The Ukraine War and Security in East Asia
This paper attempts to assess the impacts of the Ukraine war on Security in East Asia, focusing on the Korean Peninsula and the Taiwan Strait. Specifically, significant impacts will be distinguished as positive or negative and will be discussed under three headings: trans-regional issues, the Korean Peninsula, and the Taiwan Strait.
This paper aims to create a certain consensus in the Japanese security community on the impact assessment of the Ukraine war. For this reason, it ventures to distinctly categorize such elements as hard to assess as either positive or negative. The present author hopes that this will facilitate discussion among SSDP associates and help them better understand the current topic. By way of stimulating debates, this paper first enumerates negative elements as "bad news" and then positive elements as "good news."
A strategy is always paradoxical, and failure often leads to success or vice versa. Therefore, the following assessments are tentative ones as of writing this (May 2022) and are subject to change in the future.
1. Trans-Regional Issues
(1) Bad News
Dictators' Ability of Judgment
The most horrid implication of the Ukraine war for East Asian security is that the personal judgment of a leader with dictatorial power played a central role in the ongoing development of the current war. Given the Korean Peninsula situation, the importance of this lesson is evident. A simple comparison may reveal several similarities between Putin and Kim Jong-un. First, both leaders have thoroughly suppressed domestic opposition and acquired such a position allowing them almost a free hand to implement their policies. Second, both leaders have exerted military force ignoring international opinion, and have used the threat of military force as a policy tool. Lastly, both leaders have been considered adept at balancing their audacious military and diplomatic actions and self-restraint without trespassing the red line. Though not going so far as Putin and Kim Jong-un, Xi Jinping has likewise been dictatorial and has used force to change the status quo in the East and South China Seas while avoiding a full-scale military confrontation.
However, the Ukraine war has demonstrated that a leader who appeared to be rational could make irrational decisions and take actions tragic not only for his own but also for other countries. The countries concerned will have to delve into the persons of the North Korean and Chinese leaders by various means to probe their mode of thinking and behavior, psychological and state of health, and to explore means to restrain their behavior. To this end, at least three issues will need to be studied. The first is a study of the particular circumstance that would lead autocratic leaders to resort to the use of force. Since extensive research on the causes of the Ukraine war has already been underway, it is now necessary to add to such research the findings of regional studies in order to advance specific arguments. Apart from the cogency of such explanations as "NATO's eastward expansion caused the Ukraine war," if Putin felt that NATO's eastward expansion made him lose face, such feelings of his might have contributed to the outbreak of the ongoing war. This is also a theme demanding some research.
Second, research into mistakes committed by autocratic leaders. Since Putin, Kim Jong-un, and Xi Jinping have all been top leaders for a considerable time, a tolerable number of examples may be available. For instance, Kim Jong-un made an apparent misstep on the occasion of the 2019 Hanoi summit: he trumpeted the event before his departure for the Vietnamese capital and put himself at a disadvantageous position in the negotiations by raising expectations at home. This episode exposed that Kim Jong-un was unaccustomed to negotiating.
Third, it is also necessary to study how to get a dictatorial leader to make concessions while allowing him to save face. A decisive situation is about to arise, where Putin's fate may depend on the outcome of the Ukraine war. How to get him to accept peace is literally a crucial question. In what situation will a leader of a country think that he has lost face? This is a question related to the culture and political environment of the country. This theme also deserves some interdisciplinary research.
The Success of the "Ukrainian Model"
In the Ukraine war, Western countries have taken the approach of achieving the goal of defending a friendly nation without engaging in direct military intervention. In peacetime, this approach comprises capacity building through arms support, military training, and cybersecurity support, while in wartime, it focuses on arms support and intelligence provision. In addition, economic sanctions and diplomatic pressure would be mobilized against the aggressor country to reduce its ability to continue warfare. This approach to be named a "Ukrainian model" is suitable for balancing the national interests and commitments of the countries involved and is, as a result, highly sustainable. This is why international support for Ukraine is maintained at a consistently high level as of May 2022.
On the other hand, the success of the "Ukraine model" raises a concern about future US security commitments to the Indo-Pacific region. Unlike the case of Ukraine, the United States maintains direct military commitments to its allies and friends in Asia. However, if the "Ukraine model" proved to be practical, this could amplify in America the public's voice to recommend "a defense without direct US military involvement." The direction of encouraging allies and friends to further defense efforts while avoiding direct US military involvement coincides with the views of former President Trump. His opinions did not gain widespread support in the United States because Trump was an unstable leader. Yet, if a more stable leader comes up with a similar argument, such a discourse could gain substantial support and destabilize US commitments to the security of the Korean Peninsula and Taiwan.
