Infectious Disease Crisis Control in Japan
- Recommendations on an Exit Strategy -
Professor, Hosei University
1. Serious Evaporation of Sales and Financial Limitations
The spread of the new coronavirus infection has seriously affected our society. For example, according to the Cabinet Office's quarterly GDP preliminary report for the period January-March 2020 (the first preliminary figures), the real GDP growth rate for the period was minus 3.4% per year (compared to the previous quarter). However, the average growth rate estimate by private-sector economists for the period April-June 2020 was more than minus 20% per year (compared to the previous quarter). The present author also estimates it is highly probable that the 2020 GDP will see the record drop in the post-war period.
Under Article 32, Paragraph 1 of the Act on Special Measures for Pandemic Influenza (Act No. 31 of 2012), the Japanese government declared a state of emergency in Tokyo and the other six prefectures on April 7, 2020. The state of emergency was extended to the entire nation on April 16. The hotel and restaurant industry and tourism sectors were the first to be hit by citizens' self-restraint from going out and the voluntary suspension of business. Customers restrained themselves from eating out or staying at inns and hotels. As a result, the "evaporation of sales "occurred. Some companies experienced a sales decrease of as much as 90% compared to the same month from the previous year. According to the Fourth Survey on COVID-19 by Tokyo Shoko Research, Lt., 84% of 10,905 companies registered sales decrease in April 2020, with their sales in April last year taken as 100%. The median value of sales of all companies was 80% of sales from last year regardless of their business sizes --- small, medium, or large. There is a possibility that their sales decrease after May will accelerate. If the sales of these businesses are predicted to decrease by 20% per day from the same day of the previous year due to the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic, by how much will sales decrease in total?
In this connection, the "Economic Census for Business Activity" published by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry is informative. According to the latest report (June 2018), the sales of all industries in 2015 were about 1,625 trillion yen. Since the nominal GDP in 2015 was about 531 trillion yen, the sales of all industries were about three times the 2015 GDP, and the average daily sales of all industries were about 4.5 trillion yen. From the sales of all industries, the sales of accommodations, eating and drinking services accounted for about 25 trillion yen; living-related and personal services and amusement services such as movies and theaters about 46 trillion yen; and wholesale and retail trades like department stores about 501 trillion yen. The sales of these industries accounted for about 35% of the sales of all industries, and their average daily sales were 1.6 trillion yen. Based on this data, the decrease of sales --- due to long-term self-restraint from going out and a voluntary suspension of business --- of accommodations, eating and drinking services, living-related and personal services and amusement services, and wholesale and retail trades is estimated at 0.32 trillion yen per day. Difficult as it is at this moment to accurately predict, the economic loss at this time is likely to reach 9.6 trillion yen per month. As the number of new infections has now decreased, the state of emergency has gradually been lifted in an increasing number of prefectures since May. Thus, the situation is changing, and sales may recover. It is undeniable, however, that COVID-19 infections may resurge due to a full resumption of social and economic activities, and that voluntary suspension of business will be requested again. If the voluntary suspension of business continues for three months, sales worth 28.8 trillion yen will disappear; if this amount of sales loss continues for several months, the financing of companies will be immensely affected.
The 2020 White Paper on Small and Medium Enterprises (approved by the Cabinet on April 20, 2020) points out to the possibility that financial difficulties of the accommodations, eating and drinking services will worsen in the next six months. According to the 2018 Surveys for the Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry (Ministry of Finance), small and medium enterprises with a capital of 10 to 50 million yen hold cash and deposits equivalent to only about three months of operating costs. Under such circumstances, the government formulated emergency economic measures and over 50 trillion yen of the 2020 general account supplementary budgets (the first package worth approximately 25 trillion yen and the second about 32 trillion yen). However, with the outstanding Japanese public debt exceeding 200% of GDP, it will be impossible for the public finance to cover economic losses that will occur in the future. Uniform self-restraint from going out and the voluntary suspension of business will have a great impact on our social and economic activities.
2. The Uncertainty of COVID-19 and Two Opposing Positions
The fight with the coronavirus disease is just a battle against time. Uncertainties regarding the characteristics and properties of the novel coronavirus result in many controversial questions: (1) the number of potentially infected people, (2) the real mortality rate, (3) the duration of antibody, (4) the BCG hypothesis and virulence by virus type (including innate immunity/cross-immunity and racial differences), and (5) the possibility of developing medical drugs like vaccines and curatives, and new therapeutic methods.
According to the statistics site "Worldometer's COVID-19 Data" (as of May 23, 2020), death tolls per million people in the world are: 797 in Belgium; 612 Spain; 539 Italy; 536 the United Kingdom; 433 France; 389 Sweden; 6 Japan; 5 South Korea, and 3 in China. There is a hypothesis that mortality rates are different between Caucasian and Asian races. Given, however, that the population of Wuhan (China), where the coronavirus infection first broke out, is about 11 million and the number of deaths 3,869 (April 18 CNN reportage), the death toll per million people in Wuhan is some 350, which is close to the figures in Sweden and France. The data on Wuhan seems to be inconsistent with the above hypothesis, although the present author lacks the expertise to judge its validity.
