Foreign and Security Policies of the Second Trump Administration

proposal

Yuki Tatsumi

In the US presidential election on November 5, 2024, former President Donald Trump won the Electoral College and public votes by an overwhelming margin over incumbent Vice-President Kamala Harris. Trump will return to power after a hiatus of four years. In addition, the outcomes of the federal congressional elections held on the same day also confirmed that the Republican Party would become the majority party in both the House and the Senate. In Washington, many consider that on the domestic policy front, the second Trump administration will prioritize necessary legislation to fulfill the election pledges, such as the forcible deportation of illegal immigrants and permanent income tax cuts, during the two-year lead-up to the 2026 midterm elections.

Meanwhile, there were scarce opportunities to discuss the foreign and security policies of the second Trump administration, as they were not the focus of the election campaign. That said, given statements made by Trump during the election campaign: "If I'm president, I will have that war settled in one day, 24 hours,"¹ "I will impose a 60% tariff on goods from China," and "I will end the war in the Middle East immediately," many already point out that Trump may come up with a policy line different from that of the Biden administration regarding these policy issues. Also, given the approach toward alliances that Trump adopted during his first administration, it is very unclear how the United States will get along with the international society.

President-elect Trump has nearly completed the nomination of the cabinet members for his second administration; the appointment of senior members serving him in the White House is also underway, which does not need the Senate's approval. This essay will analyze the messages that President-elect Trump and his aides communicated regarding foreign and security policies during the presidential election campaign. It will discuss, at the same time, the direction of the foreign and security policies of the second Trump administration to be inaugurated in January 2025 by looking at nominees for relevant cabinet posts and other high-ranking government posts.

Stressed "Peace through Strength" and a Notable Tough Stance against China

The July/August 2024 issue of Foreign Affairs magazine, released during the presidential election campaign features contributions from Ben Rhodes (Democrat) and Robert O'Brien (Republican), who played major roles in shaping the foreign and security policies of the Democratic and Republican parties. Their essays discuss the foreign policy directions of the Biden and Trump administrations, respectively. In particular, the article contributed by O'Brien, who assumed the office of National Security Advisor in the first Trump administration for about two years (2019-2021) and served around President Trump, is interesting as it discusses the foreign policy priorities that Trump has advocated throughout the recent presidential campaign, suggesting an outline of the general direction of the foreign and security policies of the second Trump administration.

In his article "Return of Peace through Strength," O'Brien makes the following points:

Under Trump, US adversaries did not exploit Americans' preference for peace.
Nowhere is a Trumpian restoration of peace through strength more urgent than in the contest with China.
Regarding the Middle East, a maximum pressure campaign should be reinstated.
Trump's approach to the Ukraine-Russia conflict would be to seek a negotiated settlement to guarantee the security of Ukraine while continuing to provide lethal aid to Ukraine.

What is noteworthy about O'Brien essay is that there is much mention of US policy toward China. It states decidedly that "The Chinese Communist Party seeks to expand its power and security by supplanting the United States as the global leader in technological development and innovation in critical areas such as electric vehicles, solar power, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing," and that "Washington should seek to decouple its economy from China's." While stating that "Washington should keep open lines of communication with Beijing," the essay also argues that "the United States should focus its Pacific diplomacy on allies such as Australia, Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea, traditional partners such as Singapore, and emerging ones such as Indonesia and Vietnam." Regarding US defense policy, the essay states that the time has come to invite Taiwan to join RIMPAC. It also recommends that the Department of Defense considers deploying the entire Marine Corps to the Indo-Pacific, relieving it of missions in the Middle East and North Africa, and that the navy moves one more aircraft carrier to the Indo-Pacific.² The claim of "a 60 percent tariff on Chinese goods" is repeated in the essay.