(2) Good News
Increasing Awareness of Nuclear Threats
Russia's insinuation of the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons in the Ukraine war has generated a world-wide trend to seriously consider the potential use of such weapons and how to address nuclear intimidation. The fact that the discussion now involves not only experts but also citizens has had an eminently positive effect on the future security of East Asia.
Even before Russia hinted at using nuclear weapons in the Ukraine war, there were earnest discussions among experts about the possibility of nuclear use and threats with nuclear weapons. The concept of Russia's "escalation deterrence" strategy now widely known to the public, and the US nuclear posture, which has vacillated under US administrations from Obama to Biden, were already discussed among many experts. Some argue that the Ukraine war has increased the likelihood that nuclear weapons will be put to actual use or be used as a tool of intimidation. However, such a possibility had been already noted before the war. The Ukraine war has not enhanced the role of nuclear weapons but confirmed their enhanced role. Although their role had expanded even before the Ukraine war, it was not necessarily noted by many. The Ukrainian war has made that fact widely known and shared.
Thus, such topics as the use of nuclear weapons, nuclear strategy, and the issues of nuclear deterrence and extended deterrence have come to be discussed not only by a limited number of experts but also by average citizens. Because of their destructive power, nuclear weapons are not easy to use, and therefore, in times of crisis or war, they tend to function exclusively through their effects on human psychology. In recent years, the striking development of social media has made it impossible for state elites to monopolize information, and the psychological effects of nuclear threats in times of crisis and war are likely to be amplified by new media. Therefore, it is also essential for state elites, experts, and average citizens to understand the role of nuclear weapons as a means of intimidation and their limitations, if we want to reduce the effect of nuclear intimidation at a time of crisis and war. If, for example, average citizens of a country intimidated by nuclear weapons were able to reason in the following way, the usefulness of nuclear weapons as a means of intimidation would be significantly undermined: "Since hurdles for the actual use of nukes are high, this action of our antagonist may be an intimidation designed to deter US military intervention." "If North Korea used nukes against Japan, the United States would retaliate agisnt it with nukes in some way or another. Therefore, North Korea may pose an ostensible threat by brandishing nukes, but it is unlikely that the North will attack Japan with them."
It is difficult here to make a clear judgment as to in which case nuclear weapons are more useful --- Ukraine or East Asia. Factors that increase the usefulness of nuclear weapons in East Asia include: 1) Nuclear weapons are easier to use at sea, where the risk of collateral damage is less. Since a greater portion of US forces in East Asia is deployed at sea, they are vulnerable to nuclear attack, whereas North Korean and Chinese forces are mainly ground forces. 2) North Korea and China possess intermediate-range nuclear weapons, while the United States does not. 3) North Korea is inferior to the United States and South Korea in conventional forces; therefore, it has a high incentive to use nuclear weapons. In relation to 3), North Korea announced in 2017 that its Strategic Force Commander was working on a plan for an encircling fire on Guam. It is also noteworthy that in April of this year, Kim Yo-jong stated, "In a war situation... our nuclear combat arms will be mobilized to seize the initiative in the early stages of the war, discourage the opponent's will to war, prevent a prolonged war, and preserve our military strength." A nuclear use scenario that once attracted attention during the Cold War was that the Soviet Union could detonate tactical nuclear weapons at sea to hinder Japan's assistance to the United States. An analogous scenario is once again taking on reality.
Conversely, among factors curbing the utility of nuclear weapons in East Asia are 1) at present, the US nuclear capabilities are overwhelmingly superior to those of North Korea and China; 2) China would need to conduct a landing operation using surface vessels to occupy Taiwan, but such action will become an easy target for US tactical nuclear weapons; and 3) in East Asia, due to the existence of the USFK and USFJ, it would be much harder for China to prevent US military intervention through the use or threat of nuclear weapons than for Russia to attempt to prevent NATO intervention in the Ukraine war. In any case, these and other factors must be taken into account when considering what role nuclear weapons will play in the future security of East Asia.
Limitations of Hybrid Warfare
The Ukraine war has revealed that hybrid warfare thought to be Russia's and China's forte, is not necessarily favorable to them. It is, at present, difficult to distinguish the true causes of Ukraine's successes and Russia's failures. But when it comes to cyberwarfare, Ukraine has obviously strengthened its cybersecurity countermeasures with the support of NATO countries, achieving substantial results. Ukraine learned much from the NotPetya malware attack that the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (GRU) launched in 2017, causing severe damage to Ukraine. This suggests that 1) cyber security countermeasures, if steadily implemented, would become quite effective in a relatively short period like five years, and 2) Russia and China alarmed their adversaries through active cyber attacks during peacetime, thus inviting negative consequences upon themselves in a time of war.