Among still other unanswerable questions are: (6) whether the spread of infection will occur again after the self-restraint of going out and the voluntary suspension of business have been gradually lifted; (7) whether the novel coronavirus will disappear spontaneously after a lapse of time, and (8) whether, in the end, it will be possible to contain the novel coronavirus. Needless to say, these are topics that demand professional expertise to answer. We should wait for the conclusions of researchers who specialize in infectious diseases and epidemiology. It will take some time to answer these controversial questions.
The spread of the novel coronavirus threatens human life in two ways: physical death from COVID-19 and economic death due to prolonged self-restraint of going out and voluntary suspension of business. These two issues are in a trade-off relationship. Enforced restrictions on people's movements will cause tremendous economic damage. If the restrictions are relaxed, the infection will spread and kill people. In the United States, for example, the novel coronavirus infection is spreading again in the states where the economy was reopened in haste (ex. Texas and Florida).
Then, is there not any lesson to be learned from history? What is informative in this respect is a paper on the 1918 Spanish Flu by US Federal Reserve economist Sergio Correia and others.
According to the paper's analysis, the Spanish Flu pandemic reduced manufacturing output by 18%. There are apparent differences between the cities that carried out earlier and longer-term non-pharmaceutical interventions (ex. curfew and social distancing) and those that failed to adopt comparable measures. The mortality rate (number of deaths in 1918 per 100,000 population) in the former was lower than in the latter. Moreover, post-pandemic employment growth (employment growth in the manufacturing industry from 1914 to 1919) tended to be higher in the former than in the latter.
However, problems caused by the novel coronavirus are not the same as those from the Spanish Flu. There are various debates overseas and in Japan over infection control measures against the new coronavirus. It may be premature to evaluate the effects of those measures at this moment. History alone will provide an assessment in hindsight.
Under these circumstances, Japan, like the United States, is being torn into two positions or into opposition camps --- a position that thinks more of life and another that thinks more of the economy. However, the enemy we should fight is the novel coronavirus. A philosophical quarrel over whether to "save life or economy" will never lead to a solution.
Unlike from the days of the Spanish Flu, we require a profound knowledge of viruses and various technologies. Although the spread of novel coronavirus infection is now temporarily diminishing, there is still a possibility that the infection will resurface, and a voluntary suspension of business will become necessary to prevent the collapse of the healthcare system. It is, therefore, at this moment that we should work on preparedness against the possible second and third waves of infection. The "exit" from COVID-19 crisis is not a quarrel over whether to "save life or economy," but a "strategy of protecting both life and economy" by use of technologies and thorough testing, thereby inducing people to resume their social life --- consumption, education, exercise, and leisure.
3. COVID-19 Exit Strategy
Professor Paul Romer (2018 Nobel laureate in economics) of the New York University, and doyen of the American Economic Association, proposed 20 million tests per day (Romer, 2020). Almost coincidentally, the Group of State Power Studies / the Society of Security and Diplomatic Policy Studies of the Kajima Institute of International Peace and a group of like-minded supporters also built a website "Urgent Recommendations: Toward a V-shaped Recovery after the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic" (referred to from here as "web recommendations"), and released a proposal on the "exit strategy" on May 7, 2020. A UK team of infectious disease scientists has recommended 10 million tests per day (Peto, et al. 2020), and the Rockefeller Foundation 30 million tests per week (Allen, et al. 2020a), while Harvard University's Edmond J. Safra Center for Ethics more than 5 million tests per day (Allen, et al. al. 2020b). The key is mass testing.
It is needless to say that the basic infectious disease control measures are "testing" and "isolation," and thorough testing and isolation are essential to prevent the spread of infection. With strong infectivity, the novel coronavirus features a long incubation period, and therefore there are many asymptomatic spreaders. Consequently, adequate testing is of primary importance to implement infection control. In Japan, the so-called cluster control has been the principal strategy, achieving substantial results. But the number of tests in Japan is much smaller than in other countries because the Japanese government has been carrying out tests mainly on persons who have COVID-19 symptoms and tracing those who had contact with the carriers. Tests in Tokyo have detected a large number of infections through routes other than those monitored by cluster tracing experts. Untraceable infections in the urban areas and intra-hospital infections have sharply increased. In this sense, the expansion of testing is crucially important.
