(Project of the Kajima Institute of International Peace)
How will the US midterm elections results affect the Trump administration's foreign policy for 2019?
Senior Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation
SSDP Senior Associate
The 2018 US midterm elections attracted unprecedentedly wide attention and concerns not only domestically but also from the international community. The Trump administration may seem responsible for deranging the world order. The recent elections were considered to help discern the administration's policy direction for its remaining two-years until the presidential election in 2020, and also President Trump's reelection prospects.
The Republican Party succeeded in preserving its majority in the Senate by increasing its number of seats, whereas in the House of Representatives, the Democratic Party secured a majority by adding as many as 40 seats. President Trump declared victory because of the Republican majority in the Senate. Undoubtedly, however, the Democrats' control of the House of Representatives will substantially change the situation from the last two years when Republicans dominated the majority in both houses. This paper will discuss the implications of the recent midterm elections that ended in a draw, and the impact of Democrats' control of the House of Representatives on President Trump himself and on his administration's policies for 2019.
What are the implications of the 2018 midterm elections?
The Republican Party secured its majority in the Senate by adding two seats to total 53 seats against the Democratic Party's 47 seats, while in the House of Representatives, Democrats won the majority by adding 40 seats to total 235 against Republican's 199 seats --- with an unconfirmed seat. In addition, in the gubernatorial elections, the Democratic Party got 23 governors elected, including seven new governors.
In many previous midterm elections after the inauguration of a new president, voters' sense of balance seems to have worked against the ruling party, which in many cases reduced its number of seats in both houses and lost the majority in many cases. As were the most recent cases from the Carter in 1978 to the Obama in 2010, except the George W. Bush administration in 2002, the then ruling parties lost seats in the first midterm elections after the inauguration of the new administrations. If seen this way, it may not be incorrect to regard the Republicans keeping the majority in the Senate as an election victory. Actually, after the midterm elections, President Trump lost no time in declaring victory. In the Senate, however, more Democratic senators faced reelection than Republicans, and since many of those reelection states were conservative states where Trump won in the 2016 presidential election, thus the Republican Party retained advantages there.
Normally, any President in the second year of his term would not spend time in helping the ruling party candidates in the midterm election campaign. Ready to subject himself to the judgement of voters, he is rather apt to evade criticism against his administration by detaching himself from the election campaign support --- or simply because he may be too busy with presidential work to spare time for that purpose. Things were different with President Trump. He actively helped Republican lawmakers, particularly senators, more than any Republican president did in the past. He must have wanted to keep the majority in the Senate at the very least, given that the odds were against Republican Congressmen. The increased Republican majority in the Senate has enabled President Trump to appoint his cabinet members at his will.
In order to disrupt the investigation led by Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller into the Russia-gate scandal where the Trump camp and the Russian government allegedly conspired to hack and disclose Clinton camp information during the 2016 Presidential Election campaign, President Trump ousted Attorney General Jeff Sessions who was reluctant to exert negative pressure on the investigation. Instead, President Trump designated William Barr as Sessions' successor, who was known to have a negative opinion on the Mueller investigation. Republican dominance in the Senate allowed President Trump to execute this series of personnel replacements, because the Senate has authority to approve these presidential appointments.
Meanwhile, in the House of Representatives, incumbents' superiority tends to be much more conspicuous than in the Senate. It was a great opportunity for the Democratic Party that a number of Republican incumbents retired who had contributed to the Republican dominance in the House of Representatives. A nationwide spread of support for the Democratic Party and its collection of election campaign funds exceeding those of the Republican Party --- fueled by antipathy toward President Trump --- resulted in the Democrats large victory in the election for the House of Representatives.
Looking at the nation-wide voting trends for the recent midterm elections, the Democratic Party, compared with the Republican Party, secured more votes from women, young people, racial minorities (black, Hispanic, and Asian people), sexual minorities represented by LGBT, urban and suburban residents, and highly educated white males. The current electoral division is in favor of Republican dominance due to the Republicans numerical superiority in terms of governors and state legislators. Given the long-term demographic dynamics, however, a long-term dominance of Democratic supporters is foreseeable.
What appealed most to female voters was the Brett Kavanaugh scandal. At a public hearing of the Senate Judiciary Committee for approval of the presidential nomination of Brett Kavanaugh as a justice on the Supreme Court, Christine Ford testified that she was sexually harassed by Kavanaugh in her teens. Despite the fact that her testimony was credible, the Republican Party approved the nomination. This resulted in a strong sense of repulsion from female voters. On the contrary, the conservative voters seem to have expressed sympathy for Kavanaugh. Among Democratic senators in the conservative states, Senator Joseph Manchin III of West Virginia who approved Kavanaugh was reelected, while Senator Joe Donnelly of Indiana and Senator Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota failed to be elected.