2. Korean Peninsula
(1) Bad News
Russia's Intensified Support for North Korea
A more immediate, short-term impact of the Ukraine war would take the form of Russia's intensified support for North Korea. In March of this year, North Korea opposed a UN resolution condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine (five against: Russia, Belarus, Syria, North Korea, and Eritrea). It can be surmised that North Korea supports Russia in expectation of or in return for a promise for some quid pro quo. Reportedly, Russian Defense Minister Shoigu visited China and North Korea in March and asked them to provide ammunition and missiles, to which North Korea agreed.
Russia will survive the Ukraine war but weakened militarily and economically and will have no choice but to strengthen its ties with North Korea to compensate for its disadvantageous military balance with the West and its diplomatic isolation. North Korea would also benefit from military, economic, and diplomatic Russian support. Especially an embargo on Russian coal and oil will create a large surplus of these resources; access to such surplus resources would benefit North Korea to a great measure.
The expected recession in Russia would adversely affect North Korea's foreign currency earnings from its workers in the country. An estimate says that about 100,000 North Korean workers overseas earn approximately $500 million a year. About 30,000 of them seem to work in Russia; a simple calculation would yield an income of $150 million. Overall, North Korea will fare well despite reductions in the incomes of their workers in Russia.
On the diplomatic front, when in May 2022, the UN Security Council voted on a resolution to strengthen sanctions against North Korea in response to the country's launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), Russia and China exercised their veto rights and rejected the resolution. It was the first time that a draft resolution on sanctions against North Korea was vetoed. Similarly, Russia and North Korea will likely continue to help each other. For the time being, North Korea will be able to conduct its nuclear and missile tests without worrying about the possibility of tougher sanctions by the United Nations.
Lowered Hurdles for North Korea's Military Provocations
In recent years there have been concerns about a "paradox of stability and instability" that North Korea's increased nuclear and missile capabilities would raise a likelihood that the North would consider a limited war as a realistic option. This refers to the phenomenon that as both North Korea and the United States and South Korea come to attain a certain level of nuclear and missile capabilities, mutual deterrence will work to reduce the likelihood of a full-scale war on the Korean Peninsula, whereas the assumption that "the possibility of escalation into a full-scale conflict is low" will make it easier for North Korea to launch a limited attack on South Korea.
Thus, concerns have risen about the occurrence of limited armed attacks by North Korea, resulting in warfare between the two Koreas. The outbreak of the Ukraine war is feared to lower barriers for the limited use of force. There is an imaginable risk scenario that North Korea will fire artillery near Seoul; South Korea will retaliate by likewise firing artillery back into North Korea. If the "paradox of stability and instability" works, such military engagement will not escalate. But the risk of escalation cannot be entirely excluded but demands persistent attention.
(2) Good News
Significance of US Military Presence and Offensive Capabilities: Difference between Ukraine and South Korea
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has raised security concerns in South Korea exposed to military threats from North Korea. Analogous to the relationship between Ukraine and Russia, North and South Korea share a land border; North Korea resembles Russia as they possess numerous artillery guns, rocket launchers, and missiles. According to the United Nations, the death toll of Ukrainian civilians reached at least 3,974 as of May 25, 2022; the actual number of deaths are estimated to be considerably larger than this figure. This is bad news for South Korea, menaced by North Korea's artillery guns and rocket launchers.
South Korea differs from Ukraine in that it possesses a strong counterattack capability. Specifically, South Korea has an impressive array of fighter-bombers (30 F-4s, 162 F-16s, 59 F-15s, 36 F-35s, and 60 FA-50s), as well as a total of more than 1,000 missiles, including ballistic missiles Hyunmoo-2 (range 300 km+) and cruise missiles Hyunmoo-3 (range 500 to 1,500 km) --- on top of counter-fire batteries capable of destroying North Korean artillery and rockets, and ballistic radars. Furthermore, South Korea plans to deploy a total of 2,000 ballistic and cruise missiles by 2022, which, if realized, would reportedly enable the country to eliminate 70% of North Korea's missile and long-range artillery capabilities in 24 hours. Development of a "South Korean Iron Dome" to counter North Korea's long-range artillery will be completed in 2029 and will become operational around 2035. Thus, in the event of a North Korean attack, South Korea would be able to conduct a mighty counterattack operation. Compared to Ukraine, South Korea has far more reliable deterrent and response capabilities.