Many companies seem to be already facing financial difficulties and coronavirus pandemic-related bankruptcy, due to self-restraint from going out and the voluntary suspension of business. Nonetheless, a majority of people are not infected with COVID-19. If so, why are we requested to refrain from going out or to voluntarily suspend business? The reason is that there is an "information asymmetry" regarding the presence and absence of infections. In many cases, we cannot judge whether we are infected with COVID-19. Consequently, we try to reduce contact with others by self-restraint of going out and the voluntary suspension of business.
However, when we fully reopen the economy, if we can inform one another whether or not we are infected with COVID-19 by the use of technologies, the situation will dramatically change. As long as we use "tests" in order to only judge the presence or absence of infection for infection control without combining infection control and the perspective of economics, we should be blamed for having a narrow view of the situation. Although it is essential to "isolate" those who test positive, it is equally important to formulate an "exit strategy" by incorporating the perspective of economic policy and to gradually allow those who test negative consecutively to resume free economic activities. We should improve the climate for the formulation of such an exit strategy.
The gist of the above-mentioned web recommendations is as follows: to achieve the compatibility of infection control and social and economic activities, we should establish a system at the latest in a half-year time to provide people with a regular update on the current infection status of COVID-19 (once every two weeks), and to enable those who test negative consecutively to resume going out or to work without concern. This is of primary importance for moving to the next stage.
The significance of an update on the current infection status regularly (once every two weeks) is two-fold --- the macro status of infection and the micro status of infection.
Tests as an infection control tool include not only PCR tests but also such tests with high accuracy as antigen tests and antibody tests. Antibody tests are useful to grasp the macro status of infection. At present, a certain number of antibody tests are being conducted in Japan, but there is something wrong with the number of samples, and the number of latent carriers is not exactly known. First of all, we should conduct mass antibody testing regularly to grasp the macro status of infection.
Regarding the micro status of infection, on the other hand, it is necessary to establish a system capable of implementing 10 million tests a day to keep the people regularly informed of the latest infection status once every two weeks. The tests include antigen tests, Loop-Mediated Isothermal Amplification, and saliva-based PCR test reagent.
In expanding testing, it is extremely important to implement both PCR tests for the detection of new infections (including antigen tests waiting for government approval) and antibody tests for confirmation of infections. Since PCR tests are not free from false-negative results, the spread of infection that PCR tests fail to detect may be detected by antibody tests. A yardstick for deciding whether or not to lift non-pharmaceutical interventions including self-restraint from going out and voluntary suspension of business is the reduction of effective reproduction number (R) that indicates how many people a single spreader infects to below 1. However, since mass testing is not available, the number of infected people is not known. The expansion of PCR testing and antigen testing is essential to monitor true R in real time. It will be possible to verify the selection of effective interventions and the effectiveness of interventions by estimating infection rates by the use of antibody test results.
Although the spread of COVID-19 is temporarily declining, COVID-19 will likely resurface, and the second and third waves of infection will occurr in the future. Therefore, it is necessary to aim at establishing a system of realizing PCR testing and antigen testing for all people once every one to two weeks, so that those who test negative consecutively can go out or resume work without worry. How to realize this matters. Not only PCR tests but also useful tests with high accuracy should be actively adopted.
However, since mass testing is not free from the problem of false-positives, the web recommendations state that the problem of false-positive/false-negative test results should be dealt with by multiple tests. For details of multiple testing, refer to a calculation sheet (https://bit.ly/2WSPeix) posted in the "Q&A" section of the web recommendations. For example, in a case where "infection rate is 1%, and specificity 99.9%," if two consecutive positive test results are judged "positive," 14 false-positives will be found in the population (13.95 million) of Tokyo. (The independence of testing must be guaranteed.) Under the same conditions, if three consecutive positive test results are judged "positive," the number of false-positives in the population of Tokyo will be 0, and the accuracy of positive test results will be 100%.
1) To deal with the problem of false-negatives, positive/negative judgment should be confirmed by two consecutive tests; if all the results are negative, the patient or testee is negative for coronavirus. (In this case, testees except those who test "negative" are judged "positive." They can request testing again.) 2) The asymmetry of information should be eliminated. To this end, we should create an environment that will facilitate mutual confirmation of test results (PCR tests and antigen tests). The issuance of PCR test negative certificates may be useful. (In certain countries and regions abroad, the presentation of a PCR test negative certificate has already become mandatory for business travelers. The Japanese government has also started to work on such certificates.)
The self-restraint from going out and the voluntary suspension of business should not be a policy demanding uniformity. We should change our mindset to protect both "life" and "economy" and urgently work out a strategy to regain economic normalcy taking into account group characteristics in terms of the risk of infection and age while containing the novel coronavirus. Papers and recommendations by Acemoglu, et al. (2020) share a similar perception.
Moving to the "the way out or exit" should presuppose that an infected person who needs treatment by hospitalization can be promptly hospitalized. We should constantly monitor whether or not a certain number of vacant hospital beds is available, and suspend, if necessary, the move to normalcy in a flexible manner as soon as the shortage of beds occurs.
