Why War Occurs in Europe?
---The Structural Transformation of the European Security Order in the Post-Cold War Era ---
Yuichi Hosoya
Introduction
On February 24, 2022, war broke out on the European continent. To understand the structure of the war ignited by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the lead-up to it, it is important to look at the evolution of the European order over the 30 years since the end of the Cold War. 1
As a compelling reason for its military invasion of Ukraine, the Russian government has repeatedly emphasized the threat to Russia posed by NATO's eastward expansion and the problem of NATO's betrayal of its original "pledge" not to expand eastward and its subsequent persistent eastward enlargement since the end of the Cold War. Such claims indeed have a certain degree of influence in Japan, and no small number of critics accept the Russian government's propaganda that the root cause of this war lies not with Russia but with NATO, especially its leader, the United States. One reason for the acceptance of such Russian government propaganda can be accounted for by the fact that it is usually difficult in Japan to understand the entire picture of the evolution of the European security order since the end of the Cold War. Therefore, it is more important than ever to understand its overview.
On the other hand, since the current European security order is in flux and unstable, it is very likely that even if in due course a ceasefire agreement is reached between Russia and Ukraine, it will be necessary to restructure it. Such a new future European security order following a ceasefire will pose significant challenges for us --- What status will Russia and Ukraine occupy in it and what military involvement will the United States make, and to what extent? When considering the need to reorganize the post-war European security order, it will be helpful to review European history over the post-Cold War 30 years.
Let us now consider how the end of the Cold War, German reunification, and NATO's eastward expansion have affected and are related to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.
1. The End of the Cold War and German Unification: Three Visions of European Security Order, 1990-1994
The convulsions in Europe associated with the end of the Cold War, which began with the Eastern European Revolutions of 1989, followed by German unification and the collapse of the Soviet Union, have greatly disturbed the European order that had existed until then. 2 It was not necessarily apparent whether a peaceful and stable Europe would emerge after the violent actions or whether revolution and regime change would result in another war and chaos. 3 The reorganization of the European security order after the end of the Cold War, led by the United States and Britain, and the gradual shift of Russia's position to the periphery, are important in considering the origins of the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine. What does this signify?
After the end of the Cold War, there were differences of opinion among the major powers over what European order to rebuild and what security framework to introduce. In particular, the United States, Britain, Russia, and France had different visions of the post-Cold War European order. 4 The four major powers --- the United States, Britain, France, and the Soviet Union --- had a special responsibility for the postwar European order, marked prominently by the division of Germany. Meanwhile, each of these four powers had a different vision of the order. What vision did they then conceive?
First, the United States and Britain saw the continuation of US security involvement in post-Cold War Europe as essential and sought to position NATO as exclusively responsible for security in Europe. They regarded NATO not as a product of the East-West confrontation in the Cold War era but as a community to defend the values of democracy and liberalism and as the basis for international cooperation.
Second, as General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev (later the first President of the Soviet Union) had aspired to in his "Common European Home" initiative, Russia sought to dismantle both NATO and the Warsaw Pact Organization with the end of the Cold War and to create an inclusive pan-European framework such as the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe at the nucleus of the post-Cold War European security order. The CSCE was reorganized later to become the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).
Third, France regarded the 1945 "Yalta System" as being at the root of the division of the European continent by non-European powers such as the United States and Britain and considered it as its mission to establish a "Europe by Europeans," as President Charles de Gaulle once advocated. Therefore, France strove to place the France-led European Community (EC, later reorganized to become the European Union (EU)) at the center of the post-Cold War European order, thereby promoting European political integration and sharing a single security policy. Following De Gaullism, France also argued for the necessity of maintaining European security by European countries instead of having the post-Cold War security order dominated by the two extraterritorial powers, the United States and Russia. To this end, it was expected of the EU, established in 1993, to develop CFSP (Common Foreign and Security Policy) and ESDP (European Security and Defense Policy) and to foster ESDI (European Security and Defense Identity) as the foundation of those policies. The first 2003 European Security Strategy (ESS) expressed the expectation for developing a unique European strategic culture.
Thus, each of the four major powers --- the United States, Britain, Russia, and France --- had a different post-Cold War order vision in mind, and there was a certain amount of friction and tension between the American, British, and Russian concepts. On the other hand, Russia and France shared some understanding that European countries should play a central role in the post-Cold War European order.
Russia and France shared the position on the need to reduce the role of the United States in the post-Cold War European security order. This may be seen from subsequent developments: the Minsk II reached in February 2015 was discussed mainly by Russia, France, and Germany; in the process leading up to the Ukraine war, President Putin referred, through frequent consultations with President Macron, to the restructuring of the European security order. It is quite natural to conclude in this connection that a shared understanding between the two leaders about the future European security order lay in the background of the frequent contact between them through telephone conferences and face-to-face meetings just before the outbreak of the Ukraine war.
However, as a result, the vision of a NATO-centered post-Cold War order as conceived by the United States and Britain constituted the core of the development of European international relations. The United States and Britain were particularly forward-looking about NATO's eastward expansion. Russia's deep-seated discontent with the post-Cold War European security order, led by the United States and Britain, cannot be overlooked in understanding the Ukraine war. This requires further examination.
2. The Controversy over NATO's Eastward Enlargement, 1991-1999
One of the most contentious issues regarding the post-Cold War European security order was the realization of German reunification and the question of NATO membership for a unified Germany. 5 From the fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9, 1989, to the reunification of Germany on October 3, 1990, US President George Bush and Secretary of State James Baker, who led the process of German reunification, worked closely with West German Chancellor Kohl. In parallel, they held discussions with French President Mitterrand, British Prime Minister Thatcher, and Soviet General Secretary Gorbachev (President since March 15, 1990), all of whom had resisted a desire for German unification, and endeavored to reach an agreement.