3. Taiwan Strait
(1) Bad News
Emergence of a "New Axis of Evil"
The Ukraine war has strengthened solidarity between China, Russia, and North Korea. An "Axis of Evil 2.0" emerging, as a result, weighs on Taiwan's security. Although North Korea is making progress in its nuclear and missile development, its overall national strength is ebbing due to sanctions, Coronavirus infections, natural disasters, etc. Russia's national strength will also likely decline significantly due to the Ukraine war. On the other hand, China's influence over North Korea and Russia will increase; China will capitalize on this situation to utilize North Korea and Russia as instruments for its military and foreign policy.
If a China-Taiwan conflict occurs in the Taiwan Strait under the conditions of China's increasing influence over North Korea and Russia, North Korea may create a crisis in the Korean Peninsula while Russia may increase tensions in the Northwest Pacific, thereby creating a situation in which the United States and Japan will be forced to respond simultaneously on three fronts. NATO is fundamentally an alliance to respond to a single threat, Russia, whereas the Japan-US alliance must keep an eye on the three countries: Russia, North Korea, and China. Russia's threats in the Far East are limited compared to threats from North Korea and China. Nevertheless, if China, Russia, and North Korea jointly forge an "Axis of Evil 2.0" and if the risk of horizontal escalation increases in a Taiwan Strait contingency, this will bring about negative consequences for peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.
(2) Good News
Strengthening US-Japan Commitment to Taiwan's Defense
At the May 23 Japan-US Summit meeting, the two leaders reaffirmed the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, stating that they are "an indispensable element in security and prosperity in the international community." In addition, in a joint news conference, the US president was asked if he was willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan. "Yes," he replied, adding that "it's a commitment we made." Japan has so far asked the United States to clarify its position on the defense of Taiwan; President Biden has this time demonstrated a strong will to defend Taiwan.
There are pros and cons to President Biden's statement; there are concerns that it may further harden China's attitude. For both Japan and the United States, the risk of getting involved in a China-Taiwan conflict has increased. Many also apprehend the risk that Taiwan may neglect its defense efforts helped by the strengthened US-Japan commitments or that discourses favoring "Taiwan's independence" may spread. Unless these paradoxical results actually come out, the strengthening of commitment of both Japan and the United States, especially that of the United States, to Taiwan's defense can be deemed positive.
However, it should be noted that after the outbreak of the Ukraine war, more Twainese citizens have come to downplay the possibility of US military intervention in a Taiwan Strait dispute. According to a public opinion poll conducted by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation, answering the question: "If China attacked Taiwan, would the United States deploy troops to defend Taiwan?" 65.0% of respondents said "yes" and 28.5% "no" as of September 2021, whereas as of April 2022, 36.3% of respondents said "yes" and 53.8% "no." 1 This reversal suggests that the Ukraine war has made the Taiwanese more skeptical of the US military commitment. The present author believes that these perceptions may rather urge Taiwan to improve its defense capabilities; this trend may also serve as a positive factor in realizing peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.
Strengthening Taiwan's Defense Strategy
The outcome of the Ukraine war and the clarified US commitment to the war may affect Taiwan's defense strategy. Currently, a tug-of-war is underway over Taiwan's defense strategy between the "Overall Defense Concept," which seeks to strengthen Taiwan's deterrence and response capabilities by adopting an asymmetric response to Chinese threats, and a more traditional symmetric strategy. On the assumption that the military balance in the Taiwan Strait will continue to deteriorate due to China's military buildup, the "Overall Defense Concept" aims to frustrate a full-scale Chinese invasion of Taiwan by such means as the use of geographical advantages and civilian infrastructures, alongside the improvement of asymmetric warfare capabilities. Militarily, an emphasis is placed on maritime denial by missile boats in the adjacent waters around Taiwan and on the destruction of Chinese forces in Taiwan's coastal areas by using mines, firearms, and missiles. Taiwan's FY2022 defense budget focuses on anti-ship cruise missiles, surface-to-air missiles, the 500-ton Tuo Chiang-class corvettes, and ground-based Harpoon anti-ship missiles. 2 The "Overall Defense Concept" is called "Fortress Taiwan" by the US Department of Defense. The US Congress pledged to Taiwan an enormous amount of support to realize it. The Biden administration has already publicized arms sales to Taiwan, including M109A6 155mm self-propelled howitzers. Taiwan is also seeking the purchase of the M139 Air Volcano Mine system. 3
Meanwhile, the mainstream faction of the Taiwanese military and others advocate more traditional defense force development and defense strategies, taking the lead in discussions about national defense. Behind their opinions in favor of traditional defense force development and defense strategies are the beliefs that 1) defense force development focused on asymmetric warfare capabilities will promote Taiwan's dependence on the United States and reduce its autonomy; 2) as a result, Taiwan will remain without the capability to attack mainland China, and 3) there are limitations in addressing gray-zone situations. Taiwan is improving its symmetrical warfare capabilities, including long-range surface-to-surface missiles, as well.
