(Project of the Kajima Institute of International Peace)
The Present and Future of the International Trade Order
Professor, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
A future perspective of the international trade order should inevitably be based on current and future state assessments of the global political environment surrounding the international trade order. This paper begins with a discussion of the concept of "the collapse of an empire" featured in the May 2016 issue of the ASTEION magazine.
The year 2016 marked the hundredth anniversary of the conclusion of the Sykes-Picot Agreement by which the European powers decided the partition of the Ottoman Empire. This fact inspired the magazine to make a feature on the topic. The Sykes-Picot Agreement enabled the UK and France to divide part of the Middle East that corresponds to present Syria and Iraq into several zones under their direct control or influence. The borderline between British and French spheres of influence roughly coincides with the present national border between Iraq and Syria. The agreement basically defined the current national borders in the region. After the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, Turkey achieved its independence as a republic in 1923 in the wake of a war of independence. Meanwhile, in other areas of the Middle East including Iraq and Syria, secularist nationalist regimes established sovereign states for a while. Yet, with the withdrawal of the United States from the region there evolved a development described by Akifumi Ikeda as "the loosened unity of sovereign state and the foregrounding of identity politics" --- a development which is still in progress. Dictatorial powers dominating sovereign states that were established based "not on the creation of citizens but on the keeping from cleavages" (Akifumi Ikeda) lost their governing, when the United States withdrew from the region. Today, a variety of intermediary bodies, religious and tribal, are a sharply confronting one another in fierce contests.
Next let us cast a look at China. Takashi Okamoto in the same issue of the ASTEION magazine attempts to understand the current situation in China in the context of "the collapse of an empire." "The collapse of an empire" in the Chinese context was the downfall of the Qing Empire which Okamoto designates as "a multi-layered amalgamation of universalities." The Twenty-One Demands made by Japan were to China as the Sykes-Picot Agreement was to the Middle East, in the sense that the demands contributed to the "partition (guāfēn)" of the Chinese territories by the imperialist powers. Unlike the Ottoman Empire that failed to found a nation-state, China's nation-state building process is still underway based on a certain "Han Chinese nationalism." The Qing Empire realized a multi-layered amalgamation of the Han race universality, the Tibetan Buddhist society and the Mongolian universality through the intermediary of the ruling Manchurians. In and after the 18th century, the Han Chinese engaged in trade and prominently expanded their social influence, thereby upsetting the balance among those different universalities. The Han race universality, according to Okamoto, served as a driving force to initiate the process of construction of a unified, homogeneous national sovereign state. In the process, the Han Chinese were instrumental in importing innumerable Western concepts from Japan --- where the people had studied the concepts from original sources in the late Qing era --- through an expedient method of translating Japanese into Chinese.
The concept of "the collapse of an empire" may be effective in conducting a historical analysis of the current affairs of the United States under the Trump administration, which pursues a new foreign policy under the flag of "America first-ism." "America first-ism" signifies that the United States will "forsake its status as an empire." Emmanuel Todd defines that an "empire" is a political organization that can pursue universalism, or an entity in the international politics that homogeneously understands the interests of itself and others. If so, "America first-ism" may be construed as a declaration of farewell to such a homogeneous understanding of US citizens and other peoples. Todd argues that traditional US ideologies used to make it possible to understand homogeneously the human race and nations. Their "universalistic" character defined the peculiarity of the United States as an empire. Since, however, US ideologies are nowadays losing their universalistic character, the United States, therefore, is losing its status as an empire.
Among the "America first-isms" policies in many fields, a representative example realizing something beyond mere rhetoric is US trade policies. In the first place, trade policies are fitting to be cited as a typical example of public goods provided by an "empire." Countries that held hegemony since the dawn of modern times --- the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States --- repeated state interventions in trade and showed a strong inclination to mercantilism until they finally achieved hegemony. As soon as, however, they came to understand that the open free trade order constructed mainly with their allies would constitute the source of their own power, along with military power, they began making efforts to maintain and strengthen the trade order. After completion of the Second World War, the United States established free trade regimes with GATT as an axis, and advanced mutual economic development by conducting free trade with its allies, abiding by rules. The United States promoted free trade to win the Cold War and to secure its supremacy.