In a talk on February 9, 1990, Secretary of State Baker proposed to General Secretary Gorbachev that if a unified Germany were allowed to join NATO, NATO would "not" station its troops "an inch" beyond the "Iron Curtain" into the former Communist bloc countries. This is often quoted by Russia as the "pretext" for justifying its current invasion of Ukraine. There is a record in the US government archives of such a statement by Baker, and the Soviet government also remembered it.
However, this was just an oral proposal to assuage the Soviet government's anxiety about the evolution of a unified Germany into a military power; the talk itself, too, was designed to mitigate concerns about German unification. At that time, Eastern European countries were still in the midst of post-revolution turmoil and regime transitions; the possibility of NATO's eastern expansion was not yet discussed or even on the agenda. Such remarks by Secretary of State Baker were not recorded by the Soviet government as a formal diplomatic agreement or much less approved as a signed agreement between the two countries. In the first place, for an agreement to be binding on the actions of NATO, it must be accompanied by an agreement by the North Atlantic Council as a formal decision-making body or by all member states --- not by the United States alone. Consequently, Baker's proposal in question cannot be considered a binding "agreement" between Russia and NATO.
The overriding challenge for NATO in the 1990s was to work out a framework for cooperation with the former communist bloc countries. 6 The former communist bloc countries, including Russia, needed economic support from NATO countries to advance regime transitions in the post-Cold War era. At that time, they were not antagonistic but remarkably cooperative due to the necessity to seek such economic cooperation from NATO countries. At the NATO summit in London in July 1990, the member state leaders discussed the post-Cold War security order in Europe and agreed to maintain the NATO-centered order led by the United States and Britain. In July 1991, they established the NATO Cooperation Council (NACC) with the former communist bloc countries in Eastern Europe. In 1994, the NACC reorganized itself with a new name: the Partnership for Peace. Russia joined it.
The atmosphere dominant in Europe in those days was optimistic about the future of international cooperation. In 1997, the three Eastern European countries of Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary joined NATO; at the same time, the NATO-Russia Joint Permanent Council was established, which allowed Russia to participate to some extent in NATO decision-making. In a sense, NATO's eastward expansion proceeded while developing cooperation frameworks between NATO and Russia. In other words, NATO provided reassurances to Russia, in parallel with its eastward enlargement.
In the meantime, from the 1990s to the 2000s, the OSCE played a cardinal role in European security. For example, at the 1994 Budapest CSCE Summit, an agreement was reached to denuclearize Ukraine and other former Soviet republics; the "Budapest Memorandum" was signed by the signatory countries with the premise that they would respect Ukraine's borders and territorial integrity. Japan also provided economic and technical assistance to that end. Likewise, in 1994, it was agreed that Ukraine should relinquish its nuclear weapons and that the Russian government should preserve Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity as a precondition for denuclearization. Therefore, the current Russian invasion of Ukraine is a violation of the 1975 Helsinki Declaration, which agreed to respect the territory and borders in Europe, and the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances. In other words, the current aggression is contrary to what the Russian government had agreed to in the past. Given the above acts of violations in addition to an offense against the UN Charter's norm of the peaceful settlement of disputes, it is almost impossible to justify Russia's military attack against Ukraine.
3. From the War on Terror to the Annexation of Crimea, 2001-2014
Two major turning points in European security in the modern era were the Kosovo war in April 1999 and the Iraq war in March 2003. The use of military force by the United States without the support of a UN Security Council resolution shook the foundation of cooperation between NATO and Russia that had endured in the 1990s. Russia showed a cooperative attitude toward the "war on terror," in the belief that it could obtain the understanding of the international community by defining as "war on terror" the suppression by military force of dissident forces in Russia, designating them as "terrorists." Such a "war on terror" justified the Russian government for conducting military strikes in, among other areas, Chechnya, diverting the attention of the United States and other Western countries from the threats of Russia and China to international terrorism. Meanwhile, the US government believed that cooperation from the Russian government was essential to advance the "war on terror" and to pass a UN Security Council resolution authorizing the use of force against terror.
At the Bucharest NATO summit in 2008, President Bush strongly recommended the accession of Ukraine and Georgia to NATO. France and Germany, however, opposed the move because it would exert pressure on Russia and cause anxiety. The NATO summit failed to reach an agreement. A repeated criticism in hindsight is that France and Germany embraced, at that time, excessive optimism about cooperation with Russia. Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel left a justification against such criticism. 7
In the Russian government, pent-up discontent accumulated against NATO's expansion to some republics that had made up the Soviet Union; Russia looked upon the 2014 Maidan Revolution in Ukraine as a "conspiracy" by the US government to effect regime change. In this light, the six years that elapsed between the 2008 Bucharest NATO summit, when the question of Ukraine's NATO membership was discussed, and the year 2014, when the Maidan Revolution took place and Russia enforced the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula, turned out to be a vital turning point. During these years, the Russia-NATO relations worsened, and their mutual distrust became apparent.
4. The Fixation of US-Russia Confrontation --- Toward an Inter-regime Competition between Liberal Democracy and Authoritarianism, 2014-2022
Following Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, NATO strengthened its collective defense and launched economic sanctions against Russia; it became increasingly inclined to regard the actions of Russia as threats. NATO set a goal for each member to appropriate 2.0% of its GDP to defense spending and urged the Trump administration to strengthen US involvement to defend Europe.
The United States gradually moved toward solidifying cooperation among liberal democratic countries against the authoritarian regimes of China and Russia. The US National Security Strategy of December 2017 and Vice President Mike Pence's speech on China on October 4, 2018 were ideological reflections of this move.
From 2021 through February 2022, the Russia- and France-led moves to restructure the European security order were frequently observed. The withdrawal of US troops from Kabul in August 2021 was seen as representing Biden's America retreating from the world stage, while the US emphasis on the Indo-Pacific strategy was construed to signal a diminishing American presence in Europe. Against the backdrop of receding US influence, Germany's dependence on natural resources provided by Russia, and a certain degree of trust with French President Macron, President Putin may have thought it possible to resolve the conflict in eastern Ukraine by hardball measures.