The Democratic Party's move to the left supported by the newly growing supporters suggests a move diverging from the existing Democratic mainstream. Whether or not a Democratic candidate for the 2020 Presidential Election can consolidate the party and beat President Trump will attract more focus.
Many anti-Trump lawmakers such as Republican Senator Bob Corker, chairman of the Senate's Committee on Foreign Relations, and Republican Senator Jeff Flake retired, and as a consequence, support for President Trump was consolidated chiefly in the Senate. This was a good result for President Trump, in the sense that it could prevent his removal by impeachment, which could be realized with the support of two thirds of Senators. However, at a victory press conference after the completion of the midterm elections, he argued strongly with a CNN reporter criticizing him, and went so far as to deprive the reporter of his White House press pass. We must be vigilant against the President's peculiar way of thinking and his mental state.
With Democratic domination in the House of Representatives, a Democratic-led committee there will pursue investigation into the possibility of impeachment of President Trump and into Russia-gate. The President is extremely vigilant of and anxious about developments in the House of Representatives. We need to consider that these developments will generate a significant impact on President Trump's behavior.
Also noteworthy is the result of the recent midterm elections in the four states in the rust belt (rusted industrial areas) --- Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, states which had been the key to Trump's victory in the 2016 Presidential Election. The Democratic Party won the Senate election in all of the four states, and in the gubernatorial election also, the Democratic Party won in three out of the four states except Ohio. The elections results are a matter of grave concern for President Trump who had won the 2016 presidential election in all of the four states. This could be an excuse for the Trump administration to pursue its protectionist policy.
In connection with the above-mentioned press conference, it deserves attention that in answering a question from a Japanese reporter, President Trump argued that the Japanese automobile market is closed and unfair, after telling him to "send a message to Shinzo."
Immediately before the midterm elections, President Trump dispatched military to the US-Mexico border to deal with refugee caravans from Honduras aiming to reach the border. President Trump's adamant attitude on the immigrants issue have had the effect of earning support from Republican conservatives. The outright political use of military called for objections and concerns of Democratic supporters and Republican elites, and left a stain in the long-standing US political-military relationship (civil-military relationship). The President's political use of the military has provided Democrats with an enduring source of criticism against him.
President Trump cornered by the Russia-gate scandal
Shortly after the midterm elections, President Trump dismissed Attorney General Sessions who had been pressed to resign. Sessions was a supporter of Donald Trump, as he was the first to express his support for Trump in the Republican Congress. Sessions wisely recused himself from the Russia-gate investigation led by Special Prosecutor Mueller, and asked Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein to take over responsibility for overview of the investigation. President Trump condemned Sessions' behavior for lacking loyalty.
Furthermore, President Trump appointed Matthew Whitaker as Acting Attorney General, instead of the Deputy Attorney General or the Solicitor General, the number three person in the Department of Justice. Whitaker was Sessions' chief of staff, and well known loyalist to President Trump. President Trump also pressured Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein to resign. Criticism rose that the appointment of Whitaker was unconstitutional. The President then appointed William Barr as Attorney General. Barr, like Whitaker, was critical of the Mueller investigation.
It will remain important in 2019 for President Trump to impede the investigation into Russia-gate. The media points out that this action by President Trump reminds us of Nixon's "Saturday Night Massacre." On October 20, 1973, when the investigation into the Watergate scandal, where Nixon was alleged to have instructed the bugging of the offices of political opponents during the election campaign, was underway, Nixon ordered Attorney General Elliot Richardson and Deputy Attorney General William Ruckelshaus to fire Special Prosecutor Archibald Cox. Both of them refused to do so and were forced to resign.
President Nixon dismissed the Attorney General and the Deputy Attorney General who refused to fire Special Prosecutor Cox and appointed Solicitor General Robert Bork, the number three person at the Department of Justice, as Acting Attorney General. Thus President Nixon made Bork fire Cox. Then the President mobilized the FBI staff and blocked the offices of Special Prosecutor, Attorney General and Deputy Attorney General; confiscated the documents relevant to the scandal; abolished the Special Federal Prosecutor's Office, and announced that all authorities concerning the investigation should be relegated to the Department of Justice.
However, such abject self-protection roused antipathy from US citizens. Part of the Republican Congress began to take an anti-Nixon position, and in 1974 the Judicial Committee of the House of Representatives decided on the impeachment of President Nixon on account of his obstruction of justice, abuse of power, and contempt of Congress. Thus, President Nixon was forced to resign.
President Trump's actions are unpredictable. Will he make a pre-emptive move to terminate the investigation, or will his blatant obstruction of the investigation as done by President Nixon invite opposition from the Congress and as a result expedite his impeachment? President Nixon seems to have taken self-destructive action after being psychologically cornered. President Trump seems to have psychological weak points, and it cannot be denied that he could go down a similar path as Nixon.