4. Mass Testing and its Budget
When conceiving a system to carry out 10 million PCR tests (including antigen tests) per day in Japan, we should take into account the following: the drive-through method in South Korea; "PCR Centers" of the Tokyo Medical Association, and COVID-19 tests at dental clinics, laboratories of faculty of medicine, and pharmacies (New York). Also, we should learn from the operation of polling stations on the occasion of the Lower House Election. About 50 million voters visit polling stations across the country and engage in the act of voting that takes five minutes or so. There seems to be no polling station that is overcrowded with voters.
Therefore, it will be possible to carry out five-minute-long PCR tests on 10 million people per day around the country without much confusion. For example, in Wuhan, China, all inhabitants of each district of the city were subject to tests in 10 days in mid-May 2020. (Total cost was equivalent to some JPY 13.5 billion.) Out of about 9.9 million people, there was no case of symptomatic infection, while asymptomatic infections numbered 300. If all the asymptomatic infections are false-positives, PCR specificity is 99.9969% or more.
Candidate places for COVID-19 tests will include gymnasiums and public halls where we can install a polling station. To avoid infection in these places ventilation should be provided, and there should be enough space between people. Nonetheless, if too many people gather at specific points of time --- like at opening time ---, the risk of mass infection may grow significantly. Tests should be done in divided time slots.
One idea is to allocate time slots by age group (ex. parents with elementary school children, 20-24 age group, 65-70 age group, etc.) or by address. Since municipalities know the number of inhabitants by age and address, they can readily arrange the optimum allocation of time slots by age and address to avoid congestion. Also, the age and address of a person who comes to receive a test can be easily confirmed by checking identification cards such as a driving license and a health insurance card.
To carry out such large-scale testing nationwide, it is necessary to secure a considerable number of personnel and materials. Doctors and nurses alone are far from able to provide the necessary number of coronavirus testers. Therefore, as a special temporary measure, medically unqualified individuals who have undergone a certain level of training should be allowed to serve as coronavirus testers under the supervision of medical doctors. In this connection, we would like to propose to position the expansion of testing as a kind of public works, and preferentially employ as coronavirus testers those who have lost their jobs or income due to self-restraint from going out and the voluntary suspension of business , which will help to secure personnel necessary to expand testing.
To eliminate the risk of bottlenecks as effectively as possible that can hinder the acquisition of materials, we recommend that a "network for emergency measures for the novel coronavirus testing" be formed by related ministries, prefectural governments, and supportive organizations under the leadership of the office of the Prime Minister, and that a collective effort be made to procure materials, carry out testing, and collect and analyze test results. A budget is needed for the improvement of the testing system. Professor Paul Romer's proposal "Roadmap to Responsibly Reopen America" estimates the necessary costs of carrying out 20 million tests per day at 10 trillion yen. Meanwhile, our urgent recommendations estimate 1) the costs of developing, spreading the use of, and reducing the price of highly accurate test kits at 5-9 trillion yen (provisional), and (2) the improvement of the testing system --- including personnel costs and cost for capacity building of coronavirus testers) --- at 3 trillion yen (provisional).
Then French Prime Minister Philippe announced that France would ease restrictions on lockdowns after May 11, aiming to implement 700,000 COVID-19 tests per week. The United States set the goal of increasing the number of COVID-19 tests to 2 million per week by the end of May. Japan should start with 50,000 COVID-19 tests per day including trial experiments (ex. pilot tests in Tokyo), targeting specific areas and people with specific occupations. Japan should totally and gradually increase the number of daily coronavirus tests and improve its testing system, thereby also increasing the number of people who can engage in economic activities without restrictions.
At this moment, the effectiveness and duration of coronavirus immunity are still controversial. But if the immunity period is long, those who were infected with the novel coronavirus and then recovered (after a lapse of certain period of time) or those who tested positive for antibodies may dispense with the frequent renewal of a PCR test negative certificate. Moreover, if coronavirus vaccines become available earlier than expected, we should use them.
Besides new vaccines, the development of new "therapeutic methods" also matters. If we can develop an appropriate treatment based on effective existing drugs --- dose combination, the amount of drug and dosing frequency may vary with the patient's condition ---, and lower the COVID-19 mortality rate below that of ordinary influenza, we will be able to eliminate the trade-off between life and economy and restore normal economic activities.
However, if we adopt an incomplete exit strategy, we will not succeed in properly containing the novel coronavirus. In that case, the infection will break out again in the form of the second and third waves, and we will have to continue infection control efforts for more than one and a half years. If so, taking into consideration the research of US Federal Reserve economist Sergio Correia, we should adopt a strategy of carrying out exhaustive "testing" and "isolation" from an initial stage to realize a swift economic normalization. Total economic damage over time must be limited.
