(Project of the Kajima Institute of International Peace)
The Shocks that shook the Transatlantic World and their Implication for Japan's Foreign Policy
Professor, Keio University
Senior Associate, SSDP
The EU referendum in the UK in June last year that opted Brexit and the US presidential victory by Donald Trump in November brought a tremendous shock around the world. The impact will be felt not only on the politics of the two countries but also on the world order.
We need to cautiously examine the nature of the shock and how it changes the world order. At the same time, we should recognize that international relations have structurally changed over the past decade: The Emergence of rising economies, the retreat of the US and European forces from military engagements overseas, and public opinion which is strongly affected by nationalism and populism.
The changing power balance undermines the liberal order that the US has long defended, and international cooperation and international institutions have been exposed to severer criticism.
1. What Happened to the Transatlantic World?
"Revolution" has an important meaning when we examine recent big changes in the international order. The Economist, "The World in 2017", published in 2016 reads as follows.
Yet this golden age is coming to an end. This time the first shots are being fired by the right rather than the left, by the Brexiteers in Britain and Donald Trump in America. But the similarities between the collapse of the liberal order in 1917 and today are stark.1
The year 2017 when Donald Trump was inaugurated as the US president coincided with the centenary anniversary of the Russian revolution. The Bolsheviks, a small group in the Russian Empire revolutionized Russia 100 year ago. Now it is the right, a minor group in contemporary society that is taking power by excluding "the Washington Establishment". It could be called a revolution.
Stephen Bannon, the closest aide to Trump has insisted the importance of revolution. He once declared proudly in 2013 the following.
I am a Leninist. Lenin wanted to destroy the state and that's my goal too. I want to bring everything crashing down and destroy all of today's establishment.2
Nigel Farage, the former leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) strongly supported Trump who wanted a revolution. Farage said early this year in Washington," Brexit and the Trump win are 'beginning of global revolution.'"3 In fact, Trump expected during the election campaign that the UK's revolution would come over to the US as "the Brexit plus".
Trump's inward stance (even in diplomacy) was criticized by the right in the Republican party. They are the neoconservatives represented by Robert Kagan, Senior Research Fellow, Brookings Institute. He said, "Think of two significant trend lines in the world today. One is the increasing ambition and activism of the two great revisionist powers, Russia and China. The other is the declining confidence, capacity, and will of the democratic world, and especially of the United States, to maintain the dominant position it has held in the international system since 1945."4
Calling for a revolution in the UK and the US could be described as a counterrevolution against the revolution lead by the neoliberalism that has developed since the 1980's. On the other hand Trump politics based on a counterrevolution against the globalization and the neoliberalism has begun to face severe criticism.
2. What kind of threats is Europe now facing?
Europe is now facing pressing threats other than challenges mentioned above. High Representative of the EU and Vice-President of the EC (HR/VP) Federica Mogherini said, "Our region (EU) is in flames, both to the East and South."5The threat from the East is an assertive Russia with a hybrid warfare it conducts on its borders with the EU, and the threat from the South is the Islamic extremism, military attacks by ISIS, and a huge immigrant flow from the South. It faces also instability in the Middle East and in North Africa.
A third threat the EU faces is an internal threat, the refugee problem, terrorism and negative impacts triggered by Brexit.6
The EU and NATO are now tested the values and missions as European countries now confront the critical threats. US president Trump undermines NATO as he doesn't make clear the US commitment to article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Trump was almost dealing a barter trade with EU, by giving the commitment provided the EU endeavored elimination of the US trade deficit. The Trump's speech at NATO was reported as follows.
When President Donald Trump addressed NATO leaders during his debut overseas trip little more than a week ago, he surprised and disappointed European allies who hoped—and expected—he would use his speech to explicitly reaffirm America's commitment to mutual defense of the alliance's members, a one-for-all, all-for-one provision that looks increasingly urgent as Eastern European members worry about the threat from a resurgent Russia on their borders.7
3. Whither NATO?
First, strengthening the collective defense against Russia is NATO's most important priority. In the summit meeting last year NATO's members agreed to a rotation for stationing of the battalion in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. They put higher priority on the article 5 mission of the collective defense than on the non-article 5 mission of the external military involvement.
NATO's allies, however, must increase their defense budgets to have an effective deterrence. Only 5 member countries have their defense budgets estimated at over 2 percentage of their GDP while the other 23 countries do not reach the 2% level. Tsuruoka, Michito, Associate Professor of Keio University said as follows.