Continuing uncertainty in US foreign policy and trade policy
When considering the Trump administration's diplomacy, trade and security policy for 2019, we should note what has been revealed from the midterm election --- President Trump's attitude prioritizing his reelection in the 2020 Presidential Election and his increasingly self-centric way of administration. The administration's policy is suspected to give priority to the survival of President Trump himself rather than to the realization of US national interests. Most of the staff members who venture to criticize President Trump from anxiety about US national interests and democracy left the administration. The Republican Congress will be more obedient to the Trump administration's policy, while the Democratic Congress will increasingly sharpen its confrontation with the Trump administration.
Things foreseeable at this moment are: President Trump's arbitrariness will accelerate and the administration's confusion will become profound, and the US centripetal force will dwindle, adversely affecting the world order. On December 8, President Trump announced that Chief of Staff John Kelly would retire by the end of this year (2018). Kelly, a retired U.S. Marine Corps general, has brought discipline to the White House and attempted to control President Trump's behavior since his taking office in August 2017. However, since February 2018, Kelly began to lose President Trump's trust and failed to control the President's behavior.
Since then, President Trump has rarely listened to the opinions of regular advisors, promoted policies relying on his own intuition, and has given audience only to the people who support his intuition rather than criticize it. The result is a sequence of policies damaging the confidence in the United States and the world order the United States has so far built up, such as protectionism against not only China but also Japan and Europe, withdrawal from a comprehensive nuclear agreement with Iran, and haphazard approach to North Korea.
The Nomination of a successor to Chief of Staff Kelly did not go smoothly. Conservative Republican Mick Mulvaney, who took office of Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in the White House, was nominated to be acting Chief of Staff. Now that Kelly has failed, however, Mulvaney would not venture to undertake the "mission impossible" of controlling the President's behavior. Until now, President Trump has replaced many cabinet members and staff, but the newly appointed people were, also soon replaced by those who claim more loyalty to the President and who do not contradict or criticize him.
Concerns over US diplomacy and security are mounting. Defense James Mattis and Kelly fought together as marines in the battlefields of Iraq and pledged to resign together "when they quit the administration." But Kelly is quitting alone. In addition, Secretary of Defense James Mattis will also quit soon. The remarks that Mattis is alleged to have said, "The president acted like — and had the understanding of — a fifth or sixth grader," were disclosed. His position is now compromised. Unlike other government departments under the Trump administration, the Department of Defense has functioned realistically under the strong leadership of Mattis. If he left, the department would lose its leader, and the morale of the US army would plummet only to benefit challengers to the world order.
(Note: This article was written in December, 2018)
Moreover, on December 7, Special Prosecutor Mueller investigating Russia-gate announced that President Trump's former personal lawyer Michael Cohen acknowledged his cooperation with the Russian authorities trying to influence the 2016 Presidential Election in favor of Trump. Since the Democratic Party will dominate the majority in the House of Representatives from 2019, Democrats could encourage the investigation into Russia-gate targeting President Trump himself and could impeach him, depending on the results of the investigation.
The situation where President Trump feels psychologically pressure could seriously affect the Trump administration. One of the reasons for the support for the unpredictable Trump administration is a strong US economy. However, due to the business cycle and the Federal Reserve Bank's interest rate hike, the US economy will likely recede in the latter half of 2019. These are additional concerns for President Trump. Leaders who feel uneasy about their own status tend to take extreme policies to shift voters' attention elsewhere. President Trump has so far overcome his scandals by diverting voters' attention by posting messages on Twitter and by other theatrical performances. Now the President is about to face a more serious situation in 2019 after most of the people who made reasonable arguments based on US national interests have left.
The largest concern for Japan is whether President Trump will escalate the US-China confrontation over the trade imbalance and future technological hegemony, or will resort to an unexpected "deal," giving priority to US economic growth to appeal to voters. Currently President Trump's arbitrariness becomes increasingly conspicuous; Japan will be compelled to prepare for the possibility of both of these extreme policies.
As for North Korea --- a source of similarly grave concern for Japan, will President Trump come up with some surprise from another US-North Korea summit meeting or will he exert severe military pressure once again on North Korea? No wonder whichever extreme policies will be taken.
While the Trump administration's policy uncertainty is mounting, what is apparent is that President Trump will give top priority to maintaining a strong US economy. Although, for example, the Trump administration resumed economic sanctions against Iran on November 5 as predicted in the wake of US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the administration temporarily exempted eight countries and regions including Japan, China, Korea and India from oil sanctions on Iran.
