Normalized Tensions in the Cross-Strait Relations 1
--- Structural Changes in Taiwanese Society and the Xi Jinping Administration's Strategic Shift ---
Professor, The University of Tokyo
Adm. Philip Davidson, commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command told a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing in March 2021, "I worry that they're accelerating their ambitions to supplant the United States and our leadership role in the rules-based international order, which they've long said that they want to do that by 2050. I'm worried about them moving that target closer," he continued. "Taiwan is clearly one of their ambitions before then. And I think the threat is manifest during this decade, in fact in the next six years." 2 The media reported this statement as insinuating that China's use of force against Taiwan might occur by 2027.
China's policy toward Taiwan is one of "peaceful unification; one country, two systems." The first half of the phrase refers to the process of unification, and the second half to the institutional arrangements after unification. China agreed to pursue peaceful unification through talks with the Taiwanese authorities on the premise of "One China." However, in 2019-20, structural changes took place on both sides of the Taiwan Strait --- changes that may overturn that premise. Will China actually resort to use of force? Or, will, once again, the status quo in the Taiwan Strait remain intact this time because China uses military tensions merely as a psychological maneuver? How should Japan behave in this situation? This paper is intended to answer these questions.
1. The Overwhelming Re-election Victory of Tsai Ing-wen
Until 2018, the Taiwan Strait had enjoyed the afterglow of stable Cross-Strait relations during the Ma Ying-jeou administration (2008-16) under the Kuomintang (KMT), which promoted conciliatory relations with the mainland China. The Tsai Ing-wen administration, which came to power in 2016 with the support of the pro-independence faction in the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), took the position of dismissing the 1992 Consensus with the mainland on the "One China" principle. For this reason, Taiwan's relations with the mainland China, which regards Taiwan as part of China, were expected to instantaneously deteriorate. However, Tsai insisted on maintaining the "status quo" of the Taiwan Strait and continued to avoid "provoking" mainland China. China exerted pressure on Taiwan by closing quasi-official channels and by establishing diplomatic relations with countries that diplomatically recognized Taiwan but was precautious not to criticize Tsai by name. 3
China's attitude changed drastically when the ruling DPP suffered a historic defeat in the Taiwanese local elections in November 2018. On January 2, 2019, around which time the possibility of Tsai's re-election seemed slim, Xi Jinping delivered a speech at a gathering marking the 40th anniversary of "Message to Compatriots in Taiwan," calling on Taiwan to discuss a "‘two systems' solution to the Taiwan question" following reunification, while articulating that he would "not renounce the use of force and reserve the option of taking all necessary measures" against Taiwan. This is a blatantly hardline statement, close to a "surrender recommendation" to Taiwan. In anticipation of the DPP's loss of power, Xi launched an offensive for reunification. 4
Ironically, however, it was her rejection and criticism of Xi's hardline statement that helped Tsai to get back on her feet. 5 Meanwhile, Hong Kong people's opposition movement against the proposed amendments to the Fugitive Offenders Ordinance expanded, and in June, the Hong Kong police began to crack down on the movement with violence. Some anti-government demonstrators responded with violence, and the situation in Hong Kong became a quagmire. The great majority of Taiwanese people expressed their support and sympathy for the opposition movement in Hong Kong. Tsai criticized China and demonstrated solidarity with the Hong Kong opposition movement. Tsai's approval rating rebounded. She eventually won the presidential election with a record 8.17 million votes over the KMT candidate, Han Kuo-yu, by an overwhelming 2.65 million votes margin, and the DPP also won a majority in the Legislative Yuan.
2. Structural Changes in Taiwanese Society due to the Hong Kong Situation and the COVID-19 Crisis
At that time, the COVID-19 crisis occurred. The fact that this infectious disease spread from China to the rest of the world is generally undeniable. To make matters worse, the Chinese authorities initially attempted to conceal the infections and Chinese tourists overseas bought up face masks and other disinfection materials. Such behavior worsened the impression of China in the world. 6 Videos of hellish scenes in Wuhan where citizens struggled under the lockdown, together with shrill postings, were widely shared among the Taiwanese who understood the Chinese language.