Consequently, if we evaluate the recent US trade policies under the Trump administration in light of the above historical analyses, the United States seems to have already "abandoned the status as an empire or supremacy." The Trump administration's trade policies are drawing media attention, such as the US withdrawal from the TPP established under US initiative; the imposition of high tariffs on steel and aluminum imports for national security reasons (Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act), and retaliatory measures against the alleged China's infringement of US intellectual property rights (Section 301 of the Trade Act). The present author's chief concern from a systemic point of view is that the United States is now blocking the selection of members for the WTO Appellate Body. Vacancies that have occurred in the body due to the stagnant selection process have thrown the WTO's judicial function into a serious malfunction. There is speculation that US behavior at this time is an expression of its strong dissatisfaction with strict judgments of the Appellate Body on US trade remedies. In any case, the US response in question is undoubtedly an action capable of throwing the international trade system into a malfunction, and of fatally compromising the international community's trust in US leadership. Incidentally, the present author does not believe that all of the US assertions are unreasonable. US assertions against China's infringement of property rights, demands for compulsory technology transfer, and subsidy measures to safeguard its state-run enterprises are winning sympathy from the majority of developed countries. China has not notified its subsidy measures to the WTO in defiance of its obligation of notification. Lack of sufficient information from China is preventing developed countries from seeking solutions in accordance with, among others, the WTO Dispute Settlement Procedures.
It may still be arguable whether recent US foreign policies and trade policies based on "America first-ism" should be discussed on the same level with the long-term phenomenon of "the collapse of an empire." Nonetheless, those policies admittedly reflect the rise of identity politics in the United States. The July-August issues of the Foreign Affairs magazine featured the topic "Which world are we living in?" The feature articles are structured in a manner of comparing the three worldviews of Realist World, Liberal World, and Tribal World. In addition to the three are presented Marxist World, Tech World, and Warming World --- six worldviews in all. Articles on Realist World and Liberal World discuss the current situation of international politics from the standpoint of realism and neo-liberalism --- the contemporary trends of international relations theory ---, whereas articles on Tribal World analyze the current situations around the world from the viewpoint of the emerging identity politics. Moreover, the same articles touch upon the political trends of white people in the United States, along with the sectarian politics in the Middle East. The current US domestic politics is considered to feature the emergence of identity politics.
Walter Russell Meade, a prominent US historian, describes the dynamism behind Donald Trump's victory of the Presidential election as the "Jacksonian Revolt," in which the white people recapture their country from elites and minorities. He argues that the Trump diplomacy's peculiarities cannot be fully explained by economic factors like income disparities or social factors such as reducing whites' average life expectancy and the spread of opioid abuse. According to Mead, there are four archetypes in US diplomatic thought --- the Wilsonians (focusing on the legal and ethical aspects of the international order), the Hamiltonians (focusing on the interests of US corporations), the Jeffersonians (adhering to US democracy), and the Jacksonians (a populist archetype strongly reflecting the culture of the common people). The current rise of the Jacksonians that had remained on the fringe for a long time means that of identity politics. It is a phenomenon that can be thought of as "white nationalism." It is anything but a transient phenomenon under the Trump administration alone. Therefore, the United States will, in the foreseeable future, continue to be unwilling to provide the international community with its own public goods in the capacity of an "empire" as in the past. Toshihiro Nakayama, in the May 2018 issue of the "ASTEION" magazine, states that the Trump diplomacy does not come under any of the above four categories, but rather seems to be akin to that of the "Davisonians," which is a diplomatic school named after Jefferson Davis, President of the Confederate States, who tried to cling to the old regime in contest against the industrial culture of the North encroaching into the South.