The America First Policy Institute (AFPI), which was launched in 2021 by senior officials of the first Trump administration and other Republican-affiliated groups supporting Trump, highlights on its website three regions as vital policy areas on the foreign policy and security front: (1) Europe, (2) the Middle East, and (3) Asia. It is to be noted that "(3) Asia" effectively signifies China. Almost all of the fact sheets and essays posted on the AFPI website feature warnings about the Chinese Communist Party's acquisition of land across the United States, criticism of China's surveillance of its citizens, etc.³

Among contributors regarding US security policy, retired Army Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg boasts a strong presence. He served under the first Trump administration as National Security Advisor to then-Vice President Pence and Executive Secretary for the National Security Council. Reportedly, Kellogg, a member of the AFPI, was in constant contact with Trump during the presidential campaign, including the primaries. Immediately after the election, many considered him the most promising candidate for National Security Advisor.

Kellogg's articles on the AFPI website and the online edition of The National Interest magazine are chiefly concerned with the situations in the Middle East and Europe―the confusion accompanying the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and criticism of the Biden administration's response to the Russia-Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict, to name just a few.

Regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, in an article titled "What Donald Trump's Ukraine Strategy Could Look Like," contributed to the online edition of the conservative magazine National Interest on December 20, 2023, Kellogg criticizes the Biden administration's approach, stating that:

Biden's misjudgment of Putin's intentions led to Russia's invasion of Ukraine;
Biden's failure to provide bold military support to Ukraine immediately after the Russian invasion led to the prolongation of the conflict, and
The Biden administration's approach of providing "a cautious IV-drip of arms" only meaninglessly prolonged the "proxy war" with Russia and encouraged Russia to strengthen its ties with China, Iran, and North Korea.

He claims an immediate ceasefire, followed by peace negotiations to ensure Ukraine remains a democratic nation. To deter Russia, he suggests expediting Ukraine's EU accession process to establish its status as a member of the democratic community internationally.⁴

Insights from the Nomination of Cabinet Members and Senior Officials for the Second Trump Administration

The Trump campaign made the above claims throughout the pre-election and the election period. After winning the presidential election on November 5, 2024, it swiftly touched off the nomination of cabinet members and other senior officials. As of this writing (December 4), all cabinet members have been nominated only to wait for the Senate confirmation after the administration takes office in January 2025. In addition, the Trump transition team is also steadily moving forward with the nomination of senior officials to serve at the White House, who are not subject to congressional approval. The transition team has announced the following lineup of designees related to foreign and security policies (Table 1).

Table 1. Nominated Cabinet Members and Senior Officials Related to Foreign and Security Policies (As of December 4, 2024)
Office	Designee	Date Announced	Note
Ambassador to the United Nations	Elise Stefanik	11/11/2024	Formerly a moderate Republican congressman. Pro-Israel.
National Security Advisor	Michael Waltz	11/12/2024	Former member of the House of Representative. Tough on China.
US Ambassador to Israel	Mike Huckabee	11/12/2024	Christian Right (Evangelical). Pro-Israel.
Director of the Central Intelligence Agency	John Ratcliffe	11/12/2024	Former member of the House of Representative. Deputy Director of the CIA in the first Trump administration.
Special Envoy to the Middle East	Steve Witkoff	11/12/2024	Jewish American. Pro-Israel.
Secretary of State	Marco Rubio	11/13/2024	First Latino Secretary of State. Hardliner against China.
Secretary of Defense	Pete Hegseth	11/13/2024	Former Fox News host, currently questioned about his qualifications as Secretary of Defense, due to allegations of sexual assault that occurred in 2017. Unclear whether he will be approved by Congress.
Director of National Intelligence	Tulsi Gabbard	11/13/2024	Former Demo congresswoman. Turned to support Trump. Her qualifications are questioned, as she has had little contact with the intelligence community.
Secretary of Commerce	Howard Lutnick	11/20/2024	Pro-China tariff. Co-chair of the Second Trump Transition Team.
US Ambassador to NATO	Matthew Whitaker	11/20/2024	Deputy Attorney General during the first Trump administration.
Principal Deputy National Security Advisor	Alex N. Wong	11/22/2024	Served in the first Trump administration as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs and Deputy Special Representative for North Korea. A senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and vice president of the Global Taiwan Institute, a pro-Taiwan think tank.
Secretary of the Treasury	Scott Bessent	11/22/2024	Hedge fund investor and one of the major donors to the Trump campaign during the 2024 presidential election.
Secretary of the Navy	John Phelan	11/26/2024	Investor. His qualifications are questioned due to no military experience.
Special Envoy to Ukraine	Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg (ret.)	11/27/2024	National Security Advisor to Vice President in the first Trump Administration. Ex-US Army Special Forces officer.
United States Trade Representative	Jamieson Greer	11/28/2024	Under the first Trump administration, served as Chief of Staff to the US Trade Representative Lighthizer. Ex-chief of military justice of US Air Force. Worked as a law clerk for the European Court of Justice.
Secretary of the Army	Daniel Driscoll	12/4/2024	A former Army veteran and a lawyer. Served on the Senate Veterans' Affairs Committee while in law school.