- Group of State Power Studies/Society of Security and Diplomatic Policy Studies in Kajima Institute of International Peace and a Group of Like-Minded Supporters (2020) "Urgent Recommendations: Toward a V-shaped Recovery after the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic ‘Coronavirus Testing for All' --- the First Step of the Next Phase" http://www.kazumasaoguro.com/covid-19/
- Acemoglu, D., Chernozhukov, V., Werning, I., and Whinston, M. (2020) "A multi-risk SIR model with optimally targeted lockdown," NBER Working Paper No. 27102. https://www.nber.org/papers/w27102
- Allen, D., et al. (2020a) "National Covid-19 Testing Action Plan Pragmatic steps to reopen our workplaces and our communities," Rockefeller Foundation https://bit.ly/2wWIxTC
- Allen, D., et al. (2020b) "Roadmap to Pandemic Resilience," Safra Center for Ethics, Harvard University https://ethics.harvard.edu/Covid-Roadmap
- Peto, J., et al.(2020) "Stopping the lockdown and ending the epidemic by universal weekly testing as the exit strategy" https://ephg-covid-19.org/
- Romer, P. (2020) "Roadmap to responsibly reopen America" https://roadmap.paulromer.net/
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- June 2021, "The South China Issues from the Perspective of the International Law Order",by Shigeki Sakamoto, Emeritus Professor, Kobe University
- May 2021, "Indonesian Views and Perceptions on National Security" by Nobuhiro Aizawa, Associate Professor, Kyushu University
- May, 2021, "The Philippine Foreign and Security Policy Perspective" written by Yusuke Takagi Associate Professor,National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
- May, 2021, "Vietnam's Security: Challenges and Responses" written by Tomotaka Shoji Head, Asia and Africa Division, Regional Studies Department, National Institute for Defense Studies
- March, 2021, "Can the Biden Administration Restore America as a Global Leader?" written by Matake Kamiya, Professor, the National Defense Academy of Japan.
- March, 2021, "The Biden Administration and Japan's Security Strategy" written by Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
- February,2021, "US Foreign and Security Policy Direction Viewed from the Biden Administration's Lineup" written by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- February,2021, "Trade Policies of the Biden Administration" written by Takaaki Asano, Senior Analyst, Sumitomo Corporation Global Research Co. Ltd.
- February,2021, "The Biden Administration's Policy toward Russia" written by Taisuke Abiru, Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- January,2021, "Will US Policy Toward China Change?" lectured by Ryo Sahashi, Associate Professor, the University of Tokyo
- January,2021, "How will China View the Biden Administration?" written by Bonji Ohara, Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- January,2021, "An Assessment of the 2020 US Presidential Election－American Democracy Now－" lectured by Fumiaki Kubo, Professor, the University of Tokyo
- January,2021, "Two Trumpian Mysteries－Why did Trump win over 70 million votes? Why is his outrageous behavior unchecked?－" lectured by Kazuhiro Maeshima, Professor, Sophia University
- September, 2020, "The Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic and Internationa Relationsl" by Matake Kamiya, Professor, National Defense Academy of Japan
- September, 2020, "The Policy Agenda for the Xi Jinping Administration- COVID-19 Countermeasures and China's International Relations -" by Shin Kawashima, Professor, The University of Tokyo
- "Control in the United States and International Relations" by Koji Murata, Professor, Doshisha University
- September, 2020, "The EU's Response to COVID-19 and International Relations" by Yuichi Hosoya, Professor, Keio University
- August, 2020, "The Corona Crisis Seen from a Macroeconomic Perspective" written by Motoshige Itoh, Professor Emeritus, The University of Tokyo
- August, 2020, "The Coronavirus Pandemic and Japan's Infectious Disease Control" written by Takashi Mihara, Senior Research Fellow, NLI Research Institute
- August, 2020, "Infectious Disease Crisis Control in Japan- Recommendations on an Exit Strategy -" written by Kazumasa Oguro, Professor, Hosei University
- August, 2020, "Security against Infectious Disease Threats --- Policy Responses Abroad" written by Takashi Sekiyama, Associate Professor, Kyoto University
- June 2020,"Transformation of the International Order in the Middle East--- Varying Degrees of "Stateness" and Three Directions of the New Order" written by Satoshi Ikeuchi, Professor, Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo
- June 2020,"Destabilization in the Middle East and its Impacts on Japan's Energy Security" written by Amane Kobayashi, Research Fellow, The Institute of Energy Economics
- May 2020: Urgent Recommendations "Toward a V-shaped Recovery after the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic "Coronavirus Testing for All" --- the First Step of the Next Phase"
- May 2020: "US Diplomacy toward Iran: Economic Sanctions as a Diplomatic Tool" Hiroki Sugita Columnist, Kyodo News
- "Russian Factors in the Middle East" Taisuke Abiru Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- "The SDF Dispatches to the Middle East --- History and Significance" Ippeita Nishida Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- March 2020, "Space and Security" Kazuto Suzuki Professor, Hokkaido University