As mentioned above, in many parts of the international community, the stabilizing function of the universalism (public goods) provided by an empire or a hegemon is now becoming increasingly precarious, while actors with nationalistic, religious or other ideological, emotional backbones appear side by side. There are signs that the international order will become unstable. Incidentally, the present author uses the terms "hegemony" and "empire" synonymously in this paper. There are various assertions about the differences between these two concepts. "Hegemony is distinct from Empire because a hegemonic power rules by influencing other states rather than by controlling them or their territory." (Oxford Bibliographies) On the other hand, Niall Ferguson argues, "With a broader and more sophisticated definition of empire, it seems possible to dispense altogether with the term hegemony." This is because the difference between the two concepts is no other than their mode of domination, indirect or direct. The present author uses the two terms following Ferguson's opinion.
While signs of the prevalence of identity politics can be observed throughout the world, there are regions and actors that strengthen their universalistic inclination. A typical example is the EU. While promoting its intra-regional integration in a universalistic direction, the EU has been contributing to the international community by actively engaging in the construction of systems based on universal values. As for the EU's intra-regional integration, its "three pillars" or frameworks --- European Community (EC), Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), Police and Judicial Co-operation in Criminal Matters (PJCCM) --- stipulated in the Maastricht Treaty (effective in 1993) which decided to launch the EU and to introduce the integrated currency Euro, were abolished by the Lisbon Treaty (effective in 2009). Instead, Article 207, Paragraph 1 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU) stipulates that the economic integration agenda --- the formation of a unified market in the region and a common trade policy against the outside world --- that had been contained in the "silo" (EC) should be implemented not only from the viewpoint of free tradeism but as part of common diplomatic and security policies that pursue EU values and concerns, including sustainability, poverty eradication, and human rights. As a result, for example, the G7 Elmau Summit in 2015 chaired by Germany propounded the concept of "responsible supply chain" against the backdrop of the growing global public opinion on supply chains and human rights such as the "UN Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights." The "Sustainable Development Goals" (SDGS), an important document on basic guidelines in international public policies, is considered to have been formulated by European initiatives.
The European-led universal international system, as a new international relations theory, has an affinity with the "global governance theory" that appeared in and after the 1990s. It is a trend to theorize on the solution of global problems through cross-border collaboration among non-sovereign state actors like NGOs. Furthermore, as a recent extension of the global governance theory, some jurists like B. Kingsbury and K. Davis who have keen interest in the development of developing countries are apt to focus their attention on "the impact of indicators on global governance." According to them, the process of setting "indicators" such as rating agencies' credit ratings and international NGO's corruption awareness index is a political process and "indicators" themselves are a variation of law. These experts are attempting to formulate a theory on factors necessary to enable "indicators" to acquire influence, legitimacy, and authority. Actually, disciplines and indicators created by non-governmental organizations, such as FTSE4 Good Index, ISO 26000, and Corruption Perception Index, exert strong authority chiefly in sustainability-related agenda. According to the annual questionnaire surveys conducted by the World Economic Forum targeting leading economic figures, risk factors recognized by international public opinion are shifting chronologically from economic risks to social risks, and the areas where international disciplines are needed most today are social issues including sustainability.
In formulating a function of stabilizing the international community, the essential question is how to establish a legitimate "authority" and how to solve global issues dependent on the authority, that is, how to create a system to materialize an appropriate allocation of resources and interest adjustments? Significant in this connection are the creation of an adjustment function to realize justice when political units confront each other over their interests, and the establishment of an "authority" on which the adjustment function depends. Thus, the construction of a "norm" system, which is a system of interest adjustments depending on some "authority," is the most essential solution for stabilizing the international community. (There are various forms of norm or criterion. Highly normative criteria are to assume a form of international law, whereas less normative criteria a form of soft law.) International systems supported by law should also be sustained by some authority based on hegemonic power; but in the case that the hegemon does not have the intention to support international systems, that is, the situation where an "authority vacuum" occurs, some "authority" should be brought in from somewhere else. The source of authority need not be a hegemon nor even a sovereign state. It might be possible for us who form the international community to create such an authority. In the world of the Middle Ages where a sovereign state was yet to be born to become a basic unit of the international community, the greatest source of authority was the Roman Church. On the other hand, secular authority was distributed among feudal lords. Merchants also acquired some authority to enact and enforce Lex mercatoria prescribing their own wide-area business.