Looking at nominees related to foreign and security policies as of this writing, we can note an overall trend:

Nomination of those who served in the first Trump administration.
Nominations other than (1) were based more on the designees' connections to President-elect Trump and their contributions to the presidential campaign rather than their experience. This point was emphasized by the co-chairs of the transition team. This is believed to be the reason why former US Trade Representative Lighthizer and Senator Hagerty were not nominated for key cabinet positions.
Nominations associated with the situations in the Middle East and Ukraine were made from the perspective of contributing to fulfilling the election pledges, thereby achieving diplomatic results appealing to ordinary voters with the midterm elections in view.
Nominations related to China policy allowed anti-China hardliners and pro-Taiwan lawmakers to assume key positions.

Ahead of nominating Cabinet posts related to foreign and security issues, such as Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense, on the same day as the nomination of National Security Advisor, the pro-Israel former Arkansas Governor Huckabee was nominated the US Ambassador to Israel and Steve Witkoff were appointed Special Envoy to the Middle East. Just before Thanksgiving Day, retired Army Lt. Gen. Kellogg, who published the above-mentioned essay on the incoming Trump administration's Ukraine strategy, was appointed Special Envoy to Ukraine. These suggest that following the inauguration of the Trump administration in January 2025, the immediate foreign policy priorities will be the Middle East and Ukraine and that the new administration will highly likely aim to achieve its election pledges―a swift end to warfare and a solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict through peace negotiations―, and also that Trump will put these two issues under his direct control.

Meanwhile, comparing nominations/appointments related to foreign affairs and those related to domestic affairs allows a different interpretation to consider the priorities of the second Trump administration as a whole (Table 2).

Table 2. Nominated Cabinet Members Related to Domestic Affairs and Other Senior Officials (As of December 4, 2024)
Office	Designee	Date Announced	Note
White House Chief of Staff	Susie Wiles	11/7/2024	Co-chair of Trump's 2024 presidential campaign
The Border Czar	Tom Homan	11/10/2024	Former Acting director of the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement; Anti-illegal immigration hardliners
Secretary of Homeland Security	Kristi Noem	11/12/2024	Blamed for killing an undisciplined puppy.
Homeland Security Advisor; Deputy Chief of Staff	Stephen Miller	11/11/2004	Trump aide since the 2016 presidential election.
Department of Government Efficiency	Elon Musk; Vivek Ramaswamy	11/12/2024
Secretary of Health and Human Services	Robert F Kennedy Jr.	11/14/2024	Initially ran as a "third candidate." Afterward declared his support for Trump.
Secretary of Energy	Chris Wright	11/16/2024	CEO of Liberty Energy.
Secretary of Education	Linda McMahon	11/19/2024	Administrator of the Small Business Administration under the first Trump administration. Co-chair of the Second Trump Transition Team.
Secretary of Labor	Lori Chavez-Deremer	11/22/2024	Rep. congresswoman from Oregon. Unusually for a Republican, supported by labor unions.
Attorney General	Pam Bondi	11/22/2024	Former Florida Attorney General. Nominated after the initial nominee, former Congressman Matt Gaetz, declined nomination.
Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation	Kash Patel		Indian-American. A former prosecutor. A conspiracy theorist.

