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Geopolitics of Science and Technology: China's Scientific Revolution vs. Trump 2.0

Think Tank Assessments of US and Chinese Innovation Efforts

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a leading US think tank, argued in a commentary titled "The United States Cannot Win the Twenty-First-Century Innovation Race with a Twentieth-Century Playbook" that to face "a near-peer rival" China, the United States must make its universities, research institutes, financial networks, education and training networks, and networks of manufacturing companies turn like "interlocking gears." The underlying recognition is that the "Twentieth-Century Playbook" adopted a linear pipeline model of basic research, applied research, prototype, product development, and production, allowing the product development and production phases to be offshored to East Asia, primarily China and Japan, thereby contributing to the decline of the US manufacturing industry.

The Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF), a US think tank specializing in information science, issued a comprehensive report titled "China Is Rapidly Becoming a Leading Innovator in Advanced Industries." "While the evidence suggests it (China) hasn't yet taken the overall lead," says the report, "it has pulled ahead in certain areas, and in many others Chinese firms will likely equal or surpass Western firms within a decade or so." The report notes that China leads in commercial nuclear power, electric vehicles, and batteries, while making rapid progress in other key sectors, including robotics, biopharmaceuticals, chemicals, and AI. It then expresses strong concern: "Within a few decades, we could be in a world where it is China that is imposing export controls on the United States."

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) published a report stating that China has outperformed the United States by a large margin in 64 technologies across nine crucial fields directly related to national security. "The US led in 60 of 64 technologies in the five years from 2003 to 2007, but in the most recent five years (2019–2023), it is leading in seven." Meanwhile, "China … is now the lead country in 57 of 64 technologies in 2019–2023." The report analyzes that the United States "leads in quantum computing, vaccines and medical countermeasures, nuclear medicine and radiotherapy, small satellites, atomic clocks, genetic engineering and natural language processing" while "China's new gains have occurred in quantum sensors, high-performance computing, gravitational sensors, space launch and advanced integrated circuit design and fabrication."

China's recent advances in science and technology are remarkable. Since its accession to the WTO in December 2001, China's progress has been especially rapid, setting a new standard in the history of modern science.

Science and Technology Data Reveals Geopolitical Changes

Scientific and technological indicators, which measure a country's R&D capabilities, confirm China's rapid progress. According to an analysis of the Nature Index, which evaluates the research capabilities of countries, research institutes, and universities in terms of five fields—biology, chemistry, earth and environmental sciences, health sciences, and physical sciences—based on papers published in top specialty journals, China overtook the United States in 2023, widening the gap four times larger than the previous year in 2024. In 2015, only the Chinese Academy of Sciences ranked among the world's top ten universities and research institutes, but in 2024, as many as eight Chinese entities were on the top-ten list. It has become clear that over the past decade the geopolitics of science and technology, as well as the circulation of talent, underwent significant changes.

Top 10 Research Institutions in the World
2024 2015
1 Chinese Academy of Sciences, China Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
2 Harvard University, USA Harvard University, USA
3 University of Science and Technology of China, China French National Centre for Scientific Research, France
4 Zhejiang University, China Max Planck Society, Germany
5 Peking University, China Stanford University, USA
6 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, China Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA
7 Tsinghua University, China Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres, Germany
8 Nanjing University, China The University of Tokyo, Japan
9 Max Planck Society, Germany University of Oxford, UK
10 Shanghai Jiao Tong University, China University of Cambridge, UK

Crafted by the author based on "Nature Index 2024 Research Leaders."

The "Science and Technology Indicators 2025," published in August 2025 by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology's National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, also indicates that China has reached a level in basic research nearly on par with the United States. As for total R&D expenditures, including both private and government budgets, the difference between the first-ranked United States and second-ranked China is minimal; given China's exponential growth rate, it is estimated that the two countries have already been on par since the beginning of 2025.

Total R&D Expenditures in Major Countries (Nominal Values Converted Using OECD Purchasing Power Parity Data)

"Science and Technology Indicators 2025"

Since 2010, China has led the way in government spending on science and technology. Article 59 of the revised Law of the People's Republic of China on Scientific and Technological Progress obligates the Chinese government to ensure that the growth rate of its science and technology budget exceeds that of national budget revenue, stipulating that the science and technology budget must be gradually increased as a percentage of GDP. Despite these efforts, China's total R&D expenditure as a percentage of GDP is 2.58%, lower than the 3.45% in the United States and 3.42% in Japan, suggesting significant room for growth. In contrast, Japan's R&D expenditure has stayed roughly flat; yet, in the field of science and technology, staying flat means a year-by-year decline.