Conclusion
Since the end of the Cold War, the European security order has evolved around the core initiative that the United States and Britain proposed to promote eastward expansion with NATO at the nucleus. The Russian initiative, which called for granting greater authority to the OSCE, and the French initiative, which wanted the EU to assume a more autonomous security role, also assumed some complementary roles.
However, since the 2000s, the OSCE has gradually become dysfunctional against the backdrop of the confrontation between the United States and Russia; the limits of the EU role have also become apparent as EU member states did not secure sufficient defense spending, and Britain left the EU (Brexit). US security involvement in Europe continued, while the EU's original "strategic autonomy" failed to develop as the French government anticipated. The initiative of NATO-centered European security order, led by the United States and Britain, is being solidified, which will lead to the increasing trust and expectations toward NATO of the Central and Eastern European and the Nordic countries. This trend is symbolized by the moves by Finland and Sweden following the Russian invasion of Ukraine to apply for NATO membership, abandoning their longstanding policy of neutrality.
In recent years, more emphasis has been placed on strengthening the role of NATO; US troops have been stationed in the Baltic States and Eastern European countries on a rotational basis to dispel concerns about a military invasion by Russia. In 2017, the NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence (NATO-CCDCOE) was established in Tallinn, the capital of Estonia, to deal with cyber-attacks from Russia and other countries; Japan is providing some cooperation. The Russian annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 gave rise to more security concerns in the neighboring countries, such as the Baltic states and Poland, which had been invaded and annexed by Russia. The 2014 annexation led to calls for greater US military involvement.
NATO's eastward expansion proceeded alongside the deepening of its cooperation with Russia, such as the NACC, the PfP, the NATO-Russia Joint Permanent Council, and the NATO-Russia Council. These cooperation frameworks testify to the Russian government's desire to collaborate with NATO countries. However, since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, NATO allies have shared more concerns about Russia's military threat and moved in the direction of strengthening collective defense in concurrence with the dysfunction of those cooperation frameworks. These developments may, in turn, have made President Putin anxious that the pressure from NATO was mounting. In this sense, Russia's hard-line military actions prompted NATO to strengthen its defense power as a response, with the consequence of expanding unrest in neighboring countries. The possibility of a cooperative security order between Russia and NATO had been explored by both sides, producing some results. However, those efforts came to nothing. We must reconfirm that it was Russia's unilateral military actions in 2014 and the succeeding change of borders that led to ensuing tensions and confrontations between the two sides and brought confusion and conflicts to the European security order.
(Professor, Keio University)
(Translation by Tsutomu Inuzuka)
- September, 2024, " The Russia-Ukraine War Viewed from War Termination Theory" by Yasuaki Chijiwa Chief Research Fellow, National Institute for Defense Studies.
- September, 2024, " How the Winter War Ended: A "Compromised Peace" Ends the Ukraine War?" by Tomoyuki Hanada Chief Research Fellow, National Institute for Defense Studies.
- September, 2024, " The End of the Soviet-Afghan War" by Takeshi Yuasa Professor, Sophia University Professor, Sophia University.
- July, 2024, " The Yoon Suk-yeol Administration and the ROK-Japan Relations" by CHOI, EunmiJ, The Asan Institute for Policy Studies, Research Fellow.
- July, 2024, " The 22nd National Assembly Election and South Korean Politics " by Hideki Okuzono, Professor, University of Shizuoka.
- July, 2024, " South Korea's Economic Security Policy and New Japan-ROK Economic Cooperation" by Satoru Okuda, Professor, Asia University.
- July, 2024, " Japan-ROK Cooperation: Not an Option but a Must" by Chey Tae-won, Chairman and CEO SK Inc.
- July, 2024, "Examining the Yoon Administration's Foreign Policy over the Past Two Years " by Junya Nishino, Professor, Keio University
- July, 2024, "North and South Korea Enter a New Phase of Competition" by Narushige Michishita, Executive Vice President and Professor at the GRIPS.
- July, 2024, "The Camp David Summit and U.S.-Japan-ROK Security Cooperation" by Yasuyo Sakata.
- April, 2024, "The Middle East Question and Japan" by Sinan Levent, Professor, Ankara University
- April, 2024, "The Israel-Hamas War and the Disruption of the Rules-Based International Order-Viewed from Theories of International Politics-" by Matake Kamiya, Professor, National Defense Academy of Japan
- March, 2024, " Regional Political Dynamics in the Middle East - Factors Changed and Remained unchanged after the October 7th Incident-" by Amane Kobayashi, Senior Researcher, the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan
- March, 2024, "The Ukraine War and Russia's Changing Middle East Diplomacy " by Taisuke Abiru, ,Senior Research Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- March, 2024, "Superpowers' Engagement with the Middle East and Their Intentions " (Edited lecture transcript) by Koichiro Tanaka, Professor, Keio University
- March, 2024, " Why the Israel-Hamas War Broke Out?" by Hiroyuki Suzuki, Professor, Associate Professor, The University of Tokyo
- March, 2024, " The Middle East Peace Process-Its Development and Future " by Chie Ezaki, Associate Professor, National Defense Academy of Japan
- March, 2024, "The Origin and Prospects of the Question of Palestine -Transformation of Israeli Politics and "10/7" as a Boiling Point- " by Aiko Nishikida, Professor, Keio University
- January, 2024, "Indonesia's Global South Diplomacy and Its Impact on Domestic Politics" by Jun Honna, Professor, Ritsumeikan University
- January, 2024, "Brazilian Foreign Policy and the Global South" by Hiroyuki Urabe, Professor, Dokkyo University
- January, 2024, "Africa's Population Explosion:How the "Last Frontier" Will Change the World" by Keiichi Shirato, Professor, Ritsumeikan University
- January, 2024, "The Impact of PM Modi's Global South Policy on the Military Strategy of India" by Satoru Nagao, Research Fellow, Hudson Institute
- December, 2023, "The Global South Concept and Its Historical Development and Outlook" by Ken Jimbo, Professor, Keio University
- December, 2023, "India's Global South Diplomacy and Japan" by Toru Ito, Professor, National Defense Academy
- December, 2023, "The Global South Viewed from China's Perspective" by Shin Kawashima, Professor, the University of Tokyo
- October, 2023, " Political and Social Divide in the United States and Challenges for Democracy" by Kazuhiro Maeshima, Professor, Sophia University
- October, 2023, " Has US Foreign Policy Doctrine Changed? " by Tsuneo Watanabe, senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- October, 2023, " America's Journey to Hegemony and Its Challenges" by Koji Murata, Professor, Doshisha University
- September, 2023, " A Medium- to Long-Term Outlook for the US Economy―Can America Win the Competition with China?―" by Tatsuhiko Yoshizaki, Chief Economist, Sojitz Research Institute, Ltd.