Amid such confusion, the Chinese authorities delayed the chartered flights to carry Taiwanese residents home from Wuhan. Among other determinants that rapidly and structurally worsened Taiwan's impression of China are: China's self-righteous propaganda such as "It might be US army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan" or "the world should thank China"; the failure of China's mask diplomacy; China's ostracism of Taiwan from the World Health Assembly (WHA); China's military pressure on Taiwan under the COVID-19 pandemic; China's hardline attitude toward neighboring states over territorial issues; and China's swift passage of the Hong Kong national security law and a mass arrest of anti-government Honkongers. 7
According to various opinion polls, Taiwanese people's impressions of China have worsened by about 15% in the past one to two years. Taiwanese citizens entertaining bad feelings about China have reached 70 to 80% of all respondents; the ratio of Taiwanese people who think that the Chinese government is not a friend of Taiwan jumped from 58% to 73% between 2019 and 2020. 8 According to a survey on whether to settle on the mainland for "job" or "study", respondents who answered affirmative dropped by 17% and 16%, respectively, between 2018 and 2020. 9
Furthermore, amid the COVID-19 crisis, China exerted military pressure on Taiwan; sank Vietnamese fishing boats in the South China Sea; increased its activities near the Senkaku Islands; and went so far as to cause casualties through a skirmish on the Sino-Indian border. 10 Until then, there was a certain amount of support in Taiwan for the discourse that the Tsai administration was responsible for the deterioration of Cross-Strait relations by dismissing the "1992 Consensus." However, after a series of situations that emerged during the COVID-19 crisis, many Taiwanese came to believe that the troublemaker was not the DPP but China because these situations were created not by the DPP but by the Xi Jinping administration.
In the meantime, the Tsai administration's countermeasures against COVID-19 were almost perfect. After noticing the anomaly in Wuhan on December 31, 2019, the Taiwanese government launched responses in rapid succession to stop the influx of the novel coronavirus, while the presidential election campaigns were underway. As of May 10, 2021, the accumulated infections in Taiwan are just 1,119 cases; zero infection continues since April 26, 2020, with only a few temporary exceptions; and the total number of deaths is only 12. 11 Economic and social activities are on par with the pre-corona period, registering a 2.9% growth for 2020. The approval rating for the current administration's handling of COVID-19 once reached 97.2%, and the approval rating of the Tsai administration exceeded 60%, the highest level since its inauguration. 12
Above all, the contrasting differences between China and Taiwan have strengthened Taiwanese citizens' identity with Taiwan, with the percentage of those who believe that "I am Taiwanese, not Chinese" rising by 9.8% from 2019 to 2020 to reach 64.3%. 13 The number of Taiwanese citizens who are proud to be Taiwanese and dislike China has increased.
Problematic was the position of the opposition KMT maintaining good relations with China. KMT politicians like former President Ma Ying-jeou, whose track record is based on stable relations with China, continued to criticize the DPP government's countermeasures amid the COVID-19 crisis --- restrictions on entry into Taiwan from the mainland and the provisional suspension of mask exports. As a result, the KMT's approval rating sank by 7.1% to 17.0% in 2019-20 (the DPP rose to 34.0 %). 14 In other words, there is a nearly direct proportion between the increased support for the DPP government and the rising Taiwanese identity and the decreased support for the KMT and the reduced sense of affinity with China. The Hong Kong issue and the COVID-19 crisis have caused earthshaking changes with a 10-15% fluctuation in the public sentiment of Taiwanese society. This means that there is a high possibility that the DPP government encompassing pro-independent factions will be long lived and, as a result, Cross-Strait relations will become unstable and tense.
Meanwhile, China has lost one means after another to exert pressure on Taiwan. Reducing the number of mainlander tourists, which at one time reached about 4 million a year, was an effective way for China to jolt the Tsai administration. Before the COVID-19 crisis, China could send operatives to Taiwan to conduct infiltration operations and provide illicit profits to local agents in Taiwan. 15 But the COVID-19 crisis has halted human traffic, making it almost impossible to do either. It rendered China's economic leverage nearly powerless, and at the same time, the Tsai administration's approval rating reached an apex. In other words, the only way for China to mount pressure on Taiwan has become through the use of military power.
3. Xi Jinping's Dismissal of Deng Xiaoping's Strategy Package
In 2019-2020, China rejected the "strategic package" created by Deng Xiaoping, and the Xi Jinping administration turned to a forceful "non-strategic response."
Deng's "peaceful reunification" policy toward Taiwan finally led to the normalization of diplomatic relations with the United States in 1979. Deng pursued low-key, omnidirectional diplomacy to improve relations with neighboring states. Since President Chiang Ching-kuo in Taiwan rejected the "one country, two systems," Deng first applied it to Hong Kong following its repatriation, aiming to make it a successful model for Taiwanese people. 16 Deng aimed to promote political reform in China to achieve the rejuvenation of the leadership, the fixation of the term of office of the leadership, a collective leadership, the separation of party and government, and a shift to a more liberal political system.
