with a rather hard position. The Hanoi summit ended "without agreement," and was also adversely affected by Michael Cohen's testimony before Congress.
(This paper was translated into English by Tsutomu Inuzuka, SSDP Associate)
December 2022, Proposal "Defending Our Country – Defense Policy in a New Cold War Era" was announced
- Front Cover
- Changes in the Security Environment Surrounding Japan - Shifting Power Balance and the Three Front Threats Ken Jimbo
- How Will "Japan Contingencies" Emerge? Osamu Onoda
- The Japan-US Alliance Revisited: Is it Dependable? Chikako Kawakatsu Ueki
- A New Phase of Defense Diplomacy and Defense Production and Technology Base Ippeita Nishida, Tsuneo Watanabe
- Intelligence Activities in the Post-Ukraine War Era Jun Nagashima
- Responding to the Nuclear Threat Masashi Murano
- No Time to Lose for Improving Japan's Defense Capabilities - Can the JSDF Defend the Homeland? - Ryoichi Oriki
- Toward the Formulation of a New "National Security Strategy" Hideshi Tokuchi
- October 2022, "Japan-China Relations under the Long-term Administration of Xi Jinping: Current Status, Prospects, and Expectations" written by Kazuyuki Suwa, Professor, University of Shizuoka
- October 2022, "China's Policy on the Global South --- China's World View and the Configuration of the US-China Confrontation " written by Shin Kawashima, Professor, the University of Tokyo
- October 2022, "Military Strategy of Xi Jinping's China" written by Bonji Ohara, Senior Fellow, Sasagawa Peace Foundation
- September 2022, " Social Governance by the Communist Party of China: The Present State and the Future Prospects " written by Kazuko Kojima, Professor, Keio University
- September 2022, "The Relationship between Domestic Politics and Diplomacy under the Xi Jinping Administration- Why Were the Large-Scale Military Exercises Decided?" written by Chisako T. Masuo, Professor, Kyushu University
- September 2022, "Xi Jinping's China--- Prospects for Its Climate Change Policy ---" written by Takashi Sekiyama, Associate Professor, The University of Kyoto
- August 2022, " Current Assessment of the Xi Jinping's Rule and Prospects for the Third Term of the Xi Administration " written by Takashi Suzuki, Associate Professor, Aichi Prefectural University
- August 2022, " Economic Challenges Awaiting the Xi Jinping Administration As it Enters its Third Term" written by Toshiya Tsugami, Director, Tsugami Toshiya's Works
- July 2022, "The Russian Invasion of Ukraine and the Future International Legal Order" written by Masahiro Kurosaki, Associate Professor, National Defense Academy
- July 2022, "The Ukraine War and Security in East Asia" written by Narushige Michishita, Vice President, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- July 2022, "How Will the Ukraine War Change the New US-China Cold War?" written by Yasuhiro Matsuda, Professor, the University of Tokyo
- July 2022, "Impact of the Ukraine War on the Global Economy" written by Tatsuhiko Yoshizaki, Chief Economist, Sojitz Research Institute, Ltd.
- June 2022, "Why War Occurs in Europe?--The Structural Transformation of the European Security Order in the Post-Cold War Era --" written by Yuichi Hosoya, Professor, Keio University
- June 2022,"The Russia-Ukrainian War and the Behind-the-Scenes Stance of the United States" "On Economic Security" written by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- June 2022, "The Russia-Ukraine War and NATO", written by Michito Tsuruoka, Associate Professor, Keio University
- June 2022, "The Ukrainian War Viewed from Theories of International Politics" written by Matake Kamiya, Professor, National Defens Academy
- March 2022, "Economic Security Challenges and Cyber Security" written by Jun Osawa, Senior Research Fellow, Nakasone Peace Institute
- March 2022, "On Economic Security" written by Matake Kamiya, Professor, the Ntional Defense Academy
- March 2022, ""Economic Security" and the Review of the 2013 NSS and the Related Strategy Documents" written by Nobushige Takamizawa, Visiting Professor, the University of Tokyo
- March 2022, "The US-China Rivalry and Economic Security" written by Yuzo Murayama, Professor, Doshisya University
- March 2022, "Japan's National Security Policies and Science and Technology" written by Nobukatsu Kanehara, Professor, Doshisya University
- March 2022, "Economic Security in the Free Trade Regime" written by Kazuto Suzuki, Professor, the University of Tokyo
- January 2022, "The 2022 South Korean Presidential Election and the Next Administration's Foreign and Security Policy" written by Junya Nishino, Professor, Keio University
- January 2022, "North Korea's Nuclear and Missile Development and Japan's Defense" written by Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, GRIPS
- January 2022, "What will Become of Japan-South Korea Relations? The 1965 Japan-South Korea Treaty System in Jeopardy" written by Masao Okonogi, Professor Emeritus, Keio University
- December 2021, "Economic and Social Conditions in North Korea and its Relations with South Korea" written by Mitsuhiro Mimura, Chief Research Fellow, The Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia.