At present, there are symptoms that the United States is likely to abandon the international trade order that the country itself developed to maintain and strengthen its hegemony. A vacuum is about to come into being. The appearance of a new "authority" to fill in the "vacuum" is being awaited. In the international community, as mentioned earlier, two directions are perceived --- "the foregrounding of identity politics" and "the rise of sustainability as a norm." In reality, these seemingly opposite directions are identical in that actors' motives are not materialistic interests but ideational interests. In order to stabilize the international political system, including international commerce, by filling in "the authority vacuum," it will be necessary to establish, in addition to the conventional disciplines of "Geo-Politics" and "Geo-Economics," "Geo-Normative" that aims at creating a norm system founded on some "authority" by adopting a non-traditional idea that actors' motives are associated with ideational interests. Japan should understand and embody universal values to play a leading role in this process.
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- January 2019:, A paper, "How will the US midterm elections results affect the Trump administration's foreign policy for 2019?" written by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- January 2019:, A paper, "The Present and Future of the International Trade Order" , written by Akihiko Tamura, Professor, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- December 2018: The US-China Competition and Japan, written by Ryo Sahashi, Professor at Kanagawa University
- December 2018: An Outlook for the US-China Trade War―What makes the two economically interdependent superpowers confront each other?―, written by Takashi Sekiyama, Associate professor at Toyo University
- September 2018: Proposal, "The Denuclearization of North Korea and the Restoration of Peace in the Korean Peninsula― Correct Perceptions and Eight Proposals on Japan's North Korea Diplomacy－" edited by the Society of Security and Diplomatic Policy Studies
- September 2018: "The Taiwan Policy of the Xi Jinping Administration in its Second Term: An Outlook on Cross-Strait Relations in the New Era" written by Yasuhiro Matsuda, Professor of the Tokyo University
- July 2018: "The EU States and Russia on North Korea Issues- Expansion of Influence through Diplomacy: Attempts and Limitations -" lectured by Yuichi Hosoya, Professor of Keio University
- "An Assessment of the US-North Korea Summit and an Outlook for the Future of the Korean Peninsula" lectured by Junya Nishino, Professor of Keio University
- "Korean Peninsula Issue and Japan's Future Security Policy" written by Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow of National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- July 2018: "US North Korea policy affected by personnel changes in the Trump administration" lectured by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation.
- "China-North Korea relationship under Xi Jinping" lectured by Shin Kawashima, Professor of the Tokyo University.
- "North Korean Denuclearization and Russia" lectured by Nobuo Shimotomai, Professor of the Hosei University.
- March 2018: "The Network Hegemony Theory for a Security Architecture in The Asia Pacific Region" lectured by Masahiro Akiyama, Chairman, the Society of Security and Diplomatic Policy Studies
- January 2018: "A Destabilized Middle East" lectured by Koichiro Tanaka, Professor, Keio University
- December 2017: "Problems in Sino-Japanese Relations, 1992-2042" lectured by Ezra F. Vogel, Professor of the Social Sciences Emeritus at Harvard University
- November 2017: "The Future of the Asia-Pacific Region" written by Yoriko Kawaguchi, Fellow, the Meiji Institute for Global Affairs, Former Minister Foreign Affairs
- October 2017: "A New Trend in India's Foreign Policy and Japan" Written by HIROSE,Takako, Professor, Senshu University
- August 2017: "The Shocks that shook the Transatlantic World and their Implication for Japan's Foreign Policy" written by HOSOYA, Yuichi, Professor, Keio University
- August 2017: "Does Economic Interdependence not Encourage Collaboration? ―Thinking Japan-China Relations from an Economic Perspective―" written by Takashi SEKIYAMA, Ph.D., Toyo University
- July 2017: Proposal article "The Trump Administration's Impact on the Cross-Strait Relations" written by Yasuhiro Matsuda, Ph.D.