Total Science and Technology Budget Converted Using OECD Purchasing Power Parity Data

"Science and Technology Indicators 2025"

The Soaring Number of Chinese Researchers and Their Papers

Research and development is undertaken by researchers, and in China, their numbers have seen remarkable growth. Over the 20 years from 2002 to 2022, China nearly quadrupled its number of researchers. This rapid expansion set the stage for President Xi Jinping's announcement at the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in October 2022: "China now ranks first in the world in total number of researchers." By 2023, their number exceeded 3 million, nearly double that of the United States. As an aside, the number of Chinese researchers decreased by about 400,000 between 2008 and 2009 due to the Chinese government adopting a stricter definition of a researcher, which aligns with the OECD's "Frascati Manual." Overall, China is now the world's largest supplier of highly skilled research talent.

Five-Year Trends in the Number of Researchers in USA, China, and Japan
USA China Japan
2002 1,041,534 810,525 611,220
2007 1,088,186 1,423,381 671,816
2012 1,178,702 1,404,017 656,651
2017 1,329,747 1,740.442 665,566
2022 1,681,676 2,637,193 704,502

Crafted by the author based on "Science and Technology Indicators 2025."

The results of scientific and technological research are published in the form of research papers. China surpassed the United States in the number of research papers in 2018 (according to Scopus), and the gap has been widening year by year. Looking at the actual numbers of research papers published, China nearly doubled the number of those published by the United States between 2021 and 2023. Japan had been second only to the United States until 2003, but is now in fifth place.

Some Japanese researchers mistakenly believe that Chinese research papers are "numerous," but their "quality" is not so high. The "quality" of a paper is represented by the "citation rate," or the number of times that a particular paper is cited in other researchers' papers. China also leads the way in the number of "top 10% most cited papers," which are acknowledged as high-quality academic outputs.

Total R&D Expenditure (2022) Published Papers (2021-2023 average) Top 10% Most Cited Papers (2021-2023 average)
1 USA China China
2 China USA USA
3 Japan India UK
4 Germany Germany India
5 South Korea Japan Germany
6 UK UK Italy
7 France Italy Australia
8 South Korea Canada
9 France South Korea
10 Spain Spain
11 Canada France
12 Brazil Iran
13 Australia Japan
14 Iran The Netherlands
15 Turkey Saudi Arabia

Crafted by the author based on "Science and Technology Indicators 2025" (Counting the number of papers using the fractional method).

Japan ranks third in the world in total R&D expenditure, fifth in the number of published research papers, and thirteenth in the number of high-quality papers, behind Iran. In stark contrast to China's rapid progress, Japan's relative decline is notable. Japan's ranking in the number of papers (5th) and in that of high-quality papers (13th) suggests that Japanese research papers are published abundantly but often of inferior quality. Japan's third-place ranking in total R&D expenditure and fifth-place ranking in the number of published research papers strikingly suggest that there is something wrong with the allocation of R&D funding and research efficiency. It is general knowledge that the number of published research papers, innovation index, and GDP are positively correlated with R&D investment; in this sense, Japan is in a critical situation.

Scientific and Technological Capabilities of the United States and China as Shown by Other Indicators

There are many other indicators for measuring a nation's scientific and technological capabilities, which are the sources of innovation. In terms of the number of researchers who authored and published high-quality papers, the United States leads with 2,507, more than 1,000 ahead of second-place China, 1,405. However, researchers involved in research activities in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia include many researchers of Chinese ancestry; therefore, the total number of Chinese-origin researchers in these countries would reach an impressive figure. Incidentally, Japan is outside the top 10 ranking.

The Number of Highly Cited Researchers
Country The Number of Researchers
1 USA 2507
2 China 1405
3 UK 563
4 Germany 332
5 Australia 313
6 Canada 206
7 The Netherlands 185
8 Hong Kong 134
9 France 126
10 Singapore 108

Clarivate : Highly Cited Researchers 2024

Other indicators include "World University Rankings," which focuses on top universities playing a major role in the global circulation of talent; the number of PCT applications, which reflects a nation's innovation capabilities; the performance and number of supercomputers produced and owned across the globe; the Unicorn Index, which tracks the performance of unlisted private companies valued at $1 billion or more; and the maturity of science and technology infrastructure, testified by, among other things, particle accelerators, telescopes, and undersea exploration vessels. Viewed from any of these indicators, China is now on par with or even surpasses the United States.

