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Proposal Article

1 International Aid to Ukraine (Military and Non-Military) (Edited lecture transcript)
Atsuko Higashino
Looking at the overall trends, the delay in international military aid in 2023 had a significant impact on the war situation in eastern Ukraine in 2024. This delay is gradually being rectified, and the amount of international military aid in 2024 is slowly increasing. From now on, urgent debates will take place among donor countries over the way Ukraine should use weapons supplied by the West or whether Ukraine should be allowed to use those weapons for long-range attacks against military targets in Russia―rather than over the "monetary amount" of military aid. At present, Ukraine does not receive sufficient military aid to win the ongoing war, both in terms of quality and quantity. In addition to the insufficiency of weapons, how Ukraine should use those weapons will matter from now. （Please see more the SSDP website）
2 Germany's Arms Assistance for Ukraine: Has Its Culture of Self-Restraint Been Overcome?
Norihide Miyoshi
This paper will focus on Germany's military assistance for Ukraine. Germany is the most influential country in Europe; European security depends on it. Yet, consideration of the Nazi era from its history has made Germany adopt a self-restrained foreign and security policy. Has the war in Ukraine brought about a change in Germany's behavior? Chancellor Olaf Scholz's speech to the Bundestag on February 27, 2022, three days after the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, marked a turning point for German politics, as suggested by his repetition of the word "Zeitenwende" (turning point).Scholz set forth the following new policies: (1) arms assistance for Ukraine, (2) sanctions against Russia, (3) defense spending equal to 2% of GDP, (4) a €100 billion-worth "special asset" for upgrading military equipment, (5) the introduction of the F35 as a tactical nuclear-capable fighter jet, and (6) the promotion of energy security, etc. （Please see more the SSDP website）
3 Russia's War Costs: Military Expenditures and Resource Allocation in "Wartime"
Miho Okada
This paper discusses the evolution of Russia's military expenditures since the outbreak of the war in an attempt to get an overall picture of Russia's war costs. The fact that the Putin administration calls the war "special military operations," fails to declare a legal "military state of emergency," and continues to spend massive financial resources under the guise of normal civil life means that Russia's war costs are not defined as "war spending" but included in peacetime expenditure items, and that "military expenditures" expand invisibly. The prolongation of the Russian-Ukrainian war makes it essential to analyze how Russia has borne war costs, how it will bear them in the future, and how they will affect the course of the war and domestic politics in Russia. （Please see more the SSDP website）
4 Assessment of Russia's Military Strength, Stockpiles, and Defense Production Base: Evaluating Russia's Capability to Continue Warfare
Yu Koizumi Associate Professor for RCAST, The University of Tokyo
Russia's aggression against Ukraine has already gone on for more than two and a half years. The termination of this war will depend largely on political factors; it is not easy to predict. This paper focuses on a factor easier to measure quantitatively, namely Russia's capability to continue warfare, and examines how long Russia could carry it on. Specifically, it will discuss Russia's military strength, including its ability to mobilize reserves, its stockpile of weapons and ammunition, and related production/ maintenance capacities. That said, the scope of any examination is broad. Therefore, this paper has chosen and discussed topics, where information is relatively easy to obtain. （Please see more the SSDP website）
5 Economic Sanctions and the Russian Economy
Makoto Onozuka Research Manager, Japan External Trade Organization