Deng's strategic package, however, was left stranded by the Tiananmen Square massacre of 1989. Domestically, Deng's China confronted a backlash against reform and the opening-up, and the political reform was de facto abandoned. China fell into international isolation. The subsequent administrations of Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao chose the "rich country and strong army, without democratization" line. The Xi Jinping administration stands on the extension of this line. China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) and transformed itself into the world's factory. Its GDP surpassed that of Japan in 2010. Its defense budget has increased 44-fold in 30 years and is now about four times that of Japan.
The problem is that Xi belongs to the Cultural Revolution generation, and in his political philosophy and methods, he found a model to emulate but not in Deng but rather in Mao Zedong. 17 In many areas, the Xi administration has reversed Deng's strategic package, mobilized the people's superpower consciousness, and abandoned low-key diplomacy. It does not hesitate to confront the United States and other major developed countries. Besides, Xi has effectively nullified Hong Kong's one-country, two-systems policy and has unilaterally increased military pressure on Taiwan. He promoted dictatorship and the centralization of power, and tightened control over speech. The Xi administration utilizes digital technology to keep the whole nation under surveillance.
Consequently, there is no political force in the country that can halt the strategic reversal by the Xi administration. Some tactical adjustment of the pace of reversal would be the utmost that can be anticipated. It is pointed out that Xi, who is allegedly seeking multiple elections after 2022 to become the de facto supreme leader for life, aims to bequeath reunification with Taiwan as a legacy of his administration. 18
4. China's Military Pressure on Taiwan
Nonetheless, the Xi Jinping administration's hardline policy toward Taiwan does not immediately imply that China will seek reunification with Taiwan by use of force. This is because it would be a Herculean task for China to attack and completely occupy heavily armed Taiwan, braving the imminent risk of US military intervention; it would also be a challenge to initiate and sustain new governance of Taiwan, which is located more than 100km away across the sea. 19
In April 2020, the media began to report that China would try to seize the Pratas Islands (Dongsha Islands) under the effective control of Taiwan. However, an armed invasion and occupation of the remote islands located in the northern part of the South China Sea would inevitably lead to the decisive deterioration of relations with neighboring states in Southeast Asia, Japan, and India, with which China has "territorial" or "sovereignty" issues, and to further US intervention.
Since that operation is bound to cause massive casualties among the Chinese troops deployed in the islands, it would worsen Taiwanese sentiment toward China and help advance US-Taiwan military cooperation. As a result, unification with Taiwan would become more difficult. In sum, the limited use of force to seize the isolated islands, practical as it may be, would be a reckless operation with no clear vision of what would follow.
Rather, the Chinese authorities, including the People's Liberation Army, have repeatedly mentioned the "peaceful reunification policy" toward Taiwan. 20 What China currently exerts is military pressure bordering on harassment. Since around 2017, an increasing number of Chinese warships and military aircraft circumnavigate Taiwan Chinese aircraft carriers and other large warships frequently pass the Taiwan Strait. 21 Since 2020 the number and frequency of Chinese military aircraft entering the Taiwanese air defense identification zone (ADIZ) are on the increase. In 2020 alone, the number of incursions by Chinese military aircraft into the Taiwanese ADIZ totaled 380. 22 Most of these incursions took place to the southwest of Taiwan and in the direction of the Pratas Islands; Taiwanese Air Force aircraft were repeatedly forced to scramble. Some speculations as described above gain currency about the possibility of China's limited use of force. On March 26, 2021, the day that the AIT-TECRO MOU on Coast Guard Cooperation (US-Taiwan MOU on Coast Guard Cooperation) was concluded, 20 Chinese aircraft entered the Taiwanese ADIZ. After April 3, similar actions took place on ten consecutive days, and on April 13, 25 Chinese aircraft entered the Taiwanese ADIZ. 23
The increasing occurrence of such actions will invite reactions from Taiwan and the United States and eventually result in the increased military activities between the United States, China, and Taiwan in the adjacent airspace and sea areas. This, in turn, will increase the possibility of an accidental collision, which, however, is generally controllable.
5. US-China Strategic Competition Under the Biden Administration
Deng's strategic package provided the basis for US engagement with China; the "peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue" was a prerequisite to normalize US-China diplomatic relations. The United States provided assistance to China against the backdrop of the "New Cold War" with the Soviet Union. Americans expected that China would in due course democratize thanks to the introduction of a market economy through reforms and the opening-up, thereby achieving prosperity. This expectation appeared in document form during the Clinton administration and was named "comprehensive engagement." However, Xi trampled such US expectation, which was the premise of the US engagement policy, by promoting the "rich country and strong army with the strengthened dictatorship."