- December 2021, "China's Korean Peninsula Policy and North Korea" written by Shin Kawashima, Professor, the University of Tokyo.
- December 2021, "China's Korean Peninsula Policy and North Korea" written by Shunji Hiraiwa, Professor, Nanzan University.
- December 2021, "What to Do with the Relations with North Korea?" written by Hitoshi Tanaka, Chairman for Institute for International Strategy at the Japan Research Institute.
- October 2021, "Strategic Implications of North Korea's Enhanced Nuclear and Missile Capabilities" written by Narushige Michishita, Vice President, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
- October 2021, "The Biden Administration's North Korea Policy: Its Low Priority and Looming Crises" written by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation.
- October 2021, "The Evolution of the US-ROK Alliance: Tasks in the Biden Era" written by Yasuyo Sakata, Professor, Kanda University of International Studies.
- September 2021, "The Development of Regional Security Architecture: From Asia-Pacific to Indo-Pacific" written by Ken Jimbo, Professor, Keio University.
- September 2021, "The Strategic Development of Japanese Security Cooperation under Superpower Competition and the Development of the FOIP and its Operationalization" written by Nobushige Takamizawa, Visiting Professor, Graduate School of Public Policy, The University of Tokyo.
- August 2021, "Security Perceptions of Central Asian Countries--- From the Perspective of China Studies ---" written by Shin Kawashima, Professor, the University of Tokyo.
- August 2021, "Security in the Indian Ocean Region---Implication of the Galwan Incident for QUAD in the Indo-Pacific" written by Dr. Satoru Nagao, Fellow (Non-Resident), Hudson Institute.
- August 2021, "Easternization and Security in Asia" written by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation.
- July 2021, "The Ideas of "Autonomy" and "Self-Reliance" in Contemporary India's Foreign Strategy" written by Kazutoshi TAMARI, Associate Professor,Chukyo University.
- July 2021, "Thailand's Security Policies and Threat Perceptions" written by Saya Kiba, Associate Professor, Komatsu University, Faculty of Intercultural Communication.
- July 2021, "Myanmar's Security Perceptions and the February 1 Coup d'Etat" written by Yoshihiro Nakanishi, Associate Professor, Kyoto University.
- July 2021, "Australia's Security Perceptions and the "Asia Threat"" written byTomohiko Satake, Senior Fellow, Defense Policy Division, Policy Studies Department, NIDS .
- June 2021, "The Indo-Pacific Regional Architecture: Its Future--- Multipolar Order Beyond US-China Relations ---" by Tsutomu Kikuchi, Professor, Aoyama Gakuin University
- June 2021, "The Quad Plus in the Security of Asia: Its Significance and Outlook" by Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- June 2021, "Indonesian Views and Perceptions on National Security" by Nobuhiro Aizawa, Associate Professor, The Graduate School of Social and Cultural Studies, Kyushu University
- June 2021, "Normalized Tensions in the Cross-Strait Relations--- Structural Changes in Taiwanese Society and the Xi Jinping Administration's Strategic Shift ---" by Yasuhiro Matsuda, Professor, The University of Tokyo
- June 2021, "China's Maritime Strategy and Responses of the United States and Japan" by Yoji Koda, Former Commander in Chief, Self Defense Fleet
- June 2021, "The South China Issues from the Perspective of the International Law Order",by Shigeki Sakamoto, Emeritus Professor, Kobe University
- May 2021, "Indonesian Views and Perceptions on National Security" by Nobuhiro Aizawa, Associate Professor, Kyushu University
- May, 2021, "The Philippine Foreign and Security Policy Perspective" written by Yusuke Takagi Associate Professor,National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
- May, 2021, "Vietnam's Security: Challenges and Responses" written by Tomotaka Shoji Head, Asia and Africa Division, Regional Studies Department, National Institute for Defense Studies
- March, 2021, "Can the Biden Administration Restore America as a Global Leader?" written by Matake Kamiya, Professor, the National Defense Academy of Japan.