At this point in time, the "lessons" from the Ukraine war are not manifest. The success of Ukraine's response in the early stages of the war appears to suggest the effectiveness of asymmetric strategies like the "Overall Defense Concept." In the Taiwan Strait contingency, too, if Taiwan does not surrender in a short time but carries on defensive operations until the United States and Japan become ready for rescue, a situation similar to one that we are now witnessing in Ukraine will evolve. In this regard, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Millie stated, "The best defense of Taiwan is done by the Taiwanese. We can certainly help them. This is being done in Ukraine, for example, and I think there are a lot of lessons that are coming out of the Ukraine (sic) that China is taking very, very seriously." "… the best deterrent is to make sure that deterrent (sic) by denial, to make sure that the Chinese know that if they were to attack Taiwan, it is a very, very difficult objective to take." However, looking at the battle in eastern Ukraine, the Ukrainian side, which lacks offensive capabilities, is forced to fight mainly on the defensive and to suffer heavy civilian casualties. If China, unlike Russia, adopts a long-term strategy of exerting constant pressure in peacetime to mentally exhaust the Taiwanese people, then the effectiveness of a denial approach may be questionable.
(Vice President, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies)
(Translation by Tsutomu Inuzuka)
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- January,2021, "Will US Policy Toward China Change?" lectured by Ryo Sahashi, Associate Professor, the University of Tokyo
- January,2021, "How will China View the Biden Administration?" written by Bonji Ohara, Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- January,2021, "An Assessment of the 2020 US Presidential Election－American Democracy Now－" lectured by Fumiaki Kubo, Professor, the University of Tokyo
- January,2021, "Two Trumpian Mysteries－Why did Trump win over 70 million votes? Why is his outrageous behavior unchecked?－" lectured by Kazuhiro Maeshima, Professor, Sophia University
- September, 2020, "The Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic and Internationa Relationsl" by Matake Kamiya, Professor, National Defense Academy of Japan
- September, 2020, "The Policy Agenda for the Xi Jinping Administration- COVID-19 Countermeasures and China's International Relations -" by Shin Kawashima, Professor, The University of Tokyo
- "Control in the United States and International Relations" by Koji Murata, Professor, Doshisha University
- September, 2020, "The EU's Response to COVID-19 and International Relations" by Yuichi Hosoya, Professor, Keio University
- August, 2020, "The Corona Crisis Seen from a Macroeconomic Perspective" written by Motoshige Itoh, Professor Emeritus, The University of Tokyo
- August, 2020, "The Coronavirus Pandemic and Japan's Infectious Disease Control" written by Takashi Mihara, Senior Research Fellow, NLI Research Institute
- August, 2020, "Infectious Disease Crisis Control in Japan- Recommendations on an Exit Strategy -" written by Kazumasa Oguro, Professor, Hosei University
- August, 2020, "Security against Infectious Disease Threats --- Policy Responses Abroad" written by Takashi Sekiyama, Associate Professor, Kyoto University
- June 2020,"Transformation of the International Order in the Middle East--- Varying Degrees of "Stateness" and Three Directions of the New Order" written by Satoshi Ikeuchi, Professor, Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo
- June 2020,"Destabilization in the Middle East and its Impacts on Japan's Energy Security" written by Amane Kobayashi, Research Fellow, The Institute of Energy Economics
- May 2020: Urgent Recommendations "Toward a V-shaped Recovery after the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic "Coronavirus Testing for All" --- the First Step of the Next Phase"
- May 2020: "US Diplomacy toward Iran: Economic Sanctions as a Diplomatic Tool" Hiroki Sugita Columnist, Kyodo News
- "Russian Factors in the Middle East" Taisuke Abiru Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- "The SDF Dispatches to the Middle East --- History and Significance" Ippeita Nishida Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- March 2020, "Space and Security" Kazuto Suzuki Professor, Hokkaido University
- March 2020, "The US Security Space Policy --- With a Focus on the Establishment of Two Space Forces" Yasuhito Fukushima Chief Researcher, The National Institute for Defense Studies
- March 2020, "China's Recent Activities in Space and Cyberspace" Bonji Ohara Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- March 2020, "Environmental Security and Japan" Takashi Sekiyama Associate Professor, Kyoto University
- March 2020, "Changes in Global Environment and Security --- US Security Strategy" Hideshi Tokuchi Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)