This is because, since the US relationship with Saudi Arabia has deteriorated over the murder of a dissident journalist, the United States cannot anticipate that Saudi Arabia agree to increase its crude oil production to compensate for the market demand for Iranian crude oil. Meanwhile, the exemption of China from sanctions over imports of Iranian oil contradicts with not only President Trump's determination to isolate Iran from the world oil market, but also the enforced US competition policy against China regarding trade, security and high-tech areas. The Trump administration seems to apprehend that crude oil price hike may cool down the global economy including particularly that of the United States. Since the highest priority for Trump is to be re-elected in 2020, maintaining US economic growth is prerequisite for him. Although the Trump administration has recently taken an increasingly tough stance on China, it is yet to see whether the United States will continue a trade war with China at the expense of its economy.
Between Japan and the United States, negotiations on "Trade Agreement on Goods (TAG)" agreed in September 2018 will begin in full. The aim of the United States is not tariffs on Japanese car imports, but the reduction of tariffs on US livestock products for the Japanese market. Japan is suggesting a tariff reduction to the level agreed in the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), from which President Trump eventually withdrew the United States. The bilateral negotiations will become difficult if the United States demands a still larger tariff reduction. As President Trump may deem it vital to be compatible with a bright future he promised for the Midwest voters mentioned earlier, the Trump administration's attitude toward the negotiations is unpredictable.
President Trump's behavior and policies are difficult to discern. Nonetheless, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is exceptionally compatible with President Trump, keeping closer contact with him than any other world leader doing. This is quite advantageous for Japan. As far as security is concerned, the maintenance of the world order without US involvement would be impossible to imagine in the foreseeable future. Aligning with the United States, therefore, Japan should take active efforts in collaboration with the countries concerned for the stabilization of the "Indo-Pacific Region." This will be a realistic option for Japan.
December 2022, Proposal "Defending Our Country – Defense Policy in a New Cold War Era" was announced
- Front Cover
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- How Will "Japan Contingencies" Emerge? Osamu Onoda
- The Japan-US Alliance Revisited: Is it Dependable? Chikako Kawakatsu Ueki
- A New Phase of Defense Diplomacy and Defense Production and Technology Base Ippeita Nishida, Tsuneo Watanabe
- Intelligence Activities in the Post-Ukraine War Era Jun Nagashima
- Responding to the Nuclear Threat Masashi Murano
- No Time to Lose for Improving Japan's Defense Capabilities - Can the JSDF Defend the Homeland? - Ryoichi Oriki
- Toward the Formulation of a New "National Security Strategy" Hideshi Tokuchi
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- October 2022, "China's Policy on the Global South --- China's World View and the Configuration of the US-China Confrontation " written by Shin Kawashima, Professor, the University of Tokyo
- October 2022, "Military Strategy of Xi Jinping's China" written by Bonji Ohara, Senior Fellow, Sasagawa Peace Foundation
- September 2022, " Social Governance by the Communist Party of China: The Present State and the Future Prospects " written by Kazuko Kojima, Professor, Keio University
- September 2022, "The Relationship between Domestic Politics and Diplomacy under the Xi Jinping Administration- Why Were the Large-Scale Military Exercises Decided?" written by Chisako T. Masuo, Professor, Kyushu University
- September 2022, "Xi Jinping's China--- Prospects for Its Climate Change Policy ---" written by Takashi Sekiyama, Associate Professor, The University of Kyoto
- August 2022, " Current Assessment of the Xi Jinping's Rule and Prospects for the Third Term of the Xi Administration " written by Takashi Suzuki, Associate Professor, Aichi Prefectural University
- August 2022, " Economic Challenges Awaiting the Xi Jinping Administration As it Enters its Third Term" written by Toshiya Tsugami, Director, Tsugami Toshiya's Works
- July 2022, "The Russian Invasion of Ukraine and the Future International Legal Order" written by Masahiro Kurosaki, Associate Professor, National Defense Academy
- July 2022, "The Ukraine War and Security in East Asia" written by Narushige Michishita, Vice President, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- July 2022, "How Will the Ukraine War Change the New US-China Cold War?" written by Yasuhiro Matsuda, Professor, the University of Tokyo
- July 2022, "Impact of the Ukraine War on the Global Economy" written by Tatsuhiko Yoshizaki, Chief Economist, Sojitz Research Institute, Ltd.