It seems that Russia is adjusting to those Western sanctions. From an economic standpoint, Russia's economic slowdown in 2022 was smaller than initially expected by international organizations. The size of the Russian economy in 2023 also registered significant growth, surpassing pre-invasion levels. On the diplomatic and trade fronts, Russia is strengthening its ties with economic powerhouses like China and India without becoming isolated from the international community. Additionally, Russia is looking to expand its diplomatic and trade relations with developing and emerging countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Industrial and technological dependence on the West is compensated for by parallel imports, domestic production promotion, procurement from friendly countries, and technology transfer. There is a shortage of highly skilled labor, especially engineers, which may potentially impede the Russian economy and affect its invasion efforts. However, at present, the Russian economy is still growing, and since the Russian government is taking countermeasures, the labor shortage is unlikely to contribute to an immediate halt of the invasion. （Please see more the SSDP website）
6 Russia's Prolonged Military Invasion of Ukraine and Ukrainian Public Opinion: Focusing on Perceptions of Negotiations, Territory, and Sovereignty
Tsuyoshi Goroku Associate Professor, Nishogakusha University
On February 24, 2022, Russian forces launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which marked the beginning of a new phase in the Russo-Ukrainian War that had been underway for eight years since the Russian invasion of Crimea and the outbreak of conflict in eastern Ukraine (Donbas) in the spring of 2014. As of this writing (August 2024), two and a half years have passed since then, but attrition warfare is still raging mainly in eastern Ukraine, and the front lines have remained deadlocked for long. Many government officials and experts, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, predicted, from early this year, that 2024 would be a difficult year for Ukraine. Due to the failure of its counteroffensive attempt in 2023, Ukraine is now facing many difficulties on the battlefield and in areas distant from the front lines. What impact has this prolonged war had on the awareness of the Ukrainian people, particularly on their thinking of "negotiations with Russia," "territorial compromises," and "compromises on sovereignty"? This paper aims to answer these questions, drawing on the outcomes of several public opinion polls conducted in Ukraine. （Please see more the SSDP website）
1 The Russia-Ukraine War Viewed from War Termination Theory
Yasuaki Chijiwa
The Russian forces invading Ukraine show no signs of withdrawing from the country; on the contrary, Russian President Vladimir Putin conditions the Ukrainian troops' withdrawal from the Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory on a ceasefire. Meanwhile, according to a Ukrainian public opinion poll conducted in June 2024, more than 80% of respondents "disagree" with the Russian ceasefire condition. This article aims to discuss what war termination theory could suggest in considering the consequences of this war, based on an analysis of the current situation two and a half years since Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. （Please see more the SSDP website）
2 How the Winter War Ended: A "Compromised Peace" Ends the Ukraine War?
Tomoyuki Hanada
To begin with the conclusion, the ongoing war in Ukraine and the Winter War are analogous in five points: (1) the wars did not end in a short time despite a wide discrepancy in military strength between the warring states; (2) the invaded Ukraine and Finland decided to resist without establishing a government-in-exile; (3) the Russian/Soviet invasions were initiated based on defective strategic estimates; (4) pro-Russian and pro-Soviet political forces had a significant influence on the conduct of the wars, and (5) the international community had a harsh reaction to Russia and the Soviet Union. In considering a "compromised peace" that would end the war in Ukraine, the Winter War provides historical insights into homeland defense, casualties, and the international community's reaction. （Please see more the SSDP website）
3 The End of the Soviet-Afghan War
Takeshi Yuasa
The two wars share numerous intriguing similarities. First, in launching these invasions, the Soviet Union/Russia justified military intervention by brandishing a cause based on ideology and statism. Moreover, when the Soviet/Russian leadership decided on military intervention, they had an optimistic prospect for a swift settlement; they continued or are continuing military intervention in defiance of international condemnation.As was the case with the Soviet-Afghan intervention, the war in Ukraine has dragged on, distortions in Russian society have gradually multiplied. Meduza, a Latvia-based independent Russian news site, reported in July 2024 that Russian soldiers returning from the battlefields in Ukraine are unable to resume their social life due to the psychological trauma they suffer and that some commit crimes. （Please see more the SSDP website）