The US is dissatisfied with NATO as the US burdens 70 percentage of the total budget and many of the member states limit their defense budgets at less than 2 percentage of their GDPs while the US keeps the level of 3.5 percentage.8
Not only President Trump but also Secretary of Defense James Mattis have made the same points. It was reported that Trump requested at the NATO summit meeting to delete the words, "strongly supports" for NATO treaty article 5 from the joint communique.
The North Atlantic alliance is therefore now in a state of anxiety. It was noted with great interest that Chancellor Merkel said after the G7 meeting, "The times in which we could completely depend on others are, to a certain extent, over"9 with Trump.
4. The Implications for Japan's Foreign Policy
Developments in Europe are pushing Japan to assume greater responsibility. First, Japan should play a role as an advocate for the liberal international order. A Journal, Foreign Affairs, asked an question to foreign policy experts, "Is the liberal order in peril?". In response, 11experts "strongly agree", 14 agree, 4 are "neutral", 3 "disagree", and none "strongly disagree".10
A prominent scholar, John Ikenberry referred to the future of the liberal order saying, "Much will rest on the shoulders of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, the only two leaders of consequence left standing who support it." 11
Japan should further make efforts toward self-help under this circumstance. Stewart M. Patrick, from the Council on Foreign Relations, focused on the importance of the return of "self-help".12 Japan should increase the self-defense budget and contribute to regional security.
The economic partnership agreement (EPA) and the strategic partnership agreement (SPA) between Japan and the EU have become important. If Japan and the EU can successfully conclude a free trade zone, this will become the biggest market in the world. The rules and practices of this market might become a global standard. The Paris Agreement from which the US withdrew will be supported by Japan and the EU. Japan has to promote world trade liberalization without the US after the US decided to withdraw from TPP.
This does not mean the creation of a world order without the US, but Japan and the EU will become much more responsible to support US leadership. When the US decides to strengthen relations with Japan and Europe the liberal order restores power and the international situation becomes stable. However, until then Japan should prepare to assume a much bigger responsibility than it ever has.
- February 2019: Dynamics of Indian Politics and the 2019 General Elections, written by Chiharu Takenaka, Professor of Rikkyo University
- February 2019: "Cooperative Strategy" to Realize "Competitive Strategy"--- The composite structure of Japan's "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" strategy (vision) ---, written by Matake Kamiya, Professor at The National Defense Academy of Japan
- January 2019:, A paper, "How will the US midterm elections results affect the Trump administration's foreign policy for 2019?" written by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- January 2019:, A paper, "The Present and Future of the International Trade Order" , written by Akihiko Tamura, Professor, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- December 2018: The US-China Competition and Japan, written by Ryo Sahashi, Professor at Kanagawa University
- December 2018: An Outlook for the US-China Trade War―What makes the two economically interdependent superpowers confront each other?―, written by Takashi Sekiyama, Associate professor at Toyo University
- September 2018: Proposal, "The Denuclearization of North Korea and the Restoration of Peace in the Korean Peninsula― Correct Perceptions and Eight Proposals on Japan's North Korea Diplomacy－" edited by the Society of Security and Diplomatic Policy Studies
- September 2018: "The Taiwan Policy of the Xi Jinping Administration in its Second Term: An Outlook on Cross-Strait Relations in the New Era" written by Yasuhiro Matsuda, Professor of the Tokyo University
- July 2018: "The EU States and Russia on North Korea Issues- Expansion of Influence through Diplomacy: Attempts and Limitations -" lectured by Yuichi Hosoya, Professor of Keio University
- "An Assessment of the US-North Korea Summit and an Outlook for the Future of the Korean Peninsula" lectured by Junya Nishino, Professor of Keio University
- "Korean Peninsula Issue and Japan's Future Security Policy" written by Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow of National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- July 2018: "US North Korea policy affected by personnel changes in the Trump administration" lectured by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation.
- "China-North Korea relationship under Xi Jinping" lectured by Shin Kawashima, Professor of the Tokyo University.
- "North Korean Denuclearization and Russia" lectured by Nobuo Shimotomai, Professor of the Hosei University.