- March, 2021, "The Biden Administration and Japan's Security Strategy" written by Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
- February,2021, "US Foreign and Security Policy Direction Viewed from the Biden Administration's Lineup" written by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- February,2021, "Trade Policies of the Biden Administration" written by Takaaki Asano, Senior Analyst, Sumitomo Corporation Global Research Co. Ltd.
- February,2021, "The Biden Administration's Policy toward Russia" written by Taisuke Abiru, Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- January,2021, "Will US Policy Toward China Change?" lectured by Ryo Sahashi, Associate Professor, the University of Tokyo
- January,2021, "How will China View the Biden Administration?" written by Bonji Ohara, Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- January,2021, "An Assessment of the 2020 US Presidential Election－American Democracy Now－" lectured by Fumiaki Kubo, Professor, the University of Tokyo
- January,2021, "Two Trumpian Mysteries－Why did Trump win over 70 million votes? Why is his outrageous behavior unchecked?－" lectured by Kazuhiro Maeshima, Professor, Sophia University
- September, 2020, "The Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic and Internationa Relationsl" by Matake Kamiya, Professor, National Defense Academy of Japan
- September, 2020, "The Policy Agenda for the Xi Jinping Administration- COVID-19 Countermeasures and China's International Relations -" by Shin Kawashima, Professor, The University of Tokyo
- "Control in the United States and International Relations" by Koji Murata, Professor, Doshisha University
- September, 2020, "The EU's Response to COVID-19 and International Relations" by Yuichi Hosoya, Professor, Keio University
- August, 2020, "The Corona Crisis Seen from a Macroeconomic Perspective" written by Motoshige Itoh, Professor Emeritus, The University of Tokyo
- August, 2020, "The Coronavirus Pandemic and Japan's Infectious Disease Control" written by Takashi Mihara, Senior Research Fellow, NLI Research Institute
- August, 2020, "Infectious Disease Crisis Control in Japan- Recommendations on an Exit Strategy -" written by Kazumasa Oguro, Professor, Hosei University
- August, 2020, "Security against Infectious Disease Threats --- Policy Responses Abroad" written by Takashi Sekiyama, Associate Professor, Kyoto University
- June 2020,"Transformation of the International Order in the Middle East--- Varying Degrees of "Stateness" and Three Directions of the New Order" written by Satoshi Ikeuchi, Professor, Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo
- June 2020,"Destabilization in the Middle East and its Impacts on Japan's Energy Security" written by Amane Kobayashi, Research Fellow, The Institute of Energy Economics
- May 2020: Urgent Recommendations "Toward a V-shaped Recovery after the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic "Coronavirus Testing for All" --- the First Step of the Next Phase"
- May 2020: "US Diplomacy toward Iran: Economic Sanctions as a Diplomatic Tool" Hiroki Sugita Columnist, Kyodo News
- "Russian Factors in the Middle East" Taisuke Abiru Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- "The SDF Dispatches to the Middle East --- History and Significance" Ippeita Nishida Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- March 2020, "Space and Security" Kazuto Suzuki Professor, Hokkaido University
- March 2020, "The US Security Space Policy --- With a Focus on the Establishment of Two Space Forces" Yasuhito Fukushima Chief Researcher, The National Institute for Defense Studies
- March 2020, "China's Recent Activities in Space and Cyberspace" Bonji Ohara Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- March 2020, "Environmental Security and Japan" Takashi Sekiyama Associate Professor, Kyoto University
- March 2020, "Changes in Global Environment and Security --- US Security Strategy" Hideshi Tokuchi Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)
- February 2020, "Cyberspace Security" Motohiro Tsuchiya Professor, Keio University
- February 2020, "Japan's Space and Cyberspace Policy" Yukinari Hirose Former President of the National Institute for Defense Studies
- December 2019, "The US-China Confrontation --- Where Will Hegemony Reside Next?" Akio Takahara Professor, the University of Tokyo
- December 2019, "Challenges Facing the Chinese Economy" Osamu Tanaka Chief Senior Researcher, Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO
- December 2019, "US Strategic Perception on China: Implications for US Allied Partners" Tsuneo Watanabe Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- November 2019, "The Xi Jinping Administration's View of the International Order– China's emphasis on United Nations diplomacy and liberal economic policies−" Shin Kawashima, Professor, the University of Tokyo
- November 2019, "The Future of China's Security Strategy" Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- November 2019, "China --- Its Confidence and Anxiety" Bonji Ohara, Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- August 2019: Several Perspectives on the Korean Peninsula Issue--- The Deteriorating Japan-South Korea Relationship and the Uncertain Denuclearization of North Korea --- By Masahiro Akiyama Chairman, the SSDP
- July 2019, "An Outlook on the Denuclearization of North Korea--- What is the Stance of North Korea?---", Junya Nishino, Professor, Keio University
- July 2019, "An Outlook on the Denuclearization of North Korea --- How will the US move?", Narushige Michishita, Vice President, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- July 2019, "Discussion on Denuclearization of North Korea", SSDP Discussion Meeting on May 8, 2019
- May 2019: "Current Status and Prospects of South Korea and Japan's Frictions over History: How to address the Judicial Problems", Masao Okonogi, Professor Emeritus, Keio University
- May 2019: "South Korea and Japan's Frictions over History" (Comments), Junya Nishino, Professor, Keio University
- May 2019: Japan and South Korea Relationships (Question & Answer)
- March 2019: "The Present State and Prospects of the Indian Economy and Economic Policies" written by Koji Kobayashi, Senior Economist Mizuho Research Institute Ltd.
- March 2019: "The "Modi diplomacy" in the History of Indian diplomacy--- Departure from or maintenance of the traditional diplomacy? ---" written by Toru Ito, The National Defense Academy of Japan
- February 2019: Dynamics of Indian Politics and the 2019 General Elections, written by Chiharu Takenaka, Professor of Rikkyo University
- February 2019: "Cooperative Strategy" to Realize "Competitive Strategy"--- The composite structure of Japan's "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" strategy (vision) ---, written by Matake Kamiya, Professor at The National Defense Academy of Japan
- January 2019:, A paper, "How will the US midterm elections results affect the Trump administration's foreign policy for 2019?" written by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- January 2019:, A paper, "The Present and Future of the International Trade Order" , written by Akihiko Tamura, Professor, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- December 2018: The US-China Competition and Japan, written by Ryo Sahashi, Professor at Kanagawa University
- December 2018: An Outlook for the US-China Trade War―What makes the two economically interdependent superpowers confront each other?―, written by Takashi Sekiyama, Associate professor at Toyo University
- September 2018: Proposal, "The Denuclearization of North Korea and the Restoration of Peace in the Korean Peninsula― Correct Perceptions and Eight Proposals on Japan's North Korea Diplomacy－" edited by the Society of Security and Diplomatic Policy Studies
- September 2018: "The Taiwan Policy of the Xi Jinping Administration in its Second Term: An Outlook on Cross-Strait Relations in the New Era" written by Yasuhiro Matsuda, Professor of the Tokyo University
- July 2018: "The EU States and Russia on North Korea Issues- Expansion of Influence through Diplomacy: Attempts and Limitations -" lectured by Yuichi Hosoya, Professor of Keio University
- "An Assessment of the US-North Korea Summit and an Outlook for the Future of the Korean Peninsula" lectured by Junya Nishino, Professor of Keio University
- "Korean Peninsula Issue and Japan's Future Security Policy" written by Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow of National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- July 2018: "US North Korea policy affected by personnel changes in the Trump administration" lectured by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation.
- "China-North Korea relationship under Xi Jinping" lectured by Shin Kawashima, Professor of the Tokyo University.
- "North Korean Denuclearization and Russia" lectured by Nobuo Shimotomai, Professor of the Hosei University.