Letter

Research journal "Security Studies (vol6 no3) October 2024" (What Will End the Ukraine War?) in English edition was published. (Please see the SSDP website)

Topics

Taiwan-Japan Round Table

August 24th, at Capital Tokyu Hotel

Discussion on the Impact of the Ukrain War on the Strait Problem (Please see the SSDP website)

Society of Security and Diplomatic Policy Studies (SSDP)

China is rising and may become a regional hegemon in not-so- distant future. Ascending India and the resurgence of Russia also illustrate the fact that we face a rapid power transition in Asia. Against this backdrop, Japan, as a major regional power, and its security strategy and diplomatic policy will be put to the test. With this in mind, the Society of Security and Diplomatic Policy Studies (SSDP) was founded in October, 2016. The SSDP will also conduct public diplomacy through its research projects. Japanese foreign relations vis-à- vis the neighboring states are likely to mark a new chapter in the near future and therefore, our research endeavors and other activities will be consequential.

information
  • The 74st SSDP discussion session was held on August 27th, 2024 to discuss " What Will End the Ukraine War? "
  • The 73rd SSDP discussion session was held on August 20th, 2024 to discuss " What Will End the Ukraine War? "
  • The 72nd SSDP discussion session was held on August 8th, 2024 to discuss " What Will End the Ukraine War? "
  • The 71st SSDP discussion session was held on May 24th, 2024 to discuss " How Has South Korea Changed under the Yoon Suk-yeol Administration? "
  • The 70th SSDP discussion session was held on May 17th, 2024 to discuss " How Has South Korea Changed under the Yoon Suk-yeol Administration? "
  • The 69th SSDP discussion session was held on May 14th, 2024 to discuss " How Has South Korea Changed under the Yoon Suk-yeol Administration? "
  • The 68th SSDP discussion session was held on February 23rd, 2024 to discuss " The Middle East in Turmoil "
  • The 67th SSDP discussion session was held on February 15th, 2024 to discuss " The Middle East in Turmoil "
  • The 66th SSDP discussion session was held on February 8th, 2024 to discuss " The Middle East in Turmoil "
  • The 65th SSDP discussion session was held on November 20th, 2023 to discuss " What is th Global South? "
  • The 64th SSDP discussion session was held on November 9th, 2023 to discuss " What is th Global South? "
  • The 63rd SSDP discussion session was held on November 1st, 2023 to discuss " What is th Global South? "
  • The 62nd SSDP discussion session was held on August 25th, 2023 to discuss " Hegemonic America: Where It's Headed ".
  • The 61st SSDP discussion session was held on August 12th, 2023 to discuss " Hegemonic America: Where It's Headed ".
  • The 60th SSDP discussion session was held on August 7th, 2023 to discuss " Hegemonic America: Where It's Headed "
  • The 59th SSDP discussion session was held on May 24th, 2023 discuss " Nuclear Crisis Scenarios Facing Japan and the Outlook of Nuclear Deterrence and Arms Control and Disarmament ".
  • The 58th SSDP discussion session was held on May 19th, 2023 to discuss " Nuclear Crisis Scenarios Facing Japan and the Outlook of Nuclear Deterrence and Arms Control and Disarmament ".
  • The 57th SSDP discussion session was held on May 11th, 2023 to discuss " Nuclear Crisis Scenarios Facing Japan and the Outlook of Nuclear Deterrence and Arms Control and Disarmament ".
  • The 56th SSDP discussion session was held on March 1st, 2023 to discuss " What Will Happen to European Security? ".
  • The 55th SSDP discussion session was held on February 15th, 2023 to discuss " What Will Happen to European Security? ".
  • The 54th SSDP discussion session was held on February 9th, 2023 to discuss " What Will Happen to European Security? ".
  • The 53th SSDP discussion session was held on November 15th, 2022 to discuss " Defending Our Country ".
  • The 52th SSDP discussion session was held on November 11th, 2022 to discuss " Defending Our Country ".
  • The 51th SSDP discussion session was held on October 28th, 2022 to discuss " Defending Our Country ".
  • The 50th SSDP discussion session was held on August 12th, 2022 to discuss " Xi Jinping's China".