- March 2020, "The US Security Space Policy --- With a Focus on the Establishment of Two Space Forces" Yasuhito Fukushima Chief Researcher, The National Institute for Defense Studies
- March 2020, "China's Recent Activities in Space and Cyberspace" Bonji Ohara Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- March 2020, "Environmental Security and Japan" Takashi Sekiyama Associate Professor, Kyoto University
- March 2020, "Changes in Global Environment and Security --- US Security Strategy" Hideshi Tokuchi Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)
- February 2020, "Cyberspace Security" Motohiro Tsuchiya Professor, Keio University
- February 2020, "Japan's Space and Cyberspace Policy" Yukinari Hirose Former President of the National Institute for Defense Studies
- December 2019, "The US-China Confrontation --- Where Will Hegemony Reside Next?" Akio Takahara Professor, the University of Tokyo
- December 2019, "Challenges Facing the Chinese Economy" Osamu Tanaka Chief Senior Researcher, Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO
- December 2019, "US Strategic Perception on China: Implications for US Allied Partners" Tsuneo Watanabe Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- November 2019, "The Xi Jinping Administration's View of the International Order– China's emphasis on United Nations diplomacy and liberal economic policies−" Shin Kawashima, Professor, the University of Tokyo
- November 2019, "The Future of China's Security Strategy" Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- November 2019, "China --- Its Confidence and Anxiety" Bonji Ohara, Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- August 2019: Several Perspectives on the Korean Peninsula Issue--- The Deteriorating Japan-South Korea Relationship and the Uncertain Denuclearization of North Korea --- By Masahiro Akiyama Chairman, the SSDP
- July 2019, "An Outlook on the Denuclearization of North Korea--- What is the Stance of North Korea?---", Junya Nishino, Professor, Keio University
- July 2019, "An Outlook on the Denuclearization of North Korea --- How will the US move?", Narushige Michishita, Vice President, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- July 2019, "Discussion on Denuclearization of North Korea", SSDP Discussion Meeting on May 8, 2019
- May 2019: "Current Status and Prospects of South Korea and Japan's Frictions over History: How to address the Judicial Problems", Masao Okonogi, Professor Emeritus, Keio University
- May 2019: "South Korea and Japan's Frictions over History" (Comments), Junya Nishino, Professor, Keio University
- May 2019: Japan and South Korea Relationships (Question & Answer)
- March 2019: "The Present State and Prospects of the Indian Economy and Economic Policies" written by Koji Kobayashi, Senior Economist Mizuho Research Institute Ltd.
- March 2019: "The "Modi diplomacy" in the History of Indian diplomacy--- Departure from or maintenance of the traditional diplomacy? ---" written by Toru Ito, The National Defense Academy of Japan
- February 2019: Dynamics of Indian Politics and the 2019 General Elections, written by Chiharu Takenaka, Professor of Rikkyo University
- February 2019: "Cooperative Strategy" to Realize "Competitive Strategy"--- The composite structure of Japan's "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" strategy (vision) ---, written by Matake Kamiya, Professor at The National Defense Academy of Japan
- January 2019:, A paper, "How will the US midterm elections results affect the Trump administration's foreign policy for 2019?" written by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- January 2019:, A paper, "The Present and Future of the International Trade Order" , written by Akihiko Tamura, Professor, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- December 2018: The US-China Competition and Japan, written by Ryo Sahashi, Professor at Kanagawa University
- December 2018: An Outlook for the US-China Trade War―What makes the two economically interdependent superpowers confront each other?―, written by Takashi Sekiyama, Associate professor at Toyo University
- September 2018: Proposal, "The Denuclearization of North Korea and the Restoration of Peace in the Korean Peninsula― Correct Perceptions and Eight Proposals on Japan's North Korea Diplomacy－" edited by the Society of Security and Diplomatic Policy Studies
- September 2018: "The Taiwan Policy of the Xi Jinping Administration in its Second Term: An Outlook on Cross-Strait Relations in the New Era" written by Yasuhiro Matsuda, Professor of the Tokyo University
- July 2018: "The EU States and Russia on North Korea Issues- Expansion of Influence through Diplomacy: Attempts and Limitations -" lectured by Yuichi Hosoya, Professor of Keio University
- "An Assessment of the US-North Korea Summit and an Outlook for the Future of the Korean Peninsula" lectured by Junya Nishino, Professor of Keio University
- "Korean Peninsula Issue and Japan's Future Security Policy" written by Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow of National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- July 2018: "US North Korea policy affected by personnel changes in the Trump administration" lectured by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation.
- "China-North Korea relationship under Xi Jinping" lectured by Shin Kawashima, Professor of the Tokyo University.