Moreover, the COVID-19 crisis triggered by the outbreak in China made the reelection of President Trump precarious and prompted him to engage in China-bashing. Shortly after that, in June, China enacted the Hong Kong National Security Law, eliminating the "one country, two systems" in Hong Kong. All this while, US policy toward China became increasingly hardline. The exchange of sanctions that erupted in 2020 threw US-China relations, which had deteriorated since the start of the bilateral trade war in 2018, into an unprecedented low after the normalization of bilateral diplomatic relations.
The US Congress enacted a flurry of laws in support of Taiwan and Hong Kong. The Trump administration's arms sales to Taiwan surpassed those of previous administrations in both quantity and quality. More than in the past, US officials visited Taiwan in August and October 2020, including Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar and Undersecretary of State Keith Krach.
In addition, the Trump administration took steps to check China's industrial policy through sanctions against Huawei Technologies and Chinese semiconductor manufacturers and through financial sanctions against other specific Chinese corporations and individuals. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. (TSMC), the world's largest semiconductor foundry, cooperated with the United States, stopped semiconductor supplies to Chinese corporations, and built a plant in Arizona. Taiwan is attempting to reduce its dependence on China, especially in key industrial areas, in tune with the US decoupling policy toward China. Taiwan also stands at the forefront of the US-China confrontation over high-tech supremacy.
Since its inauguration, the Joe Biden administration has pursued a foreign policy focusing on strategic competition with China. Immediately after taking office, President Biden overturned many of the policies of the previous administration but did not change the ongoing sanctions against China. Furthermore, unlike the Trump administration, the Biden administration emphasizes cooperation with allies to deal with China. At the US-Japan Security Consultative Committee (SCC, the so-called "two plus two") meeting in March 2021, the US-Japan summit in April, and the Group of Seven (G-7) foreign affairs and development ministers meeting in May, the importance of "peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait" was unexceptionally emphasized, 24 and China responded strongly.
A bipartisan consensus has formed in the US Congress on a hardline stance against China and in support for Taiwan. Xi's multiple elections from 2022 and beyond will make it even harder for China to find an opportunity to review its foreign strategy. Therefore, the current US-China strategic competition is highly likely to continue intermittently over the medium to long term with temporary respites.
Conclusion: The Need for Greater Deterrence Against China
Will China's use of force or threat of force jeopardize Cross-Strait relations? Given the structural changes in Taiwanese society and the strategic shift of the Xi administration, the probability of a crisis is increasing. But it might be better to distinguish short-term and medium to long-term prospects.
First, the possibility that Xi will decide to use military force against Taiwan is low in the short term. Xi's primary concern is to maintain his power and to win a third consecutive term as CPC general-secretary in 2022. If there is no other choice other than use of force against Taiwan to realize his third election, it will become an option for Xi. If, on the contrary, the use of force against Taiwan makes his third election precarious, or if he can secure his third election without seizing Taiwan, it may be better not to use force.
For Xi, the priority of "resolving the Taiwan issue" is not high enough to be essential for his third election. The challenges currently facing China include the confrontation with the United States, the domestic economy, and the Hong Kong conundrum. On top of these, the COVID-19 pandemic has emerged as an addition to the list of urgent and vital problems. Given the high risks and costs involved, it is likely that an extreme hardline policy toward Taiwan will be postponed in the short term.
Second, in the medium to long term, there will be more of a probability that China will pressure Taiwan to change the status quo through the use or threat of force. As China perceives that the prolongation of the DPP administration due to structural changes in Taiwanese society has made it impossible to achieve "peaceful unification" through negotiations and the political influence of the KMT, her incentives to use "coercive force" will increase.
However, if Xi's third election becomes a reality in 2022, the "resolution of the Taiwan issue" can be carried over as an even longer-term goal. The status quo in the Taiwan Strait has remained intact in this way due to the short-term postponement of China's hardline measures. This situation may continue into the future. Once Deng raised the "reunification of the motherland" as a national goal to achieve in the 1980s but was later obliged to set it as a national goal for the 1990s. Jiang Zemin also set the reunification of the motherland as a goal toward the 21st century but eventually raised it as a goal for the 21st century. Xi is so agile to position the reunification of the motherland as an "inevitable demand" for the "great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation."