- June 2022, "Why War Occurs in Europe?--The Structural Transformation of the European Security Order in the Post-Cold War Era --" written by Yuichi Hosoya, Professor, Keio University
- June 2022,"The Russia-Ukrainian War and the Behind-the-Scenes Stance of the United States" "On Economic Security" written by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- June 2022, "The Russia-Ukraine War and NATO", written by Michito Tsuruoka, Associate Professor, Keio University
- June 2022, "The Ukrainian War Viewed from Theories of International Politics" written by Matake Kamiya, Professor, National Defens Academy
- March 2022, "Economic Security Challenges and Cyber Security" written by Jun Osawa, Senior Research Fellow, Nakasone Peace Institute
- March 2022, "On Economic Security" written by Matake Kamiya, Professor, the Ntional Defense Academy
- March 2022, ""Economic Security" and the Review of the 2013 NSS and the Related Strategy Documents" written by Nobushige Takamizawa, Visiting Professor, the University of Tokyo
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- March 2022, "Economic Security in the Free Trade Regime" written by Kazuto Suzuki, Professor, the University of Tokyo
- January 2022, "The 2022 South Korean Presidential Election and the Next Administration's Foreign and Security Policy" written by Junya Nishino, Professor, Keio University
- January 2022, "North Korea's Nuclear and Missile Development and Japan's Defense" written by Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, GRIPS
- January 2022, "What will Become of Japan-South Korea Relations? The 1965 Japan-South Korea Treaty System in Jeopardy" written by Masao Okonogi, Professor Emeritus, Keio University
- December 2021, "Economic and Social Conditions in North Korea and its Relations with South Korea" written by Mitsuhiro Mimura, Chief Research Fellow, The Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia.
- December 2021, "China's Korean Peninsula Policy and North Korea" written by Shin Kawashima, Professor, the University of Tokyo.
- December 2021, "China's Korean Peninsula Policy and North Korea" written by Shunji Hiraiwa, Professor, Nanzan University.
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- September 2021, "The Development of Regional Security Architecture: From Asia-Pacific to Indo-Pacific" written by Ken Jimbo, Professor, Keio University.
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- August 2021, "Security in the Indian Ocean Region---Implication of the Galwan Incident for QUAD in the Indo-Pacific" written by Dr. Satoru Nagao, Fellow (Non-Resident), Hudson Institute.
- August 2021, "Easternization and Security in Asia" written by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation.
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- July 2021, "Myanmar's Security Perceptions and the February 1 Coup d'Etat" written by Yoshihiro Nakanishi, Associate Professor, Kyoto University.
- July 2021, "Australia's Security Perceptions and the "Asia Threat"" written byTomohiko Satake, Senior Fellow, Defense Policy Division, Policy Studies Department, NIDS .
- June 2021, "The Indo-Pacific Regional Architecture: Its Future--- Multipolar Order Beyond US-China Relations ---" by Tsutomu Kikuchi, Professor, Aoyama Gakuin University
- June 2021, "The Quad Plus in the Security of Asia: Its Significance and Outlook" by Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- June 2021, "Indonesian Views and Perceptions on National Security" by Nobuhiro Aizawa, Associate Professor, The Graduate School of Social and Cultural Studies, Kyushu University
- June 2021, "Normalized Tensions in the Cross-Strait Relations--- Structural Changes in Taiwanese Society and the Xi Jinping Administration's Strategic Shift ---" by Yasuhiro Matsuda, Professor, The University of Tokyo
- June 2021, "China's Maritime Strategy and Responses of the United States and Japan" by Yoji Koda, Former Commander in Chief, Self Defense Fleet
- June 2021, "The South China Issues from the Perspective of the International Law Order",by Shigeki Sakamoto, Emeritus Professor, Kobe University
- May 2021, "Indonesian Views and Perceptions on National Security" by Nobuhiro Aizawa, Associate Professor, Kyushu University
- May, 2021, "The Philippine Foreign and Security Policy Perspective" written by Yusuke Takagi Associate Professor,National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
- May, 2021, "Vietnam's Security: Challenges and Responses" written by Tomotaka Shoji Head, Asia and Africa Division, Regional Studies Department, National Institute for Defense Studies
- March, 2021, "Can the Biden Administration Restore America as a Global Leader?" written by Matake Kamiya, Professor, the National Defense Academy of Japan.