- September, 2023, " China's Strategy toward the U.S " by Toshiya Tsugami, Adjunct Researcher, the Japan Institute of International Affairs
- September, 2023, " The Deepening Security Dilemma in US-China Relations " by Ryo Sahashi, Associate Professor, the University of Tokyo
- July, 2023, "How Would North Korea and China Use Nuclear Weapons? -- Scenarios for Discussion" by Narushige Michishita, Professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- July, 2023, "Japan's Nuclear Strategy" by Nobukatsu Kanehara, Visiting Professor at Doshisha University
- July, 2023, "G7 Hiroshima Summit and Efforts for a Safer World Without Nuclear Weapons" by Nobushige Takamizawa, Visiting Professor at the University of Tokyo
- July, 2023, "Roundtable Discussion—Let's Talk Frankly About Nuclear Issues" by SSDP Discussion Members
- June, 2023, "Exploring the Possibility of Nuclear Attacks on Japan-Nuclear Simulations in the Era of "Three-Front Nuclear Threats" by Hiroyasu Akutsu, Professor, Heisei International University
- June, 2023, "China's Aim to Become a Nuclear Superpower" by Masafumi Iida, Head of China Division at the National Institute for Defense Studies
- June, 2023, "Challenges for Nuclear Arms Control in the Era of Strategic Competition Among Major Powers" by Nobumasa Akiyama, Professor, Hitotsubashi University
- June, 2023, "Mechanisms and Functions of Nuclear Deterrence-Development of US Nuclear Strategic Theory" by Masashi Murano, Research Fellow of Hudson Institute
- April 2023, "Changing NATO's "Achilles Heel"—Security in the Baltic Region" by Sanshiro Hosaka, Fellow,The International Centre for Defence and Security, Estonia
- April 2023, Evolution of European Security System - Visualization of Deterrence by NATO and the "Russian Problem" by Michito Tsuruoka, Associate Professor, Keio University
- April 2023, "An Expanded NATO's Nuclear Strategy" by Yoko Iwama
- March, 2023, "Germany's Civilian Power Model—Modification or Termination?--Germany Struggling with the War in Ukraine" by Toshiya Nakamura, Professor, Nagoya University
- March, 2023, "France and the Ukraine War―The Logic Behind Macron's Security Policy" by Ken Endo, Professor, The University of Tokyo
- March, 2023, "The Russo-Ukrainian War and the British Response: 2014-2023" by Yuichi Hosoya, Professor, Keio University
- March, 2023, "Where is America Heading—Implications and Challenges for the Allies" by Koji Murata, Professor, Doshisha University
-
December 2022, Proposal "Defending Our Country – Defense Policy in a New Cold War Era" was announced
- Front Cover
- Changes in the Security Environment Surrounding Japan - Shifting Power Balance and the Three Front Threats Ken Jimbo
- How Will "Japan Contingencies" Emerge? Osamu Onoda
- The Japan-US Alliance Revisited: Is it Dependable? Chikako Kawakatsu Ueki
- A New Phase of Defense Diplomacy and Defense Production and Technology Base Ippeita Nishida, Tsuneo Watanabe
- Intelligence Activities in the Post-Ukraine War Era Jun Nagashima
- Responding to the Nuclear Threat Masashi Murano
- No Time to Lose for Improving Japan's Defense Capabilities - Can the JSDF Defend the Homeland? - Ryoichi Oriki
- Toward the Formulation of a New "National Security Strategy" Hideshi Tokuchi
- October 2022, "Japan-China Relations under the Long-term Administration of Xi Jinping: Current Status, Prospects, and Expectations" written by Kazuyuki Suwa, Professor, University of Shizuoka
- October 2022, "China's Policy on the Global South --- China's World View and the Configuration of the US-China Confrontation " written by Shin Kawashima, Professor, the University of Tokyo
- October 2022, "Military Strategy of Xi Jinping's China" written by Bonji Ohara, Senior Fellow, Sasagawa Peace Foundation
- September 2022, " Social Governance by the Communist Party of China: The Present State and the Future Prospects " written by Kazuko Kojima, Professor, Keio University
- September 2022, "The Relationship between Domestic Politics and Diplomacy under the Xi Jinping Administration- Why Were the Large-Scale Military Exercises Decided?" written by Chisako T. Masuo, Professor, Kyushu University
- September 2022, "Xi Jinping's China--- Prospects for Its Climate Change Policy ---" written by Takashi Sekiyama, Associate Professor, The University of Kyoto
- August 2022, " Current Assessment of the Xi Jinping's Rule and Prospects for the Third Term of the Xi Administration " written by Takashi Suzuki, Associate Professor, Aichi Prefectural University
- August 2022, " Economic Challenges Awaiting the Xi Jinping Administration As it Enters its Third Term" written by Toshiya Tsugami, Director, Tsugami Toshiya's Works
- July 2022, "The Russian Invasion of Ukraine and the Future International Legal Order" written by Masahiro Kurosaki, Associate Professor, National Defense Academy
- July 2022, "The Ukraine War and Security in East Asia" written by Narushige Michishita, Vice President, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- July 2022, "How Will the Ukraine War Change the New US-China Cold War?" written by Yasuhiro Matsuda, Professor, the University of Tokyo
- July 2022, "Impact of the Ukraine War on the Global Economy" written by Tatsuhiko Yoshizaki, Chief Economist, Sojitz Research Institute, Ltd.