Third, Xi will not automatically postpone reunification with Taiwan because the costs and risks involved are enormous. In the medium to long term, China will accelerate the development of capabilities to prevent US intervention and annex Taiwan by military force. As in the case of Russia's annexation of Crimea, nobody can guarantee that China will not resort to military action to the surprise of the international community. The international community must continue its efforts to raise the costs and risks to discourage China from choosing military force at any point in the future. To this end, Japan must support and maintain US commitment to the Taiwan Strait, not to mention its own defense force development.
The significance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait is not limited to the above. If China achieves the annexation of Taiwan by use of force, the logic of force will prevail, the international order in the region will collapse, and opportunities for economic development will vanish. Japan should promote the strengthening of security relations in the Indo-Pacific and Europe with all like-minded countries and regions with which cooperation is necessary and possible. Adopting a rational security policy is difficult for Japan due to its strong pacifism. But Japan should remove taboos and firmly improve its deterrence against China while maintaining stable Japan-China relations to the utmost.
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- Front Cover
- Changes in the Security Environment Surrounding Japan - Shifting Power Balance and the Three Front Threats Ken Jimbo
- How Will "Japan Contingencies" Emerge? Osamu Onoda
- The Japan-US Alliance Revisited: Is it Dependable? Chikako Kawakatsu Ueki
- A New Phase of Defense Diplomacy and Defense Production and Technology Base Ippeita Nishida, Tsuneo Watanabe
- Intelligence Activities in the Post-Ukraine War Era Jun Nagashima
- Responding to the Nuclear Threat Masashi Murano
- No Time to Lose for Improving Japan's Defense Capabilities - Can the JSDF Defend the Homeland? - Ryoichi Oriki
- Toward the Formulation of a New "National Security Strategy" Hideshi Tokuchi
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- September, 2020, "The Policy Agenda for the Xi Jinping Administration- COVID-19 Countermeasures and China's International Relations -" by Shin Kawashima, Professor, The University of Tokyo
- "Control in the United States and International Relations" by Koji Murata, Professor, Doshisha University
- September, 2020, "The EU's Response to COVID-19 and International Relations" by Yuichi Hosoya, Professor, Keio University
- August, 2020, "The Corona Crisis Seen from a Macroeconomic Perspective" written by Motoshige Itoh, Professor Emeritus, The University of Tokyo
- August, 2020, "The Coronavirus Pandemic and Japan's Infectious Disease Control" written by Takashi Mihara, Senior Research Fellow, NLI Research Institute
- August, 2020, "Infectious Disease Crisis Control in Japan- Recommendations on an Exit Strategy -" written by Kazumasa Oguro, Professor, Hosei University
- August, 2020, "Security against Infectious Disease Threats --- Policy Responses Abroad" written by Takashi Sekiyama, Associate Professor, Kyoto University
- June 2020,"Transformation of the International Order in the Middle East--- Varying Degrees of "Stateness" and Three Directions of the New Order" written by Satoshi Ikeuchi, Professor, Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo
- June 2020,"Destabilization in the Middle East and its Impacts on Japan's Energy Security" written by Amane Kobayashi, Research Fellow, The Institute of Energy Economics
- May 2020: Urgent Recommendations "Toward a V-shaped Recovery after the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic "Coronavirus Testing for All" --- the First Step of the Next Phase"
- May 2020: "US Diplomacy toward Iran: Economic Sanctions as a Diplomatic Tool" Hiroki Sugita Columnist, Kyodo News
- "Russian Factors in the Middle East" Taisuke Abiru Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- "The SDF Dispatches to the Middle East --- History and Significance" Ippeita Nishida Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- March 2020, "Space and Security" Kazuto Suzuki Professor, Hokkaido University
- March 2020, "The US Security Space Policy --- With a Focus on the Establishment of Two Space Forces" Yasuhito Fukushima Chief Researcher, The National Institute for Defense Studies
- March 2020, "China's Recent Activities in Space and Cyberspace" Bonji Ohara Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- March 2020, "Environmental Security and Japan" Takashi Sekiyama Associate Professor, Kyoto University
- March 2020, "Changes in Global Environment and Security --- US Security Strategy" Hideshi Tokuchi Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)