- February 2020, "Cyberspace Security" Motohiro Tsuchiya Professor, Keio University
- February 2020, "Japan's Space and Cyberspace Policy" Yukinari Hirose Former President of the National Institute for Defense Studies
- December 2019, "The US-China Confrontation --- Where Will Hegemony Reside Next?" Akio Takahara Professor, the University of Tokyo
- December 2019, "Challenges Facing the Chinese Economy" Osamu Tanaka Chief Senior Researcher, Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO
- December 2019, "US Strategic Perception on China: Implications for US Allied Partners" Tsuneo Watanabe Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- November 2019, "The Xi Jinping Administration's View of the International Order– China's emphasis on United Nations diplomacy and liberal economic policies−" Shin Kawashima, Professor, the University of Tokyo
- November 2019, "The Future of China's Security Strategy" Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- November 2019, "China --- Its Confidence and Anxiety" Bonji Ohara, Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- August 2019: Several Perspectives on the Korean Peninsula Issue--- The Deteriorating Japan-South Korea Relationship and the Uncertain Denuclearization of North Korea --- By Masahiro Akiyama Chairman, the SSDP
- July 2019, "An Outlook on the Denuclearization of North Korea--- What is the Stance of North Korea?---", Junya Nishino, Professor, Keio University
- July 2019, "An Outlook on the Denuclearization of North Korea --- How will the US move?", Narushige Michishita, Vice President, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- July 2019, "Discussion on Denuclearization of North Korea", SSDP Discussion Meeting on May 8, 2019
- May 2019: "Current Status and Prospects of South Korea and Japan's Frictions over History: How to address the Judicial Problems", Masao Okonogi, Professor Emeritus, Keio University
- May 2019: "South Korea and Japan's Frictions over History" (Comments), Junya Nishino, Professor, Keio University
- May 2019: Japan and South Korea Relationships (Question & Answer)
- March 2019: "The Present State and Prospects of the Indian Economy and Economic Policies" written by Koji Kobayashi, Senior Economist Mizuho Research Institute Ltd.
- March 2019: "The "Modi diplomacy" in the History of Indian diplomacy--- Departure from or maintenance of the traditional diplomacy? ---" written by Toru Ito, The National Defense Academy of Japan
- February 2019: Dynamics of Indian Politics and the 2019 General Elections, written by Chiharu Takenaka, Professor of Rikkyo University
- February 2019: "Cooperative Strategy" to Realize "Competitive Strategy"--- The composite structure of Japan's "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" strategy (vision) ---, written by Matake Kamiya, Professor at The National Defense Academy of Japan
- January 2019:, A paper, "How will the US midterm elections results affect the Trump administration's foreign policy for 2019?" written by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- January 2019:, A paper, "The Present and Future of the International Trade Order" , written by Akihiko Tamura, Professor, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- December 2018: The US-China Competition and Japan, written by Ryo Sahashi, Professor at Kanagawa University
- December 2018: An Outlook for the US-China Trade War―What makes the two economically interdependent superpowers confront each other?―, written by Takashi Sekiyama, Associate professor at Toyo University
- September 2018: Proposal, "The Denuclearization of North Korea and the Restoration of Peace in the Korean Peninsula― Correct Perceptions and Eight Proposals on Japan's North Korea Diplomacy－" edited by the Society of Security and Diplomatic Policy Studies
- September 2018: "The Taiwan Policy of the Xi Jinping Administration in its Second Term: An Outlook on Cross-Strait Relations in the New Era" written by Yasuhiro Matsuda, Professor of the Tokyo University
- July 2018: "The EU States and Russia on North Korea Issues- Expansion of Influence through Diplomacy: Attempts and Limitations -" lectured by Yuichi Hosoya, Professor of Keio University
- "An Assessment of the US-North Korea Summit and an Outlook for the Future of the Korean Peninsula" lectured by Junya Nishino, Professor of Keio University
- "Korean Peninsula Issue and Japan's Future Security Policy" written by Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow of National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- July 2018: "US North Korea policy affected by personnel changes in the Trump administration" lectured by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation.
- "China-North Korea relationship under Xi Jinping" lectured by Shin Kawashima, Professor of the Tokyo University.
- "North Korean Denuclearization and Russia" lectured by Nobuo Shimotomai, Professor of the Hosei University.
