Urgent Recommendations1 Toward a V-shaped Recovery after the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic "Coronavirus Testing for All" --- the First Step of the Next Phase

proposal

Urgent Recommendations¹
Toward a V-shaped Recovery after the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic "Coronavirus Testing for All" --- the First Step of the Next Phase

Kajima Institute of International Peace
Group of State Power Studies/Society of Security and Diplomatic Policy Studies
A Group of Like-Minded Supporters

We need an update on the current infection status of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) regularly (once every two weeks). This is essential for both society and individuals to go to the next step --- resume social and economic activities without fear of COVID-19.

Immediate COVID-19 testing for everyone who wishes it. Build a testing capacity of 10 million tests, instead of the current 10 thousand per day.
Covid-19 positive or infected persons must undergo isolation and medical treatment.
False-positive people must be tested again.
With consecutive negative results² people can resume social and economic activities. They will not be asked to restrain from going out.

Expansion of coronavirus testing

Development and provision of testing kits with high accuracy and at a low price. Budget 5-9 trillion yen (tentative)³
Improvement of the testing system (including personnel expenses and capacity building of testers) Budget 3 trillion yen (tentative)⁴

To this end, what is necessary is nation-wide efforts of mobilizing wisdom and human resources of public and private sectors (especially industries).

*Reference: With the capacity of testing 10 million tests per day, all Japanese people will be able to receive a test every two weeks before the lapse of six months.⁵

（Proposers）

OGURO,Kazumasa Professor, Hosei University
SEKIYAMA, Takashi Associate professor, The University of Kyoto

（Supporters）

AKIYAMA, Masahiro President, Akiyama Associates
AOKI, Reiko Professor Emeritus, Hitotsubashi University
ASAHINA, Ichiro CEO, Aoyamashachu Co., Ltd.
ATAGO, Nobuyasu Chief Economist, Okasan Securities Co., Ltd.
INAGAKI, Seiichi Former Official, Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare
OGASAWARA, Yasushi Professor, Meiji University
OKONOGI, Masao Professor Emeritus, Keio University
OHARA, Bonji Senior Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation
KAMIYA, Matake Professor, the National Defense Academy
KAMEI, Zentaro Chief Research Fellow, PHP Research Institute
SHIBUYA, Kenji Professor, King's College London
SHIMAZAWA, Manabu Chubu Rejion Institute for Social and Economic Research
SEO, Masaru Director, SmartNews Media Research Institute
TAKAHASHI, Ryohei CEO, NPO Rights
TOKUDA, Yasuharu Director, Muribushi Okinawa
TANAKA, Hideaki Professor, Meiji University
TOKUCHI, Hideshi Visiting Professor, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
NAKAZATO, Toru Associate professor, Sophia University
HAMADA, Toshiaki Visiting Professor, Kanasai University
HARAOKA, Naoyuki Executive Managing Director, Japan Economic Foundation
MATSUI, Koji Professor, Keio University
MORINOBU, Shigeki Research Director, Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research
YAMAMOTO, Hideo Professor, Chuo University
WATANABE, Tsuneo Senior Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation

[1] This document is published under the responsibility of some members of Group of State Power Studies and Society of Security and Diplomatic Policy Studies in the Kajima Institute of International Peace and a group of like-minded supporters. It does not represent the official view of the Kajima Institute of International Peace.
[2] An examinee should undergo multiple tests to address the problem of false positives and false negatives. To overcome the problem of false negatives, for example, an examinee should undergo two consecutive tests. If the examinee is identified as negative twice in a row, he/she may be judged negative. (Although examinees with other results will be judged positive, they can claim testing again.)
[3] Useful tests with high accuracy, including not only the PCR test but also antigen test and antibody test, should be proactively employed. Testing should be undertaken by trained testers. Assuming that the price of a PCR test kit is 15,000 yen, the cost of performing 10 million PCR tests a day using this kit over 365 days will amount to 54.385 trillion yen. To reduce the cost to about 5 trillion yen at the full expense of the national treasury, it will be necessary to lower the testing kit price to about one-tenth. On the other hand, if a Japanese citizen gets tested once every two weeks at his/her own expense, the cost will amount to 360,000 yen per person a year (24 times a year x 15,000 yen). If the testing kit price can be reduced to one-third, the test cost per capita will be 120,000 yen. Again, if the government can subsidize 50% of the cost by outlaying 9 trillion yen, the burden of a Japanese citizen will be reduced to 60,000 yen.
[4] Given that 56.95 million people voted in the 48th House of Representatives general elections on October 22, 2017, 10 million tests per day may be a national event on a scale of one-fifth of the elections. The cost of the general elections is 59.7 billion yen, of which the cost of outsourcing voting and counting work to municipalities is 43.7 billion yen (of which personnel expenses for polling stations are estimated to be 12.9 billion yen). From the above assumptions, the operating costs for clinical laboratories that conduct 10 million tests per day will amount to about 8 billion yen per day (including personnel cost worth about 2.5 billion yen). Therefore, the lab costs for carrying out 10 million tests per day for 365 days is estimated at roughly 3 trillion yen (personnel cost is about 900 billion yen). When it comes to the antigen test --- unlike the PCR test ---, a doctor or a tester can judge the presence of infection on the spot in 10 to 15 minutes. A tester can test 5 samples an hour (40 samples in 8 hours a day); it is necessary to secure 250,000 testers for 10 million tests. Given that the hourly wage of one tester is 1,250 yen (10,000 yen per day), the personnel cost will amount to 2.5 billion yen per day (912.5 billion yen for 365 days).
[5] The 2020 edition of the White Paper on Small and Medium-sized Businesses (approved by the Cabinet on April 20, 2020) points out that the accommodations and food service industries may face serious financial difficulties over the next six months. Besides, according to the FY2018 Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry (Ministry of Finance), cash and deposits held by small and medium-sized businesses with a capital of 10 to 50 million yen can barely cover about three months of operating costs.

proposal

July 2021, "Thailand's Security Policies and Threat Perceptions" written by Saya Kiba, Associate Professor, Komatsu University, Faculty of Intercultural Communication.

July 2021, "Myanmar's Security Perceptions and the February 1 Coup d'Etat" written by Yoshihiro Nakanishi, Associate Professor, Kyoto University.

July 2021, "Australia's Security Perceptions and the "Asia Threat"" written byTomohiko Satake, Senior Fellow, Defense Policy Division, Policy Studies Department, NIDS .

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Kajima Institute of International Peace Group of State Power Studies/Society of Security and Diplomatic Policy Studies A Group of Like-Minded Supporters

Urgent Recommendations¹
Toward a V-shaped Recovery after the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic "Coronavirus Testing for All" --- the First Step of the Next Phase

Kajima Institute of International Peace
Group of State Power Studies/Society of Security and Diplomatic Policy Studies
A Group of Like-Minded Supporters