Nominations for the positions highlighted in bold in Table 2 were announced before those concerning foreign and security policies. These positions are related to Trump's election pledges: (1) border issues and illegal immigration measures, (2) a major reform of the federal government and budget cuts. In particular, the appointment of the White House border advisor in charge of (1) preceded that of the National Security Advisor by two days, rarely seen in the past.

In sum, the timing of the nomination of cabinet members and other senior officials corresponds to the priority of Trump's election pledges:

Border issues (forcible mass deportation of illegal immigrants)
Huge reductions in the federal workforce
A swift end to the Russia-Ukraine war (Trump claimed he could end it "within 24 hours of taking office.")
Ceasefire of the Israel-Hamas conflict
Imposing a uniform 60% tariff on all Chinese imports. Removal of MFN status for China.

With the midterm elections scheduled for 2026 in view, the incoming administration may deem it necessary to produce policy results by early 2026 that are easy to visualize and convince voters. To this end, in the first two years after taking office until the 2026 midterm elections, the administration will likely aim to achieve easy-to-understand results regarding the Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East situation, such as a ceasefire or the release of all hostages captured by Hamas; otherwise, it will likely prioritize domestic issues unless a new conflict or another crisis occurs.

Conclusion

The above is an attempt to examine the priorities of the second Trump administration from the viewpoint of the "timing of important nominations and appointments." What could it mean for US allies in the Indo-Pacific region, including Japan, that the foreign and security priorities of the new administration will, at least for the time being, focus on the Russia-Ukraine situation and Middle Eastern issues?

Apart from the order of priority, all of the nominated cabinet members and other officials responsible for foreign policy and security, except for Secretary of Defense nominee Hegseth and Secretary of the Navy nominee Phelan, are "conservatives admissible to China hardliners." As the possibility of Hegseth's nomination passing the Senate confirmation is decreasing daily, the likelihood is that he may decline the nomination, and someone else will be nominated instead. In this context, names like Waltz, who has already been appointed National Security Advisor to the President, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis are surfacing as candidates to replace Hegseth; they are alike in being China hardliners and in emphasizing alliance relations. This would be good news for the Indo-Pacific region. The first Trump administration shifted to a China policy defining China as a "strategic competitor" rather than a "partner that could become a responsible great power." The Biden administration took over the policy direction. Its China policy, therefore, is likely to be one of the few policy issues that will continue from the Biden administration to the incoming Trump administration. The only uncertain factor is whether or not the second Trump administration will try to resolve the North Korea issue. Given that the first administration attempted to break the then status quo through direct dialogue with Kim Jong-un and failed, the incoming administration will, by many accounts, first focus on addressing the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict and will not lightly pick up the North Korea issues. The appointment of Alex N. Wong, who served as Deputy Assistant Secretary for North Korea in the first Trump administration, to Principal Deputy National Security Advisor suggests that this issue may be put under the direct control of the White House.

Many countries, including Japan, are concerned about policies the incoming administration will introduce related to economic and trade issues. Lutnick, nominated for Secretary of Commerce, has a significant influence within the Trump camp as the co-chair of the transition team. However, his reputation is not good in the business world, with some even saying, "No one has anything good to say about him. He will soon make a slip of the tongue and be ousted by Trump." In contrast, Bessent, nominated for Secretary of the Treasury, has a good reputation in the business circle as a "sensible" and "gentlemanly" person. He is said to have proposed to Trump an economic policy similar to the "three arrows" approach adopted by Abenomics. Bessent is known as a Japanophile. It will matter which of them―Lutnick or Bessent―will take the lead in trade and economic policy in the second Trump administration.

(Senior Fellow at the Stimson Center)

proposal

July 2021, "Thailand's Security Policies and Threat Perceptions" written by Saya Kiba, Associate Professor, Komatsu University, Faculty of Intercultural Communication.

July 2021, "Myanmar's Security Perceptions and the February 1 Coup d'Etat" written by Yoshihiro Nakanishi, Associate Professor, Kyoto University.

July 2021, "Australia's Security Perceptions and the "Asia Threat"" written byTomohiko Satake, Senior Fellow, Defense Policy Division, Policy Studies Department, NIDS .

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