- March 2018: "The Network Hegemony Theory for a Security Architecture in The Asia Pacific Region" lectured by Masahiro Akiyama, Chairman, the Society of Security and Diplomatic Policy Studies
- January 2018: "A Destabilized Middle East" lectured by Koichiro Tanaka, Professor, Keio University
- December 2017: "Problems in Sino-Japanese Relations, 1992-2042" lectured by Ezra F. Vogel, Professor of the Social Sciences Emeritus at Harvard University
- November 2017: "The Future of the Asia-Pacific Region" written by Yoriko Kawaguchi, Fellow, the Meiji Institute for Global Affairs, Former Minister Foreign Affairs
- October 2017: "A New Trend in India's Foreign Policy and Japan" Written by HIROSE,Takako, Professor, Senshu University
- August 2017: "The Shocks that shook the Transatlantic World and their Implication for Japan's Foreign Policy" written by HOSOYA, Yuichi, Professor, Keio University
- August 2017: "Does Economic Interdependence not Encourage Collaboration? ―Thinking Japan-China Relations from an Economic Perspective―" written by Takashi SEKIYAMA, Ph.D., Toyo University
- July 2017: Proposal article "The Trump Administration's Impact on the Cross-Strait Relations" written by Yasuhiro Matsuda, Ph.D.
- June 2017: Proposal article "The outlook for the relationship between two great powers and implications for Japanese diplomacy" written by Professor Shin Kawashima
- May 2017: (Emergency Proposal) Facing the Inconvenient Truth: Re-examining Policy for Peace and Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula (Chief author, Masao Okonogi)
- March 2017: "Economic Influences of the Trump Administration" written by Professor Motoshige Ito
- February, 2017: Proposal article "Trump's Foreign and Security Policy - Unpredictable President, Realistic Secretaries - " written by Mr. Tsuneo Watanabe is posted on the website of SSDP.
- December, 2016: Proposal article "Reconsidering North Korea Policy: How to Deal with a Nuclear Armed Divided States" written by Professor Masao Okonogi is posted on the website of SSDP.
- March 2022, A remembrance seminar "Remembering Professor Ezra Vogel" held on January 17, 2022
- March 2021, Japan-ROK Parliamentary Dialogue -Japan-ROK Cooperation in the Era of US-China Competition- held on March 11, 2021
- December 2020: The report of the Japan-ROK Future Dialogue held on November 21 to discuss "Japan-ROK Cooperation in the Post-Covid-19 Era
- October 2020: "Responses to COVID-19 and Agendas for the Post-COVID-19 Era", A Brief Overview of the Japan-Korea Experts Dialogue held on July 29,30, 2020
- October 2020: "The China-Taiwan Confrontation over Corona Response and Taiwan's Security" written by Makoto Ogata, Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
- May 2020: "Rivalries in the Middle East in New Security Dynamics", Written by Sayed Ghoneim, Major General (retired) of the Egyptian Armed Forces, Chairman, Institute for Global Security & Defence Affairs
- March 2020: The Japan-South Korea Relationship in a Cul-de-Sac--- Where is an Exit ? Masao Okonogi Professor Emeritus, Keio Universit
- December 2019: The Hong Kong Upheaval and the Future of Cross-Straits Relations－The 2019 Japan-Taiwan Strategic Dialogue Report OGATA, Makoto Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
- August 2019: Report; 2019 FUTURE CONSENSUS DIALOGUE --Sustainable Prosperity and Future of Korea-U.S.-Japan Cooperation-- By Future Consensus Institute (Yeosijae)
- June 2019: Report on India – Japan Security Dialogue 2019 by Ms. Vindu Mai Chotani, Ph.D Student, The University of Tokyo
June 2019: Four papers on Japan-India Cooperation submitted to India-Japan Security Dialogue 2019
Japan's Rationale for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision
Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, The Sasakawa Peace Foundation
The Significance and Possibilities of India-Japan Cooperation in the Concept of the Indo-Pacific
Toru ITO Associate Professor, National Defense Academy of Japan
Japan-India Defense Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific Context - Operationalizing the Security Aspect of the Indo-Pacific Vision –
Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)
India-US-Japan Defense Cooperation: What's next?
Dr. Satoru Nagao, Hudson Institute
- Japan's Rationale for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision
- November 2018: "The Present State of the Japanese Economy and Policy Issues" lectured by Motoshige Itoh, Professor Emeritus at the University of Tokyo.
- November 2018: "Expanding Social Security Expenses and Fiscal Reforms" lectured by Kazumasa Oguro, Professor at Hosei University.