- June 2022, "Why War Occurs in Europe?--The Structural Transformation of the European Security Order in the Post-Cold War Era --" written by Yuichi Hosoya, Professor, Keio University
- June 2022,"The Russia-Ukrainian War and the Behind-the-Scenes Stance of the United States" "On Economic Security" written by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- June 2022, "The Russia-Ukraine War and NATO", written by Michito Tsuruoka, Associate Professor, Keio University
- June 2022, "The Ukrainian War Viewed from Theories of International Politics" written by Matake Kamiya, Professor, National Defens Academy
- March 2022, "Economic Security Challenges and Cyber Security" written by Jun Osawa, Senior Research Fellow, Nakasone Peace Institute
- March 2022, "On Economic Security" written by Matake Kamiya, Professor, the Ntional Defense Academy
- March 2022, ""Economic Security" and the Review of the 2013 NSS and the Related Strategy Documents" written by Nobushige Takamizawa, Visiting Professor, the University of Tokyo
- March 2022, "The US-China Rivalry and Economic Security" written by Yuzo Murayama, Professor, Doshisya University
- March 2022, "Japan's National Security Policies and Science and Technology" written by Nobukatsu Kanehara, Professor, Doshisya University
- March 2022, "Economic Security in the Free Trade Regime" written by Kazuto Suzuki, Professor, the University of Tokyo
- January 2022, "The 2022 South Korean Presidential Election and the Next Administration's Foreign and Security Policy" written by Junya Nishino, Professor, Keio University
- January 2022, "North Korea's Nuclear and Missile Development and Japan's Defense" written by Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, GRIPS
- January 2022, "What will Become of Japan-South Korea Relations? The 1965 Japan-South Korea Treaty System in Jeopardy" written by Masao Okonogi, Professor Emeritus, Keio University
- December 2021, "Economic and Social Conditions in North Korea and its Relations with South Korea" written by Mitsuhiro Mimura, Chief Research Fellow, The Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia.
- December 2021, "China's Korean Peninsula Policy and North Korea" written by Shin Kawashima, Professor, the University of Tokyo.
- December 2021, "China's Korean Peninsula Policy and North Korea" written by Shunji Hiraiwa, Professor, Nanzan University.
- December 2021, "What to Do with the Relations with North Korea?" written by Hitoshi Tanaka, Chairman for Institute for International Strategy at the Japan Research Institute.
- October 2021, "Strategic Implications of North Korea's Enhanced Nuclear and Missile Capabilities" written by Narushige Michishita, Vice President, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
- October 2021, "The Biden Administration's North Korea Policy: Its Low Priority and Looming Crises" written by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation.
- October 2021, "The Evolution of the US-ROK Alliance: Tasks in the Biden Era" written by Yasuyo Sakata, Professor, Kanda University of International Studies.
- September 2021, "The Development of Regional Security Architecture: From Asia-Pacific to Indo-Pacific" written by Ken Jimbo, Professor, Keio University.
- September 2021, "The Strategic Development of Japanese Security Cooperation under Superpower Competition and the Development of the FOIP and its Operationalization" written by Nobushige Takamizawa, Visiting Professor, Graduate School of Public Policy, The University of Tokyo.
- August 2021, "Security Perceptions of Central Asian Countries--- From the Perspective of China Studies ---" written by Shin Kawashima, Professor, the University of Tokyo.
- August 2021, "Security in the Indian Ocean Region---Implication of the Galwan Incident for QUAD in the Indo-Pacific" written by Dr. Satoru Nagao, Fellow (Non-Resident), Hudson Institute.
- August 2021, "Easternization and Security in Asia" written by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation.
- July 2021, "The Ideas of "Autonomy" and "Self-Reliance" in Contemporary India's Foreign Strategy" written by Kazutoshi TAMARI, Associate Professor,Chukyo University.
- July 2021, "Thailand's Security Policies and Threat Perceptions" written by Saya Kiba, Associate Professor, Komatsu University, Faculty of Intercultural Communication.
- July 2021, "Myanmar's Security Perceptions and the February 1 Coup d'Etat" written by Yoshihiro Nakanishi, Associate Professor, Kyoto University.
- July 2021, "Australia's Security Perceptions and the "Asia Threat"" written byTomohiko Satake, Senior Fellow, Defense Policy Division, Policy Studies Department, NIDS .
- June 2021, "The Indo-Pacific Regional Architecture: Its Future--- Multipolar Order Beyond US-China Relations ---" by Tsutomu Kikuchi, Professor, Aoyama Gakuin University
- June 2021, "The Quad Plus in the Security of Asia: Its Significance and Outlook" by Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- June 2021, "Indonesian Views and Perceptions on National Security" by Nobuhiro Aizawa, Associate Professor, The Graduate School of Social and Cultural Studies, Kyushu University
- June 2021, "Normalized Tensions in the Cross-Strait Relations--- Structural Changes in Taiwanese Society and the Xi Jinping Administration's Strategic Shift ---" by Yasuhiro Matsuda, Professor, The University of Tokyo
- June 2021, "China's Maritime Strategy and Responses of the United States and Japan" by Yoji Koda, Former Commander in Chief, Self Defense Fleet
- June 2021, "The South China Issues from the Perspective of the International Law Order",by Shigeki Sakamoto, Emeritus Professor, Kobe University
- May 2021, "Indonesian Views and Perceptions on National Security" by Nobuhiro Aizawa, Associate Professor, Kyushu University
- May, 2021, "The Philippine Foreign and Security Policy Perspective" written by Yusuke Takagi Associate Professor,National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
- May, 2021, "Vietnam's Security: Challenges and Responses" written by Tomotaka Shoji Head, Asia and Africa Division, Regional Studies Department, National Institute for Defense Studies
- March, 2021, "Can the Biden Administration Restore America as a Global Leader?" written by Matake Kamiya, Professor, the National Defense Academy of Japan.