- February 2020, "Cyberspace Security" Motohiro Tsuchiya Professor, Keio University
- February 2020, "Japan's Space and Cyberspace Policy" Yukinari Hirose Former President of the National Institute for Defense Studies
- December 2019, "The US-China Confrontation --- Where Will Hegemony Reside Next?" Akio Takahara Professor, the University of Tokyo
- December 2019, "Challenges Facing the Chinese Economy" Osamu Tanaka Chief Senior Researcher, Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO
- December 2019, "US Strategic Perception on China: Implications for US Allied Partners" Tsuneo Watanabe Senior Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- November 2019, "The Xi Jinping Administration's View of the International Order– China's emphasis on United Nations diplomacy and liberal economic policies−" Shin Kawashima, Professor, the University of Tokyo
- November 2019, "The Future of China's Security Strategy" Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- November 2019, "China --- Its Confidence and Anxiety" Bonji Ohara, Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- August 2019: Several Perspectives on the Korean Peninsula Issue--- The Deteriorating Japan-South Korea Relationship and the Uncertain Denuclearization of North Korea --- By Masahiro Akiyama Chairman, the SSDP
- July 2019, "An Outlook on the Denuclearization of North Korea--- What is the Stance of North Korea?---", Junya Nishino, Professor, Keio University
- July 2019, "An Outlook on the Denuclearization of North Korea --- How will the US move?", Narushige Michishita, Vice President, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- July 2019, "Discussion on Denuclearization of North Korea", SSDP Discussion Meeting on May 8, 2019
- May 2019: "Current Status and Prospects of South Korea and Japan's Frictions over History: How to address the Judicial Problems", Masao Okonogi, Professor Emeritus, Keio University
- May 2019: "South Korea and Japan's Frictions over History" (Comments), Junya Nishino, Professor, Keio University
- May 2019: Japan and South Korea Relationships (Question & Answer)
- March 2019: "The Present State and Prospects of the Indian Economy and Economic Policies" written by Koji Kobayashi, Senior Economist Mizuho Research Institute Ltd.
- March 2019: "The "Modi diplomacy" in the History of Indian diplomacy--- Departure from or maintenance of the traditional diplomacy? ---" written by Toru Ito, The National Defense Academy of Japan
- February 2019: Dynamics of Indian Politics and the 2019 General Elections, written by Chiharu Takenaka, Professor of Rikkyo University
- February 2019: "Cooperative Strategy" to Realize "Competitive Strategy"--- The composite structure of Japan's "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" strategy (vision) ---, written by Matake Kamiya, Professor at The National Defense Academy of Japan
- January 2019:, A paper, "How will the US midterm elections results affect the Trump administration's foreign policy for 2019?" written by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- January 2019:, A paper, "The Present and Future of the International Trade Order" , written by Akihiko Tamura, Professor, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- December 2018: The US-China Competition and Japan, written by Ryo Sahashi, Professor at Kanagawa University
- December 2018: An Outlook for the US-China Trade War―What makes the two economically interdependent superpowers confront each other?―, written by Takashi Sekiyama, Associate professor at Toyo University
- September 2018: Proposal, "The Denuclearization of North Korea and the Restoration of Peace in the Korean Peninsula― Correct Perceptions and Eight Proposals on Japan's North Korea Diplomacy－" edited by the Society of Security and Diplomatic Policy Studies
- September 2018: "The Taiwan Policy of the Xi Jinping Administration in its Second Term: An Outlook on Cross-Strait Relations in the New Era" written by Yasuhiro Matsuda, Professor of the Tokyo University
- July 2018: "The EU States and Russia on North Korea Issues- Expansion of Influence through Diplomacy: Attempts and Limitations -" lectured by Yuichi Hosoya, Professor of Keio University
- "An Assessment of the US-North Korea Summit and an Outlook for the Future of the Korean Peninsula" lectured by Junya Nishino, Professor of Keio University
- "Korean Peninsula Issue and Japan's Future Security Policy" written by Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow of National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
- July 2018: "US North Korea policy affected by personnel changes in the Trump administration" lectured by Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation.
- "China-North Korea relationship under Xi Jinping" lectured by Shin Kawashima, Professor of the Tokyo University.
- "North Korean Denuclearization and Russia" lectured by Nobuo Shimotomai, Professor of the Hosei University.