  • The 49th SSDP discussion session was held on August 1st, 2022 to discuss " Xi Jinping's China".
  • The 48th SSDP discussion session was held on July 22, 2022 to discuss " Xi Jinping's China".
  • The 47th SSDP discussion session was held on May 30, 2022 to discuss "Global Impact of the Ukraine War".
  • The 46th SSDP discussion session was held on May 23, 2022 to discuss "The Ukrainian War from the view points of Theories of International Politics and International Law".
  • The 45th SSDP discussion session was held on May 18, 2022 to discuss "Why the Ukrainian War Occurs?".
  • The 44th SSDP discussion session was held on February 17, 2022 to discuss "National Security Strategy and Economic Security".
  • The 43rd SSDP discussion session was held on February 9, 2022 to discuss "Free Trade Regeme and Economic Security".
  • The 42nd SSDP discussion session was held on February 5, 2022 to discuss "Science/Technology and Economic Security".
  • A remembrance seminar "Remembering Professor Ezra Vogel" was held on January 17, 2022.
  • Research journal "Security Studies (vol3 no4) December 2021 " was published in December.
  • The 41st SSDP discussion session was held on November 17, 2021 to discuss " Korea's Political Situation and Japan".
  • The 40th SSDP discussion session was held on November 17, 2021 to discuss " North Korea's Situation".
  • The 39th SSDP discussion session was held on October 29, 2021 to discuss " North Korea's Nuclear Missile Development ".
  • Japan-Korea joint seminars were held on July 26, August 23, September 28 to discuss on Japan's and Korea's coping with the competition between the US and China.
  • A research journal "Security Studies vol03 no03" was published in September.
  • A research journal "Security Studies vol03 no02" was published in June.
  • The 38nd SSDP discussion session was held on May 28, 2021 to discuss "Asia's Security-Regional Security Mechanism".
  • The 37nd SSDP discussion session was held on May 24, 2021 to discuss "Asia's Security-Regional Security Problems".
  • The 36nd SSDP discussion session was held on May 14, 2021 to discuss "Asia's Security-Regional Power's Security Perspective".
  • The 35nd SSDP discussion session was held on April 26, 2021 to discuss "Asia's Security-Regional Security Mechanism".
  • The 34nd SSDP discussion session was held on April 20, 2021 to discuss "Asia's Security-Regional Security Problems".
  • The 33nd SSDP discussion session was held on April 19, 2021 to discuss "Asia's Security-Regional Power's Security Perspective".
  • A research journal "Security Studies vol03 no01" was published in March.
  • Japan-ROK Parliamentary Dialogue was held on March 11, 2021 to discuss "Japan-ROK Cooperation in the Era of US-China Competition".
  • The 32nd SSDP discussion session was held on January 28, 2021 to discuss "The Biden Diplomatic Policies".
  • The 31st SSDP discussion session was held on January 22, 2021 to discuss "The Biden Diplomatic Policies".
  • The 30th SSDP discussion session was held on January 18, 2021 to discuss " The US Policy toward China ".
  • The 29th SSDP discussion session was held on December 10 to discuss" The US Presidential Election and Its Democracy".
  • A research journal "Security Studies vol02 no04" was published in December.
  • The Japan-ROK Future Dialogue was held on November 21 to discuss "Japan-ROK Cooperation in the Post-Covid-19 Era".
  • A research journal "Security Studies vol02 no03" was published in September.
  • The 28th SSDP discussion session was held on July 17 to discuss" The Novel Coronavirus Pandemic and Security (3)".
  • The 27th SSDP discussion session was held on July 13 to discuss" The Novel Coronavirus Pandemic and Security(2)".
  • The 26th SSDP discussion session was held on July 6 to discuss "The Novel Coronavirus Pandemic and Security (1)".
  • A research journal "Security Studies vol02 no02" was published in July.
  • A joint meeting hosted by the SSDP and the Group for State Power Studies approved Urgent Recommendations on COVID-19.
  • The 25th SSDP discussion session was held on April 24 to discuss" Middle East and Japan's Security (2)".
  • The 24th SSDP discussion session was held on April 14 to discuss "Middle East and Japan's Security (1)".