- March 2018: "The Network Hegemony Theory for a Security Architecture in The Asia Pacific Region" lectured by Masahiro Akiyama, Chairman, the Society of Security and Diplomatic Policy Studies
- January 2018: "A Destabilized Middle East" lectured by Koichiro Tanaka, Professor, Keio University
- December 2017: "Problems in Sino-Japanese Relations, 1992-2042" lectured by Ezra F. Vogel, Professor of the Social Sciences Emeritus at Harvard University
- November 2017: "The Future of the Asia-Pacific Region" written by Yoriko Kawaguchi, Fellow, the Meiji Institute for Global Affairs, Former Minister Foreign Affairs
- October 2017: "A New Trend in India's Foreign Policy and Japan" Written by HIROSE,Takako, Professor, Senshu University
- August 2017: "The Shocks that shook the Transatlantic World and their Implication for Japan's Foreign Policy" written by HOSOYA, Yuichi, Professor, Keio University
- August 2017: "Does Economic Interdependence not Encourage Collaboration? ―Thinking Japan-China Relations from an Economic Perspective―" written by Takashi SEKIYAMA, Ph.D., Toyo University
- July 2017: Proposal article "The Trump Administration's Impact on the Cross-Strait Relations" written by Yasuhiro Matsuda, Ph.D.
- June 2017: Proposal article "The outlook for the relationship between two great powers and implications for Japanese diplomacy" written by Professor Shin Kawashima
- May 2017: (Emergency Proposal) Facing the Inconvenient Truth: Re-examining Policy for Peace and Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula (Chief author, Masao Okonogi)
- March 2017: "Economic Influences of the Trump Administration" written by Professor Motoshige Ito
- February, 2017: Proposal article "Trump's Foreign and Security Policy - Unpredictable President, Realistic Secretaries - " written by Mr. Tsuneo Watanabe is posted on the website of SSDP.
- December, 2016: Proposal article "Reconsidering North Korea Policy: How to Deal with a Nuclear Armed Divided States" written by Professor Masao Okonogi is posted on the website of SSDP.
- Taiwan-Japan Round Table on August 24th, at Capital Tokyu Hotel
- Japan-Korea Political Leaders Dialogue was held on February 10th,2023 at International House of Japan
- March 2022, A remembrance seminar "Remembering Professor Ezra Vogel" held on January 17, 2022
- March 2021, Japan-ROK Parliamentary Dialogue -Japan-ROK Cooperation in the Era of US-China Competition- held on March 11, 2021
- December 2020: The report of the Japan-ROK Future Dialogue held on November 21 to discuss "Japan-ROK Cooperation in the Post-Covid-19 Era
- October 2020: "Responses to COVID-19 and Agendas for the Post-COVID-19 Era", A Brief Overview of the Japan-Korea Experts Dialogue held on July 29,30, 2020
- October 2020: "The China-Taiwan Confrontation over Corona Response and Taiwan's Security" written by Makoto Ogata, Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
- May 2020: "Rivalries in the Middle East in New Security Dynamics", Written by Sayed Ghoneim, Major General (retired) of the Egyptian Armed Forces, Chairman, Institute for Global Security & Defence Affairs
- March 2020: The Japan-South Korea Relationship in a Cul-de-Sac--- Where is an Exit ? Masao Okonogi Professor Emeritus, Keio Universit
- December 2019: The Hong Kong Upheaval and the Future of Cross-Straits Relations－The 2019 Japan-Taiwan Strategic Dialogue Report OGATA, Makoto Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
- August 2019: Report; 2019 FUTURE CONSENSUS DIALOGUE --Sustainable Prosperity and Future of Korea-U.S.-Japan Cooperation-- By Future Consensus Institute (Yeosijae)
- June 2019: Report on India – Japan Security Dialogue 2019 by Ms. Vindu Mai Chotani, Ph.D Student, The University of Tokyo
June 2019: Four papers on Japan-India Cooperation submitted to India-Japan Security Dialogue 2019
Japan's Rationale for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision
Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, The Sasakawa Peace Foundation
The Significance and Possibilities of India-Japan Cooperation in the Concept of the Indo-Pacific
Toru ITO Associate Professor, National Defense Academy of Japan
Japan-India Defense Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific Context - Operationalizing the Security Aspect of the Indo-Pacific Vision –
Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)
India-US-Japan Defense Cooperation: What's next?
Dr. Satoru Nagao, Hudson Institute
- Japan's Rationale for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision
- November 2018: "The Present State of the Japanese Economy and Policy Issues" lectured by Motoshige Itoh, Professor Emeritus at the University of Tokyo.
- November 2018: "Expanding Social Security Expenses and Fiscal Reforms" lectured by Kazumasa Oguro, Professor at Hosei University.