- March 2018: "The Network Hegemony Theory for a Security Architecture in The Asia Pacific Region" lectured by Masahiro Akiyama, Chairman, the Society of Security and Diplomatic Policy Studies
- January 2018: "A Destabilized Middle East" lectured by Koichiro Tanaka, Professor, Keio University
- December 2017: "Problems in Sino-Japanese Relations, 1992-2042" lectured by Ezra F. Vogel, Professor of the Social Sciences Emeritus at Harvard University
- November 2017: "The Future of the Asia-Pacific Region" written by Yoriko Kawaguchi, Fellow, the Meiji Institute for Global Affairs, Former Minister Foreign Affairs
- October 2017: "A New Trend in India's Foreign Policy and Japan" Written by HIROSE,Takako, Professor, Senshu University
- August 2017: "The Shocks that shook the Transatlantic World and their Implication for Japan's Foreign Policy" written by HOSOYA, Yuichi, Professor, Keio University
- August 2017: "Does Economic Interdependence not Encourage Collaboration? ―Thinking Japan-China Relations from an Economic Perspective―" written by Takashi SEKIYAMA, Ph.D., Toyo University
- July 2017: Proposal article "The Trump Administration's Impact on the Cross-Strait Relations" written by Yasuhiro Matsuda, Ph.D.
- June 2017: Proposal article "The outlook for the relationship between two great powers and implications for Japanese diplomacy" written by Professor Shin Kawashima
- May 2017: (Emergency Proposal) Facing the Inconvenient Truth: Re-examining Policy for Peace and Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula (Chief author, Masao Okonogi)
- March 2017: "Economic Influences of the Trump Administration" written by Professor Motoshige Ito
- February, 2017: Proposal article "Trump's Foreign and Security Policy - Unpredictable President, Realistic Secretaries - " written by Mr. Tsuneo Watanabe is posted on the website of SSDP.
- December, 2016: Proposal article "Reconsidering North Korea Policy: How to Deal with a Nuclear Armed Divided States" written by Professor Masao Okonogi is posted on the website of SSDP.
- Taiwan-Japan Round Table on August 24th, at Capital Tokyu Hotel
- Japan-Korea Political Leaders Dialogue was held on February 10th,2023 at International House of Japan
- March 2022, A remembrance seminar "Remembering Professor Ezra Vogel" held on January 17, 2022
- March 2021, Japan-ROK Parliamentary Dialogue -Japan-ROK Cooperation in the Era of US-China Competition- held on March 11, 2021
- December 2020: The report of the Japan-ROK Future Dialogue held on November 21 to discuss "Japan-ROK Cooperation in the Post-Covid-19 Era
- October 2020: "Responses to COVID-19 and Agendas for the Post-COVID-19 Era", A Brief Overview of the Japan-Korea Experts Dialogue held on July 29,30, 2020
- October 2020: "The China-Taiwan Confrontation over Corona Response and Taiwan's Security" written by Makoto Ogata, Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
- May 2020: "Rivalries in the Middle East in New Security Dynamics", Written by Sayed Ghoneim, Major General (retired) of the Egyptian Armed Forces, Chairman, Institute for Global Security & Defence Affairs
- March 2020: The Japan-South Korea Relationship in a Cul-de-Sac--- Where is an Exit ? Masao Okonogi Professor Emeritus, Keio Universit
- December 2019: The Hong Kong Upheaval and the Future of Cross-Straits Relations－The 2019 Japan-Taiwan Strategic Dialogue Report OGATA, Makoto Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
- August 2019: Report; 2019 FUTURE CONSENSUS DIALOGUE --Sustainable Prosperity and Future of Korea-U.S.-Japan Cooperation-- By Future Consensus Institute (Yeosijae)
- June 2019: Report on India – Japan Security Dialogue 2019 by Ms. Vindu Mai Chotani, Ph.D Student, The University of Tokyo
June 2019: Four papers on Japan-India Cooperation submitted to India-Japan Security Dialogue 2019
Japan's Rationale for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision
Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, The Sasakawa Peace Foundation
The Significance and Possibilities of India-Japan Cooperation in the Concept of the Indo-Pacific
Toru ITO Associate Professor, National Defense Academy of Japan
Japan-India Defense Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific Context - Operationalizing the Security Aspect of the Indo-Pacific Vision –
Hideshi Tokuchi, Senior Fellow, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)
India-US-Japan Defense Cooperation: What's next?
Dr. Satoru Nagao, Hudson Institute
- Japan's Rationale for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision
- November 2018: "The Present State of the Japanese Economy and Policy Issues" lectured by Motoshige Itoh, Professor Emeritus at the University of Tokyo.
- November 2018: "Expanding Social Security Expenses and Fiscal Reforms" lectured by Kazumasa Oguro, Professor at Hosei University.
- September 2018: "Taiwan Identity and Cross-Strait Relations and Trump's Taiwan Policy and the Future of Taiwan-US Relations-Discussion at The Second Japan-Taiwan Strategic Dialogue (June 21, 2018, Taipei)-" written by OGATA, Makoto
- September 2018: "Japan-Taiwan Dialogue 2018 Minutes", 21st June 2018, Taipei, Taiwan.