China's Breakthrough in Space Development

Space development capabilities are a barometer for measuring a country's scientific and technological strength; space development is the area where the scientific and technological conflict between the United States and China is fiercest. Space, once commended for peaceful uses, has now become a "war-fighting area" for security reasons, alongside cyberspace. Since the "Sputnik shock" of 1957, Russia (formerly the Soviet Union) has challenged US space dominance. In recent years, China has emerged as a close rival to the United States.

The United States and China are in a fierce competition to be the first to send a crew to the Moon in the 21st century. The United States landed Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin on the surface of the Moon during the Apollo 11 mission in July 1969. However, no astronauts have reached the Earth's only natural satellite since the Apollo 17 mission in 1972. In March 2019, then-Vice President Mike Pence launched the Artemis program at the National Space Council, stating, "The first woman and the next man on the Moon will both be American astronauts, launched by American rockets, from American soil." In November 2022, the United States successfully completed Artemis I, an uncrewed Moon-orbiting mission employing the "Orion" spacecraft and Space Launch System (SLS) rocket. Artemis II, a crewed Moon-orbiting mission, is scheduled for April 2026 and will be followed by Artemis III, a crewed lunar exploration mission, in or after 2027.

Space Launch System (SLS) Rocket ©NASA

China declared that it would send its astronauts to the Moon by 2030, and has been repeating ground tests with the "Chang Zheng" 10 rocket (a transport vehicle), the "Mengzhou" spacecraft, the "Lanyue" lunar lander, the "Wangyu" spacesuit, and the "Tansuo" lunar rover. In March 2025, Xinhua News Agency reported that the ground tests were "progressing smoothly." There is information circulating online that test flights of "Chang Zheng" 10 rockets Nos. 1-3 will be conducted in 2026, and a crewed lunar landing will be attempted in 2029 with Nos. 4-5.

China's "Lanyue" Lunar Lander ©CLEP

China has been steadily exploring the Moon with its "Chang'e" program launched in 2004. In January 2019, "Chang'e 4" made the first successful soft landing on the far side of the Moon in human space history. In May 2024, "Chang'e 6" successfully returned samples from the lunar far side.

"Chang'e 7," scheduled for launch in 2026, is expected to return samples from the lunar south pole and to build a power generation facility on the lunar surface. Scientists believe that there is a "permanently shadowed region" at the lunar south pole where sunlight never reaches. They also believe that large amounts of water exist there. Not only is water essential to life of future Moon explorers. Water can also be split into hydrogen and oxygen using nuclear energy, which can then be used as an energy source. This has attracted keen interest from not only the United States and China, but also Europe, Japan, India, and Russia.

Currently, NASA remains in turmoil due to drastic budget cuts and a 20% staff turnover under Trump 2.0, which has also put the Artemis program behind schedule. The outcome of the race to send the first manned mission to the Moon in the 21st century is extremely uncertain.

Mars Exploration: The Battleground of the US-China Space Race

In 2021, the US "Perseverance" probe and China's "Tianwen-1" probe achieved a soft landing on Mars almost simultaneously. Unlike the Moon, Mars has a thin atmosphere, which could enable humans to migrate to the planet in the distant future. This possibility has sparked growing interest. The "Perseverance" successfully flew the small helicopter "Ingenuity" and also conducted a successful experiment to extract oxygen from the Martian atmosphere. The "Tianwen" deployed the Mars rover "Zhurong" to analyze the Martian surface soil.

The next mission is a sample return from Mars. The "Perseverance" has already collected samples on Mars and sealed them in capsules. All that remains is to retrieve them, but the retrieval plan has yet to be decided. Meanwhile, China has announced that it will return samples with the "Tianwen-3" in 2030; China is likely to outpace the United States in Mars exploration.

The United States and China are also engaged in fierce competition in every aspect of space development: low-orbit satellite constellations (Starlink of SpaceX vs. China's "Guowang"); GNSS constellations (GPS vs. "BeiDou"), and space stations (ISS vs. China's "Tiangong"). China plans to launch a successor to its quantum science satellite "Mozi," which will give the country an unrivaled advantage in unbreakable quantum satellite communications.

Nuclear Power Development and Artificial Intelligence

In the field of nuclear power development, China has risen to the second place with 57 commercial nuclear power plants, overtaking France's 56. The United States holds onto its top spot, operating 93 commercial nuclear power plants. However, China has 34 plants under construction and plans to build more than 20 additional ones. China is poised to become the world's largest nuclear power by 2035. Notable is the domestic 1-million-kilowatt-class nuclear reactor, "Hualong One," which is gaining ground in the international nuclear market, mainly through exports to Belt and Road Initiative countries.