- September 2018: "Taiwan Identity and Cross-Strait Relations and Trump's Taiwan Policy and the Future of Taiwan-US Relations-Discussion at The Second Japan-Taiwan Strategic Dialogue (June 21, 2018, Taipei)-" written by OGATA, Makoto
- September 2018: "Japan-Taiwan Dialogue 2018 Minutes", 21st June 2018, Taipei, Taiwan.
- July 2018: Report on The Second Japan – Philippines Strategic Dialogue prepared by Ms. Vindu Mai Chotani, Ph.D. Student, Graduate School of Public Policy, Tokyo University.
- May 2018: "Civilian Control "at Crisis"? – Perhaps Not, for the Case of the Field Sit-reps from SDF's South Sudan Mission" reported by Ippeita Nishida, Research Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- January 2018: "Fukushima, Genki？Project－Young Taiwanese volunteers introduce the facts on Fukushima's revival through documentary films－" reported by OGATA, Makoto, Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
- December 2017: "Commemorating a Quarter Century of Dispatches of the JSDF's PKO Units: Challenges and Possibilities in the Post South Sudan" written by Takayuki Shoji, Lecturer, Nihon University
- November 2017: "19th CCP National Congress" written by Mr. Bonji Ohara, Senior Research Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Fondation
- October 2017: "What is Japan's Role in the Indo-China border conflict?" written by Dr. NGAO,Satoru, Research Fellow, Institute for Future Engineering
- July 2017: "Overview of the Current Situation in Taiwan-" the Naturally Independent Generation" will affect the Taiwan"s politics-" written by Makoto Ogata MGE.(Ret.)
- June 2017: "Japan-U.S. Economic Dialogue" written by Mr.Takaaki Asano
- March 2017: "The Japan-Philippines Strategic Dialogue" written by Mr. Hideshi Tokuchi
- February, 2017: Current topic "The Importance of Japan's Security Role Under Trump" written by Dr. Satoru Nagao is posted on the SSDP website.
- December, 2016: Current topic "Widening Security Task: Will SDF do the Job?" written by Mr. Ippeita Nishida is posted on the SSDP website.
- October 2022, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 3)" - Xi Jinping's China - Politics, Economy, Society and Diplomacy - was published.
- Jun 2022, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 2)" -The Russia-Ukraine War and Its Global Impact- was published.
- March 2022, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 1)"-What is Economic Security?- was published.
- December 2021, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 3 no 4)"-Korean Peninsula Situation- was published.
- September 2021, A research journal "Security Studies vol03 no03" -Asia's Security II- (English edition)
- June 2021, A research journal "Security Studies vol03 no02" -Asia's Security I- (English edition)
- March 2021: Research journal "Security Studies (vol3 no1) "- US Foreign Policy in the Biden Administration / The 2020 US Presidential Election and American Democracy -(English edition)
- December 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no4) "- Normalize Japan-South Korea Relations trough Dialogues -(English edition)
- September 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no3) "-The Novel Coronavirus and Security-(English edition)
- July 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no2) - Middle East Situation and Japan's Security - " (English edition) was published
- May 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no1) - Cyber, Space, Environment and Security - " March 2020 (English edition)
- February 2020, "A research journal "Security Studies (vol1 no4) " (English edition)"
- September 2019: A research journal "Security Studies (vol1 no3) " (English edition)
- August 2019: Korea-Japan Joint Seminar: FUTURE CONSENSUS DIALOGUE
- April 2019: "Security Studies (vol1 no2) April 2019"
- March 2019: A research journal "Security Studies vol1 no01" just published
- February 2019: The Denuclearization of North Korea and the Takeshima Issue
- December 2018: Former Vice Defense Minister Masahiro Akiyama's Memoirs (An Ad)
- November 2018: Participation in the Future Consensus Forum held in Beijing
- September 2018: "2018 Indo-Pacific Security Dialogue" reported by Masahiro Akiyama
- 2017 December: "The Butterfly Project-A possibility of showing a solution to the North Korea problem-"
- October 2017: Campaign on the problems with North Korea
- August 2017: A New Containment Policy Strategy
- June 2017: Korean peninsla
- March 2017: President Duterte
- February, 2017: Kazakhstan
- November, 2016: Participated in Astana Club 2016 held in Kazakhstan on November 14- 16, 2016.