- March 2018: "The Network Hegemony Theory for a Security Architecture in The Asia Pacific Region" lectured by Masahiro Akiyama, Chairman, the Society of Security and Diplomatic Policy Studies
- January 2018: "A Destabilized Middle East" lectured by Koichiro Tanaka, Professor, Keio University
- December 2017: "Problems in Sino-Japanese Relations, 1992-2042" lectured by Ezra F. Vogel, Professor of the Social Sciences Emeritus at Harvard University
- November 2017: "The Future of the Asia-Pacific Region" written by Yoriko Kawaguchi, Fellow, the Meiji Institute for Global Affairs, Former Minister Foreign Affairs
- October 2017: "A New Trend in India's Foreign Policy and Japan" Written by HIROSE,Takako, Professor, Senshu University
- August 2017: "The Shocks that shook the Transatlantic World and their Implication for Japan's Foreign Policy" written by HOSOYA, Yuichi, Professor, Keio University
- August 2017: "Does Economic Interdependence not Encourage Collaboration? ―Thinking Japan-China Relations from an Economic Perspective―" written by Takashi SEKIYAMA, Ph.D., Toyo University
- July 2017: Proposal article "The Trump Administration's Impact on the Cross-Strait Relations" written by Yasuhiro Matsuda, Ph.D.
- June 2017: Proposal article "The outlook for the relationship between two great powers and implications for Japanese diplomacy" written by Professor Shin Kawashima
- May 2017: (Emergency Proposal) Facing the Inconvenient Truth: Re-examining Policy for Peace and Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula (Chief author, Masao Okonogi)
- March 2017: "Economic Influences of the Trump Administration" written by Professor Motoshige Ito
- February, 2017: Proposal article "Trump's Foreign and Security Policy - Unpredictable President, Realistic Secretaries - " written by Mr. Tsuneo Watanabe is posted on the website of SSDP.
- December, 2016: Proposal article "Reconsidering North Korea Policy: How to Deal with a Nuclear Armed Divided States" written by Professor Masao Okonogi is posted on the website of SSDP.
- November 2018: "The Present State of the Japanese Economy and Policy Issues" lectured by Motoshige Itoh, Professor Emeritus at the University of Tokyo.
- November 2018: "Expanding Social Security Expenses and Fiscal Reforms" lectured by Kazumasa Oguro, Professor at Hosei University.
- September 2018: "Taiwan Identity and Cross-Strait Relations and Trump's Taiwan Policy and the Future of Taiwan-US Relations-Discussion at The Second Japan-Taiwan Strategic Dialogue (June 21, 2018, Taipei)-" written by OGATA, Makoto
- September 2018: "Japan-Taiwan Dialogue 2018 Minutes", 21st June 2018, Taipei, Taiwan.
- July 2018: Report on The Second Japan – Philippines Strategic Dialogue prepared by Ms. Vindu Mai Chotani, Ph.D. Student, Graduate School of Public Policy, Tokyo University.
- May 2018: "Civilian Control "at Crisis"? – Perhaps Not, for the Case of the Field Sit-reps from SDF's South Sudan Mission" reported by Ippeita Nishida, Research Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- January 2018: "Fukushima, Genki？Project－Young Taiwanese volunteers introduce the facts on Fukushima's revival through documentary films－" reported by OGATA, Makoto, Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
- December 2017: "Commemorating a Quarter Century of Dispatches of the JSDF's PKO Units: Challenges and Possibilities in the Post South Sudan" written by Takayuki Shoji, Lecturer, Nihon University
- November 2017: "19th CCP National Congress" written by Mr. Bonji Ohara, Senior Research Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Fondation
- October 2017: "What is Japan's Role in the Indo-China border conflict?" written by Dr. NGAO,Satoru, Research Fellow, Institute for Future Engineering
- July 2017: "Overview of the Current Situation in Taiwan-" the Naturally Independent Generation" will affect the Taiwan"s politics-" written by Makoto Ogata MGE.(Ret.)
- June 2017: "Japan-U.S. Economic Dialogue" written by Mr.Takaaki Asano
- March 2017: "The Japan-Philippines Strategic Dialogue" written by Mr. Hideshi Tokuchi
- February, 2017: Current topic "The Importance of Japan's Security Role Under Trump" written by Dr. Satoru Nagao is posted on the SSDP website.
- December, 2016: Current topic "Widening Security Task: Will SDF do the Job?" written by Mr. Ippeita Nishida is posted on the SSDP website.
- February 2019: The Denuclearization of North Korea and the Takeshima Issue
- December 2018: Former Vice Defense Minister Masahiro Akiyama's Memoirs (An Ad)
- November 2018: Participation in the Future Consensus Forum held in Beijing
- September 2018: "2018 Indo-Pacific Security Dialogue" reported by Masahiro Akiyama
- 2017 December: "The Butterfly Project-A possibility of showing a solution to the North Korea problem-"
- October 2017: Campaign on the problems with North Korea
- August 2017: A New Containment Policy Strategy
- June 2017: Korean peninsla
- March 2017: President Duterte
- February, 2017: Kazakhstan
- November, 2016: Participated in Astana Club 2016 held in Kazakhstan on November 14- 16, 2016.