- March, 2021, "The Biden Administration and Japan's Security Strategy" written by Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
- February,2021, "US Foreign and Security Policy Direction Viewed from the Biden Administration's Lineup" written by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- February,2021, "Trade Policies of the Biden Administration" written by Takaaki Asano, Senior Analyst, Sumitomo Corporation Global Research Co. Ltd.
- February,2021, "The Biden Administration's Policy toward Russia" written by Taisuke Abiru, Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- January,2021, "Will US Policy Toward China Change?" lectured by Ryo Sahashi, Associate Professor, the University of Tokyo
- January,2021, "How will China View the Biden Administration?" written by Bonji Ohara, Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- January,2021, "An Assessment of the 2020 US Presidential Election-American Democracy Now-" lectured by Fumiaki Kubo, Professor, the University of Tokyo
- January,2021, "Two Trumpian Mysteries-Why did Trump win over 70 million votes? Why is his outrageous behavior unchecked?-" lectured by Kazuhiro Maeshima, Professor, Sophia University
- September, 2020, "The Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic and Internationa Relationsl" by Matake Kamiya, Professor, National Defense Academy of Japan
- September, 2020, "The Policy Agenda for the Xi Jinping Administration- COVID-19 Countermeasures and China's International Relations -" by Shin Kawashima, Professor, The University of Tokyo
- "Control in the United States and International Relations" by Koji Murata, Professor, Doshisha University
- September, 2020, "The EU's Response to COVID-19 and International Relations" by Yuichi Hosoya, Professor, Keio University
- August, 2020, "The Corona Crisis Seen from a Macroeconomic Perspective" written by Motoshige Itoh, Professor Emeritus, The University of Tokyo
- August, 2020, "The Coronavirus Pandemic and Japan's Infectious Disease Control" written by Takashi Mihara, Senior Research Fellow, NLI Research Institute
- August, 2020, "Infectious Disease Crisis Control in Japan- Recommendations on an Exit Strategy -" written by Kazumasa Oguro, Professor, Hosei University
- August, 2020, "Security against Infectious Disease Threats --- Policy Responses Abroad" written by Takashi Sekiyama, Associate Professor, Kyoto University
- June 2020,"Transformation of the International Order in the Middle East--- Varying Degrees of "Stateness" and Three Directions of the New Order" written by Satoshi Ikeuchi, Professor, Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo
- June 2020,"Destabilization in the Middle East and its Impacts on Japan's Energy Security" written by Amane Kobayashi, Research Fellow, The Institute of Energy Economics
- May 2020: Urgent Recommendations "Toward a V-shaped Recovery after the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic "Coronavirus Testing for All" --- the First Step of the Next Phase"
- May 2020: "US Diplomacy toward Iran: Economic Sanctions as a Diplomatic Tool" Hiroki Sugita Columnist, Kyodo News
- "Russian Factors in the Middle East" Taisuke Abiru Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- "The SDF Dispatches to the Middle East --- History and Significance" Ippeita Nishida Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- March 2020, "Space and Security" Kazuto Suzuki Professor, Hokkaido University
- March 2020, "The US Security Space Policy --- With a Focus on the Establishment of Two Space Forces" Yasuhito Fukushima Chief Researcher, The National Institute for Defense Studies
- March 2020, "China's Recent Activities in Space and Cyberspace" Bonji Ohara Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- March 2020, "Environmental Security and Japan" Takashi Sekiyama Associate Professor, Kyoto University
- March 2020, "Changes in Global Environment and Security --- US Security Strategy" Hideshi Tokuchi Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)
- February 2020, "Cyberspace Security" Motohiro Tsuchiya Professor, Keio University
- February 2020, "Japan's Space and Cyberspace Policy" Yukinari Hirose Former President of the National Institute for Defense Studies
- December 2019, "The US-China Confrontation --- Where Will Hegemony Reside Next?" Akio Takahara Professor, the University of Tokyo
- December 2019, "Challenges Facing the Chinese Economy" Osamu Tanaka Chief Senior Researcher, Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO
- December 2019, "US Strategic Perception on China: Implications for US Allied Partners" Tsuneo Watanabe Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- November 2019, "The Xi Jinping Administration's View of the International Order– China's emphasis on United Nations diplomacy and liberal economic policies−" Shin Kawashima, Professor, the University of Tokyo
- November 2019, "The Future of China's Security Strategy" Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- November 2019, "China --- Its Confidence and Anxiety" Bonji Ohara, Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- August 2019: Several Perspectives on the Korean Peninsula Issue--- The Deteriorating Japan-South Korea Relationship and the Uncertain Denuclearization of North Korea --- By Masahiro Akiyama Chairman, the SSDP
- July 2019, "An Outlook on the Denuclearization of North Korea--- What is the Stance of North Korea?---", Junya Nishino, Professor, Keio University
- July 2019, "An Outlook on the Denuclearization of North Korea --- How will the US move?", Narushige Michishita, Vice President, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- July 2019, "Discussion on Denuclearization of North Korea", SSDP Discussion Meeting on May 8, 2019
- May 2019: "Current Status and Prospects of South Korea and Japan's Frictions over History: How to address the Judicial Problems", Masao Okonogi, Professor Emeritus, Keio University
- May 2019: "South Korea and Japan's Frictions over History" (Comments), Junya Nishino, Professor, Keio University
- May 2019: Japan and South Korea Relationships (Question & Answer)
- March 2019: "The Present State and Prospects of the Indian Economy and Economic Policies" written by Koji Kobayashi, Senior Economist Mizuho Research Institute Ltd.