- March, 2021, "The Biden Administration and Japan's Security Strategy" written by Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
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- February,2021, "The Biden Administration's Policy toward Russia" written by Taisuke Abiru, Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- January,2021, "Will US Policy Toward China Change?" lectured by Ryo Sahashi, Associate Professor, the University of Tokyo
- January,2021, "How will China View the Biden Administration?" written by Bonji Ohara, Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- January,2021, "An Assessment of the 2020 US Presidential Election－American Democracy Now－" lectured by Fumiaki Kubo, Professor, the University of Tokyo
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- September, 2020, "The Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic and Internationa Relationsl" by Matake Kamiya, Professor, National Defense Academy of Japan
- September, 2020, "The Policy Agenda for the Xi Jinping Administration- COVID-19 Countermeasures and China's International Relations -" by Shin Kawashima, Professor, The University of Tokyo
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- September, 2020, "The EU's Response to COVID-19 and International Relations" by Yuichi Hosoya, Professor, Keio University
- August, 2020, "The Corona Crisis Seen from a Macroeconomic Perspective" written by Motoshige Itoh, Professor Emeritus, The University of Tokyo
- August, 2020, "The Coronavirus Pandemic and Japan's Infectious Disease Control" written by Takashi Mihara, Senior Research Fellow, NLI Research Institute
- August, 2020, "Infectious Disease Crisis Control in Japan- Recommendations on an Exit Strategy -" written by Kazumasa Oguro, Professor, Hosei University
- August, 2020, "Security against Infectious Disease Threats --- Policy Responses Abroad" written by Takashi Sekiyama, Associate Professor, Kyoto University
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- June 2020,"Destabilization in the Middle East and its Impacts on Japan's Energy Security" written by Amane Kobayashi, Research Fellow, The Institute of Energy Economics
- May 2020: Urgent Recommendations "Toward a V-shaped Recovery after the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic "Coronavirus Testing for All" --- the First Step of the Next Phase"
- May 2020: "US Diplomacy toward Iran: Economic Sanctions as a Diplomatic Tool" Hiroki Sugita Columnist, Kyodo News
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- "The SDF Dispatches to the Middle East --- History and Significance" Ippeita Nishida Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- March 2020, "Space and Security" Kazuto Suzuki Professor, Hokkaido University
- March 2020, "The US Security Space Policy --- With a Focus on the Establishment of Two Space Forces" Yasuhito Fukushima Chief Researcher, The National Institute for Defense Studies
- March 2020, "China's Recent Activities in Space and Cyberspace" Bonji Ohara Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- March 2020, "Environmental Security and Japan" Takashi Sekiyama Associate Professor, Kyoto University
- March 2020, "Changes in Global Environment and Security --- US Security Strategy" Hideshi Tokuchi Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)
- February 2020, "Cyberspace Security" Motohiro Tsuchiya Professor, Keio University
- February 2020, "Japan's Space and Cyberspace Policy" Yukinari Hirose Former President of the National Institute for Defense Studies
- December 2019, "The US-China Confrontation --- Where Will Hegemony Reside Next?" Akio Takahara Professor, the University of Tokyo
- December 2019, "Challenges Facing the Chinese Economy" Osamu Tanaka Chief Senior Researcher, Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO
- December 2019, "US Strategic Perception on China: Implications for US Allied Partners" Tsuneo Watanabe Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- November 2019, "The Xi Jinping Administration's View of the International Order– China's emphasis on United Nations diplomacy and liberal economic policies−" Shin Kawashima, Professor, the University of Tokyo
- November 2019, "The Future of China's Security Strategy" Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- November 2019, "China --- Its Confidence and Anxiety" Bonji Ohara, Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- August 2019: Several Perspectives on the Korean Peninsula Issue--- The Deteriorating Japan-South Korea Relationship and the Uncertain Denuclearization of North Korea --- By Masahiro Akiyama Chairman, the SSDP
- July 2019, "An Outlook on the Denuclearization of North Korea--- What is the Stance of North Korea?---", Junya Nishino, Professor, Keio University
- July 2019, "An Outlook on the Denuclearization of North Korea --- How will the US move?", Narushige Michishita, Vice President, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- July 2019, "Discussion on Denuclearization of North Korea", SSDP Discussion Meeting on May 8, 2019
- May 2019: "Current Status and Prospects of South Korea and Japan's Frictions over History: How to address the Judicial Problems", Masao Okonogi, Professor Emeritus, Keio University
- May 2019: "South Korea and Japan's Frictions over History" (Comments), Junya Nishino, Professor, Keio University
- May 2019: Japan and South Korea Relationships (Question & Answer)
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- March 2019: "The "Modi diplomacy" in the History of Indian diplomacy--- Departure from or maintenance of the traditional diplomacy? ---" written by Toru Ito, The National Defense Academy of Japan
- February 2019: Dynamics of Indian Politics and the 2019 General Elections, written by Chiharu Takenaka, Professor of Rikkyo University
- February 2019: "Cooperative Strategy" to Realize "Competitive Strategy"--- The composite structure of Japan's "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" strategy (vision) ---, written by Matake Kamiya, Professor at The National Defense Academy of Japan
- January 2019:, A paper, "How will the US midterm elections results affect the Trump administration's foreign policy for 2019?" written by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- January 2019:, A paper, "The Present and Future of the International Trade Order" , written by Akihiko Tamura, Professor, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- December 2018: The US-China Competition and Japan, written by Ryo Sahashi, Professor at Kanagawa University
- December 2018: An Outlook for the US-China Trade War―What makes the two economically interdependent superpowers confront each other?―, written by Takashi Sekiyama, Associate professor at Toyo University
- September 2018: Proposal, "The Denuclearization of North Korea and the Restoration of Peace in the Korean Peninsula― Correct Perceptions and Eight Proposals on Japan's North Korea Diplomacy－" edited by the Society of Security and Diplomatic Policy Studies
- September 2018: "The Taiwan Policy of the Xi Jinping Administration in its Second Term: An Outlook on Cross-Strait Relations in the New Era" written by Yasuhiro Matsuda, Professor of the Tokyo University
- July 2018: "The EU States and Russia on North Korea Issues- Expansion of Influence through Diplomacy: Attempts and Limitations -" lectured by Yuichi Hosoya, Professor of Keio University
- "An Assessment of the US-North Korea Summit and an Outlook for the Future of the Korean Peninsula" lectured by Junya Nishino, Professor of Keio University
- "Korean Peninsula Issue and Japan's Future Security Policy" written by Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow of National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- July 2018: "US North Korea policy affected by personnel changes in the Trump administration" lectured by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation.