  • A research journal "Security Studies vol02 no01" was published in April.
  • The SSDP Round Table was held on February 21 to discuss Middle East strategic situation.
  • The 23rd SSDP discussion session was held on February 17 to discuss"Cyber, Space, Environment and Security(3)".
  • The 22nd SSDP discussion session was held on January 30 to discuss"Cyber, Space, Environment and Security(2)".
  • The 21st SSDP discussion session was held on January 27 to discuss"Cyber, Space, Environment and Security(1)".
  • The SSDP Round Table was held on January 17, 2020 to discuss Middle East Risks.
  • The 20th SSDP discussion session was held on October 10 to discuss China's problems.
  • The 19th SSDP discussion session was held on October 7 to discuss China's problems.
  • The SSDP and The PF held the Japan-Taiwan Dialogue in Taipei on September 20.
  • A research journal "Security Studies vol1 no03" was published in September.
  • 2019 FUTURE CONSENSUS DIALOGUE was held on July 31 and August 1 in Tokyo
  • The 18th SSDP discussion session was held on May 8 to discuss the denuclearization of North Korea.
  • The 17th SSDP discussion session was held on April 22 to discuss Japan-Korea relationships.
  • The SSDP published a research journal "Security Studies vol1 no2", in April 2019.
  • The SSDP published a new research journal, "Security Studies", this month.
  • The 16th SSDP discussion session was held on February 6 to discuss Indian issues (2).
  • The 15th SSDP discussion session was held on February 4 to discuss Indian issues(1).
  • The 14th SSDP discussion session was held on November 9 to discuss Trump's trade policy(2).
  • The 13th SSDP discussion session was held on November 7 to discuss Trump's trade policy(1).
  • The 12th SSDP discussion session was held on September 27 to discuss economic problems Japan is facing.
  • The 11th SSDP discussion session was held on June 18 to discuss " North Korea's problem after the historical US-North Korea Summit Meeting ".
  • The 10th SSDP discussion session was held on June 14 to discuss " North Korea's problem after the historical US-North Korea Summit Meeting".
  • The 2nd Japan-Philippines Strategic Dialogue was held in Tokyo on March 10.
  • The 9th SSDP discussion session was held on February 16 to discuss " The Network Hegemony Theory for a Security Architecture in The Asia Pacific Region ".
  • The 8th SSDP discussion session was held on December18 to discuss "Destabilized Middle East".
  • The 7th SSDP discussion session was held on October 9 to discuss "19th CCP National Congress".
  • A special session was held on October 8 to hear a lecture on "Problems in Sino-Japanese Relations, 1992-2042"
  • The 6th SSDP discussion session was held on September 28 to hear a lecture on the Future of the Asia-Pacific Region.
  • A special session was held on September 19 to discuss a New Trend in India's Foreign Policy and Japan.
  • The 5th SSDP discussion session was held on July 20 to discuss an economic interdependence and its action on politics
  • A special session was held on June 30 to discuss The prospect of European politics and its implication on the Japan"s diplomatic policy
  • The 4 th SSDP discussion session was held on May 31 to discuss the two great powers, the US and China, and the implication on Japan's diplomatic policy.
  • The Japan-Taiwan Strategic Dialogue was held in Taipei on May 15 to discuss the Trump administration's influence on the region, in particular Taiwan.
  • The Japan-Philippines Strategic Dialogue was held in Manila on January 31 to discuss the strategic environments for each country and the two countries' cooperation.
  • The third SSDP discussion session was held on January 23, 2017 to discuss Abenomics and Trump.
  • The second SSDP discussion session was held on December 7, 2016 to discuss Trump and his security policy.
  • The first SSDP discussion session was held on October 14, 2016 to discuss the Korean Peninsula issues.
  • Society of Security and Diplomatic Policy Studies (SSDP) was founded by AKIYAMA Associates (Masahiro Akiyama, president) in October, 2016.
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