- March 2019: "The "Modi diplomacy" in the History of Indian diplomacy--- Departure from or maintenance of the traditional diplomacy? ---" written by Toru Ito, The National Defense Academy of Japan
- February 2019: Dynamics of Indian Politics and the 2019 General Elections, written by Chiharu Takenaka, Professor of Rikkyo University
- February 2019: "Cooperative Strategy" to Realize "Competitive Strategy"--- The composite structure of Japan's "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" strategy (vision) ---, written by Matake Kamiya, Professor at The National Defense Academy of Japan
- January 2019:, A paper, "How will the US midterm elections results affect the Trump administration's foreign policy for 2019?" written by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- January 2019:, A paper, "The Present and Future of the International Trade Order" , written by Akihiko Tamura, Professor, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- December 2018: The US-China Competition and Japan, written by Ryo Sahashi, Professor at Kanagawa University
- December 2018: An Outlook for the US-China Trade War―What makes the two economically interdependent superpowers confront each other?―, written by Takashi Sekiyama, Associate professor at Toyo University
- September 2018: Proposal, "The Denuclearization of North Korea and the Restoration of Peace in the Korean Peninsula― Correct Perceptions and Eight Proposals on Japan's North Korea Diplomacy-" edited by the Society of Security and Diplomatic Policy Studies
- September 2018: "The Taiwan Policy of the Xi Jinping Administration in its Second Term: An Outlook on Cross-Strait Relations in the New Era" written by Yasuhiro Matsuda, Professor of the Tokyo University
- July 2018: "The EU States and Russia on North Korea Issues- Expansion of Influence through Diplomacy: Attempts and Limitations -" lectured by Yuichi Hosoya, Professor of Keio University
- "An Assessment of the US-North Korea Summit and an Outlook for the Future of the Korean Peninsula" lectured by Junya Nishino, Professor of Keio University
- "Korean Peninsula Issue and Japan's Future Security Policy" written by Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow of National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- July 2018: "US North Korea policy affected by personnel changes in the Trump administration" lectured by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation.
- "China-North Korea relationship under Xi Jinping" lectured by Shin Kawashima, Professor of the Tokyo University.
- "North Korean Denuclearization and Russia" lectured by Nobuo Shimotomai, Professor of the Hosei University.
- March 2018: "The Network Hegemony Theory for a Security Architecture in The Asia Pacific Region" lectured by Masahiro Akiyama, Chairman, the Society of Security and Diplomatic Policy Studies
- January 2018: "A Destabilized Middle East" lectured by Koichiro Tanaka, Professor, Keio University
- December 2017: "Problems in Sino-Japanese Relations, 1992-2042" lectured by Ezra F. Vogel, Professor of the Social Sciences Emeritus at Harvard University
- November 2017: "The Future of the Asia-Pacific Region" written by Yoriko Kawaguchi, Fellow, the Meiji Institute for Global Affairs, Former Minister Foreign Affairs
- October 2017: "A New Trend in India's Foreign Policy and Japan" Written by HIROSE,Takako, Professor, Senshu University
- August 2017: "The Shocks that shook the Transatlantic World and their Implication for Japan's Foreign Policy" written by HOSOYA, Yuichi, Professor, Keio University
- August 2017: "Does Economic Interdependence not Encourage Collaboration? ―Thinking Japan-China Relations from an Economic Perspective―" written by Takashi SEKIYAMA, Ph.D., Toyo University
- July 2017: Proposal article "The Trump Administration's Impact on the Cross-Strait Relations" written by Yasuhiro Matsuda, Ph.D.
- June 2017: Proposal article "The outlook for the relationship between two great powers and implications for Japanese diplomacy" written by Professor Shin Kawashima
- May 2017: (Emergency Proposal) Facing the Inconvenient Truth: Re-examining Policy for Peace and Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula (Chief author, Masao Okonogi)
- March 2017: "Economic Influences of the Trump Administration" written by Professor Motoshige Ito
- February, 2017: Proposal article "Trump's Foreign and Security Policy - Unpredictable President, Realistic Secretaries - " written by Mr. Tsuneo Watanabe is posted on the website of SSDP.
- December, 2016: Proposal article "Reconsidering North Korea Policy: How to Deal with a Nuclear Armed Divided States" written by Professor Masao Okonogi is posted on the website of SSDP.
- Taiwan-Japan Round Table on August 24th, at Capital Tokyu Hotel
- Japan-Korea Political Leaders Dialogue was held on February 10th,2023 at International House of Japan
- March 2022, A remembrance seminar "Remembering Professor Ezra Vogel" held on January 17, 2022
- March 2021, Japan-ROK Parliamentary Dialogue -Japan-ROK Cooperation in the Era of US-China Competition- held on March 11, 2021
- December 2020: The report of the Japan-ROK Future Dialogue held on November 21 to discuss "Japan-ROK Cooperation in the Post-Covid-19 Era
- October 2020: "Responses to COVID-19 and Agendas for the Post-COVID-19 Era", A Brief Overview of the Japan-Korea Experts Dialogue held on July 29,30, 2020
- October 2020: "The China-Taiwan Confrontation over Corona Response and Taiwan's Security" written by Makoto Ogata, Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
- May 2020: "Rivalries in the Middle East in New Security Dynamics", Written by Sayed Ghoneim, Major General (retired) of the Egyptian Armed Forces, Chairman, Institute for Global Security & Defence Affairs
- March 2020: The Japan-South Korea Relationship in a Cul-de-Sac--- Where is an Exit ? Masao Okonogi Professor Emeritus, Keio Universit
- December 2019: The Hong Kong Upheaval and the Future of Cross-Straits Relations-The 2019 Japan-Taiwan Strategic Dialogue Report OGATA, Makoto Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
- August 2019: Report; 2019 FUTURE CONSENSUS DIALOGUE --Sustainable Prosperity and Future of Korea-U.S.-Japan Cooperation-- By Future Consensus Institute (Yeosijae)
- June 2019: Report on India – Japan Security Dialogue 2019 by Ms. Vindu Mai Chotani, Ph.D Student, The University of Tokyo
-
June 2019: Four papers on Japan-India Cooperation submitted to India-Japan Security Dialogue 2019
-
Japan's Rationale for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision
Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, The Sasakawa Peace Foundation -
The Significance and Possibilities of India-Japan Cooperation in the Concept of the Indo-Pacific
Toru ITO Associate Professor, National Defense Academy of Japan -
Japan-India Defense Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific Context - Operationalizing the Security Aspect of the Indo-Pacific Vision –
Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS) -
India-US-Japan Defense Cooperation: What's next?