- "North Korean Denuclearization and Russia" lectured by Nobuo Shimotomai, Professor of the Hosei University.
- March 2018: "The Network Hegemony Theory for a Security Architecture in The Asia Pacific Region" lectured by Masahiro Akiyama, Chairman, the Society of Security and Diplomatic Policy Studies
- January 2018: "A Destabilized Middle East" lectured by Koichiro Tanaka, Professor, Keio University
- December 2017: "Problems in Sino-Japanese Relations, 1992-2042" lectured by Ezra F. Vogel, Professor of the Social Sciences Emeritus at Harvard University
- November 2017: "The Future of the Asia-Pacific Region" written by Yoriko Kawaguchi, Fellow, the Meiji Institute for Global Affairs, Former Minister Foreign Affairs
- October 2017: "A New Trend in India's Foreign Policy and Japan" Written by HIROSE,Takako, Professor, Senshu University
- August 2017: "The Shocks that shook the Transatlantic World and their Implication for Japan's Foreign Policy" written by HOSOYA, Yuichi, Professor, Keio University
- August 2017: "Does Economic Interdependence not Encourage Collaboration? ―Thinking Japan-China Relations from an Economic Perspective―" written by Takashi SEKIYAMA, Ph.D., Toyo University
- July 2017: Proposal article "The Trump Administration's Impact on the Cross-Strait Relations" written by Yasuhiro Matsuda, Ph.D.
- June 2017: Proposal article "The outlook for the relationship between two great powers and implications for Japanese diplomacy" written by Professor Shin Kawashima
- May 2017: (Emergency Proposal) Facing the Inconvenient Truth: Re-examining Policy for Peace and Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula (Chief author, Masao Okonogi)
- March 2017: "Economic Influences of the Trump Administration" written by Professor Motoshige Ito
- February, 2017: Proposal article "Trump's Foreign and Security Policy - Unpredictable President, Realistic Secretaries - " written by Mr. Tsuneo Watanabe is posted on the website of SSDP.
- December, 2016: Proposal article "Reconsidering North Korea Policy: How to Deal with a Nuclear Armed Divided States" written by Professor Masao Okonogi is posted on the website of SSDP.
- Taiwan-Japan Round Table on August 24th, at Capital Tokyu Hotel
- Japan-Korea Political Leaders Dialogue was held on February 10th,2023 at International House of Japan
- March 2022, A remembrance seminar "Remembering Professor Ezra Vogel" held on January 17, 2022
- March 2021, Japan-ROK Parliamentary Dialogue -Japan-ROK Cooperation in the Era of US-China Competition- held on March 11, 2021
- December 2020: The report of the Japan-ROK Future Dialogue held on November 21 to discuss "Japan-ROK Cooperation in the Post-Covid-19 Era
- October 2020: "Responses to COVID-19 and Agendas for the Post-COVID-19 Era", A Brief Overview of the Japan-Korea Experts Dialogue held on July 29,30, 2020
- October 2020: "The China-Taiwan Confrontation over Corona Response and Taiwan's Security" written by Makoto Ogata, Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
- May 2020: "Rivalries in the Middle East in New Security Dynamics", Written by Sayed Ghoneim, Major General (retired) of the Egyptian Armed Forces, Chairman, Institute for Global Security & Defence Affairs
- March 2020: The Japan-South Korea Relationship in a Cul-de-Sac--- Where is an Exit ? Masao Okonogi Professor Emeritus, Keio Universit
- December 2019: The Hong Kong Upheaval and the Future of Cross-Straits Relations－The 2019 Japan-Taiwan Strategic Dialogue Report OGATA, Makoto Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
- August 2019: Report; 2019 FUTURE CONSENSUS DIALOGUE --Sustainable Prosperity and Future of Korea-U.S.-Japan Cooperation-- By Future Consensus Institute (Yeosijae)
- June 2019: Report on India – Japan Security Dialogue 2019 by Ms. Vindu Mai Chotani, Ph.D Student, The University of Tokyo
June 2019: Four papers on Japan-India Cooperation submitted to India-Japan Security Dialogue 2019
Japan's Rationale for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision
Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, The Sasakawa Peace Foundation
The Significance and Possibilities of India-Japan Cooperation in the Concept of the Indo-Pacific
Toru ITO Associate Professor, National Defense Academy of Japan
Japan-India Defense Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific Context - Operationalizing the Security Aspect of the Indo-Pacific Vision –
Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)
India-US-Japan Defense Cooperation: What's next?
Dr. Satoru Nagao, Hudson Institute
- Japan's Rationale for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision
- November 2018: "The Present State of the Japanese Economy and Policy Issues" lectured by Motoshige Itoh, Professor Emeritus at the University of Tokyo.
- November 2018: "Expanding Social Security Expenses and Fiscal Reforms" lectured by Kazumasa Oguro, Professor at Hosei University.