- "China-North Korea relationship under Xi Jinping" lectured by Shin Kawashima, Professor of the Tokyo University.
- "North Korean Denuclearization and Russia" lectured by Nobuo Shimotomai, Professor of the Hosei University.
- March 2018: "The Network Hegemony Theory for a Security Architecture in The Asia Pacific Region" lectured by Masahiro Akiyama, Chairman, the Society of Security and Diplomatic Policy Studies
- January 2018: "A Destabilized Middle East" lectured by Koichiro Tanaka, Professor, Keio University
- December 2017: "Problems in Sino-Japanese Relations, 1992-2042" lectured by Ezra F. Vogel, Professor of the Social Sciences Emeritus at Harvard University
- November 2017: "The Future of the Asia-Pacific Region" written by Yoriko Kawaguchi, Fellow, the Meiji Institute for Global Affairs, Former Minister Foreign Affairs
- October 2017: "A New Trend in India's Foreign Policy and Japan" Written by HIROSE,Takako, Professor, Senshu University
- August 2017: "The Shocks that shook the Transatlantic World and their Implication for Japan's Foreign Policy" written by HOSOYA, Yuichi, Professor, Keio University
- August 2017: "Does Economic Interdependence not Encourage Collaboration? ―Thinking Japan-China Relations from an Economic Perspective―" written by Takashi SEKIYAMA, Ph.D., Toyo University
- July 2017: Proposal article "The Trump Administration's Impact on the Cross-Strait Relations" written by Yasuhiro Matsuda, Ph.D.
- June 2017: Proposal article "The outlook for the relationship between two great powers and implications for Japanese diplomacy" written by Professor Shin Kawashima
- May 2017: (Emergency Proposal) Facing the Inconvenient Truth: Re-examining Policy for Peace and Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula (Chief author, Masao Okonogi)
- March 2017: "Economic Influences of the Trump Administration" written by Professor Motoshige Ito
- February, 2017: Proposal article "Trump's Foreign and Security Policy - Unpredictable President, Realistic Secretaries - " written by Mr. Tsuneo Watanabe is posted on the website of SSDP.
- December, 2016: Proposal article "Reconsidering North Korea Policy: How to Deal with a Nuclear Armed Divided States" written by Professor Masao Okonogi is posted on the website of SSDP.
- March 2022, A remembrance seminar "Remembering Professor Ezra Vogel" held on January 17, 2022
- March 2021, Japan-ROK Parliamentary Dialogue -Japan-ROK Cooperation in the Era of US-China Competition- held on March 11, 2021
- December 2020: The report of the Japan-ROK Future Dialogue held on November 21 to discuss "Japan-ROK Cooperation in the Post-Covid-19 Era
- October 2020: "Responses to COVID-19 and Agendas for the Post-COVID-19 Era", A Brief Overview of the Japan-Korea Experts Dialogue held on July 29,30, 2020
- October 2020: "The China-Taiwan Confrontation over Corona Response and Taiwan's Security" written by Makoto Ogata, Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
- May 2020: "Rivalries in the Middle East in New Security Dynamics", Written by Sayed Ghoneim, Major General (retired) of the Egyptian Armed Forces, Chairman, Institute for Global Security & Defence Affairs
- March 2020: The Japan-South Korea Relationship in a Cul-de-Sac--- Where is an Exit ? Masao Okonogi Professor Emeritus, Keio Universit
- December 2019: The Hong Kong Upheaval and the Future of Cross-Straits Relations－The 2019 Japan-Taiwan Strategic Dialogue Report OGATA, Makoto Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
- August 2019: Report; 2019 FUTURE CONSENSUS DIALOGUE --Sustainable Prosperity and Future of Korea-U.S.-Japan Cooperation-- By Future Consensus Institute (Yeosijae)
- June 2019: Report on India – Japan Security Dialogue 2019 by Ms. Vindu Mai Chotani, Ph.D Student, The University of Tokyo
June 2019: Four papers on Japan-India Cooperation submitted to India-Japan Security Dialogue 2019
Japan's Rationale for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision
Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, The Sasakawa Peace Foundation
The Significance and Possibilities of India-Japan Cooperation in the Concept of the Indo-Pacific
Toru ITO Associate Professor, National Defense Academy of Japan
Japan-India Defense Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific Context - Operationalizing the Security Aspect of the Indo-Pacific Vision –
Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)
India-US-Japan Defense Cooperation: What's next?