- September 2018: "Taiwan Identity and Cross-Strait Relations and Trump's Taiwan Policy and the Future of Taiwan-US Relations-Discussion at The Second Japan-Taiwan Strategic Dialogue (June 21, 2018, Taipei)-" written by OGATA, Makoto
- September 2018: "Japan-Taiwan Dialogue 2018 Minutes", 21st June 2018, Taipei, Taiwan.
- July 2018: Report on The Second Japan – Philippines Strategic Dialogue prepared by Ms. Vindu Mai Chotani, Ph.D. Student, Graduate School of Public Policy, Tokyo University.
- May 2018: "Civilian Control "at Crisis"? – Perhaps Not, for the Case of the Field Sit-reps from SDF's South Sudan Mission" reported by Ippeita Nishida, Research Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- January 2018: "Fukushima, Genki？Project－Young Taiwanese volunteers introduce the facts on Fukushima's revival through documentary films－" reported by OGATA, Makoto, Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
- December 2017: "Commemorating a Quarter Century of Dispatches of the JSDF's PKO Units: Challenges and Possibilities in the Post South Sudan" written by Takayuki Shoji, Lecturer, Nihon University
- November 2017: "19th CCP National Congress" written by Mr. Bonji Ohara, Senior Research Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Fondation
- October 2017: "What is Japan's Role in the Indo-China border conflict?" written by Dr. NGAO,Satoru, Research Fellow, Institute for Future Engineering
- July 2017: "Overview of the Current Situation in Taiwan-" the Naturally Independent Generation" will affect the Taiwan"s politics-" written by Makoto Ogata MGE.(Ret.)
- June 2017: "Japan-U.S. Economic Dialogue" written by Mr.Takaaki Asano
- March 2017: "The Japan-Philippines Strategic Dialogue" written by Mr. Hideshi Tokuchi
- February, 2017: Current topic "The Importance of Japan's Security Role Under Trump" written by Dr. Satoru Nagao is posted on the SSDP website.
- December, 2016: Current topic "Widening Security Task: Will SDF do the Job?" written by Mr. Ippeita Nishida is posted on the SSDP website.
- June 2023,Research journal "Security Studies vol5 no2" (Nuclear Crisis Scenarios Facing Japan and the Outlook of Nuclear Deterrence and Arms Control and Disarmament) in English edition was published.
- March 2023,Research journal "Security Studies vol5 no1" (What Will Happen to European Security?―Facing the War in Ukraine) in English edition was published.
- January 2023, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 4)" - Defending Our Country – Defense Policy in a "New Cold War Era - was published.
- October 2022, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 3)" - Xi Jinping's China - Politics, Economy, Society and Diplomacy - was published.
- Jun 2022, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 2)" -The Russia-Ukraine War and Its Global Impact- was published.
- March 2022, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 1)"-What is Economic Security?- was published.
- December 2021, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 3 no 4)"-Korean Peninsula Situation- was published.
- September 2021, A research journal "Security Studies vol03 no03" -Asia's Security II- (English edition)
- June 2021, A research journal "Security Studies vol03 no02" -Asia's Security I- (English edition)
- March 2021: Research journal "Security Studies (vol3 no1) "- US Foreign Policy in the Biden Administration / The 2020 US Presidential Election and American Democracy -(English edition)
- December 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no4) "- Normalize Japan-South Korea Relations trough Dialogues -(English edition)
- September 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no3) "-The Novel Coronavirus and Security-(English edition)
- July 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no2) - Middle East Situation and Japan's Security - " (English edition) was published
- May 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no1) - Cyber, Space, Environment and Security - " March 2020 (English edition)
- February 2020, "A research journal "Security Studies (vol1 no4) " (English edition)"
- September 2019: A research journal "Security Studies (vol1 no3) " (English edition)
- August 2019: Korea-Japan Joint Seminar: FUTURE CONSENSUS DIALOGUE
- April 2019: "Security Studies (vol1 no2) April 2019"
- March 2019: A research journal "Security Studies vol1 no01" just published
- February 2019: The Denuclearization of North Korea and the Takeshima Issue
- December 2018: Former Vice Defense Minister Masahiro Akiyama's Memoirs (An Ad)
- November 2018: Participation in the Future Consensus Forum held in Beijing
- September 2018: "2018 Indo-Pacific Security Dialogue" reported by Masahiro Akiyama
- 2017 December: "The Butterfly Project-A possibility of showing a solution to the North Korea problem-"
- October 2017: Campaign on the problems with North Korea
- August 2017: A New Containment Policy Strategy
- June 2017: Korean peninsla
- March 2017: President Duterte
- February, 2017: Kazakhstan
- November, 2016: Participated in Astana Club 2016 held in Kazakhstan on November 14- 16, 2016.