- June 2017: Proposal article "The outlook for the relationship between two great powers and implications for Japanese diplomacy" written by Professor Shin Kawashima
- May 2017: (Emergency Proposal) Facing the Inconvenient Truth: Re-examining Policy for Peace and Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula (Chief author, Masao Okonogi)
- March 2017: "Economic Influences of the Trump Administration" written by Professor Motoshige Ito
- February, 2017: Proposal article "Trump's Foreign and Security Policy - Unpredictable President, Realistic Secretaries - " written by Mr. Tsuneo Watanabe is posted on the website of SSDP.
- December, 2016: Proposal article "Reconsidering North Korea Policy: How to Deal with a Nuclear Armed Divided States" written by Professor Masao Okonogi is posted on the website of SSDP.
- Taiwan-Japan Round Table on August 24th, at Capital Tokyu Hotel
- Japan-Korea Political Leaders Dialogue was held on February 10th,2023 at International House of Japan
- March 2022, A remembrance seminar "Remembering Professor Ezra Vogel" held on January 17, 2022
- March 2021, Japan-ROK Parliamentary Dialogue -Japan-ROK Cooperation in the Era of US-China Competition- held on March 11, 2021
- December 2020: The report of the Japan-ROK Future Dialogue held on November 21 to discuss "Japan-ROK Cooperation in the Post-Covid-19 Era
- October 2020: "Responses to COVID-19 and Agendas for the Post-COVID-19 Era", A Brief Overview of the Japan-Korea Experts Dialogue held on July 29,30, 2020
- October 2020: "The China-Taiwan Confrontation over Corona Response and Taiwan's Security" written by Makoto Ogata, Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
- May 2020: "Rivalries in the Middle East in New Security Dynamics", Written by Sayed Ghoneim, Major General (retired) of the Egyptian Armed Forces, Chairman, Institute for Global Security & Defence Affairs
- March 2020: The Japan-South Korea Relationship in a Cul-de-Sac--- Where is an Exit ? Masao Okonogi Professor Emeritus, Keio Universit
- December 2019: The Hong Kong Upheaval and the Future of Cross-Straits Relations－The 2019 Japan-Taiwan Strategic Dialogue Report OGATA, Makoto Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
- August 2019: Report; 2019 FUTURE CONSENSUS DIALOGUE --Sustainable Prosperity and Future of Korea-U.S.-Japan Cooperation-- By Future Consensus Institute (Yeosijae)
- June 2019: Report on India – Japan Security Dialogue 2019 by Ms. Vindu Mai Chotani, Ph.D Student, The University of Tokyo
June 2019: Four papers on Japan-India Cooperation submitted to India-Japan Security Dialogue 2019
Japan's Rationale for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision
Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, The Sasakawa Peace Foundation
The Significance and Possibilities of India-Japan Cooperation in the Concept of the Indo-Pacific
Toru ITO Associate Professor, National Defense Academy of Japan
Japan-India Defense Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific Context - Operationalizing the Security Aspect of the Indo-Pacific Vision –
Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)
India-US-Japan Defense Cooperation: What's next?
Dr. Satoru Nagao, Hudson Institute
- Japan's Rationale for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision
- November 2018: "The Present State of the Japanese Economy and Policy Issues" lectured by Motoshige Itoh, Professor Emeritus at the University of Tokyo.
- November 2018: "Expanding Social Security Expenses and Fiscal Reforms" lectured by Kazumasa Oguro, Professor at Hosei University.
- September 2018: "Taiwan Identity and Cross-Strait Relations and Trump's Taiwan Policy and the Future of Taiwan-US Relations-Discussion at The Second Japan-Taiwan Strategic Dialogue (June 21, 2018, Taipei)-" written by OGATA, Makoto
- September 2018: "Japan-Taiwan Dialogue 2018 Minutes", 21st June 2018, Taipei, Taiwan.
- July 2018: Report on The Second Japan – Philippines Strategic Dialogue prepared by Ms. Vindu Mai Chotani, Ph.D. Student, Graduate School of Public Policy, Tokyo University.