- July 2018: Report on The Second Japan – Philippines Strategic Dialogue prepared by Ms. Vindu Mai Chotani, Ph.D. Student, Graduate School of Public Policy, Tokyo University.
- May 2018: "Civilian Control "at Crisis"? – Perhaps Not, for the Case of the Field Sit-reps from SDF's South Sudan Mission" reported by Ippeita Nishida, Research Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation
- January 2018: "Fukushima, Genki？Project－Young Taiwanese volunteers introduce the facts on Fukushima's revival through documentary films－" reported by OGATA, Makoto, Former Chief of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association in Taipei
- December 2017: "Commemorating a Quarter Century of Dispatches of the JSDF's PKO Units: Challenges and Possibilities in the Post South Sudan" written by Takayuki Shoji, Lecturer, Nihon University
- November 2017: "19th CCP National Congress" written by Mr. Bonji Ohara, Senior Research Fellow, the Sasakawa Peace Fondation
- October 2017: "What is Japan's Role in the Indo-China border conflict?" written by Dr. NGAO,Satoru, Research Fellow, Institute for Future Engineering
- July 2017: "Overview of the Current Situation in Taiwan-" the Naturally Independent Generation" will affect the Taiwan"s politics-" written by Makoto Ogata MGE.(Ret.)
- June 2017: "Japan-U.S. Economic Dialogue" written by Mr.Takaaki Asano
- March 2017: "The Japan-Philippines Strategic Dialogue" written by Mr. Hideshi Tokuchi
- February, 2017: Current topic "The Importance of Japan's Security Role Under Trump" written by Dr. Satoru Nagao is posted on the SSDP website.
- December, 2016: Current topic "Widening Security Task: Will SDF do the Job?" written by Mr. Ippeita Nishida is posted on the SSDP website.
- June 2023,Research journal "Security Studies vol5 no2" (Nuclear Crisis Scenarios Facing Japan and the Outlook of Nuclear Deterrence and Arms Control and Disarmament) in English edition was published.
- March 2023,Research journal "Security Studies vol5 no1" (What Will Happen to European Security?―Facing the War in Ukraine) in English edition was published.
- January 2023, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 4)" - Defending Our Country – Defense Policy in a "New Cold War Era - was published.
- October 2022, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 3)" - Xi Jinping's China - Politics, Economy, Society and Diplomacy - was published.
- Jun 2022, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 2)" -The Russia-Ukraine War and Its Global Impact- was published.
- March 2022, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 4 no 1)"-What is Economic Security?- was published.
- December 2021, Research Jounal "Security Studies (vol 3 no 4)"-Korean Peninsula Situation- was published.
- September 2021, A research journal "Security Studies vol03 no03" -Asia's Security II- (English edition)
- June 2021, A research journal "Security Studies vol03 no02" -Asia's Security I- (English edition)
- March 2021: Research journal "Security Studies (vol3 no1) "- US Foreign Policy in the Biden Administration / The 2020 US Presidential Election and American Democracy -(English edition)
- December 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no4) "- Normalize Japan-South Korea Relations trough Dialogues -(English edition)
- September 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no3) "-The Novel Coronavirus and Security-(English edition)
- July 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no2) - Middle East Situation and Japan's Security - " (English edition) was published
- May 2020: A research journal "Security Studies (vol2 no1) - Cyber, Space, Environment and Security - " March 2020 (English edition)
- February 2020, "A research journal "Security Studies (vol1 no4) " (English edition)"
- September 2019: A research journal "Security Studies (vol1 no3) " (English edition)
- August 2019: Korea-Japan Joint Seminar: FUTURE CONSENSUS DIALOGUE
- April 2019: "Security Studies (vol1 no2) April 2019"
- March 2019: A research journal "Security Studies vol1 no01" just published
- February 2019: The Denuclearization of North Korea and the Takeshima Issue
- December 2018: Former Vice Defense Minister Masahiro Akiyama's Memoirs (An Ad)
- November 2018: Participation in the Future Consensus Forum held in Beijing
- September 2018: "2018 Indo-Pacific Security Dialogue" reported by Masahiro Akiyama
- 2017 December: "The Butterfly Project-A possibility of showing a solution to the North Korea problem-"
- October 2017: Campaign on the problems with North Korea
- August 2017: A New Containment Policy Strategy
- June 2017: Korean peninsla
- March 2017: President Duterte
- February, 2017: Kazakhstan
- November, 2016: Participated in Astana Club 2016 held in Kazakhstan on November 14- 16, 2016.