Dr. Satoru Nagao, Hudson Institute
- Japan's Rationale for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision
- November 2018: "The Present State of the Japanese Economy and Policy Issues" lectured by Motoshige Itoh, Professor Emeritus at the University of Tokyo.
- November 2018: "Expanding Social Security Expenses and Fiscal Reforms" lectured by Kazumasa Oguro, Professor at Hosei University.
- September 2018: "Taiwan Identity and Cross-Strait Relations and Trump's Taiwan Policy and the Future of Taiwan-US Relations-Discussion at The Second Japan-Taiwan Strategic Dialogue (June 21, 2018, Taipei)-" written by OGATA, Makoto
- September 2018: "Japan-Taiwan Dialogue 2018 Minutes", 21st June 2018, Taipei, Taiwan.
- July 2018: Report on The Second Japan – Philippines Strategic Dialogue prepared by Ms. Vindu Mai Chotani, Ph.D. Student, Graduate School of Public Policy, Tokyo University.
- May 2018: "Civilian Control "at Crisis"? – Perhaps Not, for the Case of the Field Sit-reps from SDF's South Sudan Mission" reported by Ippeita Nishida, Research Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- January 2018: "Fukushima, Genki？Project－Young Taiwanese volunteers introduce the facts on Fukushima's revival through documentary films－" reported by OGATA, Makoto, Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
- December 2017: "Commemorating a Quarter Century of Dispatches of the JSDF's PKO Units: Challenges and Possibilities in the Post South Sudan" written by Takayuki Shoji, Lecturer, Nihon University
- November 2017: "19th CCP National Congress" written by Mr. Bonji Ohara, Senior Research Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Fondation
- October 2017: "What is Japan's Role in the Indo-China border conflict?" written by Dr. NGAO,Satoru, Research Fellow, Institute for Future Engineering
- July 2017: "Overview of the Current Situation in Taiwan-" the Naturally Independent Generation" will affect the Taiwan"s politics-" written by Makoto Ogata MGE.(Ret.)
- June 2017: "Japan-U.S. Economic Dialogue" written by Mr.Takaaki Asano
- March 2017: "The Japan-Philippines Strategic Dialogue" written by Mr. Hideshi Tokuchi
- February, 2017: Current topic "The Importance of Japan's Security Role Under Trump" written by Dr. Satoru Nagao is posted on the SSDP website.
- December, 2016: Current topic "Widening Security Task: Will SDF do the Job?" written by Mr. Ippeita Nishida is posted on the SSDP website.
- October 2022, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 3)" - Xi Jinping's China - Politics, Economy, Society and Diplomacy - was published.
- Jun 2022, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 2)" -The Russia-Ukraine War and Its Global Impact- was published.
- March 2022, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 1)"-What is Economic Security?- was published.
- December 2021, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 3 no 4)"-Korean Peninsula Situation- was published.
- September 2021, A research journal "Security Studies vol03 no03" -Asia's Security II- (English edition)
- June 2021, A research journal "Security Studies vol03 no02" -Asia's Security I- (English edition)
- March 2021: Research journal "Security Studies (vol3 no1) "- US Foreign Policy in the Biden Administration / The 2020 US Presidential Election and American Democracy -(English edition)
- December 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no4) "- Normalize Japan-South Korea Relations trough Dialogues -(English edition)
- September 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no3) "-The Novel Coronavirus and Security-(English edition)
- July 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no2) - Middle East Situation and Japan's Security - " (English edition) was published
- May 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no1) - Cyber, Space, Environment and Security - " March 2020 (English edition)
- February 2020, "A research journal "Security Studies (vol1 no4) " (English edition)"
- September 2019: A research journal "Security Studies (vol1 no3) " (English edition)
- August 2019: Korea-Japan Joint Seminar: FUTURE CONSENSUS DIALOGUE
- April 2019: "Security Studies (vol1 no2) April 2019"
- March 2019: A research journal "Security Studies vol1 no01" just published
- February 2019: The Denuclearization of North Korea and the Takeshima Issue
- December 2018: Former Vice Defense Minister Masahiro Akiyama's Memoirs (An Ad)
- November 2018: Participation in the Future Consensus Forum held in Beijing
- September 2018: "2018 Indo-Pacific Security Dialogue" reported by Masahiro Akiyama
- 2017 December: "The Butterfly Project-A possibility of showing a solution to the North Korea problem-"
- October 2017: Campaign on the problems with North Korea
- August 2017: A New Containment Policy Strategy
- June 2017: Korean peninsla
- March 2017: President Duterte
- February, 2017: Kazakhstan
- November, 2016: Participated in Astana Club 2016 held in Kazakhstan on November 14- 16, 2016.