In the R&D of nuclear reactors, there is an ongoing shift toward "Generation IV reactors," including "very high-temperature reactors," "supercritical pressure light water reactors," "molten salt reactors," "gas-cooled fast reactors," "lead-cooled fast reactors," and "sodium-cooled fast reactors." In the United States, private sector development of small modular reactors (SMRs) is progressing rapidly. But there are no plans to build large reactors with a capacity of 1 million kilowatts.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has the profoundest impact on human society. Released in November 2022, OpenAI's ChatGPT has quickly permeated various aspects of human lives. At present, large-scale language models (LLMs) are flourishing on a large scale. China's DeepSeek and Alibaba's Qwen are following the lead of Pioneer LLMs such as OpenAI's GPT, Google's Gemini, and Meta's LLaMA. In particular, DeepSeek attracted global attention for achieving performance comparable to ChatGPT with low specifications, low cost, and a small number of GPUs, despite the geopolitical disadvantage of US semiconductor export restrictions. As of this writing, the most notable LLMs are Kimi K2 and Manus from the Chinese AI venture Moonshot AI. Changes in the field of AI are extremely rapid and intense.

According to the 2024 Nature Index AI, China ranks first among countries in terms of the total number of AI-related publications from 2019 to 2023, followed by the United States in second place. China also far surpasses the United States in AI-related patents. According to the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), a total of 54,000 patents of Generative AI were filed over the past decade: China led the way with 38,210 patents, followed by the United States with 6,276. Furthermore, according to Georgetown University's Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET), China is producing roughly half of all AI researchers. The United States and China are also competing in the field of "quantum science," which includes quantum computers, quantum communications, quantum sensors, and quantum materials.

When viewing sector by sector, China is on par with the United States in all areas except "medicine and biotechnology." Additionally, China holds a particular advantage in many of "emerging and foundational technologies" and "critical and foundational technologies," which are directly linked to national security.

The future of scientific and technological hegemony between the United States and China depends on Trump 2.0's science and technology policy. The Trump administration's budget proposal released in May 2025 was marked with significant reductions in science and technology-related budgets: a 56% year-on-year reduction for the National Science Foundation (NSF), a 37% cut for the National Institutes of Health (NIH), which supports medical research, and a 25% cut for NASA. As expected, the House and Senate Appropriations Committees submitted a bill requesting that the reduced budgets be restored to last year's levels, but the situation remains uncertain until the bill takes effect on October 1. If Trump's budget is implemented as proposed, China will likely overtake the United States also in the fields of medicine and biotechnology, where the United States currently holds an advantage.

Conclusion

Data clearly shows that China is on par with the United States in various fields of science and technology. In some areas, China is even surpassing the United States. I cannot predict whether a "Pax Sinica" will ever emerge. However, in this context, I believe that there are some essential elements for a country to achieve hegemony or leadership in science and technology: a "philosophy" for science and an "ideal" for science.

The achievements of science and technology are ultimately the assets of all humanity, because all the achievements of modern science are grounded upon the results of preceding research in the past. Scientific research should not serve the interests of a country striving to become a "superpower," but should be aimed at the "pursuit of truth" and the "welfare of humanity." I attended and listened to press conferences given by Japanese Nobel Prize winners on numerous occasions; they all unanimously emphasized the ultimate goals of science: "the importance of basic research" and "the pursuit of truth."

Examining China's current situation, which could be described as a "scientific revolution," reveals the remarkable achievements of the country and its researchers in various scientific and technological fields. However, when it comes to the question of whether China is appealing enough to attract top talent from around the world, the answer is a resounding no. I am concerned that even if the country offers favorable treatment and a favorable research environment to an invited foreign researcher, these factors alone are not enough to dispel concerns such as whether "freedom of research" will be guaranteed under the "Overall National Security Outlook," whether research content and actions will be subject to surveillance, and whether research results will be used for China's national security purposes under the "military-civil fusion" strategy.

To attract world-class talent, isn't it essential for China to become a respected scientific and technological power?

(Haruo Kurasawa, Science Journalist)

Sources

Reference

Nagayasu Toyoda, The Crisis of a Science-Based Nation: Japan's Stalling Research Capabilities, Toyo Keizai Shinposha, 2019.

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