- September 2018: "Taiwan Identity and Cross-Strait Relations and Trump's Taiwan Policy and the Future of Taiwan-US Relations-Discussion at The Second Japan-Taiwan Strategic Dialogue (June 21, 2018, Taipei)-" written by OGATA, Makoto
- September 2018: "Japan-Taiwan Dialogue 2018 Minutes", 21st June 2018, Taipei, Taiwan.
- July 2018: Report on The Second Japan – Philippines Strategic Dialogue prepared by Ms. Vindu Mai Chotani, Ph.D. Student, Graduate School of Public Policy, Tokyo University.
- May 2018: "Civilian Control "at Crisis"? – Perhaps Not, for the Case of the Field Sit-reps from SDF's South Sudan Mission" reported by Ippeita Nishida, Research Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- January 2018: "Fukushima, Genki？Project－Young Taiwanese volunteers introduce the facts on Fukushima's revival through documentary films－" reported by OGATA, Makoto, Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
- December 2017: "Commemorating a Quarter Century of Dispatches of the JSDF's PKO Units: Challenges and Possibilities in the Post South Sudan" written by Takayuki Shoji, Lecturer, Nihon University
- November 2017: "19th CCP National Congress" written by Mr. Bonji Ohara, Senior Research Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Fondation
- October 2017: "What is Japan's Role in the Indo-China border conflict?" written by Dr. NGAO,Satoru, Research Fellow, Institute for Future Engineering
- July 2017: "Overview of the Current Situation in Taiwan-" the Naturally Independent Generation" will affect the Taiwan"s politics-" written by Makoto Ogata MGE.(Ret.)
- June 2017: "Japan-U.S. Economic Dialogue" written by Mr.Takaaki Asano
- March 2017: "The Japan-Philippines Strategic Dialogue" written by Mr. Hideshi Tokuchi
- February, 2017: Current topic "The Importance of Japan's Security Role Under Trump" written by Dr. Satoru Nagao is posted on the SSDP website.
- December, 2016: Current topic "Widening Security Task: Will SDF do the Job?" written by Mr. Ippeita Nishida is posted on the SSDP website.
- June 2023,Research journal "Security Studies vol5 no2" (Nuclear Crisis Scenarios Facing Japan and the Outlook of Nuclear Deterrence and Arms Control and Disarmament) in English edition was published.
- March 2023,Research journal "Security Studies vol5 no1" (What Will Happen to European Security?―Facing the War in Ukraine) in English edition was published.
- January 2023, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 4)" - Defending Our Country – Defense Policy in a "New Cold War Era - was published.
- October 2022, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 3)" - Xi Jinping's China - Politics, Economy, Society and Diplomacy - was published.
- Jun 2022, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 2)" -The Russia-Ukraine War and Its Global Impact- was published.
- March 2022, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 1)"-What is Economic Security?- was published.
- December 2021, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 3 no 4)"-Korean Peninsula Situation- was published.
- September 2021, A research journal "Security Studies vol03 no03" -Asia's Security II- (English edition)
- June 2021, A research journal "Security Studies vol03 no02" -Asia's Security I- (English edition)
- March 2021: Research journal "Security Studies (vol3 no1) "- US Foreign Policy in the Biden Administration / The 2020 US Presidential Election and American Democracy -(English edition)
- December 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no4) "- Normalize Japan-South Korea Relations trough Dialogues -(English edition)
- September 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no3) "-The Novel Coronavirus and Security-(English edition)
- July 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no2) - Middle East Situation and Japan's Security - " (English edition) was published
- May 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no1) - Cyber, Space, Environment and Security - " March 2020 (English edition)
- February 2020, "A research journal "Security Studies (vol1 no4) " (English edition)"
- September 2019: A research journal "Security Studies (vol1 no3) " (English edition)
- August 2019: Korea-Japan Joint Seminar: FUTURE CONSENSUS DIALOGUE
- April 2019: "Security Studies (vol1 no2) April 2019"
- March 2019: A research journal "Security Studies vol1 no01" just published
- February 2019: The Denuclearization of North Korea and the Takeshima Issue
- December 2018: Former Vice Defense Minister Masahiro Akiyama's Memoirs (An Ad)
- November 2018: Participation in the Future Consensus Forum held in Beijing
- September 2018: "2018 Indo-Pacific Security Dialogue" reported by Masahiro Akiyama
- 2017 December: "The Butterfly Project-A possibility of showing a solution to the North Korea problem-"
- October 2017: Campaign on the problems with North Korea
- August 2017: A New Containment Policy Strategy
- June 2017: Korean peninsla
- March 2017: President Duterte
- February, 2017: Kazakhstan
- November, 2016: Participated in Astana Club 2016 held in Kazakhstan on November 14- 16, 2016.