Dr. Satoru Nagao, Hudson Institute
-
Japan's Rationale for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision
- November 2018: "The Present State of the Japanese Economy and Policy Issues" lectured by Motoshige Itoh, Professor Emeritus at the University of Tokyo.
- November 2018: "Expanding Social Security Expenses and Fiscal Reforms" lectured by Kazumasa Oguro, Professor at Hosei University.
- September 2018: "Taiwan Identity and Cross-Strait Relations and Trump's Taiwan Policy and the Future of Taiwan-US Relations-Discussion at The Second Japan-Taiwan Strategic Dialogue (June 21, 2018, Taipei)-" written by OGATA, Makoto
- September 2018: "Japan-Taiwan Dialogue 2018 Minutes", 21st June 2018, Taipei, Taiwan.
- July 2018: Report on The Second Japan – Philippines Strategic Dialogue prepared by Ms. Vindu Mai Chotani, Ph.D. Student, Graduate School of Public Policy, Tokyo University.
- May 2018: "Civilian Control "at Crisis"? – Perhaps Not, for the Case of the Field Sit-reps from SDF's South Sudan Mission" reported by Ippeita Nishida, Research Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- January 2018: "Fukushima, Genki?Project-Young Taiwanese volunteers introduce the facts on Fukushima's revival through documentary films-" reported by OGATA, Makoto, Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
- December 2017: "Commemorating a Quarter Century of Dispatches of the JSDF's PKO Units: Challenges and Possibilities in the Post South Sudan" written by Takayuki Shoji, Lecturer, Nihon University
- November 2017: "19th CCP National Congress" written by Mr. Bonji Ohara, Senior Research Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Fondation
- October 2017: "What is Japan's Role in the Indo-China border conflict?" written by Dr. NGAO,Satoru, Research Fellow, Institute for Future Engineering
- July 2017: "Overview of the Current Situation in Taiwan-" the Naturally Independent Generation" will affect the Taiwan"s politics-" written by Makoto Ogata MGE.(Ret.)
- June 2017: "Japan-U.S. Economic Dialogue" written by Mr.Takaaki Asano
- March 2017: "The Japan-Philippines Strategic Dialogue" written by Mr. Hideshi Tokuchi
- February, 2017: Current topic "The Importance of Japan's Security Role Under Trump" written by Dr. Satoru Nagao is posted on the SSDP website.
- December, 2016: Current topic "Widening Security Task: Will SDF do the Job?" written by Mr. Ippeita Nishida is posted on the SSDP website.
- July 2024, Research journal "Security Studies vol6 no2" (How Has South Korea Changed under the Yoon Suk-yeol Administration?) in English edition was published.
- April 2024, Research journal "Security Studies vol6 no1" (The Middle East in Turmoil) in English edition was published.
- December 2023, Research journal "Security Studies vol5 no4" (What is th Global South?) in English edition was published.
- September 2023, Research journal "Security Studies vol5 no3" (Hegemonic America: Where It's Headed) in English edition was published.
- June 2023,Research journal "Security Studies vol5 no2" (Nuclear Crisis Scenarios Facing Japan and the Outlook of Nuclear Deterrence and Arms Control and Disarmament) in English edition was published.
- March 2023,Research journal "Security Studies vol5 no1" (What Will Happen to European Security?―Facing the War in Ukraine) in English edition was published.
- January 2023, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 4)" - Defending Our Country – Defense Policy in a "New Cold War Era - was published.
- October 2022, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 3)" - Xi Jinping's China - Politics, Economy, Society and Diplomacy - was published.
- Jun 2022, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 2)" -The Russia-Ukraine War and Its Global Impact- was published.
- March 2022, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 1)"-What is Economic Security?- was published.
- December 2021, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 3 no 4)"-Korean Peninsula Situation- was published.
- September 2021, A research journal "Security Studies vol03 no03" -Asia's Security II- (English edition)
- June 2021, A research journal "Security Studies vol03 no02" -Asia's Security I- (English edition)
- March 2021: Research journal "Security Studies (vol3 no1) "- US Foreign Policy in the Biden Administration / The 2020 US Presidential Election and American Democracy -(English edition)
- December 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no4) "- Normalize Japan-South Korea Relations trough Dialogues -(English edition)
- September 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no3) "-The Novel Coronavirus and Security-(English edition)
- July 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no2) - Middle East Situation and Japan's Security - " (English edition) was published
- May 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no1) - Cyber, Space, Environment and Security - " March 2020 (English edition)
- February 2020, "A research journal "Security Studies (vol1 no4) " (English edition)"
- September 2019: A research journal "Security Studies (vol1 no3) " (English edition)
- August 2019: Korea-Japan Joint Seminar: FUTURE CONSENSUS DIALOGUE
- April 2019: "Security Studies (vol1 no2) April 2019"
- March 2019: A research journal "Security Studies vol1 no01" just published
- February 2019: The Denuclearization of North Korea and the Takeshima Issue
- December 2018: Former Vice Defense Minister Masahiro Akiyama's Memoirs (An Ad)
- November 2018: Participation in the Future Consensus Forum held in Beijing
- September 2018: "2018 Indo-Pacific Security Dialogue" reported by Masahiro Akiyama
- 2017 December: "The Butterfly Project-A possibility of showing a solution to the North Korea problem-"
- October 2017: Campaign on the problems with North Korea
- August 2017: A New Containment Policy Strategy
- June 2017: Korean peninsla
- March 2017: President Duterte
- February, 2017: Kazakhstan
- November, 2016: Participated in Astana Club 2016 held in Kazakhstan on November 14- 16, 2016.