- May 2018: "Civilian Control "at Crisis"? – Perhaps Not, for the Case of the Field Sit-reps from SDF's South Sudan Mission" reported by Ippeita Nishida, Research Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- January 2018: "Fukushima, Genki？Project－Young Taiwanese volunteers introduce the facts on Fukushima's revival through documentary films－" reported by OGATA, Makoto, Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
- December 2017: "Commemorating a Quarter Century of Dispatches of the JSDF's PKO Units: Challenges and Possibilities in the Post South Sudan" written by Takayuki Shoji, Lecturer, Nihon University
- November 2017: "19th CCP National Congress" written by Mr. Bonji Ohara, Senior Research Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Fondation
- October 2017: "What is Japan's Role in the Indo-China border conflict?" written by Dr. NGAO,Satoru, Research Fellow, Institute for Future Engineering
- July 2017: "Overview of the Current Situation in Taiwan-" the Naturally Independent Generation" will affect the Taiwan"s politics-" written by Makoto Ogata MGE.(Ret.)
- June 2017: "Japan-U.S. Economic Dialogue" written by Mr.Takaaki Asano
- March 2017: "The Japan-Philippines Strategic Dialogue" written by Mr. Hideshi Tokuchi
- February, 2017: Current topic "The Importance of Japan's Security Role Under Trump" written by Dr. Satoru Nagao is posted on the SSDP website.
- December, 2016: Current topic "Widening Security Task: Will SDF do the Job?" written by Mr. Ippeita Nishida is posted on the SSDP website.
- June 2023,Research journal "Security Studies vol5 no2" (Nuclear Crisis Scenarios Facing Japan and the Outlook of Nuclear Deterrence and Arms Control and Disarmament) in English edition was published.
- March 2023,Research journal "Security Studies vol5 no1" (What Will Happen to European Security?―Facing the War in Ukraine) in English edition was published.
- January 2023, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 4)" - Defending Our Country – Defense Policy in a "New Cold War Era - was published.
- October 2022, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 3)" - Xi Jinping's China - Politics, Economy, Society and Diplomacy - was published.
- Jun 2022, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 2)" -The Russia-Ukraine War and Its Global Impact- was published.
- March 2022, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 1)"-What is Economic Security?- was published.
- December 2021, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 3 no 4)"-Korean Peninsula Situation- was published.
- September 2021, A research journal "Security Studies vol03 no03" -Asia's Security II- (English edition)
- June 2021, A research journal "Security Studies vol03 no02" -Asia's Security I- (English edition)
- March 2021: Research journal "Security Studies (vol3 no1) "- US Foreign Policy in the Biden Administration / The 2020 US Presidential Election and American Democracy -(English edition)
- December 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no4) "- Normalize Japan-South Korea Relations trough Dialogues -(English edition)
- September 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no3) "-The Novel Coronavirus and Security-(English edition)
- July 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no2) - Middle East Situation and Japan's Security - " (English edition) was published
- May 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no1) - Cyber, Space, Environment and Security - " March 2020 (English edition)
- February 2020, "A research journal "Security Studies (vol1 no4) " (English edition)"
- September 2019: A research journal "Security Studies (vol1 no3) " (English edition)
- August 2019: Korea-Japan Joint Seminar: FUTURE CONSENSUS DIALOGUE
- April 2019: "Security Studies (vol1 no2) April 2019"
- March 2019: A research journal "Security Studies vol1 no01" just published
- February 2019: The Denuclearization of North Korea and the Takeshima Issue
- December 2018: Former Vice Defense Minister Masahiro Akiyama's Memoirs (An Ad)
- November 2018: Participation in the Future Consensus Forum held in Beijing
- September 2018: "2018 Indo-Pacific Security Dialogue" reported by Masahiro Akiyama
- 2017 December: "The Butterfly Project-A possibility of showing a solution to the North Korea problem-"
- October 2017: Campaign on the problems with North Korea
- August 2017: A New Containment Policy Strategy
- June 2017: Korean peninsla
- March 2017: President Duterte
- February, 2017: Kazakhstan
- November, 2016: Participated in Astana Club 2016 held in Kazakhstan on November 14- 16, 2016.